Eminor3rd

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 20, 2014 -> 11:01 AM) There are no players with BABIP at .000, so excessive strikeouts do matter. An out isn't always just an out, and if Flowers or any other player made more contact, their other offensive numbers should improve. He didn't say they don't matter, he just said that focusing on them rather than his overall output is misguided. Strikeouts can be a factor to a low BA which is a factor to a low OBP, so as a diagnostic, they matter. I think Jake is just saying that, at the end of the day, if he would just get on base at a .330+ clip, we don't care if every out he made is a strikeout. Looking at the Ks can be missing the forest for the trees. If you're drilling down to find out what is bad about a guy, strikeouts are important. But if you're deciding whether or not a guy is bad, they aren't. You wouldn't say "he sucks because he strikes out too much," rather, "he sucks because he doesn't get on base enough," and strike outs may or may not be a factor in that.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Mar 20, 2014 -> 01:04 PM) Would anyone here deal Viciedo for Turner? A thousand times yes

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Mar 20, 2014 -> 09:05 AM) How are the park-adjustments calculated? Do all players on the same team receive the same adjustment? I don't know, I've always wondered that. I've always assumed that you use the park factors to dampen the linear weight values of each event, but I've never known how they actually weigh PT in in each park. Like does De Aza's line reflect 9 games at Comerica, for example. Not sure how precise they can actually get. Do you know, wite?

QUOTE (greg775 @ Mar 19, 2014 -> 10:46 PM) How is the Sox defense this spring? It's been pretty bad, from what I've seen.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Mar 20, 2014 -> 07:28 AM) The average splits in LF last year was .259/.323/.412/.735. As an example, De Aza was at .264/.323/.405/.728, so he's almost a perfect example of it. His wRC+ was 97, but that's weighted down because of USCF. It's safe to assume that's your average production out of left field. Tabata was better than that and can certainly still improve considering he's only 25. I think he's certainly a guy whose offensive production will be dependent upon his average, but I don't see splits of .280/.340/.410 as unlikely or unreasonable moving forward especially considering he was even better than that last year, and that's an extremely valuable player in the game today. Yes, I'd prefer elite type talent, but you have to have the pieces to acquire that. Come the 2014-15 offseason, with Tabata coming off a good season, you then have an additional piece that you can trade as well. Like I said, the price has to be right, and I have my doubts about that, but I have no problem bringing him in if it is. Just FYI -- wRC+ is park-adjusted. Woo! What a great stat. http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wrc/

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Mar 19, 2014 -> 02:28 PM) I used median because I am too lazy to add them all together to determine what the average is, but the median should act as the divining point between a league average player and and above average player. I should have said qualified players instead of eligible, as there were 16 qualified LF's last season and Alfonso Soriano was eighth with a wRC+ of 112. There were 23 qualified RF's and Shane Victorino was 12th with wRC+ of 119. Why? I don't understand why you would use the median of the top 16 LFs as the point where a guy is valuable or not. You're just saying "he's not a top 8 LFer."

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Mar 19, 2014 -> 01:15 PM) Or you could expect it to be in 80-90 range as he put up in 2012. Tabata has Podsednik power without strong defense or plus speed on the base paths as his SBs have declined dramatically. This is similar to the Rangel Ravelo situation, the guy can hit but does not have the defensive profile to fit in a position that his bat will play. Hes a one tool player that the Pirates have been trying to dump for a while and keep acquiring players like Byrd and Snider to try and get him out of the lineup. The median wRC+ for eligible RF's last season was 122. The median for eligible LF's was 112. So no, 105-110 is not above average for a corner OF anyway you slice it. What? Median? Why would you use median? Especially to refute my claim of "above average?" And what are you defining as "eligible"? Number 125 of the 250 OFs Fangraphs is showing is Ben Revere at 92 wRC+. Filtering out anything under 50 PA gives me Gerardo Parra at 96. Major League avg. wRC+ by position, 2013: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0 OF: 102 RF: 105 CF: 99 LF: 99 Yeah, guys look bad if you predict that they will repeat their worst season. No idea why we'd expect that though, given that he's coming off his best season. My guess of 105-110 factors regression. Even his career number is 103, which is, in fact, above average any way you slice it.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Mar 19, 2014 -> 01:24 PM) I should say, this is all cost prohibitive. If he came cheap, absolutely I would, and I'd prefer him over Danks. I doubt that's what Pittsburgh has in mind though. Me too, in fact that's why I started the thread. I read a couple different places that the Pirates should be hoping for little more than salary relief. Don't know if that;s true or not, but if it is, I'm all for it. I think he's better than both Viciedo and De Aza today and over the next several seasons.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Mar 19, 2014 -> 01:04 PM) A .340 BABIP is not something that is generally sustainable, even if he does remain on the high end around .315-.320, his profile looks even more like a fourth OF. He is what he is, a contact bat without much else going for him. Even in the post PED era, that is not enough to play a corner spot. Yeah, that's what my post just said: that he wouldn't sustain a .340 BABIP. If he held .315 though, it would be reasonable to expect a wRC+ in the 105 - 110 range (given his 118 last year), which is above average for a corner OF any way you slice it.

