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QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 12:12 PM) Of course buying prospects isn't the way to go ordinarily, but the Sox farm system is near the bottom of MLB at a time when they are embarking on a rebuild. The resource they do have is money and they should use it even if they have to pay a premium for said prospect(s) in order to shorten the process. Signing a free agent for $30M over the next 2 or 3 years does nothing for the years this team should be pointing to which is 2016 and beyond. But the only reason the prospect creates value is because he DOESN'T cost what a free agent costs. Because you need a ton of those prospects in order to ensure that enough will pan out. It only works because you can afford to have a ton of them. If cost is equal, a free agent is a better bet to provide value than a prospect. If you don't think a $30m free agent will help now, you're better off putting it in the bank and buying the free agent when you need it then you are spending the money on a guy now that has a ~5% chance of working out at all and may or may not be ready when you actually need him.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 30, 2013 -> 11:00 PM) This is honestly the first time I've ever seen the stat. I assume a high percentage is bad right, so I think I mean worst in O-Swing. AJP is worst at 47%, Ramirez is 7th at 41%. and PK is 89th at 28%. With all the talks of the Sox being free swingers, and swinging at pitches outside the zone, you'd think there's be a lot more Sox in the top 100. PK in the top 100 might surprise some (greg) as well. Your understanding is correct, but I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers. PK's 28% is better than league average (31%) according to FG's table of Pitch F/X data, so I'm not sure how PK is in the bottom 100. Do you have a high threshold for minimum PA's or something?

Here's a summary, Marty: Bernstein's idea would be bad for the White Sox because: The whole reason prospects are so valuable is because they are cheap. This is why people reference 'surplus value.' If you pay $30m or whatever for the prospect, the prospect is no longer cheap. You have forfeited the surplus value. You would be better off signing a free agent because while there may be less upside, there is tremendously less risk. Bernstein's idea would be bad for the dumping team because: If a team is losing and wants to dump its overpaid veterans, that team is "rebuilding" and needs to horde prospects rather than give them away. The only way this would make sense is if a team is in danger of bankruptcy and needed to desperately shed debt. There would be no baseball reason to give away present and future talent solely for salary relief. There is no salary cap.

QUOTE (champs2005 @ Oct 2, 2013 -> 10:35 AM) I think James Loney is a FA after this year, I'd like to see the Sox go after him this off-season. Just like we went after Keppinger? Lol Man I don't get what black magic TB uses to make players play out of their minds for one year before turning back into a pumpkin the minute they leave. But it feels like it's happened enough that you can't help but wonder if there's a real reason for it. Keppinger, Kotchman, Farnsworth, Wright -- and current candidates Rodney, Young, and Loney.

QUOTE (Soxfest @ Oct 1, 2013 -> 11:27 PM) When he gets denied arbitration this will show Sox do not value him either. If the Sox non-tender De Aza this season, it either means he's a criminal and we don't know it yet, or that Rick Hahn should be immediately fired. This is why fans can't be GMs, too much emotion involved in the decisions we make. No reasonable argument I can make will change your mind that De Aza at ~$3m is a no brainer on this team, but it isn't because the argument isn't good, it's because you don't like him.

QUOTE (JoshPR @ Sep 29, 2013 -> 12:45 PM) What makes Cuba different? Don't we already got 2 free swingers that are from Cuba? I'm just saying that's the typical aggressive type. Hey if the sox get the guy great, but with Latin players it's difficult to call This is true, from what I understand. You need Pitch F/X data to really tell without watching him consistently. An unusually high number of Latino pitchers end up as relievers in the MLB, and many scouts (at least the media scouts whose podcasts keep me entertained during workouts) believe this is because the players are encouraged to take advantage of bad mechanics to maximize their velocity and stuff in showcases. The result is a delivery that is difficult to repeat and thus below-average control. So if you assume that pitchers in the Cuban league throw a lot of bad pitches, you could speculate that Abreu's successful high-OBP approach may not translate to the MLB. However, that's more of an argument to throw out his good numbers than to suggest he has a bad approach. We may not be able to prove he ISN'T a free swinger, but there doesn't appear to be any evidence whatsoever to conclude that he IS a free swinger.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Oct 1, 2013 -> 05:22 PM) The article was that the Sox rebuild might follow a model that has not been seen in MLB before, taking on bad contracts for prospects. http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2013/08/07/ber...e-sox-optimism/ This is stupid. No team has ever done this because teams that are in a position to dump overpaid veterans for underperformance are the same teams that also need prospects to rebuild. This is the type of idea someone would get when they don't understand how professional sports work.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 30, 2013 -> 09:07 PM) It seems like both the Indians and the Red Sox went from worst (or close t worst) in the al this year. It's happened 11 times in baseball history, obviously more frequently since the leagues began splitting into divisions.

