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QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 4, 2013 -> 03:20 PM) So you're saying C - Saltalamacchia 1B - Abreu 2B - Beckham/Semien SS - Ramirez 3B - Lawrie LF - Viciedo CF - De Aza RF - Garcia DH - Dunn is a legit offense? It's an improvement, but I still have my doubts as to whether that offense would score 650 runs. BUT it would be a substantial improvement on last year and it's something that you can add to over the next couple years. That would be a better team that was made WITHOUT sacrificing the future.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Nov 4, 2013 -> 01:58 PM) You really take the stats thing personally, eh? Yeah, sorry, lol. I guess I kinda do. I mean, it really isn't about the stats, it's about the mindset. My brain can turn it into a massive philosophical and socio-political argument in like 15 seconds if I'm not careful. Sometimes i just gotta CHECK MAHSELF before I WRECK MAHSELF

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 4, 2013 -> 01:50 PM) I think he could still get more than that on the open market (or perhaps get the Yankees to sign him to a 3 year deal before the accept/decline deadline). I'd probably be willing to part with a 2nd round pick for him at 2/$20. That feels like throwing money into a fire to me. Granderson is a short term upgrade, sure, but not a massive one. I just think whatever we spend money/draft picks on needs to have upside that could be useful 3 years from now. We're at the point where we need to prioritize surplus value over anything. Market rate value does us no good and it's easier to come by later.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Nov 4, 2013 -> 01:49 PM) He should accept the offer. I agree that the new system hurts the player, not only does a team lose a draft choice, but they have to pay enough to compete with the qualifying offer. They should have looked at a tiered system where a player like Grandy would cost a team their second or third round pick instead of their first or second pick. It's supposed to hurt the player -- it's designed to give the team enough leverage to retain its best players. The tiered system was abused for profit by teams like the Blue Jays and Rays, and Elias' ranking system was hopelessly obsolete.

QUOTE (Jake @ Nov 4, 2013 -> 01:37 PM) Let's get rid of that POS shortstop! Any metric that gives value for defensive contributions is WRONG

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 4, 2013 -> 11:52 AM) Yeah, I'm not big on McCann. I certainly think he could be a very good and valuable piece to have, but, to me, it's just as likely that he turns into a big pile of bust. If the Red Sox want to sign him, they can go right ahead. I think he's sneaky valuable, but it's becoming clear that he's going to be in way more demand than I'd hoped a few months ago. Like the skillset, not going to like the contract at all.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 4, 2013 -> 09:59 AM) When is the pitching fwar title parade? Another really awesome contribution to a discussion, brought to you by Dick Allen™

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 4, 2013 -> 10:07 AM) Next week I believe They postponed it until the week of Thanksgiving. Some stupid alderman s***.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 4, 2013 -> 11:47 AM) After reading about Grandy and DeAza on here, maybe the solution is to send DeAza to ADD classes. It seems like he loses focus. He does have a lot of 2-for-5 type games. If somebody could get him to pull his head out, maybe he'd draw more walks and not be a huge liability on the basepaths and somewhat inconsistent center fielder as well. No doubt he sometimes has some pop in his bat. He's just a looney in so many areas. Maybe he needs Jerry to have a talk with him in spring training about how he's expected to do better. I think we just need to accept that some guys are league-average players and that they have some value as league average players. De Aza is upgradebale, but no matter how angry he made us getting picked off, he was NOT the guy that sunk this team. We gotta replace our black holes before we replace our boring-but-relatively-effective guys.

McCann gets a QO, Salty doesn't over on MLBTR. I officially just want Salty now. I don't want to give McCann $100m and give up a pick on top.

Granderson is from here guys. I don't think him being in town means anything.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Nov 2, 2013 -> 01:48 PM) Ok, I see your point, but we wouldn't know what GMs are paying per win if Fangraphs didn't have the formula in place to begin with. So I don't really know which would is more true than the other since they go hand in hand. I'm just trying to clarify what you were saying about that so that people don't start crying about how sabermetrics is dumb because it turns wins into money, that's all.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Nov 2, 2013 -> 01:38 PM) I never said that. So what is your response to that statement. Do you admit that you're wrong that speedy centerfielders never provide value into their mid thirties?

