Eminor3rd

QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Sep 9, 2013 -> 11:22 AM) Avi G is bad at defense? He sure has been so far. Have you watched him?

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Sep 9, 2013 -> 10:29 AM) I tend to agree with Balta on this - the pitching the Sox have going into 2014, and a few pitching prospects coming up, tell me a 3-4 year rebuild is not the way to go. If they can make one Big Splash (maybe Abreu for 1B, or some free agent), and improve at a couple spots in the lineup even a little... I think this team performs much differently next year. The defense is bizarre, after being so good last year, and I'd bet on it improving. There are young guys like Avisail Garcia and Marcus Semien that can provide some improvement and energy. That's before any offseason trades or signings. This isn't even to mention the fundamental aspect of the Sox fan base - unlike the Cubs fan base, they won't show up in droves for a horrific team. A long term rebuild is not workable for the Sox. The biggest issue is obviously finding the hitters. And this team does have significant money to play with. I think wite's point is that there's a difference between getting a guy like Abreu (who is 26 and comes with 6 years of control) and shelling up major dollars for newly post-prime guys that are only available because they are about to be overpaid or are injury prone. There's just a ton of downside because the latter guys are only going to be worth the money for the first couple years of the deal, and if anything goes wrong at all, you're now stuck with big bad contracts for years. I thin the Sox are 2-3 years from contention, but if they had signed free agents like that before, they'd be 5 years out like the Astros and Cubs were when they began this. I think we need to be patient and we'll be back sooner than we think.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 9, 2013 -> 09:33 AM) I won't pretend to know how WAR works and I hate to defend the Cubs but that stat is pretty surprising to me considering the Cubs have actually given up 10 less runs than the Sox....I know a lot of that has to do with guys like Axelrod, Troncoso, and Omogrosso who could easily be replaced by guys like Leesman, Petrika, and Webb or a free agent or 2. Still though that doesn't change the fact. Assuming he's referring to fWAR, the easy way to understand it is that it's assigning runs prevented based on DIPS (defense independent pitching statistics) theory. So it's purpose is to remove the influence of the defense behind the pitcher. When you consider how superbad the Sox defense has been, the disparity in runs scored versus fWAR actually makes a ton of sense. This is probably a really great example of when fWAR for pitchers is really helpful. Digression for the sake of explanation: In its current state, fWAR actually cuts a little too far for the sake of accuracy over completeness -- it is generally believed that DIPS actually deny pitchers credit for their ability to induce weak contact.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Sep 9, 2013 -> 05:28 AM) While I would love for your scenario to play out, Cano will never accept such a short deal. Why risk free agency again when someone will offer him a 9 or 10 year deal?

Reed is our MVP, right guys?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 6, 2013 -> 12:30 PM) One thing worth adding to this conversation is that between Garcia's speed and inside out swing, there is precedent for him being able to sustain a BABIP substantially over .300. The guy who comes to my mind first with an inside out swing as a righty is Jeter, yeah it's not a perfect comparison but run with it for a moment. Jeter has over his career (12000 PA's) put up a .354 BABIP. Yeah it's not over .400 so it still has to come down, but Jeter is legendary for wearing pitchers out going the other way and we've seen some of that from Garcia so far. Add every caveat you want, needs to cut down on the K's, swing at better pitches, show more power, etc., but its definitely worth remembering that guys with speed who spray the ball all over the field are tough to defend and they get a lot of balls that just drop. It is a good and valid point -- but Jeter is an inner circle Hall of Famer with like a 70 hit tool. Some of that BABIP certainly comes with good speed, but a whole lot more comes with consistently solid contact. Garcia's BABIP is currently driven more buy weak, out of the zone contact.

To me, it's balls out for Abreu no matter what, go pretty hard on McCann IF Konerko retires, then dig around for guys that are are being underrated. Only sign anyone else if it's a shockingly low price. Then IF you get someone like Ellsbury at that price in addition to Abreu, only then do you look at signing guys like Pence under any condition. No situation exists where you sign Kendry Morales given the conditions.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 6, 2013 -> 03:20 PM) For what it's worth Bucket did mention this all hypothetically happens if they miss out on Abreu. Should that happen who's the guy everyone wants to replace PK(That's basically what they'd be doing)??? Morales is the name we always hear on here and if you look at the numbers Morales vs Pence they are almost exactly the same. Morales- .280/.336//443 18 HRs 72 RBI Pence - .283/.334/.461 18 HRs 72 RBI The difference between the 2 though is obviously speed which obviously breaks the tie. Then throw in the fact that Pence is great in the clubhouse(something I think this team needs) I'd rather have Pence over Morales if they can't snag Abreu. Couple things to consider: (1) Seattle has leaked that they are planning on giving Morales a QO, so signing him would lose us a draft pick., and (2) Morales is like one fo the worst baserunners in the history of baseball. He's actually graded out worse than Konerko over the past 5 years somehow. If Morales turns down QO from Seattle, and we sign him to a multiyear deal at anything close to what it would take to be more attractive than 1yr/$14m, it will be a very horrible move. I can;t see any situation where that would make sense.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 6, 2013 -> 03:07 PM) Would you do Santiago for him? I would.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...&position=C Not sure about sequencing at all, of course, but it's interesting that he actually takes fewer pitches in the zone than league average -- the trouble is that he makes much less contact on those pitches than average. He also swings at a ton more pitches out of the zone of course.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 6, 2013 -> 02:01 PM) Yep, players have a tendency to spike. You'd think if he were still using - considering the tests in the minors are just as hard, if not harder - he'd have an OPS better than .550. Guys get hot. The best thing to do would be to hope that he can pick it up and continue. This ^ It's much more likely that he just played way over his head for a bit and the Sox tried to catch lightning in a bottle than it is he has been on steroids. He was all but a lost cause before it, remember, so it makes sense the Sox would promote him to see if he could stay afloat. It's not like Flowers was making a case otherwise.

