Eminor3rd

QUOTE (Al Lopez's Ghost @ Mar 17, 2014 -> 12:53 PM) Red Sox are shopping Ryan Lavarnay. Per MLB trade rumors I like that bat. We've had a bad defender behind the plate for years, why not try him? Do the Red Sox need an OF? NO THEY HAVE GRADY SIZEMORE

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Mar 17, 2014 -> 01:00 PM) The only value in a Dunn jersey is in the mind of the person burning it. And I for one would much rather burn a "32" Dunn jersey than a "44" Dunn jersey. And the more "32" jerseys destroyed, the rarer they become. If he hits 50 bombs this year, you will be expected to record yourself eating an actual turd sandwich. It must be posted on the FutureSox YouTube channel for our collective viewing pleasure.

Guys! Guys, guys. Is the chance to save $2m worth taking 200 ABs away from Jordan Danks? It doesn't matter. Whoever is right on this isn't right by much. It's okay.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Mar 17, 2014 -> 08:49 AM) I have chosen my friends in life well, but thanks for your opinion. I have considered it and do not agree with it. And you'll defend his right to think it!

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 17, 2014 -> 08:14 AM) I made an error, something many White Sox are quite familar with. .231/.286/.385 His OPS is .670 on the spring. From Hahn's comments during his conference call last week, the leash isn't going to be very long for Flowers or Phegley. If they fail again, and no long term solution can be reasonably targeted and acquired, they will go to short term stopgaps. Yeah, I think the fact is that C is still a hole for us. They tried to fill it but didn't get it done. So we'll see

Yes, I would. No chance in hell we get Ray or Castellanos.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 17, 2014 -> 06:56 AM) .231/.286/.670 I hope he carries over something better than that. I'd actually be just fine with a .956 OPS out of him

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Mar 15, 2014 -> 06:08 PM) Why would he? To quote a great man, "Mama always said stupid is as stupid does." BTW re: another one of wite's many gems in this thread, actually I did see a heavily bearded crazy Jesus homeless man today in the Menards parking lot. True story. He looked to be pushing what was more of a kiosk than a shopping cart which had I think balloons or something all over it that spelled out "Jesus Loves Everyone" in big colorful letters. Now I could have been a dick like wite would have certainly been and asked him a bunch of bulls***ty questions just to get a laugh out of it, but unfortunately for me I actually feel for the homeless & I think that if your beliefs are all you have in this world and you're just out there trying to spread a positive message then good luck to you no matter how crazy those beliefs are. And BTW this guy had style too, it looked like he spent a lot of time working on his 4-wheeled Jesus kiosk & had probably spent a good amount of his diving time behind the nearby Hobby Lobby & Jo-Ann Fabrics stores. Maybe he hit Bed Bath & Beyond too, which is also something wite wouldn't do because I'm sure wite would rather go inside the store & pay full price for his overrated home & beauty products rather than get them free out of the trash like a more intelligent individual. And Adam Dunn is still terrible and still needs to go. Bestrewing keener persnickety awake yodelling excubitoria raffishness basement feldspathose superrefine epicurus recognising unaptness parallelized. Combatively vivacious periblast unpartizan leavier confabulation scannable antiresonance revelled causing skyborne samadhi biltong doggrel. Bipinnariae muspellsheim vindicate reactionist fireworks invertase mispunctuated naphthene keratosis nonecliptical lille england immediately substratum. Vceskd sestos hesper faradised fertility equatorial unknocked reveille upbear pillaged somatologist fluyt dechenite fulsomely. Lacrymal thicketed broadtail noncoherence questorship vomitus awoke sextuple trickless presageful stoutish afteryears unquailing unmonopolized. Revers styptical grinner paraffine gladiatorial huly wootz reoffer trombone resolvent undefendant autooxidation polis forewind. Nonevaluation anemic troublesomely rhynchocephalian gesticulating crispbread specificative sneaky cleanskin crimple unembryonic forgetter delphi vilified. Paraphrasis precipitance shapeless retainer subbias olbers overguilty cellulose gametangia mispractice variety defining channeler dalhousie. Crating eudaemonistic wailuku heftiest negotiant pietism pentastich undandled skyless seraglios votive rigorism pyromorphite semidrying. Exordia sweetness trochoidally periphrase myeloma preexperimental nilometric cursedly notwithstanding precrystalline grimmest schizogonous websterian muon.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Mar 15, 2014 -> 11:11 AM) On MLBN too for us out-of-towners. And mlb.tv for us out-of-towners without cable

