Eminor3rd

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 22, 2014 -> 09:17 AM) You like the Sox core better than the Cubs core? I like Abreu and Sale much more than any players in the Cubs franchise. I like Eaton and Semien slightly more than I like Castro and Rizzo. I like Bryant, Baez, and Soler much more than I like Anderson, Hawkins, and Thompson. I think the Cubs have more high ceiling talent in the low to mid minors, but I think we have more talent in the upper minors and at the ML level, which is why I think our window is as close or closer.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 22, 2014 -> 08:25 AM) Winning the trades isn't enough. Did they assemble the core of the next championship team by virtue of these trades. That was the fall back plan in keeping the team together last year. By trading Peavy, Rios, Floyd, etc... they would be able to quickly rebuild. I don't Leury Garcia is what they had in mind for Rios, but maybe the rest of the guys they got will make up for him. What is the ETA of this rebuild? It will of course depend on how these young guys play this year, but I can tell you the ETA is a LOT closer than the models that the Cubs, Astros, Marlins, etc. have been employing. I mean look at the Cubs: they're on year three and we're arguably just as far along in year one. We have less ammo in the lower minors, but there's no reason to believe we won't continue to acquire it via the draft and international market this season and next.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 22, 2014 -> 08:05 AM) You're buying into the hype machine that MLB has started to create. An MLB draft pick isn't worthless, but it damn near is to a franchise that pulls in the revenue the Sox do. It is a great cover to give a fan base for not to spending money in free agency. There's something incongruous to targeting prospects in trades that are well past the midpoint in their development while in the same breath talking up the value of keeping draft picks. The bolded line in your post above is so demonstrably, factually wrong that I am again wondering if you are aware of what sport this board is dedicated to following. As to the final sentence, I'll repeat this again since you didn't read it the first time: It's about infusing talent at all levels of the system. Again: It's about infusing talent at all levels of the system There is nothing "incongruous" about it -- throwing all your eggs into a single high-variability basket is a huge risk that is not likely to work, at least according to recent precedent (see Royals, Mets, Blue Jays). See also the concept of using organizational depth to fill bigger organizational holes (pitchers to position players). See also the concept of selling high (many factors point to Santiago as a HUGE regression candidate, namely low HR/FB rate, high strand rate, and a FIP nearly a run higher than his ERA) and buying low (Eaton coming of an injury-riddled season where his fairly substantial hype had deflated). It's not FanGraphs, it's f***ing logic. It's about infusing talent at all levels of the system.

I think you're forgetting how young Hawkins is. 2015 is his age 21 season. He's much more likely to get a cup of coffee in 2016 and really have a shot to stick in 2017. He could be there permanently for the first time in 2018 and still not be behind compared to average.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 21, 2014 -> 09:11 PM) If that were the case why did they specifically target Major League ready prospects. The point of taking a lesser prospect because they are closer to the majors is to shorten the rebuilding process. If they were going to cut ~$35M in payroll they should have just targeted the best prospects period. You bolded the line in my quote that is the answer. They can buy young prospects, they cannot buy MLB breakout candidates. They got the guys they wanted. No one, anywhere, at all think the Sox lost any of the trades they made. Try to find one.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 21, 2014 -> 05:52 PM) Which is why limiting the prospect options to Major League ready ones made me cringe. I disagree that we have players after this group that will be options. If these guys fail, Sale has to go on the market. Off season of 2015 will they be good enough to keep Sale? It's about infusing talent at all levels. They increased international spending for the super young, they are drafting smarter (and higher =\ ) than ever before for the 18 to 22 year olds, and they are making trades to acquire controllable ML pieces.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Mar 21, 2014 -> 03:59 PM) Flowers hurt on swing. Hawk speculates its an oblique. Catching situation just went from bad to worse. I think Hawk might somehow be SPONSORED by the oblique.

I'm cool with Ervin Santana being nicknamed "Voldemort" this season if you guys are.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 21, 2014 -> 03:31 PM) If Marty enjoyed let downs anymore, he'd be a Cub fan. Honestly, I think if the Sox win the World Series this year, Marty will find a way to be disappointed in how it was done. "Oh, you guys think that it we won it all just because FANGRAPHS lists us as the World Champions. Sure."

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 21, 2014 -> 03:28 PM) Yeah, they only gave the biggest contract ever to an international player, then bid on the guy who beat that contract, plus put in a bid on McCann. They weren't looking to spend at all. Cheap bastards. Haha seriously. THEY SIGNED THE LARGEST INTERNATIONAL FREE AGENT CONTRACT IN HISTORY

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 21, 2014 -> 03:00 PM) I believe if there was a post in September of last year that predicted Dunn, Konerko, Keppinger on the roster with Flowers and Paulino as starters and the Sox payroll at ~$85M this board would be up in arms. Lol, "if there was a post that predicted only the negative things that happened, and ignored all of the positives, people would feel NEGATIVE!"

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Mar 21, 2014 -> 02:12 PM) Fun little read, and it's pretty impossible to disagree with his take. THAT SOUNDS LIKE A CHALLENGE #hewhoshallnotbenamed #hewhoshallnotbesigned

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Mar 21, 2014 -> 11:10 AM) It is an insider article. http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/...-2014-mlb-draft He's got Turner all the way down at 20

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Mar 21, 2014 -> 07:29 AM) I prefer the dragon Smaug as the image...