I'm still rooting for a trade. This is the one year when it'll be okay if he accidentally don't have enough depth. Let's move an OF or DH.

I've always liked Alexei. At times, I've liked him a LOT. The weird thing about him is how he completely reversed himself in terms of his onfield contribution. He started out as a raw, toolsy power guy with average footspeed and on-base skills, who was thrown into CF because he was bad defensively. Since then, he's slowly morphed in a light-hitting, free-swinging defensive specialist who suddenly steals a ton of bases. Literally the opposite of the typical career path. He's disappointing because he could have been a consistent 20 homer guy if he ever learned some plate discipline. There's no doubt he has the contact skills, but you're going to produce a ton of pop ups and weak grounders when you insist on swinging at stuff at your eyes, off the handle, and 9 inches off the plate. Even as some parts of his game have declined though, he's improved other parts and remained a useful player. But yeah, he's not netting a top 3 prospect.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Mar 19, 2014 -> 10:34 AM) Don't like this Which part? Phegley?

QUOTE (flavum @ Mar 19, 2014 -> 10:29 AM) If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But I still find it unlikely Nieto makes it to Chicago next weekend. There's just no point in keeping Giminez if they think Nieto has any upside at all. Giminez is a nice role player, but his type is readily available every year. Methinks it'll be Nieto.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 19, 2014 -> 10:24 AM) Glad to see the lead 6th starters not being put into the bullpen. Rienzo and Surkamp both should be pitching every 5th day. This

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Mar 19, 2014 -> 09:28 AM) Tabata seems more like a fourth OF. Not enough power to be a corner guy and not good enough defense to play CF. He does not hit LHP's that well and has a pretty high BABIP to average discrepancy, showing that a lot of his success against RHP is likely artificial. Viciedo is younger (6 months) and has real power in his bat. Definitely not willing to give up on Viciedo until after we see him this season. I don't think that's how you want to use BABIP. You want to compare it to league average, and then make concessions for batted ball type. So his BABIP last year was .340 against a league average .297. But he has a career 60% GB rate, which is high compared to a league average of 45%. Groundballs have an inherently high BABIP. So we expect his BABIP to regress toward around .300, but less so than a player with normal batted ball splits. ZIPS/Steamer have him projected in the .306 - .308 range, which seems about right to me -- or maybe just a touch low, depending on how you feel about his speed.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Mar 19, 2014 -> 08:17 AM) It's a long shot but if Houston is *really* down on Chris Carter (sure sounds like it) then Dunn + total salary relief + a reasonable prospect like Carlos Sanchez for Chris Carter would be an interesting proposition. Carter is a Steverson guy from his A's days and although Carter is basically a mirror of Dunn offensively, he'll be 27 this year so there's at least a shot he'll continue to develop into something better. If not, what do you lose, a UT player prospect? You could offer the same type of deal with a relief prospect or somewhat interesting but far away SP spect. But again Houston only does that if they're completely sure they want out on Carter. The thesis of your entire argument has been to get Dunn out of the way to open up playing time for a non-Dunn player. Now you want to replace him a guy who you just described as a "mirror of Dunn offensively," get no salary relief, AND give up a prospect in the process? You just undermined the objective part of your argument, completely. What you have just proposed does nothing but hurt the team's chances to win now and in the future. This is clearly nothing more than a personal vendetta and there's no reason for anyone to take your argument seriously.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Mar 18, 2014 -> 05:50 PM) ^There would have to be another deal to make that work though where the Sox trade an OF. I'd be curious to know what the Twins would give up for DeAza, especially if the Sox threw something decent in with him. Supposedly they are thinking about dealing some spects due to slow ticket sales. Which, then leads me to predict that Tabata just goes straight to the Twins :'(