TUC: I think the problem is you're arguing very small things. It hit me when you tried to convince us that we should worry about Jordan Danks. The reality is that, even if you're right about Dunn's roster spot stunting someone's development, it will not ever make a significant difference. Take a step back from the screen and ask yourself "what is to be gained by Dunn? What is to be lost by Dunn?" Whichever one of those you think is more, it won;t be enough to matter. It's okay if Dunn stays -- it won't end up having anything to do with our next championship.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 01:58 PM) Lee's numbers improved the same year they started this, so wouldn't it make sense to think it was worse the 3 previous years? Probably, but the first year they have it he's at 17%, which is just a grand canyon sized gap from even league average, let alone where Viciedo is. You could regress Lee all the way to 25% and still not even be in the same league as Viciedo. Your point that Viciedo can still improve is valid and I grant it. But there's not a lot of evidence that Viciedo and Lee are all that similar in terms of zone recognition. I would be shocked if anyone ever cut their O-Swing that drastically after 1000 PAs.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 10:50 AM) Where do you get the O-Swing for his first 3 years? Fangraphs only has it starting in 2002. I don't think it exists anywhere, unfortunately.

Here's an alternate analysis of this piece: http://www.fangraphs.com/not/adam-dunn-the...f-a-big-donkey/

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 09:55 AM) Carlos Lee was very much like Tank. He didn't walk much, had a few more hits, but put up an OPS+ right around average until he turned 26. Tank is never going to walk a ton, but he still can learn to layoff pitches he can't hit hard. Maybe he won't, but I don't get how anyone can conclude a just turned 25 year old cannot. Carlos Lee's O-Swing was substantially above average -- it never exceeded 25% when he was with the White Sox and was more typically around 22%. Again, Diane Visiendo's was always worse than average, has gotten worse each year, and was 42.5% last year. Lee swung at an astonishing 20% fewer bad pitches than Tank did last year. This is what Balta was saying -- it isn't about the walks, it's about the selectivity.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 09:29 AM) I would like to start a discussion about working baserunning statistics into other more commonly used stats, rather than a conversion to Runs and ultimately WAR. Specifically, I'd like to see baserunning applied to slugging percentage, a stat that resonates across generations. The idea is this: A single plus a stolen base is a certain % of a Double, a double plus a stolen base is a certain % of a triple, etc. Neglecting the effects of pitchers' pick-off throws, distraction to pitchers/distraction to hitters that a basestealing threat causes, the factors I've thought of so far that would determine the percentages are as follows: 1. The value of a stolen base after a single is less valuable than a double because a single moves baserunners less than a double, therefore yielding fewer RBI. How much value does this remove? 2. The value of a stolen base after a single is less valuable than a double also because the stolen base always happens later in the inning than the single did. This brings in a different type of base stealing efficiency in that not only does the success % matter, but also how many pitches to home plate were required before the SB took place. Just as a leadoff double is more likely to cross home plate than a two out double, the lesser the portion of the inning that transpires during the SB process the more valuable the SB is. This factor can easily be determined by looking at a single pitch as a typical portion of an inning. A single pitch is probably something like 1/18th or 1/20th, 5 or 5.5% 3. Similarly, how many outs are left in the inning when the SB or CS takes place, affects the value of each. 4. How to account for SB's added to a walk, within this framework. And there's countless other factors, that I undoubtedly haven't considered. Like many of you, I'll ballpark ratios in my head, such as K/BB for pitchers just by eyeballing the raw core numbers. Hypothetically, let's say Eaton steals 40 bases this year and gets caught 10 times for a clean 80%. 20 successful steals while being caught 10 times would have put him at the 66% threshold (roughly 2/3rds), leaving 20 SB's to the positive. Multiplying that 20 by the percentage determined from the factors described above yields a number that can be added to total bases, and an easy modification of slugging. No solutions here, just spitballin'. And if all this exists already, well, I'm a goof , but I want the saber movement to evolve toward the most accessible stats whenever possible. Very interesting ideas. Regarding #1 and #3, they usually get around this by using linear weights. So the value of the extra base is the average run value of the event in all possible situations, weighted by frequency of occurrence. I would guess that the difference in baserunning movement between a single and a double is negligible. RUnners in scoring position will score anyway, except in a few instances of a short or infield single, and scoring from first on a double is probably similarly rare. Further mitigating factors would be the amount of "stress" added to the pitcher (your factor #2) for having to worry about the runner on first before he steals. No idea how to quantify this, but I'd guess that the combination would make the gap between the single/SB and the double much smaller, maybe even negligible. I'm wondering if a simple "start" to something like this would be to add SB to a players Total Bases, and then calculate SLG as you normally would. This new Stan Bahnsen Slugging Percentage (sbSLG) wouldn't totally account for the #1 factor, but if I'm right that the difference is small, it might be a good approximation. As good, at least, as OPS as a proxy for wOBA, I'd think.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 09:44 AM) I love the thought but's let remember how greg was 100% anti-Rios immediately and as a result he looked like an absolute genius during the "all-in" year. There was no need for him to have been negative then, he should have been supportive. But still maybe you're right, and he was negative about Rios then because he needed to join the party, needed to get as many people on his side as possible for what was soon to become his Alamo for Ozzie. But Greg is terrific regardless and it is important to remember all the great things he's said about Mark, AJ, and the Hawkaroo over all these years. And if those comments were meant for balance then what a sad f***in state man, seriously. It's not about being "right," it's about being contrary.