It's not about how long it'll take, it's about how there's nothing to gain from winning a bunch of games. Seriously, unless some of these hitters have epiphanies about their approaches, they're probably better off eating s*** all month so there's a chance they'll actually be open to changing next year. If Garcia keeps accidentally getting hits by swinging at garbage and it wins us some games, we're worse off all around. So I'll revise my position. If we get a s*** draft pick because our core players actually turn developmental corners, I'll be thrilled. Be if we lose position because Viciedo closes his eyes and runs into 5 or 6 off of some BS minor league roster expansion pitcher, it sucks for everyone.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 6, 2013 -> 01:31 PM) I have no problem upgrading from either of them. Thinking about those two just makes McCann sound like a better idea. I would hate it if he had to be a C the whole time, but assuming Konerko retires soon and Dunn walks after next year, signing McCann sound like a great move for 2015/2016 even. And the meatballs would be satisfied during 2014.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 6, 2013 -> 12:01 PM) At $13 mill a year, I'd have no problem with Pence either. He still has one of the ugliest swings I've ever seen in my life, but it's obviously pretty effective given that he hits the ball 5 miles At his best, he's basically good Alex Rios. He's a final piece to a competitive team, not a guy the White Sox bring in for 2014 unless they singed three other big free agents already. EDIT: yes, "singed." They literally need to set three other free agents on fire in order to make Pence a good idea. lol.

Ewwww Hunter Pence?

QUOTE (Chilihead90 @ Sep 6, 2013 -> 01:22 AM) Gatewood is the name I keep paying attention to. Obviously Beede is going to be a very high pick too, but I really hope we go position player with our first 2-3 picks. We seem to be stocking pitchers. Best player available is fine with me, no matter who it is.

Sounds like a typical Jon Morosi scoop on the surgery.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 5, 2013 -> 03:50 PM) I would guess so too. I mean, in 2003, Vlad had an O-Swing of 34.8% and an O-Contact of 58.3% (while also Z-Swing and Contact at about 83% and 87%) and he walked at 13.5% and struck out at 11.3%. The strikeouts can be explained, but if he were swinging at 1/3 of all balls and putting those in play every 3/5 times, it'd seem to be essentially impossible for him to walk at 13.5%, no?. Yeah, I would think that would have to be the case. I wonder how many pitches he saw. I'd guess he had a ton of long at bats where he fouled several pitches off before eventually getting a walk.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 5, 2013 -> 02:54 PM) Is contact considered just hitting a ball, or hitting it in fair territory? That's a good question, not sure. The definition isn't too clear: "Z-Contact% - Percentage of times a batter makes contact with the ball when swinging at pitches thrown inside the strike zone (PITCHf/x)" If I had to guess, I'd say it does include foul balls.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Sep 5, 2013 -> 02:45 PM) Unless he turns into Vlad...then he can swing at whatever the hell he wants Exactly -- a ton of bombs But that's sort of the thing. Vlad swung at everything, but he also HIT everything. You know what his career K rate was? 10.9%! And even he walked at a career 8.1%. And that's because HIS zone contact rate was 89%, compared to Garcia's 70-something. Vlad was freak because he had a legendary hit tool. Garcia has like a 40 grade hit tool. Man, Vlad was cool as hell.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 5, 2013 -> 02:32 PM) If that is/was the case, it really is not better than Ozzie sabotoging 2011 to show KW's failure. Agreed

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 5, 2013 -> 02:26 PM) I know he's not still a Sox. Didn't write that correctly. He had to be the dumbest player alive thinking he was a power hitter. Also Erstad. Sox have had some really bad players. They ought to have Viciedo just have a drill where somebody pitches to him and he has to take every single pitch to learn how to draw a walk. He has so much talent and he still has not emerged as a threat. Yeah, maybe they could pull a page out of the Hawk Harrelson book and institute a fine for every swinging strike he takes above the letters. Or if the Player's Association won't allow the fine, they could get Ramon Troncoso to peg him with a water balloon every time. That would be doubly effective because then Robin wouldn't be tempted to use him since he won't be sitting in the bullpen!

QUOTE (Jose Paniagua @ Sep 5, 2013 -> 02:21 PM) I kind of took it like Kotsay was the rope that KW was happy to let Ozzie hang himself with. Maybe too black & white of a read on that, but Thome was slated to come back super cheap.......so the whole thing just seems to be missing certain elements. Ozzie publicly said his #1 request that year was to have Kotsay back. I dont know that he insisted Kotsay get an every day role, but he insisted that he at least come back (after having had a nice stretch after being traded from Sox to Sox months prior) That really was a completely boneheaded move. It was so dumb that there almost HAD to be some weird crap going on behind the scenes.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 5, 2013 -> 02:18 PM) No, we already have Gillaspie and Keppinger and Lillibridge, a skinny guy who decided it was best to be a power hitter. Sox have had a ton of bad players on the roster of late, not just Ozzies. Lillibridge is on like this third team since leaving the White Sox lol. But your point is true. He have Neifi Perez's except they are bad at defense too haha

QUOTE (Jake @ Sep 5, 2013 -> 01:43 PM) The 24-5 numbers are fine, by the way. That's what he is going to be. Right, generally speaking, it's pointless to will him into being anything but a high K/low BB guy, but you gotta hit a tons of bombs to make 24/5 work with a .300ish BABIP. And it's not because walks are good or K's are bad, but because they are by products of an approach. It's not that we want him to walk, it's that we want him to take bad pitches and swing at good ones.