Is this the same Bernstein that published the article about how the Sox should take advantage of the growing trend to be given interesting prospects in return for taking on bad contracts? Because I don't think that Bernstein really follows baseball. He may have sources, but he's shown no indication of understanding what people tell him.

QUOTE (Soxfest @ Oct 1, 2013 -> 12:57 AM) How many times did De Aza get thrown out being stupid this year or doubled off a base. He is 30 years old and very replaceable. Not enough times to be a bad baserunner. He's not awesome, but if he's so replaceable, why is he our second best overall contributor on the position side? This team has several other players that need to be replaced first.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 30, 2013 -> 09:16 PM) Interestingly enough the White Sox only have 2 players in the top 100 in O-Swing% (Swings outside the zone), Ramirez and Konerko....The leader in the category? AJ Pierzynski. Wait, you mean top 100 in best O-Swing, but AJP being the leader as in the worst? I'm seeing Konerko at 28.5% and AJP at 47%.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Sep 30, 2013 -> 09:52 PM) What young star hitter is available? CarGo? Stanton? I can't see any situation where we could win the bidding on either of those guys

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/quick-hits-4.html

QUOTE (Soxfest @ Sep 30, 2013 -> 08:53 PM) On a 99 loss team and WORST baserunner in the league. Goodbye ADA Not even close -- he was a +3.5 runner by UBR (EDIT: which is a stat that factors everything, including taking extra bases on singles and the like), an above average figure that was third best on the team behind Ramirez and Rios. That includes 20 SB at 71% success rate, which is just above the line for positive value added in SB/CS.

QUOTE (winninguglyin83 @ Sep 30, 2013 -> 08:02 PM) Beckham made more than $2.9 million last season. I expect that would put him at $3.2 or so next season. I'm for giving him one more chance. He was having a solid season but was hurt repeatedly. Came back OK from the first one but not the second. Sox have bigger needs -- catcher, third baseman and another outfielder. My wish list starts with getting rid of Dunn. I don't think the culture of the team will improve until he's gone. He's not in shape. He's never played for a team that has made the post season. He can't field. He can't run. He can't throw. He can't hit for average. And I think his comments about how it was a wasted year since the Sox didn't make the playoffs came across as whiny. Until he leaves, I don't see a major improvement. Isn't we widely considered a good teammate? Do you not realize he was the most productive hitter on our team? With so much garbage on this team, why on Earth would you prioritize getting rid of the best hitter? I do not understand the personal player vendettas on this site. Don't you guys care about winning games?

QUOTE (Soxfest @ Sep 30, 2013 -> 07:16 PM) De Aza has to go. He was the second best position player on the team in 2013 by fWAR.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 30, 2013 -> 06:20 PM) I wonder how many guys the new hitting coach will recommend keeping? We have a lot of players that could be reclamation projects if they are not traded/released. We say Coop saves lousy pitchers off the scrap heap. Will the new hitting coach want to try with some of our hitters? This hitting coach ... will he want to try to make a hitter out of an unproductive first-round pick in Beckham? Does he think Viciedo can learn how to recognize a pitch out of the strike zone and learn how to hit? Does he think Flowers and/or Phegs can learn how to hit? Will he even want the job knowing he has to work with Mr. Whiff at An Alarming Rate, Adam Dunn? Can he take Lexi to the next level? Or will he yawn and tell Hahn he only is looking forward to A. Garcia in this current lineup? Garcia needs just as much work on the strike zone as Viciedo -- he just makes more contact.

QUOTE (spiderman @ Sep 30, 2013 -> 05:25 PM) How old is McCain? How many years would be smart for a catcher? I'm hesitant to go crazy on a catcher, I'm more in the camp of signing somebody who can play defense. 29. I think you sign him assuming he can only catch healthy for a couple more years, then becomes a 1B/DH. Fortunately, that timeline is great for the White Sox, who will be phasing out Konerko/Dunn and have absolutely nothing knocking on the door in the minors, save a shot in the dark with Wilkins.

