Eminor3rd

Extremely relevant, extremely data-heavy article on TTOP (times through the order penalty): http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article....articleid=22156 Summary section for those without BP subscription or those not interested in reading like 5000 words: Samples used in the article were all PAs ever and all PAs from 2000-2012.

QUOTE (Jillian Michaels' Abs @ Nov 5, 2013 -> 11:21 AM) Apparently? *Evidently!

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 5, 2013 -> 11:50 AM) In each of his 3 Chris Sale-like fWAR seasons with the White Sox, Javy's ERA was higher on the road than at home. Taking a look, his HR/FB% was basically at its lowest with the White Sox, too. So strange diagnosing him. The only thing that really jumps out at a glance is pretty low strand rates.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 5, 2013 -> 11:27 AM) According to my BP, USCF, while a homer haven, is slightly better than neutral for hitting overall. Last year, the 3 year factor was exactly neutral. So if the White Sox stay away from flyball pitchers, they usually fare pretty well at home. Which was the difficulty with ol' Javy Vazquez, correct?

QUOTE (raBBit @ Nov 5, 2013 -> 10:44 AM) Right now, out of all of the FA, AJ Pierzynski is the best option we have. Out of all FA, AJ might be the WORST option. I can think of NO reason we wouldn't get someone who at least has a CHANCE of becoming a long-term option, even if it's a reclamation project.

QUOTE (Jake @ Nov 5, 2013 -> 09:43 AM) I think this coming year is a transitional year or whatever you may want to call it, but I also think that Hahn isn't willing to go into the year with a position like catcher unaddressed. If, as we think, they don't see much room for improvement from what was literally league worst from those two...I think he'll pursue short term options. That is, he'll pursue short-term options if he doesn't like any of the long-term ones. No reason to be horrible for s***s and giggles. You're not going to give a guy like AJ an amount of money that will make you think twice and at his age, you'll want to give him more rest anyway. I don't necessarily believe that having him or someone similar around precludes seeking a young, long-term replacement They'll get a catcher somewhere. The only question is if it's going to be someone like Salty or someone like Brayan Pena, Kurt Suzuki, or Geovany Soto. I'm guessing McCann is almost a 0% chance at this point.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Nov 4, 2013 -> 05:09 PM) It's a real shame The Grandy Man was offered a QO today because he sure does seem like a super likable guy.... http://www.csnchicago.com/blackhawks/curti...s-ice-potential From what I understand, he's one of the nicest guys in the sport. Big believer in charity, etc. One of my best friend's used to work at Niketown and helped Curtis with a bunch of Christmas shopping one year. He said he was just the coolest, most humble guy. Made him feel like a peer. Brian Urlacher was a total asshole, apparently, lol.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 4, 2013 -> 04:23 PM) But by how much? Gillaspie was a rookie and we're literally already paying for a guy who should be an ideal platoon partner for him. Gillaspie has some room for improvement as well, particulalry if he's used right. I'm seriously not interested in "slight upgrades" here - what we have ought to pencil in to a low .700's OPS at 3rd right now. Lawrie switching ballparks would project to a low .700's OPS if he repeated his last season. You're paying for an improvement in the potential ceiling but Lawrie, if he does what he did last year...basically adds 10-20 points of OPS to what that platoon should in theory do. That's simply not good enough. And with the rest of your guys...you're still counting on "imporvement from guys we already have". If we don't get that, then we have a crappy offense even with these guys. Yeah, if the Sox FO think Lawrie is close to his ceiling, it makes no sense to get him.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 4, 2013 -> 03:57 PM) Here's my biggest problem with this thinking. Gillaspie was only a small amount worse than Lawrie at 3b as a rookie. Can't I also write "Phegley/Flowers, Abreu, Semien/Beckham, Viciedo, and Gillaspie/Keppinger could all be better than last year's production at their respective positions" and still have Santiago in my pocket and an extra $10 million saved on Salty? For that to be a solid offense...you are requiring significant growth on the part of several people. But...if that growth happens amongst the guys we already have, then we get a solid offense without those additions. The only things that really obviously change is that yes, Lawrie has a much higher ceiling than a G/K platoon and yes, Salty has 1 season where he has a stronger record of production than the younger guys we have. Again, for that to be a solid offense...we need the guys we already have to step up, and trading Santiago and signing Salty does nothing to change that. If the guys we already have struggle...we make those trades, have 1 fewer pitcher, $10 million fewer dollars to spend, and we still have a terrible offense. For Lawrie versus the field, comes down to upside to me. You can hope that our revolving door of platooners regress and get acceptable, and you might be right, but if you get Lawrie, it's so you can roll the dice on him being a star, assuming that his downside is similar to what you can get for the other guys. As for C, I don't think there's hope for a full-time C out of what we have now. Salty is probably at his peak, but he's a legitimate solution that is young enough to make an impact for years to come. Throwing in Phegley as a B piece in a trade over the offseason and running in with a Saltalamacchia/Flowers platoon makes a ton of sense to me.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 4, 2013 -> 03:20 PM) So you're saying C - Saltalamacchia 1B - Abreu 2B - Beckham/Semien SS - Ramirez 3B - Lawrie LF - Viciedo CF - De Aza RF - Garcia DH - Dunn is a legit offense? It's an improvement, but I still have my doubts as to whether that offense would score 650 runs. BUT it would be a substantial improvement on last year and it's something that you can add to over the next couple years. That would be a better team that was made WITHOUT sacrificing the future.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Nov 4, 2013 -> 01:58 PM) You really take the stats thing personally, eh? Yeah, sorry, lol. I guess I kinda do. I mean, it really isn't about the stats, it's about the mindset. My brain can turn it into a massive philosophical and socio-political argument in like 15 seconds if I'm not careful. Sometimes i just gotta CHECK MAHSELF before I WRECK MAHSELF

