Eminor3rd

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 4, 2013 -> 11:47 AM) After reading about Grandy and DeAza on here, maybe the solution is to send DeAza to ADD classes. It seems like he loses focus. He does have a lot of 2-for-5 type games. If somebody could get him to pull his head out, maybe he'd draw more walks and not be a huge liability on the basepaths and somewhat inconsistent center fielder as well. No doubt he sometimes has some pop in his bat. He's just a looney in so many areas. Maybe he needs Jerry to have a talk with him in spring training about how he's expected to do better. I think we just need to accept that some guys are league-average players and that they have some value as league average players. De Aza is upgradebale, but no matter how angry he made us getting picked off, he was NOT the guy that sunk this team. We gotta replace our black holes before we replace our boring-but-relatively-effective guys.

McCann gets a QO, Salty doesn't over on MLBTR. I officially just want Salty now. I don't want to give McCann $100m and give up a pick on top.

Granderson is from here guys. I don't think him being in town means anything.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Nov 2, 2013 -> 01:48 PM) Ok, I see your point, but we wouldn't know what GMs are paying per win if Fangraphs didn't have the formula in place to begin with. So I don't really know which would is more true than the other since they go hand in hand. I'm just trying to clarify what you were saying about that so that people don't start crying about how sabermetrics is dumb because it turns wins into money, that's all.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Nov 2, 2013 -> 01:38 PM) I never said that. So what is your response to that statement. Do you admit that you're wrong that speedy centerfielders never provide value into their mid thirties?

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Nov 2, 2013 -> 01:35 PM) And just because it was brought up about 30+ yr old OFers being worth $20M or not...... # of OF by season who put up a 4+ WAR after age 30.... 2013 - 7 OF (3 of them had 20+ SB) 2012 - 6 OF (2 of them had 20+ SB) 2011 - 7 OF (1 of them had 20+ SB) 2010 - 6 OF (2 of them had 20+ SB) 2009 - 5 OF (2 of them had 20+ SB) 2008 - 7 OF (3 of them had 20+ SB) I chose a WAR of 4 because Fangraphs values a win close to $5M, so 4+ would get you around that $20M a year figure. Just a minor qualm I have with the bolded statement. It's not really accurate to say "Fangraphs values a win at $5m," because that implies that there is a sabermetric formula for measure a win in dollars. This isn't true. Fangraphs has simply measured what teams pay on the open market per WAR. In free agency, teams pay $5m per WAR for players, on average. So that's what is meant when people use that figure to talk about if a player has been "worth" his contract.

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Nov 2, 2013 -> 01:33 PM) When did I ever say anything about Coco Crisp's defense? Someone made an argument that Coco Crisp has provided substantial value into his mid thirties, and you dismissed it because of defensive metrics, which is dodging the question. Are you saying Coco Crisp HASN'T provided substantial value into his mid-thirties? How would you know?

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Nov 2, 2013 -> 01:24 PM) My eyes tell me if a player is a bad/good/great defender. I want to see his positioning, his instincts, his first step, his arm strength, the way he moves, how he reads the ball, the decisions he makes, his rhythm. Defense is an art, not math. If this is true, how could you possibly have a valid opinion about how to value Coco Crisp's defense?

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Nov 2, 2013 -> 01:15 PM) Of course I value defense. I will never value defensive stats. Defense is evaluated with eyes, not numbers. Don't even bother trying to change my mind, it will be pointless. What is your argument for this?

QUOTE (TaylorStSox @ Nov 2, 2013 -> 01:04 PM) You want to pay Juan Pierre and Coco Crisp $20M a year? You don't pay guys that rely on speed that much unless their name is Ricky Henderson. Honestly, any stats that use defensive metrics to place value on a player don't mean a whole lot to me. To be clear, I am totally with you that we should not be signing guys like Ellsbury right now. BUT The bolded statement seems very short-sighted without an accompanying explanation. Do you not value defense, or do you not trust the numbers? If it's the latter, what is it about the numbers you don't trust?

I can't see any way anyone ever considers Santiago a #2 starter. That doesn't mean I think he has no value, but let's be realistic, he's a 3/4. It's fine to say you still think he has upside, but it isn't like his stuff is overwhelming and he just needs to learn to harness it.

Just bought a shirt

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 04:37 PM) Wasn't it a labrum? Either way, he's a guy I'm staying away from. Eesh, that's much worse. Yeah I just meant that the Cards may be hesitant to deal their young depth if they aren't sure about Garcia's health.

Roughly, for reference: fWAR = Sacrifice completeness for the sake of accuracy bWAR = Sacrifice accuracy for the sake of completeness

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 03:06 PM) I think they'll look to move Lynn before they look to move Martinez. Also, Garcia coming off TJ isn't a sure thing.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 03:50 PM) Isn't that amazing that once Chris Sale reaches Javy Vazquez's # of IP, he will likely have the same WAR that Javy did for us. Javy was kind of a victim of being born 5-6 years too early. If he was putting up that string of 4.9, 5.0, 4.9 WAR seasons with the Sox NOW instead of from 06-08, he would have been making a lot more money than he did. He was considerably valuable, despite his 6th inning meltdowns. Interesting indeed.

