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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 30, 2014 -> 06:06 AM) There is more to the game of baseball than statistics. If you watched the games at all, you would know exactly what is going on with Tyler Flowers. It isn't luck, it is adjustment and game planning. It won't be bad luck when the pitchers adjust to his adjustments. I think in this case people are misusing the numbers when the answer is right in front of them. That's what I'm saying: everyone agrees that he has made adjustments and has improved. The question being discussed is "have those adjustments really turned him into a .350/.400/.450 hitter?" From watching the games, I can tell you it seems that he's been making more consistent contact than last year, but he's also been spraying ducksnorts and seeing-eye grounders around a bit too. To my eye, it looked like he was swinging softer to prioritize contact over power, and that he was getting extremely lucky with where the ball was going/landing. Examining his Pitch F/X data confirms that he's been swinging at fewer bad pitches and making more contact when he does swing. Examining his BABIP and batted ball data tells us that (1) his LD% is sky high, but in line with what the best hitters in the league get each year. So it seems he has made legitimate improvements that have led to harder contact, and (2) the disparity between his xBABIP and BABIP is very, very wide. Taking a closer look reveals that both his grounders and fly balls have been turning into hits at much higher rates than even elite hitters get, let alone average hitters. So the answer we come up with, and pretty confidently, is: Tyler Flowers has indeed changed his approach for the better, but that it has not turned him into a .350/.400/.450 hitter. The numbers have showed me personally that he is playing better than I thought he was, but confirms that it simply cannot last at the current rate. I would have been wrong about this, despite watching all but maybe 3 games so far, had I not examined the numbers.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 10:07 PM) I never once said it was sustainable. Never. Well then what didn't you "buy" about Feeky's post?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 03:26 PM) I don't buy that. These are major league hitters. If I tell a major league hitter, than I am going to throw you a thigh-high slider moving from the outside corner to just off of the plate, you can probably hit that pitch if you have the right approach. You aren't going to do anything with it if you are trying to pull it, which Flowers spent all of last year trying to do. But if you are willing to sacrifice the power, and hit it into RCF, your odds go WAY up. Again, this is if you know this is coming, meaning you aren't guessing up there. The odds of anyone hitting a ball hard go WAY up when you know what is coming. Seeing as this is how pitchers have gotten Flowers out for a long time, someone FINALLY got through to the kid that this is exactly what is coming. That isn't luck. That is a good game plan. Again, the problem will come when pitchers start doing something different, and I think that different will be the letter high fastball. He still strikes out on that pitch an awful lot. The stats can tell you some things, but so can watching the games. I mean I don't think anyone is disagreeing with your logic, the issue is the degree that what you're mentioning can affect his onfield results. If you believe that Flowers has "adjusted" himself into a sustainable .600 BABIP, you believe he has the best bat control of any player in the entire history of baseball by a very wide margin. No one has ever come even remotely close to sustaining that kind of BABIP for a significant enough length of time as to suggest it was true talent. Career BABIP all-time: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...0&sort=12,d

Shields' contract will be based on number of suitors. Free agency is less about what a guy is "worth" and more about how many people need him. Price is where supply meets demand.

QUOTE (bmags @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 08:22 AM) This is typical for most every hitter. The good thing is that's a zone that if missed just a bit lower and outside is going to be crushed. That he has eliminated other areas of the plate is really exciting. He also crowds over the plate so much that area is very small. QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 08:44 AM) Lol. Ladies n gentleman, introducing the baseball scout potentate; advising simpleton advanced scouts since Yaz protected Hawk (the real, lesser-known truth). If you have time, please expand on this idea of busting good hitters inside. Sounds interesting man! The difference is that some hitters adjust to this, some don't. Frank Thomas/Joe Mauer/etc. learn to take these pitches, thus forcing the pitcher to walk them or go back outside. Right now, Abreu does not do this. This is his flaw and it doesn't have to be. "Fastball inside" is not the single best solutions for pitching to all hitters. Lol, smartass.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 02:11 PM) Pretty sure you just copy everything I say. I think you just edit your old posts to copy what EYE say!

