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QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 11:19 AM) You mean HEWHOSHALLNOTBENAMED? Lol I actually like the idea of that being his nickname around here forever.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 06:03 PM) There was a time when folks were drooling all over themselves for Jesus Montero, a Yankee catching prospect. Now they mention some minor league guy and want to dump Gordon Beckham for an unproven prospect. Amazing Yes, because Jesus Montero is worse than Gordon Beckham, all minor league prospects will be worse than Gordon Beckham.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 10:46 AM) I'm not sure what you're asking. With this sample HR accounts for 47% of the predictive factor in the runs a pitcher gave up. Add BABIP into the mix and it's 69%. All you need to do is plug their values into the equation and it will show the predicted runs scored. Right, I'm saying that since those are such high factors in runs allowed, then if you can do the same analysis for what accounts for HR and BABIP totals, and find a significant result, you could forecast regression for pitchers. Of course, maybe that's what xFIP does already, not sure.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 10:07 AM) It has produced nothing, but that hasnt stopped them from trading overhyped prospects like Montero. That one didnt work out for them because Michael Pineda's arm fell off, but it still happens for the Yankees Well yeah, with the Mariners.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 10:07 AM) I ran the numbers this morning and was shocked. I looked at variables predicting runs given up by pitchers over the last two years. The R2 was 47.5 for HR alone, 69.6 for HR,BABIP; 82.2 for HR, BABIP, BB; 86 for HR,BABIP,BB,HR/9 and 90 for HR,BABIP, BB, HR/9 and FIP. All of the models had a sig. of .01 or lower. This was using a stepwise linear regression. Granted it should have gone up when including HR/9 and FIP as one of the internal variables there is HR which is 47.55 of the variability on it's own. So in the two year sample (i only included pitchers with a combined 300 innings in the last two years) there is a high predictability of runs scored against a pitcher with HR, BABIP and BB. I guess FIP is a very good predictor of pitchers performance in giving up runs. I'm going to run a larger sample for a lrger number of years to see if it still holds true over time. If you can isolate factors that account for the variability of HR and BABIP, you may be stumbling upon a revolution.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 08:12 AM) Since we're gloating I am even amazed with myself at how much better and more active this board has been since my crusade killed off the catch all. I was right. Some threads are open too long still but all in all it has been good. You mean in that Ervin Santana has taken over every thread instead of just one

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 09:19 AM) I'd like to see the overall numbers on that, just to see which is which. The 2 hole is one of the most important spots in the lineup, and I know you wouldn't disagree with that, but you also want to see a guy who can draw a walk there. I think Garcia hitting there might be the best of a bad situation, but he would ideally hit about 6th. I really hope Semien can be at least a .260/.340/.410 kind of player at the big league level because that would slot in really well at the 2 hole. It's in The Book if you have that lying around.

I didn't realize Montas was still considered a potential starter. Awesome list, btw.

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Feb 27, 2014 -> 07:36 AM) I wouldn't be too upset with Garcia in the 2 hole, but I'd rather see him hit 3rd where he can be a bit more of a run producer. If Beckham can pull it together, he is a perfect fit for the 2 hole. Two hole gets tons more run producing opportunities than people think. It's arguably more important than the 3 hole in terms of raw ABs with runners in scoring position. The problem is, of course, that we need OBP at the top, and Avi is a hacker. I really really really hope he learns to recognize balls and strikes, because those little pop ups aren;t going to keep falling for singles forever.

Relevant: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/howd-we-do-a-year-ago/

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 04:46 PM) Somebody other than Ervin Santana? This is even MORE correct than wite's answer of the exact correct pitcher.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 04:41 PM) I can't find numbers that match that exactly, but it's incredibly similar to Sale's career numbers. I'm honestly not sure Sox fans appreciate just how talented Chris Sale is. If he stays healthy - and I can't knock on enough wood - he should end up with multiple Cy Youngs. Correct! Those are Chris Sale's numbers as a starter, his RP numbers removed. That's what makes that line incredible -- it's WAY easier to pitch well one inning at a time.

QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 04:12 PM) Unless they package someone else. I believe the Yankees are also looking for bullpen help. However, how much help would Elmore be for the Yankees unless they're just looking for depth? Well, their everyday second baseman is Brian Roberts, and their every day SS is Derek Jeter, both of which are injury prone. They're also betting on a Kelly Johnson bounceback that may not come, so I'd think the Yankees are in great need of IF depth. If you think about it, Cervelli/Romine are essentially the C versions of Jake Elmore: pre-arb depth with some small upside. I don;t see why the Yankees wouldn't at least consider Elmore + a guy like Duente Heath for one of those two guys.

Aside from Buerhle, mine is actually Matt Thornton. I don't know why but I really latched onto him. I even have a shirsey, lol.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 02:35 PM) It would really be selling low on Beckham (who showed some improvement with the bat) to trade him for one of these backup catchers, none of whom is a top prospect. Keppinger? Fine. It would also hurt our D a lot for Keppinger to play 2B. Selling low on Beckham? Do you still think this is just a four season-long slump? The improvement was 103 games of 88 wRC+. Also, if he was recently showed improvement, wouldn't it be selling high?