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Mar 18, 2014 -> 06:51 PM) He's an incremental upgrade. That's not what we need right now. Fill a couple of more holes first with plus players and then settle for some incremental talents. Man I don't know about that. He's a substantially better defender and substantially better hitter than both Viciedo and De Aza, or at least he was last year. Neither one of those dudes even sniffed a 118 wRC+. Projection systems like him to regress, but still. We're starving for that kind of OBP and he's 25 and extended already. De Aza is 30 and going to be a FA soon. I imagine Tabata being that #2 hitter we haven't really had since like Ray Durham or something.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Mar 18, 2014 -> 05:50 PM) We already have extra OFers we are trying to trade, so I don't see the reason to acquire even more. Well, that's why we'd trade Viciedo. Tabata is 25 and already on an affordable extension. And is a plus defender. So he's better than all of our extras. Otherwise, yeah, we'd have to DFA De Aza or something

The Pirates are shopping Jose Tabata because they have too many OF and don't want to block Polanco. He is signed for three or four more years at between $3m - $6m each and then has a bunch of options. He put up .282/.342/.429 last year, good for a 118 wRC+, over about two thirds of a season. His baserunning seems a little below average. His defense, by TZ/UZR, seems a tick above average. For some reason, I keep reading that all they'll get is salary relief. What am I missing? He hit only 6 homers, so he has a lot less power than your typical corner OF, but .340+ OBP doesn't grow on trees anymore. I want him. The Pirates need a 1B. I want them to have Viciedo. Am I crazy? http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/03/pira...ose-tabata.html

QUOTE (Jose Paniagua @ Mar 18, 2014 -> 02:37 PM) Not fitting the bill on this puts him in company shared by, oh, all but 2 or 3 people in the history of Earth Don't blame me, blame all 700 players/media personalities who keep comparing him to Miguel Cabrera!

QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Mar 18, 2014 -> 03:22 PM) I view tools and skill to be pretty much the same thing. Different players are going to have different skills that are part of their overall toolset. It's the skill vs. will comparison that will set players apart. Granted, if a guy has little skill, all the will in the world won't help him at the MLB level. But, if you have two players with similar skills and one busts his ass day in and day out to get better, he's going to succeed over a guy who tries to fall back to his "god-given" skills. Garcia is a guy with the skills to be a great player, but he's going to have to bust his ass. See I see "skill" as what you develop, tools as something like ability. Like a pitcher may have a crazy good arm, but his path to developing command and control is a "skill." Avisail has great strength, speed, hand-eye coordination. These are his abilities, gifts, tools, etc. But the "skill" of hitting is pitch recognition, pitch selection, muscle memory, body control, swing mechanics, mental planning, etc. Anyway I'm not saying I'm the authority on how those words are used, but that's what I've meant when I've used them.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Mar 18, 2014 -> 02:38 PM) 1. So he doesnt hit like probably one of the best hitters EVER? Thats CRAZY!!!!!!! 2. The guy put up a .775 OPS with us last year at age 22, and has tremendous upside. So yes, he has great talent. Come on, Rock, don't ignore context. You're not like these other guys. He put up a .775 OPS on the strength of a .370 BABIP, over 42 games. Players ride .370 BABIPs all the way to MVP awards. A .775 OPS on that BABIP is somewhere between disappointing and very disappointing. Furthermore, he did it with a league average LD% somehow, which is numerical corroboration to what we all already observed -- a whole bunch of seeing-eye grounders and shanked pop-up ducksnorts. If he does everything that way he did last year, that BABIP is going to drop substantially. It may stay above .300 if he continues to hit 8-10% more GB than average, but take 50 or so points off of that BABIP and stay around 3.0% BB rate, and that average-ish RF OPS will very quickly become below average. The dude needs to learn to take bad pitches and work a count. He's 22, so hopefully he does, but he has shown us nothing so far. He has shown remarkable tools, and no skills. It depends how you define talent, I guess, but I always think of it more toward the skill side of that spectrum. EDIT: Also, I'm not expecting him to be one of the greatest hitters ever, and I'm not saying he has to be him to be successful -- but that's the comparison everyone is making that I'm criticizing in my post. I'm tired of people comparing him to Miguel Cabrera. As players, they are nothing alike. EDIT 2: Oh, and he looks like Manny Ramirez in the OF. I really hope that changes fast

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 18, 2014 -> 01:42 PM) Joey Nowak ‏@joeynowak 16m Bo Jackson thought Avisail Garcia was Miguel Cabrera. Common mistake. Said he just "oozes talent." Bo on Garcia: "He looks more like an NFL defensive end than a right fielder." Whatever talent he's oozing, it isn't hitting or fielding a baseball. I get it, he's a physical specimen. Someone teach him how to play. He may look like Cabrera, but he sure as hell doesn't hit like him.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 18, 2014 -> 10:41 AM) I don't mind Vin. I have heard the Brewers, Rangers, and Angels crews in the last week. Talk about a load of suck. Yeah, especially the Brewers guys. I thought I heard they were good. Are we sure that was the actual in-season team? Could be their version of Bill Melton, for example.