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Everything posted by Eminor3rd
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TBH, it might as well be any of these guys. Hahn will take a flyer on the ones the staff likes the best and hopefully they'll work out better than they did this year.
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QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 2, 2014 -> 02:07 PM) Some of their high-quality former staffers have been pilfered by MLB teams...another reason. I think Callis has also gotten a little bit distracted by all of his TV work, and the majority of his questions are from fans of teams like the Cubs, Red Sox and Yankees...and then, finally, the White Sox system has been down for so long it's taking time for it to be taken seriously again. Until someone like Ravelo ends up producing (similar to a Gillaspie) at the major league level, there's still going to be that natural skepticism about our hitting prospects. Right, but as other have pointed out, there's just not a single argument that Ravelo is below Barnum. It really seems like he just doesn't even know about Ravelo, not that he's skeptical about him. I know it's hard to keep up on these guys, but if you're MLBAM's official "prospect guy," you gotta find a way.
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 2, 2014 -> 04:03 PM) Yeah, i have never understood that. If Q and Danks started the first 2 games of a series, do people really believe that give a team a better shot of getting to Sale if he is pitching game 3? These guys have different stuff, different release points. If you have 5 solid starters and the all are lefty or all are righty, you are ahead of most. I can see how it might be theoretically "nice to have," but I can't imagine any legitimate component of the roster that wouldn't be a higher priority.
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QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 2, 2014 -> 01:05 PM) Butler is done. Age hit him and he has no HR power and like you said is very slow. And if he's only 6-8 million, he'll stay in KC for that.
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QUOTE (Lillian @ Aug 2, 2014 -> 01:45 PM) Today at 1:31 PM The two biggest needs for the Sox next year are: 1) A middle of the order, left handed power bat, to protect Abreu. Without that protection, opposing teams would simply neutralize Jose's bat, by going around him. 2) A right handed starting pitcher, to balance the rotation, which is dominated by southpaws. It still seems unlikely that the Sox would keep a rotation consisting of the top 4 starters all being left handed. They will need at least a #2, or #3 to balance Sale, Quintana and Rodon. Even if Danks is not gone, a RHP has to be in front of his spot in the rotation. There's absolutely no way that making the rotation less left-handed is the second biggest need for this team.
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Mayo is consistently terrible
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QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 04:58 PM) That's just flat-out wrong. I've said earlier that Saladino is cromulent at SS and probably above average elsewhere. He can also pinch-run. The point is that his bat is so much better than Leury that even if you think Leury edges him on defence (probably) and speed (definitely), the bat more than makes up for it. There's just no way to hit with a 20 wRC+ at the majors and provide positive value. Sure there is! You just have to be a pitcher. Hey, wait.... Leury pitched once!
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He's definitely worth a claim, IMO.
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QUOTE (Jake @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 02:57 PM) Eminor3d, when you say SS is the position our system is most likely to be able to replace...are you intentionally leaving out 2B? Because it's 2B Yeah, you're right. I guess I mean "middle infield." I'd rather replace Beckham than Alexei, but Alexei is the subject because he can actually be traded.
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Two reasons: 1. Your team sucks and you cannot create talent out of thin air. You need to trade assets to get assets back. 2. There is no other position on the team where we have a better chance of someone working in our system as soon as next year So are you going to pretend that guys don't tend to get worse as they approach their mid-30's? What are you even talking about here? I said the team isn't good enough to make the playoffs with him now, meaning they need to think about the future.
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 12:58 PM) Go back to your posts 2 years ago and last year. There is no way you thought he would be anywhere near as valuable this year. He doesn't have to go. There aren't a ton of guys the White Sox have ready to try the position. Face it, if the Sox thought Semien was a SS, he'd be playing SS everyday. If they thought Sanchez was a SS, he wouldn't have been playing 2B the past few years. Odds are very long either is an everyday calibur major league SS. The White Sox have basically conceded that. I mean I'm not going to go try to find posts from two years ago, but I know how I've always felt about him, and if I was advocating moving him, it was for the same reason as now, which is (1) guys that are 32 tend to begin getting worse and (2) our team is not good enough to get to the playoffs even with his contribution now. It's very simple, and really hardly personal to Alexei at all.
