Eminor3rd

I can’t see giving Rodon more than a two-year deal, even if you like him. I could imagine some team caves and goes three years to be the winner. QO will def drive down the AAV if he goes elsewhere

Didn’t need another right handed dh last time he was available, don’t need one this time either.

I see what you're saying, but with Rodon and Cease as question marks going into 2021, it should have appeared that there were certainly roles to be had. I admit it's hard to remember what a total lottery ticket Rodon was, but he was almost in MiLB deal territory. There was no chance Kopech was going to be a starter in 2021, and Lopez looked cooked. Now, with Cease established, Lopez looking better, and Kopech probably ready to take a shot at the rotation, it may be tougher to make that case this year.

Charlie Morton, James Paxton, Jose Quintana, Rick Porcello, Jon Lester, Brett Anderson, Anthony Desclafani, Cole Hamels, Robbie Ray, Mike Fiers, Martin Perez, JA Happ, Jake Arrieta, Rich Hill, Chase Anderson, Tyler Chatwood, Aaron Sanchez, Chris Archer, Garrett Richards, Matt Shoemaker, Corey Kluber, Trevor WIlliams, Mike Foltynewicz, Collin McHugh, Matt Moore, Jose Urena, Tyler Anderson, Michael Wacha, Alex Wood, Trevor Cahill, and Sam McWilliams all signed one year MLB deals going into the 2021 season, and their ultimate contributions ranged from "minor bullpen piece" to "All-Star starter." It's hard not to use hindsight to rate them all now, but going into the season, you could easily imagine any one of them being all-stars or ending up in the bullpen. I believe the Sox absolutely should have signed AT LEAST one of those guys, maybe two. If two is too rich, Ivan Nova, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez, Tyson Ross, Julio Teheran, Tommy Milone, Jefry Rodriguez, Chi Chi Gonzalez, Jhoulys Chacin, and Wade LeBlanc all signed minor league deals -- and you can't tell me that the White Sox situation wasn't one where there was a good chance for those guys to get a real shot, so it would be hard to believe that those guys wouldn't want to take a deal in Chicago because of the DC. Before you say it: yes, many of those ended up commanding more than $10mm. That doesn't change the point; none of them commanded over $15mm, which shouldn't be a meaningful difference for the White Sox at this juncture, given their current payroll and position on the win curve.

Right, that's one way they accomplish it. I just think it's frustrating that it's been pretty well established that their style of pitching depth is highly associated with winning for nearly ten years now, and the White Sox are still willing to go "all in" with 3.5 starters and a prayer. And while it isn't fair to expect any team to spend like the highest spending team, I would argue there's a GULF of difference between the Dodgers excess and what the White Sox have done. I mean, try to remember how insane it was to have penciled in both Rodon (who was a TOTAL lottery ticket) AND Dylan Cease (who was not at ALL established). Both those things worked out, but neither was likely to work out, and a couple $8-10mm dollar one year deals could have substantially mitigated the risk. Even if you could convince me their scouting was able to see something that made it likelier those guys would do what they did, it's hard to make an argument not to buy the insurance policy nonetheless.

There's margin for error in the division for sure, but again I think the consequence here is being in shape to play in October. I think, in addition to they're "planned 5," they need to acquire at least a couple veteran 4/5 starter types that aren't too precious to be shuttled into the bullpen for stretches as necessary. Ideally, there's also one or two more Reynaldo Lopez's they've developed in AAA, ready to fight for a long-term spot two or three times a year. Obviously you can't just make that appear in one offseason, but I think that's the model that teams like the Dodgers and Rays have demonstrated is the way to use depth to reduce the randomness of the season and provide options going into the postseason.

Well, I expect the answer is that they compiled a lot more useful depth. I don't have the encyclopedic knowledge of every contenders roster I used to have years ago to be able to list a convincing number of examples, so I'm more out on a limb than I normally like to be, but one quick interesting thing that might be a proxy for this: The White Sox had nine (9) different pitchers record a start in 2021, the Dodgers had nineteen (19). I imagine this represents the extreme end of differences, but I'd be willing to bet the Sox are near or at the bottom in that number, probably in the whole league. Also, it was always crazy to expect Rodon to be a workhorse all year; even if you assumed health, he simply hasn't carried that kind of workload for too long, if ever.

This team still needs starting pitching very badly. Last year's gambles, essentially, went as well as they possibly could have gone (Lynn and Rodon both having literal ceiling, career years and losing minimal time to injury), but even then we could see how gassed the staff was by the time the playoffs rolled around. You can't bet on that kind of luck again and you can't expect Keuchel to be anything more than a 5th starter at this point -- so the White Sox REALLY need to address it this offseason.

