Eminor3rd

QUOTE (Stan Bahnsen @ Mar 4, 2014 -> 11:15 AM) I'll be watching Hedges closely and hoping he performs well enough to make your scenario a reality. Will similarly be rooting for Max Stassi with the Stros'. And, will also be watching Trahan in the AZ system as thev'ye committed long-term to MMontero. We really need a lefty or SH in this position, with a modicum of power. AZ recently said they were thinking about trading a SS for a young C to come up after Montero, so I'd guess Trahan is probably either unavailable or very disappointing. Then again, practically nothing that Kevin Towers does makes sense to me.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Mar 3, 2014 -> 09:04 PM) That's what happens when you need to win now. He's played all of 4 spring training games. That is insanity. I'm not buying this at all.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Mar 3, 2014 -> 05:29 PM) Jim Bowden says the Dodgers are poised to move on from Alex Guerrero and get a 2B that they feel can better help them to a WS. He then lists Dee Gordon, Chone Figgins, Justin Turner as internal solutions and Stephen Drew, Nick Franklin, Darwin Barney, Scooter Gennet or Rickie Weeks, Daniel Murphy, Beckham, and Danny Espinosa as external options. I'll add Uggla as an option for them as well. But thinking of the big picture, what about a Semien for Pederson deal? I know Pederson is more highly rated, but Semien can contribute right now. Which side says no? Wait, what? They are giving up on Guerrero, who they signed to a ~$30m contract like 5 months ago?

Sickels' schtick is that he "uses the numbers" to scout. Accordingly, his lists almost always deviate the most from consensus and it appears that everyone in the media takes him less seriously. There's usually some controversial guy he's trying to blow up. His biggest flop in recent memory was Nestor Molina right before we acquired him. I think last year he had Carlos Sanchez in the top 100 or something.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 1, 2014 -> 10:47 PM) I think we'll get the end products at some point. I'm not saying you're wrong, because I have no idea -- but why? I can't think of any reason for it to be made public. If it's ever public, then the teams wouldn't have to pay for it.

QUOTE (DirtySox @ Mar 2, 2014 -> 12:37 PM) Law has an insider article noting that Beede is on track to be a top 5 pick. In this article he says that only Kolek and Rodon are obviously better at this point.

QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Mar 3, 2014 -> 05:07 AM) I love to see the Sox acquire Kevin Gausman from Baltimore, and I am praying to the baseball gods that Hahn can pry Gary Sanchez away from the Yankees Even the good lawd, Jesus Allen Christ himself, whose legacy has driven millions of hapless humans to fanatic slaughter for millennia, couldn't get the Orioles to send us Kevin Gausman. Unless you want to move Sale.

I don't think GMs care nearly as much for whether or not a guy has been a "closer" anymore. It's extremely unlikely a contender would be acquiring Boggs to be a closer anyway -- I think they'll hand the job to whoever pitches the best. Boggs may get that shot if someone else drops the ball.

I'll take the under. But not by a lot.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Mar 1, 2014 -> 03:45 PM) More Game changer for the industry. Unfortunately we peasants will most likely never have access to it.

Here's something that just came out today and illustrates greatly the effect of context on GB pitchers: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/exceptional...uches-everyone/

Yeah I mean I like it when we get good players, but I can't come up with any reason this might happen.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 11:41 AM) xFIP doesn't do it. This really doesn't show a regression for pitchers. It will predict how many runs they will give up if HR or BABIP values change. For example if a pitcher gives up an abnormally high number of HR, you can predict the runs for the following year if you change the value. Same with BABIP. If it's high one year, you can predict the decrease in runs if you lower the BABIP to what the average pitcher had that year. The regression model just uses past variables to determine their weight in the dependent varible. You can use this to predict fututre performance. This is what I use to determine which applicants to our DPT program have a good chance to pass our license exam thus which applicants we accept. I see. Well go invent stuff! You should definitely read The Book and Baseball Between the Numbers to get a sense of what was done early on in DIPS so you don't end up repeating something unnecessarily. But this is an area where a breakthrough could definitely be made.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 02:54 PM) Links? I would actually be interested in reading up on that http://www.amazon.com/The-Book-Playing-Per...l/dp/1597971294 This is where the original research was done -- I haven't been able to find anywhere online that reposts it in its entirety. However, here's an oft-cited summary of the findings: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17...-your-lineup-by

