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QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Nov 21, 2013 -> 02:30 PM) Freese 30 years old 9 HR 60 RBI .262 AVG .340 OBP 462 ABs Right Handed Gillaspie- 26 years old 13 HR 40 RBI .245 AVG .305 OBP 452 PA Left Handed And it was Gillaspie's first full year and with a horrible cast around him that never got on base. Freese was on a team that made the World Series and had a bunch of guys in front of him that got on base. I will take Gillaspie every day Career WAR Gillaspie: 0.4 Freese: 8.2 WAR per 500PA Gillaspie: 0.4 Freese: 2.3 2014 Steamer projected WAR Gillaspie: 1.3 Freese: 2.3 Career UZR/150 Gillaspie: -5.2 Freese: -4.8 Career wRC+ Gillaspie: 83 Freese: 119 2014 Steamer projected wRC+ Gillaspie: 95 Freese: 118 Hmmm. Wait, I found something! 2013 Ultimate baserunning Gillaspie: -0.1 Freese: -1.9 Help me, I'm struggling here. Is the argument that Gillaspie is better something like "Freese's injury-plagued down year in 2013 makes me think that his entire career precedent is lost now that he is age 30"? Because where I'm coming from, it looks like they are similar defenders, similar baserunners, but Freese is a SUBSTANTIALLY better hitter -- like several standard deviations better.

QUOTE (BigHurt3515 @ Nov 21, 2013 -> 01:39 PM) No no no no no no no. Just no. Conor is better thrn Freese. Just no. Being from St. Louis I can't stand Freese. So overrated because of a few games in the playoffs a couple years ago. I don't wamt him anywhere near this team. Freese is indeed overrated, and I don't want him either. However, he is absolutely better than Connor Gillaspie lol

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Nov 21, 2013 -> 09:52 AM) Kemp to the Brew Crew Braun to the White Sox Danks & Lindstrom to the Dodgers Get it done Rick!!! lol

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 21, 2013 -> 12:10 AM) Bill James has been calling lineup protection a myth for years. Baseball PLAYERS, however, insist it's true and important. It seems like it should be, but when you look at how guys perform in both situations, there's little to no difference. It's just how it is, people have been TRYING to find an effect for a very long time.

QUOTE (jphat007 @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 09:54 PM) Infante had a really good year offensively, and is generally pretty solid. Was he so bad on defense that they wanted to get kinsler and not pay him as a FA? No, but they dumped $76m of a rapidly declining DH (the third one on their 25 man roster) in a time where they sorely need money to retain Scherzer, while also opening up a spot for their best prospect, who just happens to be Major League ready. This is an absolute boon for the Tigers and I hate it

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 09:23 PM) In order for Abreu to have a huge impact I would feel much more comfortable with another bat behind him. If he shows he can hit he's going to be intentionally walked an awful lot without any protection. Fortunately for Abreu, every attempt ever to find an observable affect of lineup protection on player performance has failed, leaving as currently one of the most widely cited myths in baseball analysis. That doesn't mean it wouldn't be nice to have another good hitter behind him, though

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 06:22 PM) No offense, this is a lot easier said than done. How would you go about acquiring these players? None taken -- it isn't easy. In a word: patience. Divert budget to drafting and developing them -- and then extending them when applicable. Trade players with only short term value for them. Sign international free agents that fit the bill. The key is that you have to let the opportunities come to you, you can't just throw money at the issue to make it work in the present.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 03:37 PM) If you are just hoping you get $100 million worth of production out of the $100 million he is owed, i don't think it is worth it with all the baggage. I agree with this 100%

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 03:12 PM) Melky was a 4.4 WAR in 113 games on the juice. Comes out to about 6.5 for a full year. He serves his suspension and was a -0.9 last year. Canseco is crazy, but he knows a lot about steroids.but if Jose Canseco doesn't think Jose Canseco would have been a major leaguer withoutp the juice, it should at least make you puse. Sammy Sosa before juice was nowhere near the offensive force he was when he was on them. McGwire had some rough years before he found the magic juice.Again, one of Braun's old friends said he was juicing at Miami, considering you said when suggested the Sox add $10 million payroll, that the suggestion was a reason why the suggester wouldn't have a billion dollar company, how does it make any sense to add a $100 million obligation before you really have a chance to see what you would get? Braun just full seasons of nearly 8 WAR. That's an Alejandro De Aza better than Melky's extrapolated performance The problem with those examples is that it's impossible to know how much better those players would have gotten WITHOUT the juice. We just can't isolate the variables. Again, I'd bet in some cases it was a lot and in others it wasn't. It's fair to be wary not knowing how much they affected him, I get that and that's a big question. There's a ton of upside though, and I think there are a lot of reasons to believe that there may be similar or less risk than even what goes into the Abreu contract.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 01:47 PM) Then again, if you actually paid attention to how the Sox dealt with him last year (actually the last 2 years) until they finally were forced to give him a starting spot, you can make an equally strong case that he'll get significantly better. You can make the case, but I don't know if it's "equally strong." Tired or not, he has bad control and his secondary offerings are below average pitches. I personally think he should dump the screwball altogether -- it's got such a soft, predictable break and he doesn't seem to be able to keep it down in the zone with any level of consistency.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 03:02 PM) The end result is likely somewhere between those two numbers. His FIP and xFIP were ridiculously good, but it was a small time frame. Meanwhile, the ERA was absolutely atrocious. Over a full season - if he could remain healthy for a full season - I figure he'd be about a 4.25-4.75 ERA pitcher. As I said, I think it's best if the Sox just stay away from him. He's a weiner anyway

