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QUOTE (greg775 @ Sep 9, 2013 -> 06:15 PM) The problem is what kids are you talking about? I would think sample sizes are growing big enough to suggest DeAza and Tank are not good major leaguers. Ditto Beckham (hitting wise; great glove). Kepp is a disaster and Conor is not a major league caliber regular. He's a super sub type. Catcher is also a huge black hole; Paulie is about done and Dunn is Dunn. Blah. So I don't understand what our "core" is besides A. Garcia. Sox need to spend some money and make the RIGHT DECISIONS this time at several positions. We're going to need to trade 2 starters in our system as well to get an impact bat that way. Which 2? Better make the right call on that, Rick H. p.s. I am not TOTALLY against keeping DeAza and Tank but you have to admit there are huge ? marks regarding those 2 guys now. You're right we don't have much, but that's unfortunately why a couple free agents isn't enough to make it happen. It's a rough situation, but spending money in free agency not only won't solve it, but it'll but the solution off even further. This is the product of selling out the system and drafting poorly for several years -- it works out fine as long as all of your acquisitions keep working out, but if a few of them bomb at the same time, you can't do anything until the money clears. This is why so many of us feel like high draft picks and prospects are important, because we don't want to see ourselves in this position again. We want Hahn to bite the bullet and do this right so that we an be back to expecting our team to be competitive years after year. This stuff won't help much next year, you're right, but a couple expensive old FAs won't help enough to get us a winner, so we have no choice but to bide our time. We're going to have to eat it for a little while, but if we stay the course, it won't have to be for long. If we get all rash and impatient, we're most likely going to be frustratingly in the middle for a long time.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Sep 9, 2013 -> 05:48 PM) The problem is that free agency isn't what it used to be. Therefore, if there are guys out there this offseason that solve critical needs and may not break the bank, like possibly Abreu & McCann, you pretty much have to pursue them. Obviously you don't do anything stupid, but you don't pass on them because 2014 might be a transitional year. Otherwise, you may be waiting a long time before there's anything worth using your financial flexibility on. I agree with this 100%. I'm sorry, I thought I mentioned that already. Target any player, FA or not, that is properly or undervalued that will provide value beyond 2015.

QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Sep 9, 2013 -> 03:23 PM) Come on Marty look what the Red Sox did in one year. They went from zero to hero! Right but also look at what the Jays did. Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you don't. The Red Sox also already had a ton more talent than us. Pedroia, Ortiz, Ellsbury, Salty. Their offseason was about finding a new group of complementary pieces.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Sep 9, 2013 -> 03:19 PM) The Sox are going to lose 95+ games the time isn't now. Exactly. 2014 is a "transitional year." You go into it with the primary goal of seeing what you have. The kids get a chance to break out or fade away. Now you know what your core is, and you set to gradually improve each year going forward. It isn't splash time.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 9, 2013 -> 02:13 PM) There will be some lefties I want the Sox to consider, because I want nothing to do with Veal or Purcey as a significant piece. So hard to get relievers to work out in free agency though. Guys on deals like that of Lindstrom, if they are available, I'm all for. But nothing like a Joaquin Benoit contract.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 9, 2013 -> 02:26 PM) This is what I don't understand. If guys haven't clearly made themselves top 3 picks right now, why would next college or HS season be enough to say, yeah that guy is a future MLB star? It seems to be putting a heck of a lot of weight on 60 games, if that. Well, that's a LOT of time for guys that young though. I mean it's a whole season for them. The difference a year can make when you're 17 or 21 or whatever is huge. It's 60 games plus a winter of growing and working out. Plus there will be injuries. Rodon could tear his UCL or something, which would decrease the value of the first pick but increase the value of like the 5th pick because there'd be one less guy left. This year's class was supposed to be really bad, but then as it got closer, the media prospect guys, at least, were impressed with how it had improved over the couple months leading up to draft day. There's just a ton more volatility as you are talking about younger guys.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 9, 2013 -> 02:12 PM) Maybe not at the time they didn't seem meaningless, but as the season unfolded, they became meaningless. Isn't trying to see into the future what we all are trying to do? The standings now are meaningless, but playing well may not be meaningless. The Sox were awful in 2007. For quite a while they were in position to grab the #1 pick. They had a good September dropping them to 8th and they picked Beckham. I think there is only 1 player with a higher career WAR than Beckham picked before him and he wasn't picked top 3. And who knows what affect that September had on the next season when the Sox made the playoffs. Buster Posey was picked #5, by far the prize of that draft, and it wasn't signability. He signed for $50k more than Tim Beckham who was chosen #1. A couple of good hitters and this team is right back into it. Cleveland was horrid and added Swisher, Bourn, Reynolds. Reynolds is gone, Bourn hasn't hit much and Swisher's numbers haven't been what they normally are. If the Sox sign the correct guys, and a couple of their young bats take a step up, they should be OK next year. I just want them to play well. If they drop to 5th, a future All Star will be available. You may be right when we look back at the draft, that the top picks didn't matter. But for now, I want them to have as much flexibility as possible. We don't know how the class will shake out, there may be a clear top two, or top four, or whatever. The higher our pick, though, the better our chances. That's all it is. Like a few have said before -- if Ws are coming because of legitimate improvements in our core players, then that's fine, that's great. But if it's bad process producing good results, it won't last, and we're just losing one potential advantage for the future, however small it is. When I watch though, I never actually end up hoping for futility. I don't think my head can do that. But when the game is over and we lost, I feel just fine about it. Kinda like Jerksticks is saying, I think. I probably would be upset in retrospect though if I saw someone do something stupid and it worked out. At the end of the day, I just want our hitters to have a clue. If they can't get it, I want to replace them as fast as possible. Man, I've been watching other teams lately because the Sox are so ugly, and I gotta say, it makes me so envious to see how good teams are playing. Hitters just hitting, Watching the Sox all season has made hitting seem like a futile effort, but it really isn't for most of the league. Blech.

