Eminor3rd

I've been all about McCann for a long time now, but I wouldn't be surprised if the JDA signing took a lot of the money away from the McCann fund. Let's not forget that this is a 99 loss team. Situations like the 2013 Red Sox are uncommon, and they had a much better core than we do. Spending needs to happen, but it needs to happen cautiously. I don't think Hahn wants to put his job on the line in year two. That said, I'd love to have McCann, I just think it's much less likely now.

QUOTE (La Marr Hoyt HOF @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 06:58 AM) AJ is a better alternative Why? I think we've all agreed that if we're going to spend on FA, it should be for players who will be valuable 3-5 years out.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Oct 18, 2013 -> 09:26 AM) Yes, it's worth reiterating, when many of you continue to suggest acquiring more right handed hitters. If Hahn spends big money on another right handed hitter, I'll be shocked. Forget names such as Corey Hart, John Buck, Marlon Byrd etc. Moreover, there was more to my post, which only mentioned the need for the left handed hitter as the context in which I was speculating about the rest of the roster, and the lineup. What is your suggestion, beyond that I not belabor the need for a left handed hitter? I think you did just fine and you're right -- since you didn't suggest Grady Sizemore

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 10:55 PM) personally I think this closes the books on Granderson. Thank God. Amen to that

QUOTE (bbilek1 @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 08:55 PM) Can anyone give any extensive details about how the negotiations work? As far as the sealed bid process, etc. He's an unrestricted free agent -- if there are rules like 'sealed bids,' JDA and his agent are making them up themselves. Could be anything.

John Lannan is really bad.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 07:08 PM) I hope someone can fill me in on how this predictor translator works: “@enosarris: Abreu's in news, so here's his Davenport Translation (biggest sample): .321/.446/.660. DT for Cespedes .271/.338/.489 (real: 265/.324/.472)” I'm not sure how it works, but I'm pretty sure the general consensus is that while DT is our best estimator for this type of thing, it's not really very accurate. It's a pretty old model, I'm not sure if Clay kept updating it.

QUOTE (SoxFan562004 @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 05:03 PM) Yeah, Votto point obviously makes it make no sense, I was watching from fringe, looks like Rangers were part of it before he cut it down to 3, just mental lapse! Ahhh, that adds up better

QUOTE (SoxFan562004 @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 04:42 PM) I saw it in one of the stories threads, but weren't the Reds one of the teams mentioned that were in on him?

QUOTE (Vance Law @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 03:58 PM) Right. League average 1B put up a .776 OPS last year. An Adam Laroche. And what does a guy like that get on the FA market (requiring a loss of draft pick)? 12 million a year. Granted, Laroche isn't locking up a 6 year commitment, but Abreu is only 26. $10 -$12 million for a league average firstbaseman's 26 - 32 years is a pretty reasonable deal. Obviously there's a small chance he's a total bust, but I doubt it. Some chance he's a star, but if not, the deal is fine for some who's just solid. This ^

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 08:32 AM) I don't believe Alejandro De Aza can learn how to steal bases. (show Alexei's improvement) Yeah BUT HOW DID HE DO IN THE FIELD It's entirely possible, in that you can't DISPROVE it, that a player's defensive and baserunning skills are fueled by the SAME pool of mana. If this is true, and also the law of conservation of mass and energy is true, we can assume that any improvement ADA would make in one category would necessarily make him worse in the other. As far as explaining him getting worse at both? He would have to have been selling his mana for drugs or something.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 02:17 AM) What is the downward OPS/WAR correction from that Boston Red Sox offense to the White Sox, where there would be a lot less protection and definitely more offensive production expected...more pressure to earn his contract? There wouldn't be any correction -- WAR is based on context-neutral offensive statistics and is thus inherently adjusted for league and offensive environment, so it's safe to compare results from team to team. As far as lineup protection goes, it's among the most heavily researched controversies in sabermetrics today. People have tried very hard to find an effect for it, but no one has been able to do so. At least among sabermetricians, the current consensus is that lineup protection is a myth. I admit that it really does feel like it should be important intuitively, but the studies I've read have been pretty compelling. I guess it's more accurate to say that lineup protection does not have a significant effect on the offensive outcomes of a player -- it's still possible that there are several actual effects happening on the field that just happen to cancel each other out. It just doesn't end up with a player hitting better or worse. I have no idea how to tell if he'd respond significantly to changing levels of pressure. I guess that's just something the team has to try to gauge when getting to know him. EDIT: Once again didn't see that wite already said this. I do this s*** with email, too. I have a bunch to read and I just take them one by one only to realize that there have been more emails further down in my pile that have changed the situation. I'm not very effective as a person, overall.

