Eminor3rd

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Apr 21, 2014 -> 10:37 AM) Defensive metrics try to prove what your eyes are showing you. They're meaningless. No, this is not true. Defensive metrics try to remove subjectivity from the equation and provide a common denominator for comparison between players. For example, between Elvis Andrus and Alexei Ramirez, who is the better defender? You have no idea, you just know they're both good. The metrics give us an unbiased, consistent account that serves as a frame of reference. QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Apr 21, 2014 -> 10:37 AM) No, I won't see 1% of baseball plays because I actually watch the games. Errors are meaningless too. I can tell you that L Garcia is plus defender because he has insane range. Bobbling a couple balls doesn't change that. Are you saying that you actually DO see enough baseball games to intelligently remark on who the best defenders are? No, you don't. You could watch every inning of every single White Sox game this year and still only see 6% of the baseball that happened, and 85% of what you saw would be the centerfield view of the pitcher and hitter. No idea about positioning, no idea about first step, no idea even of a good portion of the route taken on the overwhelming majority of the plays made, excepted only by those accompanied by a really complete slow motion replay. And you'd have NO idea how to compare White Sox players to almost every other team, considering you'd see at MOST 18 games of some Central teams. Also, range is only one component of defense. Bobbling a couple balls doesn't make a guy a bad defender, but bobbling balls with some level of consistency DOES affect it. Arm strength, arm accuracy, instincts, and situational awareness are also massive factors. QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Apr 21, 2014 -> 10:37 AM) Is there a stat that proves Alexei is the most underrated Sox player of my life? Yes. fWAR has been giving Alexei TONS of credit for his defense for years. How? Defensive metrics!

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Apr 21, 2014 -> 12:44 PM) I like it. New fifth starter, Beckham and Marcus both get to start, everybody's happy. Less "pressure" on his bat, for sure.

Gordon Beckham

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Apr 21, 2014 -> 11:28 AM) Considering last year they could have been playing in Williamsport and not scoring many runs, I'll take it. I don't think they have a top offense by any means, and while 2 explosions can really distort totals at this point, it is also nice to know this team has weathered some outages. Abreu, Semien, De Aza. If they pitch better, they should at least be fun to watch. Amen to all that.

...thanks to two blowouts.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Apr 21, 2014 -> 09:23 AM) Defensive stats are absolutely meaningless. The only good tool to judge defenders is your eyes. What makes you say this? Your opinion is fine, but you've got to back it up for people to take it seriously. Not trying to be a jerk, just need an actual argument for why they are meaningless in order to refute all of the research that shows otherwise.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Apr 20, 2014 -> 09:03 PM) I've been told by people here who know way more than me that defensive metrics, as they currently stand, generally need 1.5 to 2 seasons to yield a reliable number (and even that's debatable). Specifically, UZR. It's actually more like 3 unfortunately, to be really safe. The problem is that window is big enough to encompass skill decline, lol. The reason UZR isn't useless is that it does a decent job as a descriptor at much lower samples than that, it's just hard to make it a predictor. So when people say stuff like "MOUSTAKAS sucks all his value came on defense and defense stats are meanignless," they're both right and wrong. They're wrong in arbitrarily refusing to award him the value of his performance (he DID have a great defensive season and it DID matter) but they're right to question his ability to repeat it (by the time we can account for most of the randomess, he will be a different player).

QUOTE (Feeky Magee @ Apr 20, 2014 -> 08:57 PM) Just looking at his advanced fielding stats, they have him killing it at SS and 3B, but pretty damn bad at 2B. Any theories on this or is it solely sample size? You need 150 or so games in order for them to be reasonably confident that he wasn't just getting awesome bounces or too many opportunities or anything else flukey. Note that that's a different thing than "are they real?" So, he has been killing it at SS/3B and bad at 2B, but we haven't seen nearly enough to be able to use that as information regarding how "good" he really is in terms of true talent, defined as how well he's likely to do going forward.

QUOTE (fathom @ Apr 19, 2014 -> 08:04 PM) He's been crushing first pitch fastballs this year...no problem with his approach there. That makes no sense at all. You're cool with him deciding to swing no matter where the pitch is? He had to literally bend over to hit the first one, the second was well low also.

Two IDIOTIC bases loaded at bats by Alexei tonight.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 09:39 PM) He's made many- he's basically an amateur. Heck, tonight he left his starting pitcher in to give up 13 hits in less than 4 innings. Didn't even try to win the game. Yeah, tonight was way worse. For example, he had Semien, Abreu, AND Vicedo all go 0 for 4. What kind of strategy is that?

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 08:40 PM) I'm not sure he can pitch after playing the field Sure he can. It's the same thing as moving a guy to a different position. As long as he doesn't get taken out, he can move anywhere.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 04:18 PM) MLB network guys criticized Robin but you are right too. We need a bullpen that can throw strikes. We had like 11 walks? Ridiculous Actually, 15. Two of them were Leury's, but still 13 for the real pitchers.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 02:32 PM) Hahaha, nice work.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 12:50 PM) What scout(s) thought it would be a good idea to acquire Paulino? Yes I want heads to roll over that acquisition. A common fan could tell you that was a bad idea. I think you could be justifiably angry about it in a year where we were expected to make a push, but in a "see what you have" year, heads aren't going to roll over trying to catch lightning in a bottle. In a "go for it" year, they would be expected to have a contingency plan, certainly. The guy has a lively arm, there's no question. Cooper success stories tend to be those where (1) a cutter is added to offset declining stuff, (2) mechanical changes are made to increase control, or (3) both. If Cooper saw something in his mechanics he thought he could fix, there's no question that this was a worthwhile experiment.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Apr 17, 2014 -> 07:03 AM) On the facebooks, I suggested 40 years, $1 billion. Thoughts? The AAV feels right, but I'm not going over 32 years.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 11:35 AM) Complete game, 92 pitches

With Beckham now rehabbing in AA and Semien going cold, I'm all in favor of handing the job to Beckham one more time and sticking Semien in Charlotte. I think Semien's process at the ML level has been really good, some time in AAA should boost his confidence and get him in a groove. Beckham gets one more hail mary, but I think he ultimately gets waiver-traded or DFA'd/

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 08:44 AM) Pfft, you guys are haters. Paulino is going to throw a 2 hitter tonight. Even if he does, there's no way he gets through more than 7 innings. That's a lot of bullpen runs.

Poll added.

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 09:30 AM) I'll take the over, since they'll have to go at least 4 innings. I agree. Over

Ugh, meant to post this in the main forum. Was here because I was checking for an AAP. Please move, mods. Sorry

Follow the link for video: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/prospect-wa...don-and-garcia/

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 08:50 AM) It's surely not his fault that his guys walked 15 batters. I saw that and came to two possible non-mutually exclusive conclusions: 1) The pitchers were wild 2) The strike zone was small, erratic, and/or inconsistent. I didn't immediately think "hmm, Robin sure f'ed that one up." You hit it on the head when you said, "if he managed it like a 14 inning game, it would have been over in 9."

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Apr 18, 2014 -> 08:28 AM) I especially like all the "Robin is the worst," "Robin has no business managing," "Robin never does anything right why is he still here" when the last manager made just as many or more reprehensible moves, but because the Sox had an incredible year all around in 2005, he gets a free pass as a result. All managers will look bad when their players fail, and all managers will look good when their players succeed. There are questionable moves that have been made, but someone is going to have a coronary if they continue to analyze every single move he makes under a microscope. I think anyone who is blaming Robin for the loss just read the boxscore. If you actually stayed up and watched the game you know it's clearly all on the bullpen performance.