They're going to try to win in 2014. But if they are smart, they won't spend money on anyone that doesn't have substantial value for several years. YES: Abreu McCann (He moves very naturally to 1B/DH when Dunn goes. I'm assuming Konerko is done) NO: Morales Granderson Ellsbury (Injured literally every year, already 30, relies on speed) Cano (Will still be good, but will be overpaid quickly and substantially. Sox must seek surplus value. Plus Second basemen don;t usually age well) Every pitcher

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Sep 9, 2013 -> 01:29 PM) Yeah, but if they lost on Opening Day and more often the first week, it would have helped their draft position correct? So those wins were just as meaningless and hurtful to draft position now. If you are going to cuss Gillaspie for going deep now, you should be upset Flowers hit a game winning homer on Opening Day. The Sox were 1-9 this roadtrip. It's just obnoxious to me people were upset they won a game. Not upset because 1 out of 10 was embarrassing, but because 1 out of 10 was too much. The Sox have 19 games left. They are probably going to win at least 8 or 9 of them. Yeah, but on opening day they weren't meaningless. That's the distinction here. We hold out hope when there's hope to have, but when you're 25 games under 500 with like a month to go, the W column becomes meaningless. Even tomorrow I'm going to be holding out for hope on opening day, and probably well into June at the very very least. Hopiong for losses in September when you have the worst non-Astros record in the league is way different than what you're describing.

The Bears thing makes no sense to me at all. It's like week one, right? The Bears have a shot at contending. Making the playoffs is easier in football. They have a real chance at making the playoffs and therefore some chance of winning it all. The White Sox are 57-85 on September 9th, 24.5 GB of the division leader. The ship has sailed for this team.

QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Sep 9, 2013 -> 11:22 AM) Avi G is bad at defense? He sure has been so far. Have you watched him?

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Sep 9, 2013 -> 10:29 AM) I tend to agree with Balta on this - the pitching the Sox have going into 2014, and a few pitching prospects coming up, tell me a 3-4 year rebuild is not the way to go. If they can make one Big Splash (maybe Abreu for 1B, or some free agent), and improve at a couple spots in the lineup even a little... I think this team performs much differently next year. The defense is bizarre, after being so good last year, and I'd bet on it improving. There are young guys like Avisail Garcia and Marcus Semien that can provide some improvement and energy. That's before any offseason trades or signings. This isn't even to mention the fundamental aspect of the Sox fan base - unlike the Cubs fan base, they won't show up in droves for a horrific team. A long term rebuild is not workable for the Sox. The biggest issue is obviously finding the hitters. And this team does have significant money to play with. I think wite's point is that there's a difference between getting a guy like Abreu (who is 26 and comes with 6 years of control) and shelling up major dollars for newly post-prime guys that are only available because they are about to be overpaid or are injury prone. There's just a ton of downside because the latter guys are only going to be worth the money for the first couple years of the deal, and if anything goes wrong at all, you're now stuck with big bad contracts for years. I thin the Sox are 2-3 years from contention, but if they had signed free agents like that before, they'd be 5 years out like the Astros and Cubs were when they began this. I think we need to be patient and we'll be back sooner than we think.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 9, 2013 -> 09:33 AM) I won't pretend to know how WAR works and I hate to defend the Cubs but that stat is pretty surprising to me considering the Cubs have actually given up 10 less runs than the Sox....I know a lot of that has to do with guys like Axelrod, Troncoso, and Omogrosso who could easily be replaced by guys like Leesman, Petrika, and Webb or a free agent or 2. Still though that doesn't change the fact. Assuming he's referring to fWAR, the easy way to understand it is that it's assigning runs prevented based on DIPS (defense independent pitching statistics) theory. So it's purpose is to remove the influence of the defense behind the pitcher. When you consider how superbad the Sox defense has been, the disparity in runs scored versus fWAR actually makes a ton of sense. This is probably a really great example of when fWAR for pitchers is really helpful. Digression for the sake of explanation: In its current state, fWAR actually cuts a little too far for the sake of accuracy over completeness -- it is generally believed that DIPS actually deny pitchers credit for their ability to induce weak contact.