Verducci effect has been disproved dozens of times now.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 30, 2013 -> 04:13 PM) This is as good of a place as any for this... Gordo and Alexei lead their defensive positions in runs saved through double plays turned. http://www.southsidesox.com/2013/9/29/4782...-at-turning-two Beckham's arm is his plus tool at second. The range is solid, the gloves is solid. He's a slightly above average defender, but not nearly good enough to justify the bat. You don't cut him by any means, but you don't let him stand in the way of someone better. To me, we have enough old-ish MI prospects that someone needs to move out of the way. Ideally, you move the aging Ramirez, but if there's no deal there, I say a strong spring training from Semien or Garcia should relegate Beckham to a part-time role or DFA.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 30, 2013 -> 03:22 PM) I'm kinda surprised there isn't anyone giving Beckham the benefit of the doubt. I mean he was batting in the .320s before his wrist flared up in July. I'm not saying I'm not down with replacing him with Semien I'm just surprised to see no one make this point. There's certainly a case to be made for Gordons return. He's had 5 years. The guy is bound to have a hot month or two in there, but the trend is clear.

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Sep 30, 2013 -> 04:54 PM) And productive is the exact word I used in my original comment... And I too would rather have an 81-83 win team talent wise GOING IN TO THE YEAR than a 73-75 win team talent wise. My philosophy about wanting 1) a good team then 2) a bad team then 3) an average team is referring to the result at the end of the season. You never want to END UP with an average season. You can surely go in to the year being average, experience luck, a trade, injuries to opponents, rookies being called up, career years, whatever, and become a contender like the 2012 White Sox, but I am saying by the end of October, the worst thing you could have had was an average season. I disagree. There aren't many cases of "first to worst." They happens sometimes, but most of the time team's need to get decent before they get good. Next year, for example, I'd be plenty happy with 75 wins if I feel like team came by them via legitimate, sustainable improvement. That means we're moving in the right direction and can keep getting better.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 30, 2013 -> 02:52 PM) I think that is because of the type of hitters they are, not because Jeff Manto says do this do that. Manto actually preached contact. You wouldn't know it watching them hit. Thinking he's saying go up there, make sure you don't walk and swing as hard as you can in case you hit it is just not the truth. People erroneously thought Walker preached that as well. Remember the old "lift and pull"? I think Semien will be better, but not because they are changing hitting coaches. Hopefully he becomes a star and gives the new guy all the credit. I don't really care about walk rates as long as a guy is swinging a good pitches to hit, the only thing being if you generally are only swinging at decent pitches to hit, you most likely are going to walk a fair share of time. There have been a couple of exceptions, and the Sox are probably pinning a lot of their hopes on Garcia who probably is going to have to be an exception. Agree 100% with the bolded. I actually am not even worried about the team's strikeout problem, it's the contact with bad pitches that gets me. And that's what I didn't like about Manto -- he seemed to be in the "expand the zone to drive in runs" school that is led by Harold Reynolds. The only time that ever makes sense is if you're TRYING to make a productive out like a sac fly or a grounder to the right side. "Run producers" should be looking to rip doubles, and you need to be selective to do that with regularity.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Sep 30, 2013 -> 02:38 PM) This. There is no one in the system right now that should be untouchable. Not even close. Agreed 100%. Our best guys are still flawed guys.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 30, 2013 -> 02:34 PM) It seems every White Sox prospect has 0 or 1 walks and 20+ strikeouts their first 70 ABs in the major leagues. I still don't know how you pin that on the major league hitting coach. He isn't going to be changing their approach immediately. Guys are overmatched. They are facing better pitchers than they have in the past, plus they are probably trying to show they are worthy and being a little or far too aggressive. Hopefully, Semien settles down and becomes a good hitter at the major league level. The point is that the entire White Sox roster -- save Adam Dunn, who had a disastrous early season bout of "humility" inspired by Sox coaches -- is full of dudes that swing at bad pitches and get themselves out. So while you're right that Semien's example may not be damning evidence, but it fits with the overarching trend, and that trend is a bad one.