QUOTE (raBBit @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 05:16 PM) My favorite was when he cited Viciedo's speed as the reason he shouldn't DH. You have to wonder if he watches the games. There really is no reason he should have his job. I mean what does he really add? Lol

QUOTE (Dunt @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 01:14 PM) B/c the 2 hole is for the best situational hitter and he doesnt strike me as the best situational hitter. I challenge your assertion that the 2 hole is for the best situational hitter. I know that's the traditional mindset, but there's a ton of research showing that the 2 hitter should be among your best run producers, based on the types of RISP situations that are most common across all nine spots.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 11:36 AM) Better yet, HEWHOSHALLNOTBESIGNED

QUOTE (Dunt @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 11:09 AM) Avisail should be batting 3 or 5 for the rest of his career. Putting him in the 2 hole is stupid. Why?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 11:19 AM) You mean HEWHOSHALLNOTBENAMED? Lol I actually like the idea of that being his nickname around here forever.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 06:03 PM) There was a time when folks were drooling all over themselves for Jesus Montero, a Yankee catching prospect. Now they mention some minor league guy and want to dump Gordon Beckham for an unproven prospect. Amazing Yes, because Jesus Montero is worse than Gordon Beckham, all minor league prospects will be worse than Gordon Beckham.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 10:46 AM) I'm not sure what you're asking. With this sample HR accounts for 47% of the predictive factor in the runs a pitcher gave up. Add BABIP into the mix and it's 69%. All you need to do is plug their values into the equation and it will show the predicted runs scored. Right, I'm saying that since those are such high factors in runs allowed, then if you can do the same analysis for what accounts for HR and BABIP totals, and find a significant result, you could forecast regression for pitchers. Of course, maybe that's what xFIP does already, not sure.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 10:07 AM) It has produced nothing, but that hasnt stopped them from trading overhyped prospects like Montero. That one didnt work out for them because Michael Pineda's arm fell off, but it still happens for the Yankees Well yeah, with the Mariners.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 10:07 AM) I ran the numbers this morning and was shocked. I looked at variables predicting runs given up by pitchers over the last two years. The R2 was 47.5 for HR alone, 69.6 for HR,BABIP; 82.2 for HR, BABIP, BB; 86 for HR,BABIP,BB,HR/9 and 90 for HR,BABIP, BB, HR/9 and FIP. All of the models had a sig. of .01 or lower. This was using a stepwise linear regression. Granted it should have gone up when including HR/9 and FIP as one of the internal variables there is HR which is 47.55 of the variability on it's own. So in the two year sample (i only included pitchers with a combined 300 innings in the last two years) there is a high predictability of runs scored against a pitcher with HR, BABIP and BB. I guess FIP is a very good predictor of pitchers performance in giving up runs. I'm going to run a larger sample for a lrger number of years to see if it still holds true over time. If you can isolate factors that account for the variability of HR and BABIP, you may be stumbling upon a revolution.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 08:12 AM) Since we're gloating I am even amazed with myself at how much better and more active this board has been since my crusade killed off the catch all. I was right. Some threads are open too long still but all in all it has been good. You mean in that Ervin Santana has taken over every thread instead of just one

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 09:19 AM) I'd like to see the overall numbers on that, just to see which is which. The 2 hole is one of the most important spots in the lineup, and I know you wouldn't disagree with that, but you also want to see a guy who can draw a walk there. I think Garcia hitting there might be the best of a bad situation, but he would ideally hit about 6th. I really hope Semien can be at least a .260/.340/.410 kind of player at the big league level because that would slot in really well at the 2 hole. It's in The Book if you have that lying around.