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Nov 2, 2013 -> 01:35 PM) And just because it was brought up about 30+ yr old OFers being worth $20M or not...... # of OF by season who put up a 4+ WAR after age 30.... 2013 - 7 OF (3 of them had 20+ SB) 2012 - 6 OF (2 of them had 20+ SB) 2011 - 7 OF (1 of them had 20+ SB) 2010 - 6 OF (2 of them had 20+ SB) 2009 - 5 OF (2 of them had 20+ SB) 2008 - 7 OF (3 of them had 20+ SB) I chose a WAR of 4 because Fangraphs values a win close to $5M, so 4+ would get you around that $20M a year figure. Just a minor qualm I have with the bolded statement. It's not really accurate to say "Fangraphs values a win at $5m," because that implies that there is a sabermetric formula for measure a win in dollars. This isn't true. Fangraphs has simply measured what teams pay on the open market per WAR. In free agency, teams pay $5m per WAR for players, on average. So that's what is meant when people use that figure to talk about if a player has been "worth" his contract.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Nov 2, 2013 -> 01:33 PM) When did I ever say anything about Coco Crisp's defense? Someone made an argument that Coco Crisp has provided substantial value into his mid thirties, and you dismissed it because of defensive metrics, which is dodging the question. Are you saying Coco Crisp HASN'T provided substantial value into his mid-thirties? How would you know?

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Nov 2, 2013 -> 01:24 PM) My eyes tell me if a player is a bad/good/great defender. I want to see his positioning, his instincts, his first step, his arm strength, the way he moves, how he reads the ball, the decisions he makes, his rhythm. Defense is an art, not math. If this is true, how could you possibly have a valid opinion about how to value Coco Crisp's defense?

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Nov 2, 2013 -> 01:15 PM) Of course I value defense. I will never value defensive stats. Defense is evaluated with eyes, not numbers. Don't even bother trying to change my mind, it will be pointless. What is your argument for this?

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Nov 2, 2013 -> 01:04 PM) You want to pay Juan Pierre and Coco Crisp $20M a year? You don't pay guys that rely on speed that much unless their name is Ricky Henderson. Honestly, any stats that use defensive metrics to place value on a player don't mean a whole lot to me. To be clear, I am totally with you that we should not be signing guys like Ellsbury right now. BUT The bolded statement seems very short-sighted without an accompanying explanation. Do you not value defense, or do you not trust the numbers? If it's the latter, what is it about the numbers you don't trust?

I can't see any way anyone ever considers Santiago a #2 starter. That doesn't mean I think he has no value, but let's be realistic, he's a 3/4. It's fine to say you still think he has upside, but it isn't like his stuff is overwhelming and he just needs to learn to harness it.

Just bought a shirt

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 04:37 PM) Wasn't it a labrum? Either way, he's a guy I'm staying away from. Eesh, that's much worse. Yeah I just meant that the Cards may be hesitant to deal their young depth if they aren't sure about Garcia's health.

Roughly, for reference: fWAR = Sacrifice completeness for the sake of accuracy bWAR = Sacrifice accuracy for the sake of completeness

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 03:06 PM) I think they'll look to move Lynn before they look to move Martinez. Also, Garcia coming off TJ isn't a sure thing.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 03:50 PM) Isn't that amazing that once Chris Sale reaches Javy Vazquez's # of IP, he will likely have the same WAR that Javy did for us. Javy was kind of a victim of being born 5-6 years too early. If he was putting up that string of 4.9, 5.0, 4.9 WAR seasons with the Sox NOW instead of from 06-08, he would have been making a lot more money than he did. He was considerably valuable, despite his 6th inning meltdowns. Interesting indeed.

Yep, our guys have ALWAYS given us a ton of solid innings, which is a big factor in fWAR.