Eminor3rd

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 04:14 PM) Why is it that only an untouchable prospect would be worth $30M? You won't even be able to get Abreau for that. Abreu is 26, whoever pays up for him will be doing so because they see him as a Major Leaguer.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 04:06 PM) lol we've been doing that a lot lately.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 03:57 PM) If they are offered the right prospect why not, right? But who would offer a prospect to the White Sox for taking on a bad contract anyway? Let alone the ype of guy that would make this worthwhile -- we're talking like Taillon or Buxton or some other untouchable.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 03:42 PM) They should be getting these guys in addition to trying to get another top young hitter. Of course they should.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 12:45 PM) I went with whatever the "stock" number of PAs, which looking at it now is "qualified". When switching it to 200 abs things made more sense. Phegley claims the #2 spot right behind AJ with a 46.4% O-Swing% (Flowers is 55th with a 37.2) Avi, our new golden boy, shows up in 11th with a 42.9% Dayan then shows up at #13 with a 42.5% Lexi's 41.8% is #16 So that is 4 of the Sox 9 regulars that are in the top 20....That's pretty alarming. That sounds more like the team I saw this year, lol.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 02:09 PM) It's pretty simple: Sign Abreu and McCann or AJP; McCann long term; AJ one year if can't get McCann. Then trade Hector and Beckham for a third baseman. Let Semien play second. Now you then sign Granderson or Choo while trading DeAza for whatever you can get for him. You now have better hitters in the lineup than this year: McCann, Grandy, Abreu, Semien and A. Garcia. That's a pretty fricking good upgrade and IT CAN BE ACCOMPLISHED. How much money are you going to have to give McCann to choose us over Texas or Boston? You comfortable going up to 5/100 for Choo? Can you afford both of them and still find $70m for Abreu? Which third baseman is available for Beckham and Hector? I don't know, that sounds like a tall order to me.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 01:02 PM) So you are taking a chance either way. I'd rather they took a chance using money in 2014 & 2015 on a player who might be around to contribute in 2016 and beyond then spend money in 2014 and 2015 on a player who will contribute those years, but isn't likely to contribute much after that. Just personal preference I guess. The chances are not at all equal. You are much much more likely to get what you paid for, at least in the short term, with a free agent, than you are to ever get any value from a prospect. I'm not advocating building the team via free agency, I'm just saying that buying prospects at free agent prices is even worse.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 12:54 PM) Free Agents best years are often behind them when they sign with their new team. Prospects' best years often never come when they are acquired by their new team.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 12:12 PM) Of course buying prospects isn't the way to go ordinarily, but the Sox farm system is near the bottom of MLB at a time when they are embarking on a rebuild. The resource they do have is money and they should use it even if they have to pay a premium for said prospect(s) in order to shorten the process. Signing a free agent for $30M over the next 2 or 3 years does nothing for the years this team should be pointing to which is 2016 and beyond. But the only reason the prospect creates value is because he DOESN'T cost what a free agent costs. Because you need a ton of those prospects in order to ensure that enough will pan out. It only works because you can afford to have a ton of them. If cost is equal, a free agent is a better bet to provide value than a prospect. If you don't think a $30m free agent will help now, you're better off putting it in the bank and buying the free agent when you need it then you are spending the money on a guy now that has a ~5% chance of working out at all and may or may not be ready when you actually need him.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 30, 2013 -> 11:00 PM) This is honestly the first time I've ever seen the stat. I assume a high percentage is bad right, so I think I mean worst in O-Swing. AJP is worst at 47%, Ramirez is 7th at 41%. and PK is 89th at 28%. With all the talks of the Sox being free swingers, and swinging at pitches outside the zone, you'd think there's be a lot more Sox in the top 100. PK in the top 100 might surprise some (greg) as well. Your understanding is correct, but I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers. PK's 28% is better than league average (31%) according to FG's table of Pitch F/X data, so I'm not sure how PK is in the bottom 100. Do you have a high threshold for minimum PA's or something?

Here's a summary, Marty: Bernstein's idea would be bad for the White Sox because: The whole reason prospects are so valuable is because they are cheap. This is why people reference 'surplus value.' If you pay $30m or whatever for the prospect, the prospect is no longer cheap. You have forfeited the surplus value. You would be better off signing a free agent because while there may be less upside, there is tremendously less risk. Bernstein's idea would be bad for the dumping team because: If a team is losing and wants to dump its overpaid veterans, that team is "rebuilding" and needs to horde prospects rather than give them away. The only way this would make sense is if a team is in danger of bankruptcy and needed to desperately shed debt. There would be no baseball reason to give away present and future talent solely for salary relief. There is no salary cap.

QUOTE (champs2005 @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 10:35 AM) I think James Loney is a FA after this year, I'd like to see the Sox go after him this off-season. Just like we went after Keppinger? Lol Man I don't get what black magic TB uses to make players play out of their minds for one year before turning back into a pumpkin the minute they leave. But it feels like it's happened enough that you can't help but wonder if there's a real reason for it. Keppinger, Kotchman, Farnsworth, Wright -- and current candidates Rodney, Young, and Loney.