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 02:13 PM) Yes, but I'm not suggesting calling guys up because they are hot. I am suggesting when you have the luxury of not having to call someone up who you are going to be calling up to carefully pick the time to call them up. When they aren't going well is not the best time to call them up. I mentioned Viciedo previously. He had already been with the White Sox and was obviously going to be back at some point. The Sox needed offense and he was on a crazy streak in Charlotte. They let him play it out. Eventually they called him up when he was struggling, and he struggled. He might have struggled anyway, but we all know when Tank is hot, he is hot. When you have the luxury to decide when, and often times you do not, do so when it makes sense. Maybe they have been hot for 4 days and that was how long it was going to last anyway, but so what, it's better than thinking they haven't hit in a week but they are due so bring them up to the next level. Seems to me if you are a candidate to be called up, there really is nothing major the organization is waiting for. It's a game of failure. It's hard enough to hit just getting called up. Semien also has to see his average up on scoreboards from what he did earlier. He's probably going to be pressing. I think he would be far better off coming up and using the "I've been hot and deserve this" vs. "they want to see what I can do". Especially when his first AB back he won't be able to avoid .218 posted everywhere in the stadium. I can get down with this
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 01:58 PM) A hot hand suggests you have figured things out. When you are slumping, there are problems. That's what I don't understand. That's where the disconnect is. I define "hot hand" and "figuring things out" as different things. Like, I'm a bad basketball player, but I play anyway because it's fun. Even though I'm bad, sometimes everything just clicks and I can bury shots from the perimeter for a while. It isn't just luck; I can feel my body in sync and it seems so simple to just put the ball in the basket. But it doesn't last -- that's what happens when I'm at my absolute best, but my physique hasn't improved, my mechanics haven't improved. I'm jsut "on." Everyone that plays long enough will be "on" from time to time. It's one of the beautiful and unpredictable things about sports. Conversely, I had a huge breakthrough when I was about fifteen and playing in a Fall Instructional Baseball league. I was in the cage with my coach and trying to get myself out of a slump wondering why I was barrelling everything up in practice but I couldn't make solid contact in the game. Then it hit me: the difference was that I was EXPECTING to hit every pitch in the cage, but I was wasting time evaluating the pitch before deciding to swing in the game. A conundrum. In my head then, I just switched it around: when seeing a pitch rather than deciding if it was good enough to swing at, I started deciding if it was good enough to TAKE. When the pitcher released the ball, I was expecting to hit that ball until I noticed something that proved otherwise. This let me get my mechanics in line quickly and allowed me to react to location much faster. It was a breakthrough and I immediately began to hit way better. That, to me, was an example of "figuring it out." I changed something that allowed my average performance level to rise. I could stiil get "hot" or "cold," but the mean of those performances changed because my skill level changed.
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 01:53 PM) If all this information that none of us are privy to is needed for a call up, why are you just arguing with my view and not the others who want him called up? The White Sox haven't called him up. Wouldn't that suggest this information we cannot possibly have is saying don't call him up? I picked your post because I wanted to argue the point of using a hot or cold hand to decide. I have no opinion on whether or not he's ready.
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QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 01:49 PM) We'll agree to disagree because while you might not be able to predict the length of hot streaks, I do think there is a greater probability of a minor league callup experiencing immediate success at the major league level if he is coming in hot and confidence is high compared to struggling and confidence low. I'm with you on the confidence component, but as I explained in the post above, the success that comes before a promotion needs to borne of real change, NOT a hot hand. Success and confidence will accompany both real change and a hot hand, but only the former is a good recipe for continued success after a promotion.
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 01:43 PM) No you can't. But generally if you are banking on someone's slump ending because they are being promoted to the major leagues, you are going to be dissappointed. Guys generally do get called up when they are going well. Right, because good performance also correlates with "figuring something out." I'm just saying there isn't value to a callup just because of a hot hand. You need more information than any of us are privy to in order to identify if a player has taken a stride forward versus just "seeing the ball well." I would have some killer hot streaks in Legion too, but there weren't any D1 colleges making recruiting calls because anyone could see that I was undersized and unathletic. A longer look would reveal that I was guessing right on fastballs a lot and as soon as I saw anything resembling a slider, I was fooled every time. I never figured the slider out, though I did have some streaks where I was able to track it enough to shank a few in. Those streaks weren't predictive because they weren't the result of any change I was making.