Yep, our guys have ALWAYS given us a ton of solid innings, which is a big factor in fWAR.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 03:29 PM) Gary Sanchez from the Yankees comes to mind immediately of those ranked in the top 100 pre-season (the Mariners nor Mets will trade Zunino/D'Arnaud). Other guys like Tony Sanchez and Jason Castro make some semblance of sense as well, though Castro is less prospect territory and more "turning into a stud" territory. That is one guy I would give Quintana up for and not think twice. That route is less than optimal, but it's an option. I was hoping we could snatch Blake Swihart in the Peavy deal. But I don't think we have anyone the Red Sox want now.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 03:28 PM) Zunino or buy low on Jesus Montero from the Mariners? D'Arnaud from the Mets? Those are all I can think of. But I don't see them giving them up No reason at all Zunino would be available, and I don't think there's anyone left that still thinks Montero is a C.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 03:08 PM) I'm not going to go back for specifics, but he was a very popular player here. One poster even said he asked him at a game if he would like to play in Chicago and he supposedly said yes, and there were some hopeful follow up posts that it would happen. I think everyone figured Boston really overpaid, but to say no one wanted Crawford at any price is silly and wrong. He won a Gold Glove, Silver Slugger and was 7th in the MVP vote, and the Sox could always use a CF who could lead off. He was an excellent player in Tampa, and was 28 or 29 when he became a free agent. You knew the production at some point would drop. but he fell off the charts almost immediately. Of course he was a very popular player, he was really good and getting better until he signed his contract.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 08:27 AM) Do we really know that? We don't know if he'll turn out to be the right step, but from his stats, we can be fairly confident in saying it's an ATTEMPT in the right direction.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 11:36 AM) If you took salary considerations out of it, I'd guess 15-18 teams would take a risk on Dunn over DeAza. The comment was specifically that there were 8 players WORSE than DeAza. We're not arguing about "value" or ROI or anything like that. I'm not going to argue that DeAza wasn't BETTER than Conor overall in 2013 if you take everything into consideration....but who is likely to be the better player in 2014 or 2015 or 2016? That's far from clear. Most would argue both of them should be platoon players. Probably, the White Sox are one of 5-7 teams that DeAza and Beckham would both be starters...until Semien pushes out Beckham, they can afford to give him one more season. Same thing with Thompson and DeAza/Viciedo. Maybe after the way the Cardinals played down the stretch in the World Series, they would give some serious consideration to DeAza and Ramirez in a package deal...for Wong and Martinez. Here's how I'd lay it out. Likely worse than De Aza 1. Flowers 2. Phegley 3. Dunn 4. Viciedo 5. Jordan Danks 6. Beckham 7. Gillaspie 8. Keppinger 9. L. Garcia Likely better than De Aza 1. A. Garcia (hopefully) 2. Ramirez 3. Abreu Who knows 1. Semien 2. Konerko? You can argue a couple specific names either way, depending on how you are choosing to value contributions (upside, cost, whatever), the point isn't that there are exactly 8 or 7 or 11 or whatever players worse than De Aza, it's that there are many players that are good bets to contribute less than De Aza next year. Therefore, if you are concerned about winning in 2014, replacing De Aza should NOT be your #1 priority. That is my point.

QUOTE (JoshPR @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 10:29 AM) I agree with you on the rest too. Just in case you wondered... That's all I'm saying. It's not that De Aza is awesome or irreplaceable, it's just that he is not even close to the biggest problem we have.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 02:42 AM) We had exactly 3 hitters who amassed more than a WAR of 1.0 last season. THREE f***ING HITTERS!!! One of those was Rios who isn't even here anymore. Just because he was one of the tallest midgets doesn't mean him a tall person. No, I totally get you here. You can argue that everyone on the team sucks and so they should all go if possible and you can make a lot of sense -- but this guy is arguing that the Sox need to be spending more money on big free agent signings so the team can be better next year. You don't add a couple nice players and then get rid of of one of your best to offset it, even if he isn't THAT good. There's just no way you can argue that the team should get better NEXT year by losing De Aza at all costs when there are 8 WAY worse players that should obviously be replaced first.

QUOTE (JoshPR @ Nov 1, 2013 -> 04:48 AM) Really??? How many games did this dufus cost us with bad defense, bad baserunning and overall being stupid? He's Carlos Lee part Deux. Tell me what was CLee's WAR in a sox uni? And I recall vividly how 95% on this board wanted him gone... Think outside the sabermetrics box sometimes.... How many games did everyone else cost us just from playing like s*** constantly? His baserunning errors seem like louder mistakes to you, but the fact of the matter is the dude hit better than almost everyone, stole a lot of bases at a solid success rate, and actually played better defense even after his errors than the other inept players that were beside him. How many games did Viciedo/Flowers/Beckham/Keppinger/Phegley/etc. cost us from just getting f***ing out like EVERY time they came to the plate? You don't have to use sabermetrics to come to this conclusion, just look at what happened. I don't know why 4-5 stupid baserunning plays in the midst of a solid season makes him worse than the near constant failure that plagued almost everyone else on the roster.