Eminor3rd

Check this out: http://mlbdraftinsider.com/2013/12/2014-draftbook-preview/ Draft prospect preview book for $1.99. I just ordered one, I'll let you know if it's good. But I imagine it won't be hard to be worth two bucks, haha.

QUOTE (Jake @ Jan 2, 2014 -> 11:29 AM) I'm thinking they would like this, at this point: Konerko [backup catcher TBD] 4th OF that isn't ADA or Viciedo 3B/2B/1B/emergency LF Gillaspie Jake Elmore or similar player (RH bat, all IF positions and in his case OF as well, eliminating need for Gillaspie to be emergency player ther) I forgot about Elmore. They really need to dump Keppinger somehow.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 2, 2014 -> 11:24 AM) 6 innings** Shows how much White Sox baseball I turned off last year. I stand corrected. Maybe they do consider him an emergency SS.

QUOTE (chisoxfan310 @ Jan 2, 2014 -> 10:57 AM) With Alexei's durability, I'm sure Beckham can step in to play short once or twice next year. He did play short a bit in his minor league rehab last year and I think at one point was the only backup ss on the mlb team. Everyone seems like like that theory, but the reality is that Beckham has played zero innings at SS in his ML career. There's no indication at all that the team believes he can play there.

QUOTE (Jake @ Jan 1, 2014 -> 11:16 PM) I'd be shocked if Gillaspie can't play 2B at least well enough to be a Keppinger-like "anything but SS" utility player with solid platoon splits for that purpose. But that's the problem -- we need a guy that can play SS. If Davidson makes the team out of ST, right now the bench looks like: 1B/DH Konerko C Flowers/Nieto OF De Aza/Viciedo IF Keppinger ?? That fifth slot, which they probably would rather not even carry in lieu of another reliever anyway, absolutely must be someone that can play SS, as that's the only position not covered. Battling for that final slot will be Garcia, Danks, Gillaspie, and Semien at a minimum. Semien can start in AAA, and Garcia is the only other one that can handle SS. That leaves both Gillaspie and Danks without a job, and I'd be surprised if we didn't lose one or both to waivers because neither has anything to prove in AAA.

I'm pleasantly surprised that Frank's chances are looking so good for this year. It seems all of the ballot-clogging and Jack Morris-ing and PED-use issues have sucked up all the vitriol that I expected would be used on the DH issue. It seems Frank is quietly floating in with almost no discussion.

SOMEONE has got to go soon. Otherwise, there may be some DFA's in ST. I can't see Gillaspie with a long-term role here as the roster currently sits. He'd have to go for not being versatile enough defensively.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Dec 30, 2013 -> 09:31 PM) Did you have any luck at the job fair? I did -- I got a couple offers, one which I'm considering, and I'm also still interviewing for another. Had my second interview this morning at 10, actually. Minor league stuff, promotions and marketing. Thanks for asking!

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Dec 31, 2013 -> 03:36 PM) so past the J4L porn talk and NPB sucks talk, how long will this process take? I think it's like 25 days

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 31, 2013 -> 10:06 AM) And I still don't care about any of that, but whatever. You win, I'll retract my statements about NPB players being incapable of making it out of AA and being far lesser than AAA guys. Of course I still stand by everything else I said, i.e. that the league sucks, the stress level on a pitcher is far lesser than anything they'd have to experience in MLB & as such the pitch count worries are probably overblown, and if quality AAA players/fringe MLB guys are the equivalent to most of your star NPB players then I don't see why they wouldn't beat the unholy dogs*** out of the NPB league if enough of them ever went over there at once. Caulfield says there are rules in effect preventing that, and good, there should be, because it would be embarrassing overwise. The goal over there is to win; the goal here in America is to create enough competition to develop the few legitimate prospects that exist around the league while creating an opportunity for fringe-roster players and rehabbing MLB vets to get playing time. Should the games matter as they do in Japan you wouldn't bench your best performers to let a top prospect struggle while you're contending, nor would you give out gift organizational promotions to under qualified prospects simply to maintain an organizational status quo. In Japan you throw a 1000 pitches to be a living god, in America you throw 50% breaking balls in important games/situations just because your pitching coaches want you to develop the pitch. But otherwise, I agree that your work here is impressive and you are definitely devoted to the numbers at a level where you should honestly pursue a career in baseball if you're not doing so already. And I don't like it when you disagree with me. Please refrain from doing that, just agree with me please. Deal. Thanks

QUOTE (flavum @ Dec 31, 2013 -> 09:57 AM) I'm surprised the Hall allows votes to be published before the announcement, and especially before the ballots have be turned in. Suppose a voter wants to wait until the last minute (today) and make their decision based on percentages already known. That doesn't seem right. Plus, why take the suspense out of it for announcement day? We're going to know before they open the envelope unless the percentage is right around 75%. But I do like that Frank is probably getting in this year. The discussion and controversy is excellent for business. The more the HOF can be in the news, the better things are for the HOF. That's why they'll never change to "more objevtive standards" -- they don't really care who gets in, just that there remains interest in the whole process.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Dec 30, 2013 -> 10:45 PM) You know, I don't post on PHT anywhere near as much as I used to. I'm strictly NBA thread and that's it these days. But I do lurk. And I will say this much, I want to have emotional, internet sex with Eminor3rd. This dude believes in the numbers and he backs it up. He reminds me of Kalapse/Qwerty in their primes (or even me before I became a peter griffin-like drunk). #Eminor3rd