QUOTE (DashFan @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 01:29 PM) I don't doubt that. His numbers right now are astronomical. I just think there may be good reason to believe we will see Tyler 2.0 for a full season and be able to assess the catching situation after that. I still think he's a talented player and maybe he's finally figuring things out. I was quick to dismiss Steverson's contributions but listening to him on white sox weekly, I'm starting to wonder if he's actually getting through to these players after all. With players like Tank, you'd easily be able to say that he is a young player still learning to hit MLB pitching - but Steverson has guys like Alexei and Tyler making some very visible adjustments at the plate. Occasionally they get away from it and you see flashes of last season but for the most part they seem to be buying into the new approach. I liked Steverson's focus on collecting data and video to first convince players they need to adjust, then coming up with adjustments and things to work on. I feel like that may be the difference with the Steverson era. I don't think the last couple of guys were as good at getting their message across. Of course I may be eating these words in September Yeah, this sis what ScottyDo/chitownsportsfan were exploring. His new approach has "earned" him a .357 BABIP -- he has roughly 11 more hits than we'd expect based on what typically happens from his batted ball profile. That's a far cry from .600, though. So if he continues to perform exactly how he has been performing, we would expect his BABIP to regress toward .357, landing probably around .400 or so given that 5/6 of the season remain. Realistically, he probably won't maintain a 32% LD rate, however, and many of those LDs will turn into FBs, and his xBABIP will drop from .357, and then so his actual BABIP will drop farther. But all this could happen and he could still have a really good season.

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 01:57 PM) True. But right now I'm interested in wild speculation way too early in the season. Would they move a Dunn who's hitting well while they're sitting in 1st place at the all-star break? I would think not. If they're both in first and Dunn was having a good enough year that they'd consider moving him anyway, the fanbase would never forgive them for "white flagging" like that.

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 01:40 PM) What happens if they get hot and are actually in 1st place around the deadline? IMO: low-end prospects for temporary fill-in upgrades, a la Youkilis/Liriano.

QUOTE (Jake @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 01:08 PM) Beware of equating BABIP with luck. The better you hit, the higher your BABIP will be. The batted ball statistics are helpful in this regard, but variables still exist. It's clear Flowers has made changes to his swing and approach that would increase his BABIP. Of course, he has also been rather lucky. It's no coincidence that those other "lucky" player were really good baseball players, though - you make your own luck, as they say. Right, that's what we've been exploring with the last few posts. We've concluded that a substantial portion of his high BABIP is due to increased line drive rates (not luck) and that a substantial portion of it is due to a much higher than normal rate of hits compared to his batted ball profile -- which should be considered luck.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 11:58 AM) Post edited for stupid math error. I am wrong, he is lucky. Ahh that makes more sense

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 11:50 AM) Another way to look at the luck component: Given his batted ball stats, is he getting lucky on top of that? He's got 75 ABs, of which 32.6% are LD, 47.8% are GB and 19.6% are FB. Given the avg associated with each of those numbers, how many hits would we expect T-Flow to have? (.714*.326*75)+(.238*.478*75)+(.139*.196*75) = 28.033 hits How many hits does Tyler Flowers have? 28. Super interesting. So his bloopies are not the culprit, or we'd expect him to have more hits than projected.

QUOTE (bmags @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 11:05 AM) Is there any other signs this isn't just luck? Like, yes obviously this is an incredibly lucky month, but is it possible he can hit .240-.250 because he's has a higher line drive rate than last year? Just hoping his regression is to bad catcher not worst catcher in history of league. QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 11:16 AM) His new OPPO approach clearly lends to more 2 strike hits, or just more hits in general. I don't think we're looking at Chris Shelton here, but his K and BB rates look like puke fungus may be around the corner. Like others are saying, he looks in charge back there. Comfortably in charge. Jerksticks' observation is indeed reflected in his plate discipline numbers. Two things stick out: (1) reduced swing rate at pitches out of the zone (O-Swing drop from ~37% to ~31%), and (2) drastically higher contact rate on the pitches he DOES swing at out of the zone (O-Contact increased from ~43% to ~56%). He does appear to be both choosing his swings more care fully AND prioritizing contact over power. The interesting thing about his line drive rate (up from 17% all the way to 32%) is that is has come entirely at the expense of his fly ball rate (down from 41% all the way to 19%). I'd be shocked, to be honest, if he can keep that line drive rate north of 25% all year, but if he does, we'll see a ton of singles/doubles and very few homers. Which is fine with me. Still, .600 BABIP would be historic. It's high both because of his LD rate and a TON of seeing-eye bloopers. The bloopers would almost certainly stop falling every time like they have been. If he keeps the liners, he could still end up with a .350-ish BABIP, realistically, and put together a very good season. EDIT: Lol @ ScottyDo saying essentially the same thing at the same time. His is much more concise though.