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 02:57 PM) Has anyone stopped to say "Hey, wow, for this to happen the brewers would have to be totally sick of the guy. My word I didn't think that was possible, could he really be that bad?" It's a valid point. I think that it may have to with how horribly bad and horribly small market the Brewers are, though. But you could be right.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 02:46 PM) Melky Cabrera could be a good example. Jose Canseco actually said he wouldn't have been a major leaguer without steroids. I don't think that is something you risk $100 million trying to find out. Ryan Braun is SO much better than Melky Cabrera EVER was. And please don't ever base an argument on Jose Canseco's insanity laced opinions. I think the "answer" to PEDs is that they probably affect different guys very differently. I understand your thought that Braun is too big a risk given his contract and think it is reasonable. I fall on the other side because guys that have peaks as high as Braun's tend to age much better and (my opinion) have got to have a high level of natural talent in order to turn out those numbers, roids or not.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 02:37 PM) I don't know how anyone could say he will remain a star level producer. For one thing, he is going to have to carry this weight around for the rest of his career, and another, he supposedly has been using PEDs since college, so chances are we have never seen what he can do clean. You may be right, but I think the bolded is way too strong of a statement. The fact is, we don't have much evidence at all of how much PEDs affect performance. And the fact remains that has produced at a HOF rate for the past 3-4 seasons. I certainly think it's reasonable to expect that he might drop off sharply, but I don't think that's any more likely than him having a fairly natural career path from here on out.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 02:27 PM) It's quite obvious you haven't look at ANY of Oswalt's recent numbers outside of LOLwins and ERA. This isn't 1960, we have advanced statistics and a better idea of how to evaluate a player. Feel free to modernize your thinking. It's strange because his advanced numbers make him look solid but his old-school numbers make him look like Randy Williams.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 02:21 PM) What is his contract going to look like when he is 35-38? He is signed for 8 more years. 7 if you buy him out. He will make $10 million next year, and if see the responses when Marty mentioned maybe adding that exact figure to the payroll he was told numerous times that is not how you run a business. He wouldn't get nearly what he is guaranteed if he were a free agent right now. This is NOT like what Marty and I were talking about, because this is not a player who will only contribute for 1-2 years and it would be adding a SUBSTANTIAL upgrade rather than a marginal one, so much so that the team's competitive window could actually get a lot closer. While Braun is expensive, he is NOT a market-rate asset -- his level of production offers substantial surplus value. I would support this move because I believe that Braun would remain a star-level producer for at least 4 seasons, and that his decline seasons may see him overpaid but still useful. If you believe otherwise, then I understand why you wouldn't want to add the contract.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 02:11 PM) But what about his post drug production? None of his supporters are looking at the inevitable decline after a player stops using drugs. Actually, SS2K5 and I have exchanged several posts about just that, I assume it'll drop off -- but it would have to fall a LONG way to make the contract bad. The free agent market pays $5-6m per WAR on average. Braun will make between $16-19m per year for the rest of the contract, so he's being paid like a 3-4 WAR player from here on out. His last two full seasons came in at between 7-8 WAR. So even if he got 25-30% worse and lost like 2 WAR, he'd still be worth something like $10m more than his contract each year in comparison to what else we could get with that money. So, from a purely baseball perspective, you can assume he drops of a ton and it would stil be a boon. The point you made remains, however, that he's a total slime bag. So which outcome you root for depends on what you value more.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 01:59 PM) Going all in with a low pair (if we are assuming preflop here) is a much better gamble than long term free agent deals. I was assuming post-flop where you caught your pair in the flop. SHould have explained that more. Regardless, the point remains

QUOTE (flavum @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 02:07 PM) https://twitter.com/CST_soxvan/status/403252792615112704 Anybody know anything about Elmore? I BELIEVE the book on him is decent bat, no glove.

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 02:01 PM) That'd be amazing to grab him if Milwaukee picked up a good chunk of his contract, but yeah, not happening. I imagine that the only way Milwaukee would actually move him would be to NOT have to pick up much or any of his contract. But that's the thing, it's a BIG contract but it isn't necessarily a BAD contract. His production has been so high that he has been more than worth the money. Whether the contract is good or bad depends on how you think he'll age. But right now, pending an implosion, it's not an unreasonable price.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 01:54 PM) Wait, the possibility of a team taking on a bad contract giving up next to nothing in return never happens. No, the possibility of a team giving you prospects to entice you to accept a bad contract for next to nothing in return never happens. And never will. EDIT: Because it's nonsensical for everyone involved.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 01:53 PM) Assuming of course that he wasn't cheating at that time as well. I assume that he WAS. I'm just saying that he could drop 2 WAR and still be a good deal.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 01:49 PM) I'd love to hear your plan. Add players with surplus value that can be retained for several years. Only add market rate talent when it pushes you over the edge. The current state of free agency is that years are in demand more than dollars in some cases -- making market-rate acquisitions ALWAYS buys present value at the cost of future value, whether that's in terms of dollars or other players. Asking them to exhaust future resources on a team most likely destined for mediocrity is a recipe for short and long term disaster. It's like going all in on a low pair, hoping the river gives you three of a kind. It's a bad gamble.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 01:48 PM) Just so it's said, I'd hate cheering for him to the point that I'd consume significantly less baseball. That'd be real good motivation to cancel my extra innings package. I don't like him either, but man talk about a move that could speed up a rebuild...

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 20, 2013 -> 12:33 PM) The question is, are you willing to bet $110+ million on where that production will be with no steroids? I say yes, because the pre-suspension version of Braun VASTLY overproduced that pay rate. He's been a 7-8 WAR player being paid like a 4 WAR player.