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Sep 9, 2013 -> 05:28 AM) While I would love for your scenario to play out, Cano will never accept such a short deal. Why risk free agency again when someone will offer him a 9 or 10 year deal?

Reed is our MVP, right guys?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 6, 2013 -> 12:30 PM) One thing worth adding to this conversation is that between Garcia's speed and inside out swing, there is precedent for him being able to sustain a BABIP substantially over .300. The guy who comes to my mind first with an inside out swing as a righty is Jeter, yeah it's not a perfect comparison but run with it for a moment. Jeter has over his career (12000 PA's) put up a .354 BABIP. Yeah it's not over .400 so it still has to come down, but Jeter is legendary for wearing pitchers out going the other way and we've seen some of that from Garcia so far. Add every caveat you want, needs to cut down on the K's, swing at better pitches, show more power, etc., but its definitely worth remembering that guys with speed who spray the ball all over the field are tough to defend and they get a lot of balls that just drop. It is a good and valid point -- but Jeter is an inner circle Hall of Famer with like a 70 hit tool. Some of that BABIP certainly comes with good speed, but a whole lot more comes with consistently solid contact. Garcia's BABIP is currently driven more buy weak, out of the zone contact.

To me, it's balls out for Abreu no matter what, go pretty hard on McCann IF Konerko retires, then dig around for guys that are are being underrated. Only sign anyone else if it's a shockingly low price. Then IF you get someone like Ellsbury at that price in addition to Abreu, only then do you look at signing guys like Pence under any condition. No situation exists where you sign Kendry Morales given the conditions.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 6, 2013 -> 03:20 PM) For what it's worth Bucket did mention this all hypothetically happens if they miss out on Abreu. Should that happen who's the guy everyone wants to replace PK(That's basically what they'd be doing)??? Morales is the name we always hear on here and if you look at the numbers Morales vs Pence they are almost exactly the same. Morales- .280/.336//443 18 HRs 72 RBI Pence - .283/.334/.461 18 HRs 72 RBI The difference between the 2 though is obviously speed which obviously breaks the tie. Then throw in the fact that Pence is great in the clubhouse(something I think this team needs) I'd rather have Pence over Morales if they can't snag Abreu. Couple things to consider: (1) Seattle has leaked that they are planning on giving Morales a QO, so signing him would lose us a draft pick., and (2) Morales is like one fo the worst baserunners in the history of baseball. He's actually graded out worse than Konerko over the past 5 years somehow. If Morales turns down QO from Seattle, and we sign him to a multiyear deal at anything close to what it would take to be more attractive than 1yr/$14m, it will be a very horrible move. I can;t see any situation where that would make sense.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 6, 2013 -> 03:07 PM) Would you do Santiago for him? I would.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...&position=C Not sure about sequencing at all, of course, but it's interesting that he actually takes fewer pitches in the zone than league average -- the trouble is that he makes much less contact on those pitches than average. He also swings at a ton more pitches out of the zone of course.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 6, 2013 -> 02:01 PM) Yep, players have a tendency to spike. You'd think if he were still using - considering the tests in the minors are just as hard, if not harder - he'd have an OPS better than .550. Guys get hot. The best thing to do would be to hope that he can pick it up and continue. This ^ It's much more likely that he just played way over his head for a bit and the Sox tried to catch lightning in a bottle than it is he has been on steroids. He was all but a lost cause before it, remember, so it makes sense the Sox would promote him to see if he could stay afloat. It's not like Flowers was making a case otherwise.

It's not about how long it'll take, it's about how there's nothing to gain from winning a bunch of games. Seriously, unless some of these hitters have epiphanies about their approaches, they're probably better off eating s*** all month so there's a chance they'll actually be open to changing next year. If Garcia keeps accidentally getting hits by swinging at garbage and it wins us some games, we're worse off all around. So I'll revise my position. If we get a s*** draft pick because our core players actually turn developmental corners, I'll be thrilled. Be if we lose position because Viciedo closes his eyes and runs into 5 or 6 off of some BS minor league roster expansion pitcher, it sucks for everyone.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 6, 2013 -> 01:31 PM) I have no problem upgrading from either of them. Thinking about those two just makes McCann sound like a better idea. I would hate it if he had to be a C the whole time, but assuming Konerko retires soon and Dunn walks after next year, signing McCann sound like a great move for 2015/2016 even. And the meatballs would be satisfied during 2014.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 6, 2013 -> 12:01 PM) At $13 mill a year, I'd have no problem with Pence either. He still has one of the ugliest swings I've ever seen in my life, but it's obviously pretty effective given that he hits the ball 5 miles At his best, he's basically good Alex Rios. He's a final piece to a competitive team, not a guy the White Sox bring in for 2014 unless they singed three other big free agents already. EDIT: yes, "singed." They literally need to set three other free agents on fire in order to make Pence a good idea. lol.

Ewwww Hunter Pence?