QUOTE (Soxfest @ Oct 1, 2013 -> 11:27 PM) When he gets denied arbitration this will show Sox do not value him either. If the Sox non-tender De Aza this season, it either means he's a criminal and we don't know it yet, or that Rick Hahn should be immediately fired. This is why fans can't be GMs, too much emotion involved in the decisions we make. No reasonable argument I can make will change your mind that De Aza at ~$3m is a no brainer on this team, but it isn't because the argument isn't good, it's because you don't like him.

QUOTE (JoshPR @ Sep 29, 2013 -> 12:45 PM) What makes Cuba different? Don't we already got 2 free swingers that are from Cuba? I'm just saying that's the typical aggressive type. Hey if the sox get the guy great, but with Latin players it's difficult to call This is true, from what I understand. You need Pitch F/X data to really tell without watching him consistently. An unusually high number of Latino pitchers end up as relievers in the MLB, and many scouts (at least the media scouts whose podcasts keep me entertained during workouts) believe this is because the players are encouraged to take advantage of bad mechanics to maximize their velocity and stuff in showcases. The result is a delivery that is difficult to repeat and thus below-average control. So if you assume that pitchers in the Cuban league throw a lot of bad pitches, you could speculate that Abreu's successful high-OBP approach may not translate to the MLB. However, that's more of an argument to throw out his good numbers than to suggest he has a bad approach. We may not be able to prove he ISN'T a free swinger, but there doesn't appear to be any evidence whatsoever to conclude that he IS a free swinger.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 1, 2013 -> 05:22 PM) The article was that the Sox rebuild might follow a model that has not been seen in MLB before, taking on bad contracts for prospects. http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2013/08/07/ber...e-sox-optimism/ This is stupid. No team has ever done this because teams that are in a position to dump overpaid veterans for underperformance are the same teams that also need prospects to rebuild. This is the type of idea someone would get when they don't understand how professional sports work.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 30, 2013 -> 09:07 PM) It seems like both the Indians and the Red Sox went from worst (or close t worst) in the al this year. It's happened 11 times in baseball history, obviously more frequently since the leagues began splitting into divisions.

Is this the same Bernstein that published the article about how the Sox should take advantage of the growing trend to be given interesting prospects in return for taking on bad contracts? Because I don't think that Bernstein really follows baseball. He may have sources, but he's shown no indication of understanding what people tell him.

QUOTE (Soxfest @ Oct 1, 2013 -> 12:57 AM) How many times did De Aza get thrown out being stupid this year or doubled off a base. He is 30 years old and very replaceable. Not enough times to be a bad baserunner. He's not awesome, but if he's so replaceable, why is he our second best overall contributor on the position side? This team has several other players that need to be replaced first.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 30, 2013 -> 09:16 PM) Interestingly enough the White Sox only have 2 players in the top 100 in O-Swing% (Swings outside the zone), Ramirez and Konerko....The leader in the category? AJ Pierzynski. Wait, you mean top 100 in best O-Swing, but AJP being the leader as in the worst? I'm seeing Konerko at 28.5% and AJP at 47%.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Sep 30, 2013 -> 09:52 PM) What young star hitter is available? CarGo? Stanton? I can't see any situation where we could win the bidding on either of those guys

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/quick-hits-4.html

QUOTE (Soxfest @ Sep 30, 2013 -> 08:53 PM) On a 99 loss team and WORST baserunner in the league. Goodbye ADA Not even close -- he was a +3.5 runner by UBR (EDIT: which is a stat that factors everything, including taking extra bases on singles and the like), an above average figure that was third best on the team behind Ramirez and Rios. That includes 20 SB at 71% success rate, which is just above the line for positive value added in SB/CS.

QUOTE (winninguglyin83 @ Sep 30, 2013 -> 08:02 PM) Beckham made more than $2.9 million last season. I expect that would put him at $3.2 or so next season. I'm for giving him one more chance. He was having a solid season but was hurt repeatedly. Came back OK from the first one but not the second. Sox have bigger needs -- catcher, third baseman and another outfielder. My wish list starts with getting rid of Dunn. I don't think the culture of the team will improve until he's gone. He's not in shape. He's never played for a team that has made the post season. He can't field. He can't run. He can't throw. He can't hit for average. And I think his comments about how it was a wasted year since the Sox didn't make the playoffs came across as whiny. Until he leaves, I don't see a major improvement. Isn't we widely considered a good teammate? Do you not realize he was the most productive hitter on our team? With so much garbage on this team, why on Earth would you prioritize getting rid of the best hitter? I do not understand the personal player vendettas on this site. Don't you guys care about winning games?

QUOTE (Soxfest @ Sep 30, 2013 -> 07:16 PM) De Aza has to go. He was the second best position player on the team in 2013 by fWAR.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 30, 2013 -> 06:20 PM) I wonder how many guys the new hitting coach will recommend keeping? We have a lot of players that could be reclamation projects if they are not traded/released. We say Coop saves lousy pitchers off the scrap heap. Will the new hitting coach want to try with some of our hitters? This hitting coach ... will he want to try to make a hitter out of an unproductive first-round pick in Beckham? Does he think Viciedo can learn how to recognize a pitch out of the strike zone and learn how to hit? Does he think Flowers and/or Phegs can learn how to hit? Will he even want the job knowing he has to work with Mr. Whiff at An Alarming Rate, Adam Dunn? Can he take Lexi to the next level? Or will he yawn and tell Hahn he only is looking forward to A. Garcia in this current lineup? Garcia needs just as much work on the strike zone as Viciedo -- he just makes more contact.