Eminor3rd

I just don't see how you roll the dice on an injury guy at #3 when that guy wasn't even clearly better than a healthy guy that's also available there.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ May 29, 2014 -> 11:06 AM) So what? You build your team expecting to catch lightning in a bottle? There are outliers and exceptions, but it's retarded to build your team expecting that to happen. I loathe when people use outliers as examples. It's such poor logic? Is there another Jenks? Montas doesn't have 4 elite pitches. I agree with your logic regarding outliers, but I think the reality is that there are very few relievers that can be relied on to produce stable results for more than a couple years. To some degree, the art of building a bullpen is lightning in a bottle every year.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ May 29, 2014 -> 11:01 AM) Jimenez at 3y/$39M is a more than reasonable risk looking at these pitchers. Well, it was 4y/$50m and he hasn't pitched any better than Andre Rienzo. I think it's safe to say that there are many pitchers on that list who can be expected to pitch as well as Andre Rienzo and can be had for 4y/$50m.

QUOTE (TRU @ May 29, 2014 -> 10:20 AM) Maybe, but can that be confirmed? You think they liked Paulino over Reinzo as 5th starter? That would have to be true if the intention was for Paulino to be in Charlotte but it didnt work out that way. Nah, can't confirm it, but given that it happened so early in the offseason, I think it's a fairly safe bet that they didn't think, "okay, that's it. No more need for pitching."

I almost want to give Quintana an A. From a DIPS/FIP/fWAR perspective, he's actually on pace to have a BETTER season than last year. I truly thought last year was his peak, but that may not be the case.

QUOTE (TRU @ May 29, 2014 -> 10:13 AM) You're both right and wrong. Signing anyone is technically a "gamble". Signing Paulino wasn't a "Were going to sign this guy, send him to Charlotte, and maybe hit lighting in a bottle." gamble. He was a "This guy is a part of our major league rotation." gamble. Yuck. I don't think that's true. I think they signed Paulino to be the former, and then failed to put together enough depth to avoid him being in the rotation. That's where the criticism belongs, IMO.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 29, 2014 -> 09:57 AM) The scout I read was quoted as saying the draft was stronger than last year, but not that great and high school heavy. Maybe Jason Parks is correct and the Sox will get a star with the second round pick and I will be the biggest fool ever to walk the face of the earth. I thought they should surrender the second round pick. Signing those players in the future will cost a 1st rounder. Yeah, draft pick comp is going to be pretty interesting going forward. There's a ton of reason to believe it'll be reworked significantly in the next CBA, but considering all the onus for change will come from the Player's Association, I'd be shocked if the cost didn't end up being LESS to the signing team in order to avoid stripping leverage from the free agents. If I had to guess, I'd say the next iteration will keep the comp pick for the QO team but remove the lost pick from the signing team. Who knows though.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ May 29, 2014 -> 09:52 AM) Can Viciedo even be effective as a DH/1B? Or Davidson, for that matter. If he can keep up a 117 wRC+, then yes. It won't be elite, or even star level, but it'll work.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 29, 2014 -> 09:48 AM) The draft isn't supposed to be all that strong, and is high school heavy. I got in trouble for pointing out taking a HS kid in the second round, chances are he won't be able to help you , if at all, until 2019 or 2020. I just listened to Jason Parks say this is a "very deep draft" on a podcast last night. QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 29, 2014 -> 09:48 AM) They gave up a first rounder for Dunn. Does that make you think they should do it again?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 29, 2014 -> 09:32 AM) Quintana and Sale are the only Sox starters with a lower xFIP than Jimenez this season. That doesn't make it a good idea to pay a below average starter $50m. QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 29, 2014 -> 09:32 AM) That doesn't sound like ruining the team's ability to compete. That's not what I said. This is what I said: QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ May 28, 2014 -> 04:46 PM) It's Rick Hahn. If he misses more than he hits, he'll be fired. Put the pitchfork away and save it for situations that will actually affect our ability to compete. Like if we had signed Ubaldo or something. What this means is that greg should not call for Hahn's head over missing on a player that can be released at no cost. He should call for Hahn's head on a player that will cost enough to hamper the team's ability to make moves (and thus compete) going forward. Ubaldo, who is making $50m over several years, falls into that category. That would be a miss that will hurt us this year, next year, and the year after that.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 29, 2014 -> 08:08 AM) What are Paulino's, Noesi's and Carroll's numbers? You said Ubaldo, and it was a troll to continue an argument I am sure, would hurt the White Sox chances of competing. Yet guys doing worse have pitched and the White Sox have competed. I also believe moving forward, Jimenez will pitch better. But he hasn't exactly been vomit-inducing like was mentioned some other time before. And he put together a few really nice starts. Paulino, Noesi, Carroll = bad and free and expendable any day. Ubaldo = bad and so expensive that he affects a team's ability to spend going forward. And locked in for multiple years. "Not exactly vomit-inducing and has put together a few really nice starts" is not good enough for the productive end of a 4 yr/$50m contract. How are we still arguing about this?

