Eminor3rd

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 1, 2014 -> 10:53 AM) One last time, this is what I was responding to: You are also talking about guys that are the exception to the rule. No one is saying that the Sox should cut bait with Viciedo or give him away for peanuts or stop playing him all together, but I don't think I've ever seen this much support for a guy who has never shown anything but flashes. Not trade value, support. I don't know what Viciedo's trade value is, nor do I care. I still think he can be a very good hitter. He had a real horrible streak. Eventually he will get hot again. I'm telling you that the "support" that wite is referring to is the "support" that has been given, in this thread, regarding Viciedo's trade value. Specifically that he should have some because of the fact that he might be a flukey late breakout. That is what "this much support" means here. That is the context of the conversation. That is why Felipe Paulino does not belong here.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 1, 2014 -> 10:31 AM) You were the one who called out the Viciedo supporters. Not me. I just pointed out if that is irrational, you also give some irrational support. As a guy who had substantial trade value, not a guy who does or doesn't have some prayer of being good ever. I don't know how you don't see the difference.

To me, it just comes down to whether or not he can get both R and L handed batters out. So far, it looks like there's definitely a platoon split: http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?p...=P&season=0

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 1, 2014 -> 10:25 AM) I don't think that is true at all. I am certain Hahn wouldn't have traded Viciedo for Franklin. Ok, well I'm just telling you what was written over the offseason. I'm not going vouch for the validity of Jon Heyman or whoever it was that said these things.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 1, 2014 -> 10:26 AM) It is the same thing. I am not talking trade value. He mentioned support based on flashes. That is exactly what his support for Paulino was based on. When you actually put some logic into the equation, at the very least you would have to admit Dayan Viciedo putting up great numbers is at least as good of a bet than Felipe Paulino coming into 2014. If you're not talking trade value, then you're ignoring the conversation. There are outcomes between "guy sucks" and "guy is a superstar," and understanding that is crucial to understanding what we're talking about.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 1, 2014 -> 09:19 AM) When was Ackley offered for Viciedo? I think it was during the winter meetings that the rumor came out and was pretty much confirmed by other sources. Word was that JZ called Hahn and made the offer of Ackley for Viciedo, and Hahn countered with Viciedo for Franklin instead, but JZ didn't respond.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 1, 2014 -> 09:17 AM) Support for flashes was what I was responding to. You gave support for flashes even after a couple of surgeries and also suggested not only would he be good, but perhaps even better than ever. Nevermind he had his first flash of success when he was 27 years old. So really if you are going to rip people for supporting Viciedo, because at 25 he has only showed flashes, it really doesn't make sense. That's not the same thing at all. Wite was excited because we got a guy for nothing, thought he might be better than he had been in the past. Posters here are suggesting that now that DV has been bad, we should be able to trade him for good prospects. If it was the same thing, wite would be saying we should trade Felipe Paulino for prospects instead of DFA'ing him.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jul 1, 2014 -> 08:23 AM) But yet, people insist that Dustin Ackley, a year older and a career OPS of a mighty .659 has real value. And Justin Smoak - my gosh, even though he is 3 years older and has a career OBS 35 points below Viciedo, he's a real talent! BTW, Viciedo has a gun. Is that calculated in these defensive metrics? And while most players don't turn their lights on at 26 or 27, some do. A late blooming Cub almost pitched a NH the other night and is having a great year; And then there is Jose Bautista, who had a Viciedo like career until he turned 29. Or Carlos Gomez who arose from the dead at 27. Who are these people suggesting that Ackley and Smoak have value? JZ offered Ackley for DV in the offseason and Hahn turned it down. Dayan Viciedo COULD turn it around, and I hope he does, but it is NOT likely. You can dig and find 3-5 example of late bloomers recently, and I could look at a roster and find hundreds that haven't. So don't expect someone to trade a younger prospect who is more likely to be good. That's all I'm saying.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 09:52 PM) http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/stats/_/id/5...win-encarnacion Encarnacion went from his rookie year through 2011 (and these were years when power was up) hitting mostly in the low 700ish range for OPS. He played 3B at that time, but he was terrible at that position, and eventually moved to 1B/DH. There's also the example of Jose Bautista, who had a very solid rookie year, almost fell entirely off the map and then recovered. Domonic Brown...Pedro Alvarez, etc. No guarantees, but Encarnacion and Viciedo have been compared a lot. He's definitely worth SOMETHING to someone. Yeah, and people win the lottery every now and then too