FWIW, I've read he made some significant mechanical changes that allowed him to unlock much more consistent command. I wish I could say I saw it but Giants games are really hard to watch, so I didn't. It isn't hard to imagine that Vieira's raw stuff with improved command could be overwhelming in the NPB<,simply because that type of pitcher is so rare over there, but I don't think it NECESSARILY means it'll translate back to the MLB. But he did have a hell of a year. He broke Ohtani's record for the fastest pitch recorded in NPB history, and he also set some kind of record for consecutive scoreless innings/appearances.

Lol, I sincerely apologize to have affected you so much to have you try to drag the argument you invented into a second thread. You seem to have a habit of projecting some sort of adversarial argument onto other people's conversations, regardless of how unrelated they are to the one happening in your head. I can't imagine that does anything but cause more stress for you. So, you have my sympathy, but I'm not going to spend time defending arguments you've made up on my behalf, lol.

Imagine not even being able to read the six or so sentences of the post you responded to find out I don't even think he's terrible, lmao. What a waste of time it must be to argue with people about things they don't even believe.

Some actual new info in this one, regarding advanced metrics on defense and contract guess of 4/32:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/10/mlb-free-agent-rumors-seiya-suzuki-top-japanese-outfielder-posted-npb-hiroshima-carp.html

Ok Didn't say it wasn't; try reading closer. Yep, but it's a substantially smaller gap than it used to be. Here's one article, of dozens available, explaining this: https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/9/21/17885820/pitch-framing-strike-zone-jorge-alfaro-tyler-flowers Didn't say it was -- but it's a nearly universal consensus (and was at the time of the White Sox signing) that Grandal is/was elite at the former and terrible at the latter -- and that happens to be who we're talking about. It seems like you had a particular-shaped complaint that you wanted to fit my post into ahead of time. I don't even have a problem with Grandal on this team, lol. All of the teams that are employing specifically those players? The two teams in the ALCS are good examples, but you can find more.

Yeah, well he WAS considered a defensive stud for a bit when catcher framing quickly became like the ONLY quantifiable part of catcher defense, and so everyone got obsessed with it. You never hear about it anymore because (1) it turns out it can be taught relatively easily, even to veterans, and pretty much every team does that now, so the difference between good and bad framers is way smaller than it was before, and (2) the teams that were on it quickly have pretty much de-emphasized it, because they've decided that game-calling and pitcher relationships seem to be even more valuable, especially given point #1. But it isn't unusual for the he White Sox to "catch up" to modern trends after there's little value left to be gained,

I think a lot of other MLB teams agree with you.

I believe so.

I wouldn't be shocked if the White Sox try to buy low on Keston Hiura.

https://www.barstoolsports.com/blog/3389796/seiya-suzuki-is-japans-latest-baseball-star-and-he-might-be-coming-stateside-this-winter

Looks like righties have been able to bust him inside this year, but not lefties. Can't see any other major weakness. Strange that they've continued to work him middle-out all year from both sides.

It's REALLY difficult to guess, IMO, because we still don't even have a "normal" market back yet, you know? And that's before we consider the work stoppage that is probably going to happen. In my head, if we assume we'll see something resembling a normal free agent market, I'm thinking something like the first Abreu contract. I think evaluators in the game know that he's a cut or two above the Tsutsugoh class, but I also know for a fact that some teams (I wish I knew precisely how many) are almost literally give a hard pass to all NPB bats, period, because they find it confounding to try to evaluate their skills against what is just really different pitching, and so they consider them too risky. So I think it'll be one of those situations where a few teams will REALLY believe in him, but the market isn't robust enough to really drive it super high. Traditionally, that's where the White Sox like to strike -- where JR can feel like he's getting a bargain because Hahn and Co have an eval that is higher than consensus, so maybe there is a glimmer of hope? But I'm just guessing. SO many massive factors will affect the pace and size of the free agent market this winter.

No, he is considered an above average outfielder and has one of the most feared OF arms in the league. This would be a SOLUTION to the problem.

I don't think it's likely either, because, quite frankly, the Sox have completely failed to build the relationships and make the necessary investments to be competitive in Asia. And for whatever obscure, 1980s-business-man reason, they seem to be content having only a single pipeline to international talent.

Yes, and the MLB has managed to bully the NPB into progressively worse deals each time the term ends. It's actually resulted in less top talent being posted, as the teams just don't get enough incentive to part with their stars anymore. When it does happen, it's when the player really wants it and the team is willing to do them a favor -- which isn't as strange as it sounds given that, due to the fact that there's far less player movement in NPB, star players become very popular, long-term, with fans, and they often return to the organization as even bigger stars when they come back form the MLB. So it's a long-term relationship from the start in a way that just isn't the norm in US sports.