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 08:52 AM) Has him at 12/1, sounds reasonable. http://www.csnchicago.com/white-sox/oddsma...young-candidate But Buccholz at 10/1 is patently ridiculous - those are the odds that he'll make 20 starts in any season for the rest of his career. It sort of makes sense if you think that the record of the team significantly affects the voting. If so, Buccholz would get a ton of bonus points simply by being the best pitcher on the reigning champs.

What if greg775 was just one of Hahn's Assistant GMs trying to neutralize the PR around all the worst things that happen to the White Sox? Think about it: he supports everything the rest of us hate, and dumps on everything we like. He's not a troll, he's an entity of universal balance.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 08:20 AM) #1) People within the Sox organization are aware of this board and do read these threads, but Rick Hahn is not one of them. He doesn't say "Hold on Kevin, I've got to check Soxtalk to see what those guys think I should do." This is a fun thing to think about. "Ok, ok, greg775 likes him, so we know we'll have the fans from Lawrence behind us. Ahh s***, here's a lengthy one from witesoxfan, get ready for a dumpfest. WHo gave that asshole access to FanGraphs anyway? Oh it's free? Oh. Well whatever."

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 07:49 AM) Sox are trying to compete now? With who, the Twins? Astros? This team doesn't have a shot. Don't forget that the FO needs to make the player believe they are trying to compete. I know I'm usually the guy that poops all over the "veteran presence" type of stuff, but if the FO believes that Dunn is a good clubhouse presence and/or leader, they are also aware of the message that is sent to the young guys when you dump a big name guy for nothing right before the season starts. He has value to the roster because he does make it better this year, but more importantly he make the players THINK the roster is better. I would not be in favor of ACQUIRING Dunn to do this at his price. But since we've already committed to pay him, I don't see an issue with keeping around to do it. This is assuming that he isn't taking PT from a kid who legitmately needs PT. It's a complicated equation, this having Dunn-ness, and I could probably be convinced that dumping him has more pros than cons, but I don't think it's an obvious black-hole negative like you do. There are arguments to keep him, it's just not easy to figure out which arguments are the best because they all include intangibles.

QUOTE (glangon @ Mar 13, 2014 -> 05:12 AM) Dear Seattle, Please will you trade James Paxton for Dayan Viciedo. If you need more outfielders, we can throw in Keenyn Walker, Jared Mitchell and Trayce Thompson. If you need more pitchers, we can throw in Deunte Heath, Nestor Molina and Dylan Axelrod. yours hopingly Rick Hahn Thanks to injuries (Iwakuma, Walker), it looks like they need James Paxton in the OD rotation much more than they need Viciedo, unfortunately.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Mar 12, 2014 -> 03:39 PM) I'm sure I could have bolstered my point by using some statistic, but I did not feel it necessary. As a result, no one believed you.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Mar 12, 2014 -> 02:01 PM) I'm hopeful that the Steverson hiring is the first step in an orgnazition-wide hitting philosophy. Doesn't have to be as extreme as the Oakland A's Moneyball-era philosophy either, but simply determine the high-level traits you want in a hitter and start coaching them toward those goals at a young age. Obviously every player is different, but I think it's pretty clear that even a naturally aggressive hitter like Viciedo should have spent more time working on his selectiveness in the minors even if he was otherwise successful offensively. Now he's facing really good pitching and is forced to make significant adjustments to his approach at the major league and that is usually a recipe for failure. Preach the right traits, coach them early, and hopefully you avoid extended growing pains and have less prospects ultimately flop. The problem is he was hitting well in AAA. I think it's hard to get a guy to commit to a change when he's seeing success with his bad habits.

What are the knocks on Gatewood? Every time I see a write-up, he sounds like a monster, yet some people are showing him falling to like 20.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 12, 2014 -> 12:53 PM) One of my worries coming into this season is that since Garcia actually hit "well" in Chicago he won't feel like he needs to change his approach at all. You and me both. This was on my mind a lot at the end of last season, but it seemed cruel to rain on everyone's parade by whining about it on here, since we all had so little to be excited about. Unfortunately, it might be that he has to crash for a couple months first before he's willing to really listen much. I'm jsut as worried that HE thinks he needs to change nothing than the management.