EJ needs his velocity back

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 29, 2014 -> 08:11 AM) By that logic, he won the game, so he did his job.

We really have no payroll issues at all. We have only one bad contract (Danks), and he's managed to remain effective enough to at least hold down a rotation spot. That we could simply cut Keppinger is evidence that the front office agrees. Anyway, the effect of that should be that the front office should NOT feel pressured to eat salary. It should all about maximizing talent this year.

On a podcast last week, Jason Parks said that as of that day, he'd prefer Nola over Kolek, citing two primary reasons: 1. People assume too much that it's a given that someone as raw as Kolek can develop the "pitchability" to become a frontline starter 2. People are underrating the quality of Nola's stuff -- touches 96, sits 93/94 and has three good pitches

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 28, 2014 -> 04:33 PM) I see what you did there. I am absolutely shocked the moderators will let that slide. It is kind of funny the saber boys are ignoring his advanced numbers. His FIP xFIP and WAR don't suggest in the least he would hurt the Sox chances of competing. Why are you ignoring those numbers? Are you referring to his significantly worse-than-average 4.22 FIP? Or his slightly less, but still worse-than-average 3.97 xFIP? Is it the worse-than-average 1.82 K/BB? The reliever-esque 4.50 BB/9? Is it his declining K rate? Or that he's averaging 5.6 innings per start? Oh, it must be the 2 MPH drop in his average fastball velocity. Honestly, Dick Allen, I can't even squint and find a reason to argue he isn't having a bad season. I'm sure you'll find some way to continue arguing, though.

QUOTE (Jake @ May 29, 2014 -> 06:32 AM) Yeah he's looked fine. Sample sizes, people. This is the hilarious part of all this discussion. A guy has one or two good/bad outings, and we want to annoint or write him off for 2 f***ing innings. Put that in perspective in your head, people of Soxtalk. A starter can throw five good innings and then give up a couple runs in the sixth. Should that guy immediately lose his rotation spot? It takes a closer 6 games to get even THAT much exposure. This is why reliever performance is so volatile -- we just don't see enough of them to know what we're going to get out of them until practically the end of the season. It takes a pretty extreme set of performances to know what to do with a guy after 25 innings or whatever these guys have accumulated thus far.

QUOTE (Wanne @ May 28, 2014 -> 03:43 PM) If I'm talking to Cashman...Gary Sanchez better be in the discussion. I bet it'll be more like Aaron Judge. Alexei's age won't do us any favors, and his price will ultimately be determined by how many motivated bidders there are. The Yankees make more sense than anyone else at this juncture.

QUOTE (greg775 @ May 28, 2014 -> 02:43 PM) Somebody should be accountable when a team wastes money on a pitcher who is absolutely horrible. It's Rick Hahn. If he misses more than he hits, he'll be fired. Put the pitchfork away and save it for situations that will actually affect our ability to compete. Like if we had signed Ubaldo or something.

Keep us going, glangon!

This post, to me, looks like you made a statement: QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 28, 2014 -> 01:46 PM) Isn't $68 million the biggest contract the White Sox have ever handed out? I would think that means he's considered a slam dunk. I think every team offering him 8 figures for 5 or 6 years thought he would be really successful. ...and then went out and found evidence directly to the contrary: QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 28, 2014 -> 01:46 PM) "We signed Alexei Ramirez in '08 for 4.25 [million dollars]," Hahn pointed out. "We signed Dayan Viciedo a year later for 10. In 2012, [Jorge] Soler goes to the Cubs for 30, and then Puig goes for 42 right away. Now Abreu. The escalation was so quick in this market for this type of player. Contracts went up 15-fold almost since '08. There is something about Jose having not played in the States that ultimately made people shy away, and you completely get that. In retrospect, thus far, it looks like it's going to be a sound deal. But you still had that unknown." Am I reading this wrong?

QUOTE (scs787 @ May 28, 2014 -> 02:59 PM) Dodgers might make some sense, for Pederson though?? Idk about that. I think I'd throw on the Soxman mask and wear only body paint and a sock on my dong and run laps around the cell if they were able to get Pederson for Lexi even straight up. Yeah I think they see Pederson as the replacement for Kemp. I have to think the Dodgers would rather move as much of that salary as possible and re-allocate it to a Hanley extension.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ May 28, 2014 -> 03:02 PM) Also, it's cool to see this: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?pla...10&view=bat Considering his perceived strengths and weaknesses, you'd think he'd be getting busted in more often, but they are really trying to go down and away. Good amount of meatballs, too. I wonder if those are mostly breaking balls.

Check out these new heatmaps: http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?pla...10&view=bat Interesting to see that Abreu's batting average is so much higher middle out -- even to the point of being out of the zone. Up and away, really. This seems to support the narrative I've been building in my head that his "sweet spot" is shifted further out than most. Then if you switch over to ISO/P, you see that the power is everywhere. One might even say "errrrywhere." Monster pop, dudes. Monster.

The Sox didn't know anything anyone else didn't know regarding Abreu, they were just in the best position to sign him. No one needed him more, and teams that could outspend them already had long-term 1B solutions.