Eminor3rd

Too many good arms to think Sale is THE favorite. Certainly he'd be a preseason contender. Abreu as ROY is much more likely, but I think Tanaka is a better bet in NY, given they're much more likely to contend and, of course, they are NY. There's also the potential for a Xander Bogaerts breakout, and that's another nice East Coast story. I voted neither, but both are certainly plausible.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 30, 2014 -> 02:58 PM) Would the emotional joy of getting rid of Beckham be worth the risk of having Semien jump to the big leagues without much time at AAA (when we already saw him struggle somewhat last year with the 2nd jump, with his walk rate declining both from AA to AAA and then big time from AAA to the big league cup of coffee)? If Semien is even average, he goes down for seasoning, IMO. But there should absolutely have the opportunity to steal the job. If he decides he's going to break out this year, the FO would be insane to interrupt it.

QUOTE (nitetrain8601 @ Mar 30, 2014 -> 02:52 PM) You're nuts. Beckham has had his chances. I'm not going to give him another year. Screw that. If Semien plays good, he should play, period. This ^

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 28, 2014 -> 09:19 AM) For us that was clearly talking about the early-2nd round pick, I thought. Sorry, I was referring to the #10 rank on mlb.com earlier in that post.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Mar 27, 2014 -> 05:46 PM) Gettys is likely long gone by the time the Sox pick. Some have compared him to Buxton with an ugly swing. MLB.com has him ranked as the #10 overall prospect. This was interesting though: "It's a bad swing, but I can't just ignore the other talent," an AL Central scout said. "It may only end up a 45 [on the 20-80 scouting scale] hit tool, but when you're above-average to plus everywhere else, I think you can still be a major league regular, in my opinion. It's going to take some time, but his skillset is a special one." "...can still be a major league regular..." No thanks in the first round, lol.

Gotta get team control in trades right now

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 26, 2014 -> 04:11 PM) Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jiminez are making roughly the same salary per year as Abreau. How are they being paid like stars and Abreau is being paid like a league average player? If you consider $2-4 million dollars per year "roughly the same," then yeah, it's not much difference. Santana at $14.1m, and Ubaldo at $12.5m AAV. If the Sox got Santana, I'd assume it would be at the same price since it was essentially just "choose your team" for him. You figure the Sox would beat the Orioles offer at $13m AAV at the minimum to get him.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 26, 2014 -> 01:48 PM) Again, in the Abreu thread, you said if he was a bust, $60 million wasn't going to harm the team. At least be consistent. The fact that the Sox were in on Tanaka tells you all you really need to know about their finances. Apparently JR WAS WILLING TO THROW MONEY AT HIS PROBLEMS. He threw $68 million at Abreu and in total was probably willing to go twice as much for Tanaka. You never read my response when you say this. Please read the following: NO ONE IS AGAINST SPENDING MONEY EVERYONE IS AGAINST SPENDING MONEY ON STUPID, RISKY, LOW UPSIDE DEALS Jose Abreu's contract was smart because he is being paid like a LEAGUE AVERAGE PLAYER. Ergo, his contract is easier to tolerate if it busts. An investment in talent with upside is good. The downside is limited, in context. You are the ONLY one who thinks I said that $68m doesn't matter. Truthfully, I don't even think you really think that's what I said, I think you just like to disagree with everything I post. Ervin Santana (and every other old, dead cat bounce, injury prone, flash in the pan, etc.) is a BAD INVESTMENT because there's limited or no upside, he/they are being paid like STARS instead of league-average players, and thus come with MORE downside. This is risky. This is bad. I don't know how else to explain this.