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 30, 2013 -> 05:53 PM) See, they have their opinions, that's fine, but what you just posted is equally as baseless. I could just as easily turn around and exclaim shock at the notion of your general/average NPB players being at the same level as your American & Latin players in the high minors in the MLB system, much less actually superior. In fact, I am going to. What evidence do you have that the Japanese players in NPB came up facing an equal or greater level of comp as those in our AAA system currently? Players here have had to mostly work straight from Rookie or Low-A ball up through multiple levels before eventually topping at as ST invitees or 23-25th type roster players. Think seriously for a second about all the players in MiLB baseball, from the all the Summer League teams and organizational camps to 2 levels of Rookie ball to 3 levels of A ball to AA to AAA, and consider just how many of these players there are. Then consider the pool they come from. These players have come from all over the world, some are very serious athletes as well, and some of these guys have been given substantial signing bonuses which I am sure would rank well in comparison to some of the salaries in Japan alone. Consider how many if not most of the players here have been scouted by multiple organizations intensely, each organization of course being worth on average what, a few hundred million dollars? This is big business over here. There's a lot a players picked from a lot of places, there's a lot of money in the scouting, the signing, the development, the the training, etc. of these guys. And for someone to just run out there and say that the NPB guys are the same level or better than the AAA/fringe MLB players he had better have some real proof. To me, making a statement like that shows a total lack of appreciation for what players who have made it that far in MLB's system have actually accomplished. For anyone to make such a statement and be accurate they'd need some real data that *does not* involve NPB stats which of course prove little to nothing. I want to know what the average FB velocity is over there, I want to know what the average breaking balls look like, the bat speed, the time out of the box to first, the type of thing a scout would look for. Otherwise the claim that NPB is as good or better is just as baseless. Some "expert" number crunchers know what, exactly? Amateur free agents don't get signed by numbers, they get signed by ability, and you look to the numbers for support. If you want to come up with a way that actually measures the talent level somewhat objectively then sure you can go ahead & say they're as good as our AAA guys if that ends up being the case. But I would bet on the contrary, that if you wanted to create a league in NPB that would be comparable to the AAA level you'd probably have to contract several teams over there and squeeze the rosters quite a bit. And lastly I don't buy for a second that more players don't come over here just because they want to stay in Japan. I'd say it's because MLB teams won't pay them enough and guarantee them enough to make it worth their while to leave their family behind and/or take their kids out of school and move halfway across the globe. But there's a price for everything. Darvish was talked about for a good year or two before he was posted, and supposedly he didn't want to come over here. That kind of money changes things, and there would be more of it handed out if MLB teams figured it was worth it. Alright. I just asked Dan Szymborski about this, who is the inventor of the ZiPS projection system and works for ESPN (I play TF2 with him on Steam). I'm going to post the conversation verbatim: Eminor3rd: Have you done your own equivalencies for NPB stats? [AiF] Zim: Yup [AiF] Zim: Couldn't project if I didn't! Eminor3rd: And how do they compare to MiLB? I've heard roughly AAA, is that true? Eminor3rd: or do you just have linear weights for every type of event [AiF] Zim: Like AAA+.5 [AiF] Zim: BA type stuff almost no hit, HRs bigger hit than moving from AAA There you have it. Not opinion, but statistical research on equivalencies that show NPB numbers to be roughly AAA level and then some. And this is coming from one of the biggest names in this tiny field, so much so that ESPN uses his numbers.

QUOTE (MAX @ Dec 30, 2013 -> 05:33 PM) Its not like dayan's defense is so poor that it would exclude him from being a part of that super sub rest type DH. Idk man.

