Eminor3rd

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 08:32 PM) I don't make up anything, and don't twist words. The fact is Paulino is 31, hasn't thrown a pitch in a major league game since Paul Konerko had an 1.100 OPS and anyone thinking he will make career highs in starts and innings and be better than he ever has been before, isn't using reality coming up with those thoughts. He may or may not, DA. It's a shot in the dark. The Sox believe he hasn't reached his upside and they are not insane to think so. He's never even managed to pitch a full season because of injuries. No one knows what a healthy season looks like from him, but I'll trust the professionals to evaluate his health and potential before I'd trust you or anyone else here. And if the Sox want to risk one ninetieth or whatever of their payroll because they think he might be a good trade chip, then what the hell is the downside? I'd be livid if they gave him a huge contract, but they didn't. It's not even a SIGNIFICANT contract. QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 08:13 PM) Many posters here think it's a win if a player outperforms their contract regardless of whether the team is any better. There's something wrong with an acquisition when the best thing that can be said is if he is awful it doesn't hurt the rebuild. Low reward move that in the end does nothing. Marty, you're ignoring posts again. You're the only one that believes "the best thing that can happen is if he's awful he wont hurt the rebuild." Stop pretending five people haven't explained that AND given an example of the best case scenario that happened within the last two years. If you think teams acquire players based on track record and NOT on potential, you haven't been paying attention to ANYTHING that's happened around baseball the past five years.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 06:27 PM) Scott Feldman is going to get you more in a trade than Felipe Paulino. Feldman had enough suitors last offseason to command $6M. Unless Paulino throws up ~120 innings of 3.8 ERA. A rental is a rental. GMs don't choose players based on name value.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 05:52 PM) More like no reward signing You'd look like a damn fool trying to sell Paulino for much at the deadline. Even in a best case scenario, the other GM will say "yes, but it's Felipe Paulino . . ." This low reward signing just spinns the wheels of the rebuild. Yeah, for sure. It reminds me a lot of when the Cubs did the exact same thing with Scott Feldman, signing him to a low-risk, one year contract hoping he could recover from a couple consecutive injury-riddled seasons and show some of the upside that made him attractive before. When the deadline came around, all they were able to do with him was flip him for a former top prospect showing signs of rebound (Jake Arrieta) and a fireballing, pre-arbitration reliever (Pedro Strop). If you told me that one year, $6m contract was only going to return two promising, controllable pitchers and ~120 innings of 3.86 ERA production, I would have been really upset as a Cubs fan. But, I just chalk it up to typical "Hail Theo" crap. Definitely no precedent for this type of a thing working out.

1. Draft 2. The pros/cons of our under the radar types (Engel, May, etc.)

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 04:54 PM) Not that this should be a determining factor, but I think it is interesting how big a crowd there is to fit onto Charlotte's roster in terms of pitchers. Assuming Paulino is in the rotation and Webb takes the open bullpen slot, with Veal taking the LOOGY spot, here are the pitchers you'd assume would be in AAA: Andre Rienzo* Eric Surkamp (L)* Charlie Leesman (L)* Spencer Arroyo (L) Stephen McCray Jake Petricka Deunte Heath Brian Omogrosso David Purcey (L) Taylor Thompson Evan Crawford (L) Nestor Molina Zach Stewart Matt Zaleski Scott Carroll Salvador Sanchez Ryan Kussmaul Parker Frazier Tony Pena Jr Dylan Axelrod Frank De Los Santos (L)* That's about 9 guys too many to fit. And if the Sox have to go with only 6 in the pen, it gets tighter. Again, don't misunderstand, I'm not saying this should effect who makes the team because it absolutely should not. But it is worth noting that you have about 10 starters and 11 relievers there. The ones with an asterisk are on the 40 at this time. There are even more guys who, under normal development, may also be at AAA (Vance, Mabee, Remenowsky). As they did last year, I predict they will use the DL for capacity, citing dubious "injuries". Wouldn't they just cut like half of those guys to free up a spot? Seems like dumping someone on the DL would be more harmful because of missed playing time.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 24, 2014 -> 03:54 PM) Why is signing over 30 year old pitchers a bad idea, yet so many expect an over 30 pitcher who has pitched a combined 37 innings the last 2 years to suddenly set a career high in IP? Are you serious? Because there's quite the difference between "managing to pitch three quarters of a season" and "sustaining a level of play to justify $12-15m and the loss of a draft pick for four years."

I don't think it makes sense to look at past stats for Kazmir at this point. He's pretty clearly a different pitcher now than he was when he used to be good and when he used to get ripped in the bush leagues. It stands to reason that his valuation is based on the market's impressions of his current stuff and its sustainability. Not saying it was a good deal or not. I don't know much about him, honestly, other than he got a lot of his velocity back.