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 4, 2013 -> 01:50 PM) I think he could still get more than that on the open market (or perhaps get the Yankees to sign him to a 3 year deal before the accept/decline deadline). I'd probably be willing to part with a 2nd round pick for him at 2/$20. That feels like throwing money into a fire to me. Granderson is a short term upgrade, sure, but not a massive one. I just think whatever we spend money/draft picks on needs to have upside that could be useful 3 years from now. We're at the point where we need to prioritize surplus value over anything. Market rate value does us no good and it's easier to come by later.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Nov 4, 2013 -> 01:49 PM) He should accept the offer. I agree that the new system hurts the player, not only does a team lose a draft choice, but they have to pay enough to compete with the qualifying offer. They should have looked at a tiered system where a player like Grandy would cost a team their second or third round pick instead of their first or second pick. It's supposed to hurt the player -- it's designed to give the team enough leverage to retain its best players. The tiered system was abused for profit by teams like the Blue Jays and Rays, and Elias' ranking system was hopelessly obsolete.

QUOTE (Jake @ Nov 4, 2013 -> 01:37 PM) Let's get rid of that POS shortstop! Any metric that gives value for defensive contributions is WRONG

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 4, 2013 -> 11:52 AM) Yeah, I'm not big on McCann. I certainly think he could be a very good and valuable piece to have, but, to me, it's just as likely that he turns into a big pile of bust. If the Red Sox want to sign him, they can go right ahead. I think he's sneaky valuable, but it's becoming clear that he's going to be in way more demand than I'd hoped a few months ago. Like the skillset, not going to like the contract at all.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 4, 2013 -> 09:59 AM) When is the pitching fwar title parade? Another really awesome contribution to a discussion, brought to you by Dick Allen™

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 4, 2013 -> 10:07 AM) Next week I believe They postponed it until the week of Thanksgiving. Some stupid alderman s***.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 4, 2013 -> 11:47 AM) After reading about Grandy and DeAza on here, maybe the solution is to send DeAza to ADD classes. It seems like he loses focus. He does have a lot of 2-for-5 type games. If somebody could get him to pull his head out, maybe he'd draw more walks and not be a huge liability on the basepaths and somewhat inconsistent center fielder as well. No doubt he sometimes has some pop in his bat. He's just a looney in so many areas. Maybe he needs Jerry to have a talk with him in spring training about how he's expected to do better. I think we just need to accept that some guys are league-average players and that they have some value as league average players. De Aza is upgradebale, but no matter how angry he made us getting picked off, he was NOT the guy that sunk this team. We gotta replace our black holes before we replace our boring-but-relatively-effective guys.

McCann gets a QO, Salty doesn't over on MLBTR. I officially just want Salty now. I don't want to give McCann $100m and give up a pick on top.

Granderson is from here guys. I don't think him being in town means anything.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Nov 2, 2013 -> 01:48 PM) Ok, I see your point, but we wouldn't know what GMs are paying per win if Fangraphs didn't have the formula in place to begin with. So I don't really know which would is more true than the other since they go hand in hand. I'm just trying to clarify what you were saying about that so that people don't start crying about how sabermetrics is dumb because it turns wins into money, that's all.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Nov 2, 2013 -> 01:38 PM) I never said that. So what is your response to that statement. Do you admit that you're wrong that speedy centerfielders never provide value into their mid thirties?

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Nov 2, 2013 -> 01:35 PM) And just because it was brought up about 30+ yr old OFers being worth $20M or not...... # of OF by season who put up a 4+ WAR after age 30.... 2013 - 7 OF (3 of them had 20+ SB) 2012 - 6 OF (2 of them had 20+ SB) 2011 - 7 OF (1 of them had 20+ SB) 2010 - 6 OF (2 of them had 20+ SB) 2009 - 5 OF (2 of them had 20+ SB) 2008 - 7 OF (3 of them had 20+ SB) I chose a WAR of 4 because Fangraphs values a win close to $5M, so 4+ would get you around that $20M a year figure. Just a minor qualm I have with the bolded statement. It's not really accurate to say "Fangraphs values a win at $5m," because that implies that there is a sabermetric formula for measure a win in dollars. This isn't true. Fangraphs has simply measured what teams pay on the open market per WAR. In free agency, teams pay $5m per WAR for players, on average. So that's what is meant when people use that figure to talk about if a player has been "worth" his contract.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Nov 2, 2013 -> 01:33 PM) When did I ever say anything about Coco Crisp's defense? Someone made an argument that Coco Crisp has provided substantial value into his mid thirties, and you dismissed it because of defensive metrics, which is dodging the question. Are you saying Coco Crisp HASN'T provided substantial value into his mid-thirties? How would you know?

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Nov 2, 2013 -> 01:24 PM) My eyes tell me if a player is a bad/good/great defender. I want to see his positioning, his instincts, his first step, his arm strength, the way he moves, how he reads the ball, the decisions he makes, his rhythm. Defense is an art, not math. If this is true, how could you possibly have a valid opinion about how to value Coco Crisp's defense?