QUOTE (Steve9347 @ Oct 17, 2013 -> 09:30 AM) I am glad the White Sox are rid of Jake Peavy. Interesting.

I don't know guys... if his true talent is 2013 Salty, he could be a real solid contributor for several years. He'll only be 29 next year, and he just put up a 3.7 WAR season. A lot of that is from above average defense. I'd pay $8m a year for 3-4 WAR for the next 4 years without blinking.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 04:33 PM) We NEED him worst than any of the other teams. I know Houston is a worse team, but he doesn'e help Houston like he helps us. I'm more afraid of the Rangers nabbing him.

QUOTE (Tex @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 02:58 PM) Perhaps it is the one stat that incorporates or covers that catch all we call "intangibles"? Where else would you find a stat that shows his teamates play just a little bit harder when he is on the mound? Or worse, the guy that his teammates seem to take the day off with? I could be, and mostly am, convinced that W-L is the least valuable of the stats we find on the back of a baseball card. I haven't been convinced yet that we should throw it out. Yeah that's a tough one, but I think looking at run support and UZR or fielding percentage while a guy is on the mound would still be more useful for that, because at least that does a better job of stripping out the opposing team's influence.

QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 03:29 PM) Man that is a lot of money for such an unproven one-way player. But a Abreu-Garcia-Viciedo middle of the order could be dynamic if they meet their potential. I'll take it because it fills such a huge hole for us for the next 5 or so years.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 03:39 PM) Nate Jones really did have a great, great year which was snake bitten by bad luck. 4.15 ERA off of a 2.64 FIP. Crazy. 62.5% LOB rate, whoops.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 03:27 PM) Let's take into consideration that closers are typically the best arms in the bullpen. Then let's consider that him being a top 10 closer would logically make him a top 10 reliever in the game. If he fell off to an average closer, that would still make him a good reliever. You can believe what you want to believe, but I truly do believe he is one of the best 15-20 relievers in the game. He's pretty damn solid. A guy who could fall off and become a AAAA arm at any point is Lindstrom. To add to this, FWIW, Addison Reed ranked 13th of all RP in fWAR last year, ahead of guys like Aroldis Chpaman, Jason Grilli, and Mariano Rivera: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0 Regardless of how you feel about fWAR, it is a stat based on FIP, which is designed to strip context (run support, bad defense, etc.) out of the pitcher's performance. This makes some intuitive sense considering how bad our defense was. EDIT: Also, #8? Nate Jones

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 03:16 PM) In reality then, isn't he dangerously close to being just another pen arm considering his velocity arrow is pointing down. Yeah, but so is almost every reliever in baseball. VERY few elite closers that have long, sustained success.

QUOTE (pittshoganerkoff @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 01:58 PM) Wasn't that Major League 2? And wasn't he cured by looking at a Victoria's Secret catalog? Now we know what our defense needs to do in Spring Training!

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 02:14 PM) Do you believe Addison Reed is an elite closer? No. But it has nothing to do with his save percentage. And I don't think we need to find an elite closer for 2014. Reed also has more upside, and player dev should be a priority for next year.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 01:10 PM) That's all well and good, but that 83% save percentage says maybe he should keep the velocity, B! 83% save percentage says nothing at all, unfortunately, in terms of predicting future success. Especially given he was in front of the worst defense in the league.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 12:18 PM) We've seen this pen in in action and it wasnt all that impressive. Reed is close to being just another pen arm, Jones is just another pen arm, and Crain is coming off of a shoulder injury. Webb has the stuff to be closer, we'll see. Here's the problem, though: bullpens are the most unpredictable group of guys in baseball form year to year. This evidence is everywhere. Elite bullpens come out of nowhere each year, and formerly elite bullpens crash and burn. Their use is so context-driven and their appearance make up such small samples, that treating them as guaranteed is asking for failure, What is important is that you have some guys with good stuff and are coachable, and you employ them the best you can. These guys all have good stuff. There's a ton of upside as well as downside, but for our 99 loss team, I don;t want them blowing money here.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Oct 16, 2013 -> 01:53 PM) (He gets one more year.) Agreed, with the caveat being that he can lose his job to an internal candidate if that's how it rolls.