Eminor3rd

QUOTE (Jake @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 08:47 AM) My gut: 1. Rodon 2. Kolek 3. Nola 4. Aiken Our draft board?

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 07:25 AM) If they took Rodon, and then failed to sign him for slot, I would have no choice but to flip over a table and four chairs. Lol me too. But I think they'd sign him. He's seen his stock plummet over the course of a year, he won't risk it to be put in a position with even less leverage next year.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 03:14 PM) I just think it's kind of sad that all that money that's gone to Dunn could have gone to Mark. Arguably having a stud like him in the rotation would have kept the Sox in contention during this "rebuilding." All Dunn has provided is ... well, I won't go into that again. Dunn had a chance to propel the franchise into the playoffs, Mark was a declining mid-rotation starter. It's extremely easy to see why those moves were made. That they didn't work out doesn't change the validity of the decisions. There was ALWAYS a chance they'd work out or not work out, and I'd prefer my team go for the win every time in that situation. The immediate, worst-case scenario collapse of Dunn's career was far less likely an outcome than that of him continuing his career production along a normal trajectory. It also needs to be noted that Buerhle's success right now is almost entirely a result of an extremely flukey HR/FB rate. I'm not saying that HR/FB is all "luck," but his current rate isn't sustainable by anyone ever and it's almost 10% lower than his career level. This is another situation (like Flowers and his BABIP) where unless you think he's changed something this year that's made him the best of alltime at HR prevention, you have to acknowledge that it is not going to last and very likely would not have occurred under different circumstances.

QUOTE (oldsox @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 05:39 PM) I think Hawkins had Wite at the back flip. I think Hawkins had wite at the "young for his level and showing marked improvement." Seriously, I've NEVER seen so many people jump off a bandwagon so fast. I can't even see the argument -- underaged prospect struggles in midst of very aggressive promotion, immediately labelled bust. Repeats level, still young for it, shows substantial improvement, still a bust.

QUOTE (oneofthemikes @ Jun 4, 2014 -> 07:06 AM) No Rodon even if he's available? Because of signability issues, delivery issues, both, neither? If they took Nola over Rodon, I would have no choice but to actually flip a table.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 05:23 PM) Like it or not though, this is the core and if it isn't Sale goes on the market. Lol, no he doesn't. Sale is 25 and under contract for like 6 years. They will be encouraged by the marked improvement in the team's performance year over year, and they will continue to add talent.

There's no doubt Hawk is among the most well-known announcers -- but he's almost universally hated and/or mocked.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 09:37 PM) He was really tough on him actually but he did make one comment to defend him. Vin Scully is truly awful. Turn him off. Wow, really? Scully is one of the few popular things I find NOT to be overrated, lol. It's a really refreshing pace, I think. And his voice is great, and he always seems to be in a good mood.

QUOTE (Soxfest @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 09:28 PM) Hawk will not shut up now for GB.............he has to get in the standard line GB and Cano best in AL for the 200th time this year. Bias that hard cheapens the experience. What was his excuse last night? I had it on Vin Scully.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 01:01 PM) Well now, who does that sound just like? Every positional prospect in the entire system.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 01:01 PM) I agree, OBP was just the example that you said was correlated to winning. However, it applies to everything he uses as well. He uses data based on all of the games played. Which as I stated before includes the poorer teams and pitchers. It works in the regular season but it is not the same sample that occurs during the post season. This is only the good teams or players This is why I think it doesn't necessarily apply to being successful in the post-season. edit: you could look at the players in a retrospective study and see how they do against only the top 20 pitchers or so. This may tell you more about the validity of the process, if post season success is your goal. That would indeed be an interesting study. I'd guess it would mirror that of most players. It seems to me that only the very elite are hitting well against high end pitching. But that could be enough of a difference that the $200m spenders could have a conceivable advantage.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Jun 3, 2014 -> 11:35 AM) It's correlated to winning against all teams and pitchers including the bad to average ones. If you take away the bad to average pitchers who give up more walk and hits the average hitter will not fair as well. However, the highly talented player has a better chance. This is what happens in the playoffs. It doesn't always workout of course as all players have bad games and series. However, the Oakland practice of less talented players but with the high OBP and such has a lesser chance to succeed than the talented player. Now in Oakland Beane needs to do this a with his payroll. He needs to take these chances and make the team look good during the season to maximize his earnings from the fan base. This doesn't mean that all teams should adopt this model that do not have his same limitations. The Beane model isn't necessarily about OBP, though, it's about punting skills that the market values and hoarding skills that the market ignores. It's about accepting (and finding a way to mitigate) a player's flaws for the sake of acquiring his strengths at a discount. That OBP happened to be undervalued when Moneyball was written was just coincidence.