If things go according to plan, I expect Paulino to start running out of gas at ~150 IP and for callups to start getting his starts in August/September. I also expect them to choose a longman (Leesman?) who can make spot starts for SPs that have non-DL injuries, and for Hahn to rely on jerking Axelrod up and down if someone hits the DL in the first half.

The problem with Bauer is that his disappointment so far is not at all indicative of characteristics of a typical number 3 pick. Tons of players went after him that are way better prospects right now. His situation is an outlier because of his makeup.

I wouldn't mind more draft coverage, considering we're choosing so high.

Gotta be Buerhle

CLAP! CLAP! CLAP CLAP CLAP! CLAPCLAPCLAPCLAP! TU-LO!

Who gives a s***? They're all gonna play plenty. Opening day is just the first day of the season.

QUOTE (flavum @ Feb 21, 2014 -> 06:26 PM) Rough day for Morel. http://instagram.com/p/krdYE8Rxbs/# :'(

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Feb 21, 2014 -> 04:34 PM) The point that BABIP is uncontrollable tells me how reliable the other stats, like OBP are, if it is artificially inflated, than I know it is likely to regress, also if it is abnormally low, I know that a player is likely to improve. Pitches per at bat tells me what kind of eye that my batters have, how well they can work a count, and helps me to get to a bullpen quicker, where I know it is more likely that my team can score more runs. K/BB indicates the quality of AB's when coupled with P/AB. I can tell if a guy is a flailer or has a legitimately good feel for the strike zone. These are also all environmental independent stats. wOBA and wRC+ are good in concept, though I don't understand how they appropriately weight a performance in the Cell against a performance in Petco to have enough faith in the number to be reliable. A HR in the cell is a fly ball at Petco, but the weighted numbers wont tell me that, it will tell me that the player that hit the ball at the Cell is superior to the one that hit the same ball in San Diego. I have not idea how they could account for that. I understand that they use multipliers and park factors and such, but when you are applying park factor to an out, I would assume that it is then displayed as an out everywhere. Sure your HR at Petco could count as 1.4 HR's in Chicago, but it doesn't work the other way. I think I understand what you're saying now. You want precision for the sake of determining "fit" in terms of a desired player profile. That makes sense. You threw me off that trail when you were talking about the interchangeability of Kershaw and Carlos Gomez but I get it now. Yeah, I'd look outside the WAR family of numbers for type as well. I usually like the Pitch F/X stats for that stuff you mentioned, though, O-swing%, Z-swing%, etc. Pitches per at bat is something that can be demanded by coaches or determined by situation -- I think see how they recognize and treat pitch is a better indicator of "true talent."

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 21, 2014 -> 03:44 PM) When top notch relievers get huge contracts, it moves up the scale for everyone. Yeah, I see what you're saying, it's just that Kimbrel has been literally historic. He's as much ahead of everyone else as Mariano Rivera was -- the type of guy that is the exception to the model.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 21, 2014 -> 03:47 PM) MLB Transactionist ‏@MLBTransactions 17m TORONTO BLUE JAYS: Claimed pitcher Liam Hendriks off waivers from the Baltimore Orioles; designated infielder Brent Morel for assignment. I just want to express how much difficulty I'm having NOT starting a thread titled: "Blue Jays DFA Brent Morel. Next Sox waiver claim?"

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Feb 21, 2014 -> 03:39 PM) Thats crazy, so because WAR is a bad indicator, every stat is bad incator, talk about throwing the baby out with the bath water. There are a ton of numbers to use to indicate and predict performance, WAR is not a strong indicator stat, more of a picture of what happened in a given set of circumstances. The Dodgers should trade Kershaw straight up for Carlos Gomez because they add the same value to the team? Both had an 8.4 WAR, so they should be equally valuable, but that is dumb. If I use WAR as an evaluation tool, I should make that deal, especially given the contracts involved, but common sense says hell no. No. Why would you not consider your team's construction when making such a decision? Why would you not consider team control and cost? QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Feb 21, 2014 -> 03:39 PM) If you were building the 2007 team and used WAR from 2006 to build the team, they would be expected to win 90 games, except they lost 90 games. WAR gives me no context as to why or where they regressed. Who expects it to? We re talking about evaluating a player to be added to your team. QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Feb 21, 2014 -> 03:39 PM) If I am evaluating hitters I am looking at P/AB, OBP, BABIP, K/BB as indicators as to how a player has performed and using some common sense to evaluate whether those numbers are sustainable or outliers. Those are factors that a batter can control. Defensive stats are pretty clunky to me, there are defensive stats that say players I can see with my eyes aren't good, are good and vice versa. WAR is OK to talk about when saying Willie Mays is better than Mike Trout as it gives you some semblance of a tool to evaluate players over their career, but as a tool to build a team, it is not useful. So you think pitches per at bat is more important than WAR or its components? OBP is captured in wOBA, but is then added proportionately to TB statistics to give you a more complete picture, and then league adjusted into wRC+, which is fed by wRAA. Dozens of studies have shown BABIP to be among the least controllable factors by both hitters and pitchers. Not entirely random, but a poor predictor of itself in all but the most extreme cases. K/BB is less important than OBP. Other than pitches per at bat, all the things you mentioned are captured in WAR components. You don't have use WAR itself unless you're comparing positions, but why on Earth would you not use wRC+, for example?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 21, 2014 -> 03:34 PM) If that is a real question... He made his money in real estate. No, I'm sorry, it should have been green