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 06:53 PM) Not saying he should be worth a ton, but you're clearly ignoring his power potential in a baseball environment where power is at a premium. Given that he's only 25 years old and has shown some improvement in his plate discipline this year, I think at least a couple teams would have interest in him if the price was right, regardless of how his numbers look on paper. I have no doubt someone would give him a shot, but I really think we're deluding ourselves if we think we're going to get anything exciting back. He can't help anyone right now, and a guy who's had 1500 PA of ML failure is much less likely to help a team LATER than the prospect we would hope they'd give up.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 03:40 PM) Well, Franklin's .363 OPS this season probably hasn't instilled the Mariners with much confidence either. On paper, Viciedo is way too much. They found a replacement anyway: he has .609 OPS and .277 OBP. They should be desperate. Viciedo for Franklin. Alexei for quality prospects. Alexei is 6th in OPS in SS. His salary is probably higher than most. What's he worth? Except Viciedo is 2 years and over 1,000 PA older. He's a bad defense, 96 wRC+ left fielder, lol. That's not worth anything on paper.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 04:31 PM) Franklin Word is that the Mariners turned down that exact offer in the offseason. I don't think Viciedo has done anything in the meantime to change their minds.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 03:24 PM) I don't think so. If you have a catcher who is good with the glove (both defensively and framing wise) while being able to talk to pitchers and throw guys out, anything you get offensively is a bonus. Castro has pretty well proven capable of the former and has shown potential (and produced to some extent as well) with the latter. That's where I'm at, too. I'm assuming that he isn't going to repeat his 130 wRC+ from last year ever again. I'm totally, completely fine with 100 wRC+ with plus defense.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 03:03 PM) I plead ignorance on his defense (I thought it was passable when watching live), but over 103 Major League games he is a .287/.323/.411 hitter. That's frankly amazing considering his age and how raw his approach at the plate is. The injury is a huge set back, I admit, but in the off-season I completely understand Hahn not being willing to discuss him in a deal for Castro. But when you say, "for his age," what you're really saying is that he is likely to improve -- which makes perfect sense in most cases. I'm saying that given how "raw" his approach is, one must wonder why it hasn't improved much already. He is a 23 year old who hits like a 19 year old. I'm not saying he won't or can't improve, but that we shouldn't assume that he necessarily will. Throw in the shoulder injury, and just IMO, there's enough uncertainty there for me to move him for a C.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 12:37 PM) Then you're talking about finding two corner outfield bats and a LH/DH. Yes, I am cognizant of the fact that catching is extremely difficult to develop. It seems no matter what/who we trade, let's say Alexei Ramirez, it opens up another gaping hole somewhere else in the major league line-up. QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 12:42 PM) I'm not saying I wouldn't love to have Castro, but not for Garcia. It all depends on how he responses to his injury, of course, but I am bullish on him and his future contributions. Bear it mind the kid just turned 23, he's still developing. I'd just much rather be scrambling to find a corner OF than scrambling to find a C. As far as Avi goes, I understand that I'm lower on him than anyone else on the board, but the reality is that he has a LOT to learn both offensively AND defensively, and it just isn't a given that he will. When you consider how completely clueless he's look on both sides of the ball, all of a sudden 23 doesn't seem so young. Talent in spades, no doubt. But he still has to learn to play.