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 02:40 PM) He's had 110 plate appearances at the AA level. That is not a guy the Sox should even be considering unless it's at the deadline and he's been having a good year. Unless something comes up in the next 3-4 weeks, I'd rather just have Phlowglieto take the spot. Oh I wasn't assuming he'd even sniff the Majors this year. But the Sox don't exactly need to get a 2014 Major Leaguer in return for a member of their glut of bad second basemen

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 01:30 PM) I'd argue that the best pitcher - starter or reliever - of the modern era is Mariano Rivera. His numbers: 8.22 K/9 2.01 BB/9 52.5% GB% Also, guess who this is: 9.26 K/9 2.13 BB/9 45.7% GB

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 01:30 PM) I think they've done quite a bit of this and it's where they derive the statistics from. So many of these variables show such little significance towards the runs scored with such high variability that it's impossible to say that one is more important than the other, but it essentially follows basic guidelines and sounds logic. 1) A strikeout is the best guarantee for an out. 2) A walk is never an out. 3) If the batter hits it, you prefer it to be on the ground because it's almost never a home run and the batter will usually not advance beyond 1B. 4) A flyball is preferable to a line drive, but those can be dangerous. 5) You do not ever want to give up line drives. Your ideal pitcher is one who has good command, gets a fair amount of strike outs, and keeps the ball on the ground. I'd argue that the best pitcher - starter or reliever - of the modern era is Mariano Rivera. His numbers: 8.22 K/9 2.01 BB/9 52.5% GB% Those can be supplemented, and you can be great without 1 of them, but I generally think you need at least two of them to be a great pitcher. You left out most shocking number: 0.50 HR/9

QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 01:00 PM) I know that GB% alone isn't a key factor. Maybe it's K/BB or K% and GB%. I think the best place to start is to look at the pitchers who gave up the least runs and do a step wise linear regression to see what factors pop up. Well, K and BB are two of the pillars of FIP. That's not to say GB isn't important, it's just that it's context-dependent and thus a relative factor. DIPS theory is essentially trying to give you as complete a picture of the pitcher alone as it directly contributes to runs saved. Other important metrics are derived statistics and are critical for seeing how a player fits into your own situation, but aren't useful in comparing players in an absolute sense.

That last thing Gary Sanchez needs to do is sacrifice an ounce of anything to gain some pop. I would read any weight gain on his part as a big negative until he demonstrates otherwise. He's another hacker with whose defensive improvements have "impressed" Yankees scouts. Maybe it's real, maybe not, but he seems like he's got a ton of the flaws that we already have in abundance on this team.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 12:19 PM) Would you take Arrieta and Strope or Avisail Garcia? Garcia. Please explain the relevance of this random question.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 12:23 PM) Why would this be a need? Its definitely an option, but far from a certainty. Gillaspie is likely the opening day 3B, it would seem there are other options to be sent to AAA that would not require exposing anyone to waivers. Bench: Konerko Catcher Keppinger De Aza Problems: No backup SS, no room for any prospects to make the team. The more I think about it, though -- why not wait for your promising callups to miss the Super Two deadline? Might be that's when the "odd man out" gets dumped.

QUOTE (Nunnigan @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 10:54 AM) It would surprise me if that happened. As it stands now, the Sox would likely carry only 11 pitchers into OD. The positional roster needs to be at least reduced by one in order to protect the pitching staff from wearing down as the season progresses If the Sox can get rid of Kepp, with Phegley in the process, its a no brainer Yeah, as it stands, Gillaspie will need to be exposed to waivers unless the Sox are planning to DFA Keppinger if they can't move him.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 09:51 AM) I really don't know why the Sox would want to rush Semien. I agree. If you have to pay Keppinger anyway, why not use him to buy some time? Unless Semien just shreds ST, it makes sense to start him in AAA.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 26, 2014 -> 09:49 AM) I was looking at it from the pitching aspect of GB% not the hitting. Still seems to be that good pitching beats good hitting especially in the post season. If LD rate is correlated to BABIP, it makes sense that a high GB% or lower LD rate would be correlated with better pitching and poorer hitting. I need to find the numbers though. Keep in mind that high GB% correlates strongly with higher BABIP, so a GB pitcher will be expected to give up more hits but fewer homers. The addition of hits can be mitigated, of course, with a better infield defense. Theoretically, for GB% to be considered a thing to seek, you'd have to know you had a good infield, and, ideally, you'd have to play in a park where homers are a threat to be avoided at all costs. Historically, FB-heavy pitchers tend to be inconsistent because there doesn't appear to be much of any year-to-year correlation in HR/FB%. If you see a guy who looks amazing or horrible out of the blue, there's a good chance he had a big shift in his HR/FB% that will probably not holdover to the next season. There's been a lot of content recently online about using this as a factor to identify buy-low regression candidates. I can't find it unfortunately, but I read an article a couple years ago about how Mark Buerhle relied more on the defense of his teammates than any other pitcher at the time. This was derived from looking at GB%, BABIP, LOB%, and a bunch of other stuff that basically pointed to him being successful when positive things happened in the field of play -- partially from defenders sucking up a way above average amount of ground balls and working well with him to control the running game. It makes intuitive sense, of course, because he doesn't strike a lot of guys out. He's been an awesome pitcher, but he may have been significantly less awesome playing in front of a different team.