DFA Verlander

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 10:08 AM) I understand BABIP but I don't get the idea that it should eventually normalize over a full season. His K% sucks, his BB% sucks, he isn't showing power. But why can't he keep getting cheap hits all season? All career Mr. Cheapy? It's possible that it won't normalize, it's just never happened that way in the history of baseball. So it is singularly unlikely. The reason we say it "should" normalize is that research shows that it always has. Not because we can't imagine a situation where it might act differently -- because we can. It's just that situation is unprecedented.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Apr 28, 2014 -> 05:43 PM) If you weren't going to draft a guy because he missed a start or two due to an injury, you probably wouldn't be able to take anyone. I think it comes down to what drove the injury and is it long term or serious in nature. If it isn't, you shouldn't not draft him if you think he is the guy. Plus, for anyone pushing Rondon over Hoffman due to injury concerns, you should probably rethink that as there are other concerns over Rondon, including the impacts of the high pitch count. On the flipside, if he stays strong in his mechanics, it might not impact him and you also have to remember that college pitchers get the benefit of extra rest (vs. mlb starters). So every top tier starter has missed a couple starts due to an injury this season? I mean if he comes out and ruins everyone from now until the draft and says nothing hurts and you believe him, sure. But if there are any question marks at all, I'm looking elsewhere. Just IMO, I guess.

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Apr 28, 2014 -> 11:19 PM) I wonder if it is the highest ever BABIP in a month. I only looked at 40 months (counting March/April as one) of the (I think) 852 months of regular season MLB so far, so less than 5%, but .600 to .531 is such a big lead that I think there's a chance. Seems like Josh Hamilton had some high BABIP months during his MVP year.

QUOTE (Melissa1334 @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 06:45 AM) Avila said he kinda figured out how to get Abreu out in the series in Detroit. After the first game he had one hit in nine at bats with six strikeouts, interesting to see how he does. Although its never easy facing guys like Verlander and scherzer I can tell you how to get him out: Fastballs in on his hands all at bat. He hasn't shown a willingness to take a walk on those yet. He always swings eventually and jams himself. I think ever since he hit that homer in Colorado, advance scouts musta said something about how he can hurt you inside. But really, that's the best way to get him.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 29, 2014 -> 08:06 AM) Coming into this season, I would have taken 14-13 under ideal conditions, let alone with some of the stuff we have seen already. Indeed

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Apr 28, 2014 -> 06:21 PM) I have no problem with the older core, but they should have done something on the pitching side in case they were right about the offense. They could end up missing a golden opportunity. Right but they aren't old. They'll be there next year, and probably better. Rather than gamble on on Jimenez/Santana, give up a draft pick and sink tens of millions into what so far has amounted to a 50/50 shot at being good (Santana solid, Jimenez disaster), they see what they actually need for next year. Going into the year, there was reason to believe their SP prospects could have been ready. Hindsight is 20/20, but there was too much uncertainty to gamble the future.

I watched Sgt. Baker hit four batters in a row in ST this year. Maybe it was three. Still. Sure, as long as it's

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Apr 28, 2014 -> 04:45 PM) Any players gotten bigger numbers than that outside of arbitration, pre-free agency? Lincecum, right? $20m per year to avoid arb, I believe.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Apr 28, 2014 -> 01:33 PM) Ask and thou shalt receive. Ahahahahahahahaha

Gotta say no to Hoffman at this point. I don't want ANY injury flags for a guy who is valued appropriately at the slot. In other words, I think it can make sense to go for an injury guy if his talent represents something higher than the slot that you get him (i.e. Washington and Giolito), but when he's a #3 talent if healthy anyway, I think you have to go for another #3 talent.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Apr 28, 2014 -> 01:08 PM) Hmm, that reads a lot different than "If the Sox kept Addison Reed, they would win 90-95 games"