QUOTE (southside hitman @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 12:30 PM) The guy who is currently hitting .218/.297/.363? And before you say small sample size, he's a career .247/.324/.405 major league hitter. Not saying he doesn't have potential, but for Avi? Injured or not, no freakin way. I'd do it in a second IF Castro came with more team control. He's reputed to be an excellent defender who is developing into one of the best pitch framers in the league. Just one year removed from a 130 wRC+, and two removed from a 100 wRC+. If he gave us 100 going forward with his defense, I'd be thrilled to give up Avi. But he'd have to agree to an extension we liked.

Hickory, we're back to talking about draft picks! No news on Rodon though.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 12:10 PM) Trading Alexei for anything less than a Top 50 prospect who is within a year of contributing at the major league level would be insane. I'd move him for a 50-100 guy + two live arms and feel great about it. Then I'd miss him But I'd still feel good about the deal.

Dude this is awesome.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 11:33 AM) Trade Viciedo for that young Seattle SS who can't hit. Then trade Alexei for some of their young A and AA pitchers....don't know who, but I'm sure they have some - they always do. I watched their game the other night and they have some guy in the pen with electric stuff and an ERA of around 7...looked like a good "coop can fix 'em" candidate. Brad Miller? I think he's been better lately.

Interesting observation. What's his BABIP/xBABIP at home? The K/BB rates are surprisingly similar considering the huge disparity in production.

I personally do have a sense of urgency to move Alexei. I know that I'll be sad when I realize we've taken his defense for granted, but he's never going to be more valuable than he is this year, he's likely to start losing a step pretty soon, and if this crop of prospects is going to yield anything, it's going to have to net us a MI or two. I'm not thrilled with the AAA crop necessarily, but we've gotta see if Semien or Sanchez can play SS because we need to acquire someone else if they can't. He may defy time, but Alexei isn't likely to be an above average contributor in a few years.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Jun 30, 2014 -> 01:16 AM) I can not stand mediocrity. I know we all went over this topic last season around this time as well, but I would rather this team tank the rest of the way, or dominate the rest of the way. I don't want to see a midround draft pick next June. I'd like to see the team take a substantial step for ward this year so that I can go into the offseason feeling confident about the move that were made and looking forward to adding more talent for 2015. This represents a much more likely road to success than two or three consecutive 90-100 loss seasons all of a sudden turning into a 90-100 wins one year.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 28, 2014 -> 07:33 PM) No, it's that. There is always failure in the pen. It's when it happens over time and nobody is effective is the only time that it comes into play. I've never heard an individual player use it as an excuse when he pitched poorly. you only see it when the entire pen is ineffective and no one has that role. It's not an excuse for failure individually as frequently you have players moved in an out. It's just that when you have effective bullpens they need to have confidence in their role. When everyone is pitching poorly there is no confidence anywhere. Do you have confidence and go pitch well or do you have to pitch well before you have confidence. There is a little of both to make an effective pitcher and an effective staff. I haven't heard the players say it either, but it comes up around here constantly NOT as a byproduct (as you described), but as some sort of solution. Such as caulfield's post that spawned my original tantrum: QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jun 28, 2014 -> 09:46 AM) We're on our fourth closer of the season already, essentially. Jones, Lindstrom, Belisario and now ??? (Guerra/Petricka). If you go with the "hot hand," how many blown saves do they get to prove they're not the hot hand? There's just no way that this strategy, with the talent we have remaining in our pen (or lack thereof), is going to yield anything close to an 80-85% save conversion rate. Who would even be the "hot hand" now? Petricka? Putnam? Guerra? They each have their own unique set of pro's and con's. The ONLY time the pen was working well was when Putnam knew he was the 7th inning guy, Belisario 8th and Lindstrom 9th. If you keep changing their roles every night, it just won't work very effectively. Bullpens need to have consistency and established roles...defined expectations. The solution to our bullpen issues is to have better players, not to find a mystical order in which to line our current players up.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 28, 2014 -> 06:00 PM) You will only see this when the bullpen is ineffective. An effective bullpen will have the defined roles. With the way they are pitching now it doesn't matter what you do. Right, because they're getting people out. When they fail though, "well I need a defined role" isn't an excuse. That's my point. You can't have a defined role when you can't be relied upon.