QUOTE (ScottyDo @ Feb 21, 2014 -> 03:30 PM) Are there any attempts to use velocity of the ball off the bat, or vector somehow? Ball-off-bat speeds are available data, right? I have to imagine they would correlate negatively with offensive production somehow. That's a good question. I've heard people refer to off-the-bat speed, so I assume it's being recorded. Whether or not it's freely available and, if it is, whether someone has done research with it I don't know.

QUOTE (Joxer_Daly @ Feb 21, 2014 -> 03:33 PM) For me it's the time difference that is the killer. I try to watch as many live games as I can, but with the time difference, work and family, etc, the amount of games I'm able to get doesn't really justify the cost. Can't you watch them later though?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Feb 21, 2014 -> 10:59 AM) I agreed a lot with that idea up until the Kimbrell extension. Now I wonder if closers are about to become a lot more valuable? I don't think you can use Kimbrel as a standard for guys like Addison Reed, though. Plus, I thought Dave made a good point that Reed's save totals actually make him less valuable in that he'll get better arbitration raises:

QUOTE (Reddy @ Feb 21, 2014 -> 12:34 PM) lol yall can keep deluding yourselves but there's no way in hell we don't trot out Paulie as our starting 1B (or DH at the minimum) one last time ESPECIALLY since Opening Day is at home. Anyone who thinks otherwise clearly doesn't know who Jerry Reinsdorf is. My other question to that crowd is - why does it matter? "I hope so".... why? Personally I want Paulie to have his Rivera and Jeter season. Of course he won't, but given that we're not competing anyway who cares if he starts the first game of the season? Who IS Jerry Reinsdorf? He's a car salesman, right?

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 21, 2014 -> 01:56 PM) He made it through 2012 and 2013 and now is on the same routine. I think it would be very far-fetched to say if he had been a starter in 2010-2011 he wouldn't have been injured if he goes down at this point. If you want to say his relieving contributed to his discomfort in 2012, that could make some sense, but most pitchers do go through a lot of pain and dead arm periods throughout every season, even if they have been starters their entire lives. Sale is always going to be an injury concern. It probably is the only reason he is even a White Sox. But you never know when. It could be 10 years from now, it could be tomorrow. Even guys with classic deliveries go down. Sure, but that doesn't mean there isn't a way to minimize the risk, which, logically, would be working up to a 200 inning load by gradually increasing through the minors.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Feb 21, 2014 -> 01:03 PM) I know that the pitcher can't control the fielders. However, FIP is being used frequently for pitchers performance. I think that a combination using a GB and line drive percentage maybe along with the others may be able to show more of the pitchers influence on the game rather than only BB, K, and HR which is the only pure control variables. For the runs scored, I know I'm in the minority but I'm less concerned about an individuals performance than how the individual impacts a win or loss. The performance aspect is for arbitration and salaries. A players impact on winning a given game is more what I would be interested in. The only way I can see to start breaking it down is how he impacts scoring runs at bat and prevents runs on defense. WAR doesn't really do it because that really looks at how his performance is better than another player of lesser performance. The runs prevented stat seems to make sense on defense and OPS and OPS+ kind of start it for offense but there are still too many variables not taken into account for it to do too much. That makes intuitive sense, but research has shown no significant year-to-year correlation between LD rates at all. GB rate is less reliable than you'd think, but is more consistent than LD -- the problem is that it cannot be considered an inherently good or bad thing because it doesn't fit into the equation of linear weights. In other words, it is a class of event, but it isn't a final outcome. Therefore, it cannot hold a run value. A GB can become one of several types of hits or outs, and the odds of each event occurring are entirely dependent on defense, chance, and the ability of the hitter -- all context-dependent and infinitely variable.