Every team is worse against good player than they are against bad players. The "OBP only works in large samples" thing is totally bonkers -- OBP is strongly correlated with winning, all the good teams have good OBP no matter how they're built. There isn't anything remotely close to enough data to make any conclusion about the "Oakland way" working or not working in the postseason. There are lots of hypotheses, and people should feel free to cling to them, but they should also know that there aren't facts to back those hypotheses up.

Are you people seriously watching games and looking at your watch wishing it was over 20 minutes sooner?

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jun 2, 2014 -> 02:42 PM) They have to offer the pick at least 90% of the slot value of the pick or they lose the pick and do not receive compensation. With the 39th pick, there is no guarantee that the guy will sign for what you offer as you have no idea who is still going to be around and therefore it is a infinitely more difficult to work out a pre-draft underslot deal. So they saved a $1M and received a RP while they were at it. Interesting. Only the Marlins would expose that rule.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jun 2, 2014 -> 12:39 PM) The problem is that the Marlins probably look at the trade as a way to save money. They already had one comp pick and would have had to at least offer $1.3M to avoid losing this pick. They had the largest bonus pool but may not have the financial flexibility to sign all the picks. It would be interesting to know if the Pirates picked up any of the $300K owed to Morris. That doesn't make any sense -- if they wanted to save money, all they'd need to do is draft underslot. Gives them flexibility to sign their first rounder, at least.

Am I the only one here who thinks baseball is perfectly watchable as it is?

Preferring position players greatly over pitchers, sure. Preferring Michael Wacha over Chris Sale... wat

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jun 2, 2014 -> 01:36 PM) Who wouldn't we have given up from our pen for the 39th pick? Webb and that's it? Yeah that deal is just strange. Unbelievable that that was the best they could have done.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jun 2, 2014 -> 12:59 PM) Neither of those guys will get you a comp pick, not a chance. You need to talk more Sanchez to even be in that discussion, and I'm not sure even that would get it done. I would have agreed with you until the Marlins JUST traded a random 27-year old reliever with 5 K/9 for one. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/06/marl...om-pirates.html Errr: other way around. Marlins just GOT that guy for one.

QUOTE (flavum @ Jun 2, 2014 -> 11:40 AM) Well, maybe http://mlb.mlb.com/news/boxscore.jsp?gid=2...lanmlb_chamlb_1 Yeah, perhaps he saw it there. But the point remains. I hope he doesn't try to go out and go aggro to "prove something" his first game back against arguably the best of all pitchers.

TV has become a bigger part of following the team. Teams are getting bigger TV contracts as a result. Things are not as bad as they seem, IMO. I think the 40k regular season crowd is obsolete because they're watching form home.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jun 2, 2014 -> 12:16 PM) Quintana was absolutely ridiculous those first couple months of 2012. I'm predicting Abreu will strike out in four or less pitches in his first AB. I want to see Abreu take a bunch of pitches in his first AB, even if it ends in a K. He's never seen a curveball like this one; he's not likely going to be able to swing the rust off so easily. Could mess with his timing.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Jun 2, 2014 -> 10:02 AM) Presuming Aiken and Rodon are off the board, who would people prefer: Kolek at slot, Nola a bit under slot, or someone else? I'd be leaning towards Nola. I'd prefer Kolek. That Thorburn article on BP the other day really sold me on his mechanics, which makes me feel better about his future.

We should all expect Kolek, IMO.