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 20, 2014 -> 05:26 PM) Jerry Reinsdorf is rich enough to afford a better rotation. Can I ask what your career is? Where can you work to make a legitimate living and not learn how a business is run? JR is the head of an INVESTMENT GROUP that has invested in a team with the purpose of MAKING MONEY. It's like you think the Sox are run by literally just Jerry Reinsdorf sitting on a pile of gold with a bag of Fritos trying to decide the best way to blow his fortune. "Hmmmmmmmmm Marty wants to win 90 games, but.... NOOO! Only 82 games this year! You only get 40 gold coins for pitchers Rick! No more wins unless I SAY SO! I'm the boss!"

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 20, 2014 -> 03:20 PM) Danks, Johnson, and Paulino = crater-sized holes in the rotation. It's not a f***ing video game Marty. You can't just be like "OH OUR TEAM WAS BAD LET'S MAKE A TRADE. I WANT CLAYTON KERSHAW AND FELIX HERNANDEZ. WE NEED PITCHING SO LET'S SIGN ALL THE BEST PITCHERS. DOESNT MATTER MONEY BECAUSE JERRY REINSDORF IS RICH"

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 20, 2014 -> 03:00 PM) you're the one who thinks player track record doesn't matter when it comes to trades. What?

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 20, 2014 -> 03:32 PM) Coupled with the crater-sized holes in the rotation that weren't addressed it seems the pats on the back for Hahn's offseason were overdone. You really have no idea how this works, do you?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 20, 2014 -> 11:01 AM) There are no players with BABIP at .000, so excessive strikeouts do matter. An out isn't always just an out, and if Flowers or any other player made more contact, their other offensive numbers should improve. He didn't say they don't matter, he just said that focusing on them rather than his overall output is misguided. Strikeouts can be a factor to a low BA which is a factor to a low OBP, so as a diagnostic, they matter. I think Jake is just saying that, at the end of the day, if he would just get on base at a .330+ clip, we don't care if every out he made is a strikeout. Looking at the Ks can be missing the forest for the trees. If you're drilling down to find out what is bad about a guy, strikeouts are important. But if you're deciding whether or not a guy is bad, they aren't. You wouldn't say "he sucks because he strikes out too much," rather, "he sucks because he doesn't get on base enough," and strike outs may or may not be a factor in that.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Mar 20, 2014 -> 01:04 PM) Would anyone here deal Viciedo for Turner? A thousand times yes

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Mar 20, 2014 -> 09:05 AM) How are the park-adjustments calculated? Do all players on the same team receive the same adjustment? I don't know, I've always wondered that. I've always assumed that you use the park factors to dampen the linear weight values of each event, but I've never known how they actually weigh PT in in each park. Like does De Aza's line reflect 9 games at Comerica, for example. Not sure how precise they can actually get. Do you know, wite?

QUOTE (greg775 @ Mar 19, 2014 -> 10:46 PM) How is the Sox defense this spring? It's been pretty bad, from what I've seen.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Mar 20, 2014 -> 07:28 AM) The average splits in LF last year was .259/.323/.412/.735. As an example, De Aza was at .264/.323/.405/.728, so he's almost a perfect example of it. His wRC+ was 97, but that's weighted down because of USCF. It's safe to assume that's your average production out of left field. Tabata was better than that and can certainly still improve considering he's only 25. I think he's certainly a guy whose offensive production will be dependent upon his average, but I don't see splits of .280/.340/.410 as unlikely or unreasonable moving forward especially considering he was even better than that last year, and that's an extremely valuable player in the game today. Yes, I'd prefer elite type talent, but you have to have the pieces to acquire that. Come the 2014-15 offseason, with Tabata coming off a good season, you then have an additional piece that you can trade as well. Like I said, the price has to be right, and I have my doubts about that, but I have no problem bringing him in if it is. Just FYI -- wRC+ is park-adjusted. Woo! What a great stat. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wrc/

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Mar 19, 2014 -> 02:28 PM) I used median because I am too lazy to add them all together to determine what the average is, but the median should act as the divining point between a league average player and and above average player. I should have said qualified players instead of eligible, as there were 16 qualified LF's last season and Alfonso Soriano was eighth with a wRC+ of 112. There were 23 qualified RF's and Shane Victorino was 12th with wRC+ of 119. Why? I don't understand why you would use the median of the top 16 LFs as the point where a guy is valuable or not. You're just saying "he's not a top 8 LFer."

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Mar 19, 2014 -> 01:15 PM) Or you could expect it to be in 80-90 range as he put up in 2012. Tabata has Podsednik power without strong defense or plus speed on the base paths as his SBs have declined dramatically. This is similar to the Rangel Ravelo situation, the guy can hit but does not have the defensive profile to fit in a position that his bat will play. Hes a one tool player that the Pirates have been trying to dump for a while and keep acquiring players like Byrd and Snider to try and get him out of the lineup. The median wRC+ for eligible RF's last season was 122. The median for eligible LF's was 112. So no, 105-110 is not above average for a corner OF anyway you slice it. What? Median? Why would you use median? Especially to refute my claim of "above average?" And what are you defining as "eligible"? Number 125 of the 250 OFs Fangraphs is showing is Ben Revere at 92 wRC+. Filtering out anything under 50 PA gives me Gerardo Parra at 96. Major League avg. wRC+ by position, 2013: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0 OF: 102 RF: 105 CF: 99 LF: 99 Yeah, guys look bad if you predict that they will repeat their worst season. No idea why we'd expect that though, given that he's coming off his best season. My guess of 105-110 factors regression. Even his career number is 103, which is, in fact, above average any way you slice it.