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8/1 Game Thread- Sox vs Twins 7:10 PM CT
Eminor3rd replied to Jose Abreu's topic in 2014 Season in Review
QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 11:53 AM) It'll be literally impossible for us to lose this game. Our chances of winning are actually over 100% Especially now that they lost Sam Fuld -
QUOTE (JUSTgottaBELIEVE @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 11:52 AM) Anybody that's played the game beyond little league would disagree with this. Seriously. The mental/confidence aspect of hitting is huge. When you're going well and confidence level is high, you truly are seeing the ball better. When I was in a funk, I knew I wasn't seeing the ball well and more often than not knew I was in for a rough game at the plate. I often knew this during BP prior to the game. The mental component of this game is very important, especially when it comes to hitting. Just take a look at Flowers right now. Sometimes you change one thing (start wearing glasses), have success, and you start to attribute this change to your success (increased confidence) even if it didn't. Now maybe the glasses really have improved his vision and his success is a direct result of this physical change but more than likely it just comes down to his increased confidence level resulting from the success he experienced when he started wearing the glasses. I think we would all agree that there is a greater probability Flowers gets a hit in his next at-bat today than any at-bat in June or the first week in July. It sounds silly but there's a reason hitting is so cyclical and guys often experience extended hot/cold stretches. This isn't coincidence or as simple as saying his BABIP is unusually high/low through these stretches. The numbers guys like to think it is but typically there is a reason for stretches in which a hitter experiences a low/high BABIP and it's not just a matter of luck. I played a lot of baseball, all the way through American Legion, and I'm NOT arguing that you don't feel better sometimes than others. I AM arguing that we cannot predict the length and continuation of these "hot streaks." They have random lengths and random endings. So it doesn't help us to say "call him up while he's hot" because it's just as likley that his hotness would end that very day as it is that it would continue for one day or two days or three days. Similarly, you could call a guy up when he's cold and he could start a hot streak the very next day. If you do truly CHANGE something, it isn't a hot streak, it's a breakout; a revelation. And you've set a new level of performance and will now have hot and cold streaks based on that new level. We can't really tell the difference by reading box scores -- we need the coaching staff to say "Yes, I told him to change his approach. He has now succeeded in that and is seeing succes as a result. He is ready to take this approach to the next level."
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QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 12:00 PM) I remember writing that Hahn had the easy part of the rebuild done. He traded pieces that had value for other younger pieces that had value. The hard part was always going to be finishing the job. Hahn badly needed Beckham to show he had value , same goes for Paulino, De Aza, Viciedo and Davidson but they all failed and he couldn't trade any value without just creating another hole. QFT
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 12:50 PM) You have been saying he is a declining asset for a couple years. Eventually you will be correct, but he's a nice guy to have around now. Again you misunderstand and make it sound like I have been falsely saying he's bad for years, which is not true. I love Alexei and have always been a champion for him. He is good now, will be declining/have declined when we really need to have solid production from SS, in a year or two. Since we have a ton of guys ready to try the position, he has to go. If for no other reason than we need to get his replacement some ABs and development time. Also because we still have a lot of holes to fill and have to move someone to get talent back.
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QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 12:46 PM) Sgt Slaughter is all skiunny now though. He's also Canadian. He could be your manager, that's fine, I will find Captain Lou Albano if he isn't dead yet (is he dead?) and he will have a parrot & Marty & I will use this parrot to kick your asses in the script! He told me he was from Minnesota, so... wait, yeah I guess that's Canada. He is still very large, though.
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Any potential bad contract swaps out there for Danks?
Eminor3rd replied to The Ultimate Champion's topic in Pale Hose Talk
We don't want Papelbon -- he's a total jerk and would probably block the trade anyway. Marlon Byrd actually has value, Ruben Amaro is clinically insane, and Byrd said he'll only allow a trade is his option is exercised. There's Ethier, but we need a bad pitcher more than bad OF. -
QUOTE (raBBit @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 12:38 PM) Amazing that people pencil in Viciedo and Flowers again but give up Ramirez like he's trash. Alexei's value won't be fully understood until he's gone. Alexei isn't trash. He's a declining asset that has trade value and he plays the position the we're deepest in in the upper minors. He's a perfect candidate to be traded.
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QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Aug 1, 2014 -> 12:38 PM) Why do you have to say these things? Why? If Marty34 ever comes back here then he & I will form a tag team & will fight you guys (you & wite) for real pro-wrestling style and you guys will have to lose it will be in the script. I met Sgt. Slaughter last night at our game and he was nice and I bet he would help us! He is a big man and I bet he would stand up for the rights for other big men to play shortstop!
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I don't see why we can't give Dunn a qualifying offer and then try HIM at shortstop.