QUOTE (TheTruth05 @ Mar 26, 2014 -> 01:54 PM) What a tease. Haha no joke

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 26, 2014 -> 11:18 AM) This board is so concerned with JR checking account balance. I just wonder, what if the Yankees or Dodgers needed a 1st baseman and Abreu's price went up, what would have been the cutoff money-wise before his current can't miss, can't wait to see him in the middle of the line up would have change to the "he's never faced a pitch in the major leagues, he's not worth it, maybe when the team is a little better you could spend the money". We don't care at all how much money that JR has, it's just we're looking past that and dealing in reality. None of us know how much the Sox make, how much they have saved, ownership's ability or willingness to expand budget, balh blah etc. The reality is that there is a limit to how much the team is going to spend on payroll, and we have some frame of reference that tells us that our team is willing and able to be in the upper quarter when they feel it's necessary. This is PLENTY of information for us to like or not like deals based on financials. You can wish JR would spend endlessly if you like, but it isn't going to happen. There IS a ceiling, it's a reasonable ceiling, and therefore we don't like s***ty deals that waste money because we know there's a limit. The morality of that is completely separate from the analysis and interpretation of the deals that happen to the team. Marty's kindergarten logic dictates that we should sign overpriced players because JR should have enough money to continue throwing money at problems anyway DESPITE the fact that there is no precedent for this type of behavior. But we know that he WON'T continue to throw money at problems anyway, and therefore we should NOT sign overpriced players. Marty deals in Martyland, the rest of us are dealing in reality.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 26, 2014 -> 10:55 AM) Unless the guy sucks, and prohibits you from signing a guy when you actually need one like, you know, Adam Dunn. Exactly. And when you're talking about 32 year old middling free agent starters, the window of effectiveness is really small. You just have to wait Marty. If this team wins 80 games this year and has a hole in the rotation, you can be angry if they don't sign Ervin Santana's equivalent next year. Those guys just don't last, you can't rely on their futures.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 26, 2014 -> 10:05 AM) When did I say that? I felt it was safe to assume when you didn't respond to post #408

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 26, 2014 -> 09:47 AM) Chairman Reinsdorf should sell the team if he can't figure out a way to grow revenues. But you're against spending money on risky free agent signings now, because Adam Dunn. What do they need more revenue for?

QUOTE (fathom @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 10:03 AM) It's so difficult to imagine the Sox organization drafting a high school pitcher that high. Over the weekend, Hawk and Stoney were talking about how research showed that a high school pitcher loses about 2-3 mph when they enter professional baseball. Sure, but that's not really surprising considering that velocity decreases every year for pitchers, on average: Credit to Bill Petti for this graph and the corresponding research.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 09:02 PM) And popular opinion was wrong. (Fangraphs too.) Ok, so you're against spending money?

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 09:55 PM) Not true. The reaction to the Dunn signing was decidedly pro around here. That's because no one thought it was a stupid move.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 09:29 PM) This does not explain SS2K5's posts against spending any money. No one is against spending money. EVERYONE is against making stupid moves in free agency.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 04:41 PM) If the Sox find themselves in a situation where they need their second best starter to be better than Quintana, his contract extension should make him a valuable commodity in that pursuit. That would fall under your "super useful to any team" criteria, no? Yes, but my point is that I don't see why we need to trade him to get a better pitcher. We're going to need a good #3 also. This is where you try to sign someone or deal prospects, and that's a 2015-16 problem. This year we need to see if (1) we can depend on a Danks bounceback and (2) we have mid or back-end guys in Johnson and Rienzo going forward.

I'll take the under on the homers, over on RBI

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 01:22 PM) I'm not making any prediction.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 01:08 PM) However, this other poster named Marty34 told me that it takes 2+ years to develop a pitcher, so we should conclude that Quintana will keep getting better this year based on what he told me. Yep, and he also told us that rebuilding isn't about winning in the future, so really we should all just meet at the bar and cry about Adam Dunn.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 01:00 PM) I'm not the only one in this thread that isn't sure that Quintana is a #2 on a playoff team. Yet you're the only one in the thread that thinks it matters. The rest of us understand that he's likely about a 3 win pitcher (assuming health) being paid like a castoff free agent, and that is super useful to any team.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 11:38 AM) $24 million a year for 6 years for a pitcher over 30 isn't exactly team friendly. Just wait and see what they are going to have to pay Cabrera when he is 40 years old and the gout won't let him run to first base. lol, the gout. He DOES seem old, doesn't he? I'm comfortable with assuming that Cabrera will age 3 "Miggy Years" for every normal human year. Nine years from now, he'll be 58. But yeah, $24m/yr is market rate for a 5 win pitcher. That's not a deal, that's a retail purchase.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Mar 25, 2014 -> 11:12 AM) Athlete or not, throwing overhand, especially as often and as hard as pitchers do, is not a natural motion and the body is not meant to withstand that sort of damage. If he has god given characteristics - unusually strong tendons, ligaments, and muscles or improved natural ability for his body to regenerate and repair itself - then it is, but there's really no way to test for that. This is it ^ The reality is that we don't know how to predict pitcher injury. Jamie Moyer threw 100,000,000 pitches or 70 years before he needed TJ, and Jarrod Parker is a 23 year old sophomore who is now on his second TJ. The pitches argument Passan is making is just posturing -- Scherzer is just as likely to get hurt as any other pitcher with his injury history.