Personally, and I know this probably isn't a popular opinion, I'd rather flip Viciedo for a similarly wild-cardy post-hype catching prospect and extend De Aza for something like 3/$15m to be our LF until a prospect pushes him out. I think having a perfectly average-ish LH veteran bat will add some stability to a lineup that may be in flux for the next couple years. Slot him in 7th and let Eaton and Avisail turn into guys toward the top of the order. I think ADA's bat will be perfectly serviceable in that role for the next few years, and I think he'll play an average to above-average LF. Even if you're higher on Viciedo than I am, no player is ever likely to reach his ceiling -- he'll probably end up a fairly one dimensional hitter that plays bad defense for a couple years and then turns into an average-ish DH. I'm not sure that is going to be extremely valuable for us in the future now that we're committed to Abreu and now that the entire league is increasingly enamored with using the DH as a super-sub rest position.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 30, 2013 -> 03:40 PM) I think Jordan Danks has a chance to play himself into more playing time if he's good enough, so Jordan has a shot at raising his value while also being a cheap, serviceable 4th OF. OTOH DeAza is a pretty hard player to predict & he's just getting more expensive in arb. Even with a nice year, you're still looking at a LF who is getting closer to FA, so the opportunity for DeAza to increase his value that significantly I think is pretty small. On the whole though, DeAza is the type of player who fits in with the idea of rebuilding but not at the cost of totally unwatchable baseball. He shouldn't be dumped, and even though he's just a LF he could be a fit for any number of teams in either league around the deadline. If Hahn is getting low-balled then you keep DeAza and you take his AB from Dunn and/or Keppinger, not any of the young guys who could be a part of the new core. This is all pretty spot on, IMO. De Aza isn't likely going to increase his value with his play, but his value may be increased by the situation changing -- like if a team really needs a cheap, solid OF at the deadline.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 30, 2013 -> 03:54 PM) It seems like it is very difficult to find historical stats on Japanese baseball period, other than the fact that hitters like Casey McGehee can look like Miguel Cabrera over there. Our own Shingo didn't exactly look like Mariano or Trevor Hoffman or Lee Smith or Dennis Eckersly did he? Your argument is what? That the league is AAA or something? Where's your stats statman. Go find some reference and I'll look at it. Your comparison to the WBC is completely irrelevant to the overall quality of the league. People don't need stats to disprove baseless claims, people need stats to support their otherwise baseless claims. The "experts" in the media commonly refer to the NPB as being roughly equivalent if slightly superior to AAA baseball. From my personal consumption (admittedly mostly from memory of podcasts), sabermetricians and talking heads agree on this point. If you want to claim a different opinion than status quo, you should be the one providing evidence.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Dec 30, 2013 -> 03:16 PM) In what world is De Aza not perfect, but Jordan Danks "pretty darn ideal"? I seem to recall Jordan having his own baserunning problems in the past, and he is not nearly the offensive player De Aza is. He is much better with the glove, I will give you that, but Danks is no kid. He is older than Beckham. I think he's implying that De Aza wouldn't preform as well in a part-time role, not that Jordan Danks is a better player overall.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 30, 2013 -> 02:42 PM) They also look at Quintana http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/what-does-jose-quintana-do/ I was talking up Quintana to Eno so hard at the Winter Meetings a few weeks ago (I was there for the job fair) but he didn't want to buy in -- I think I may have gotten his gears going, haha. It was the night before Santiago got traded.

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 30, 2013 -> 11:32 AM) Yeah that's what I'm saying. The league is terrible. Our failed prospects here are better IMO. Lol, based on what?

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Dec 30, 2013 -> 11:08 AM) The main reason I'd trade De Aza is that he could bring something in value back. This is the only reason to trade De Aza. There was no reason at all to trade him before we got Eaton, IMO.

I think one of the things we're overlooking about the Sox rotation is that a lot of what makes it "valuable" and "enviable" is that it is young and cost-controlled, not necessarily that it's full of elite arms. So whether or not you consider it to be among the best in the league depends on which question you're asking. As far as raw 2014 performance goes, it isn't elite.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Dec 30, 2013 -> 09:52 AM) Then, theoretically, they should have put up a better ERA on the road. Home - 3.77 ERA Road - 4.23 ERA Now that homers have died down, I don't think it's a particularly great hitter's park. It certainly could be, but it's park factors were 100 and 101 last year. 2013 Park Factors: http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pf...13&teamid=0 You should also factor in home-field advantage. I saw an interesting study that show a statistically significant effect for hitters having home field advantage, not sure if the same exists for pitchers.

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Dec 29, 2013 -> 10:22 PM) It's just a little weird when people set out to dissect the Sox admittedly terrible offense last year and select Adam Dunn to criticize first. While Dunn is obviously a less than perfect hitter, he was the Sox most productive hitter last year. Have you already made posts every one of the rest of the hitters (aside from Rios)? And it's difficult to understand what is meant by "tough out" or how you're defining that. Is Alexei more of a tough out than Adam Dunn? Alexei makes outs more frequently than Dunn. Their entire careers as well as last year. That isn't some complicated advanced statistic that says that, it's on-base percentage. Is it ok if you make outs more often so long as they are "tough"? Wouldn't "ultimately makes outs less frequently" imply a "tough out"? Excellent post. I don't give a s*** how they get out, I just need them to NOT get out at least 33% of the time. You want to talk about a guy who gets himself out, try the freeswinger who has a career OBP of .315. Maybe if he wasn't so stubborn, he wouldn't keep swinging at s***ty pitches. That goes for almost everyone on our roster, unfortunately. Adam Dunn hasn't been great with us, but it isn't because he strikes out, it's because he has failed to get on base enough to make up for it -- which he previously did just fine. There's nothing wrong with the IDEA of Adam Dunn, there's been plenty wrong with the EXECUTION of Adam Dunn.