Eminor3rd

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 02:54 PM) Soler's name hasn't been mentioned recently in this discussion... How much better is this guy compared to him? 1) Soler was viewed as at least 2 but possibly 3 years away (versus those who felt Viciedo and Cespedes were within a year of the majors at the time/s they signed) 2) Soler was viewed as having HUGE power...40+ homers, etc. 3) Soler was never perceived as anything but a corner OFer/DH (possibly 1B, but not with Rizzo entrenched there) I think it's hard to compare them -- Soler is 21

QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 02:21 PM) A lot of the things I say on here come true. But only Dick Allen has pointed that out on occasion for me. As far as Dunn and Rios. Yes they are my whipping boys for this pathetic baseball team. And yes, Paulie's dropoff has hurt the team just as much. I guess I give Paulie more wiggle room because he had 4-5 really good years in a row. Dunn pretty much was the worst player in the history of mankind for a long long time in Sox uniform. What's the lowest he got that one year, .145, .150? You seem to think that our players can simply will themselves to good numbers.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 01:54 PM) I guess the Sox didn't get it either since they traded him away. They rather save the money and upgrade the minors and hope L. Garcia can develop in an area of need by the time Alexei's numbers go down furthur. That's all there is to get. Spending an extra $20M isn't money well spent on a rebuilding team, it's that simple. So I guess we both don't understand the others point. That extra $20M might come in handy for Abreu or others like him who pop up. I think that if they hadn't already cleared so much salary, it might be mroe valuable to get Dunn's off the books. However, since they are already way down -- the could afford giving $20m a year to a guy like Abreu if they wanted, not saying they should -- they might as well hold Dunn and wait for an opportunity to move him at higher value.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 01:44 PM) You simply can't compare Cespedes to Abreu. When Cesepedes was a FA, you could spend an unlimited amount on amateur players with no ramifications. You simply cannot do that anymore, so the market and money will be skewed towards international unrestricted free agents. Under the old rules, Abreu would probably get closer to the $42 mill or so Puig got. Now he's probably going to get $50-60 mill. This is an important point, too.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 12:22 PM) Everyone's saying Trout has a huge advantage over Puig because he's a natural CFer....well, Cespedes in CF and LF giving you production (and this year has been a down one compared to expectations, just like with Viciedo) is a lot more important than a 1B with only two tools. I don't see the argument that he's worth 50-75-100% more than Cespedes, honestly. It won't matter -- the only reason Cespedes and Puig made as little as they did was because there were legitimate concerns over how quickly they could be effective in the major leagues. Consensus at one point was that Cespedes would need up to a year in AA/AAA. Puig was considered a prospect, not a major leaguer. The fact that these guys have been able to contribute immediately makes Abreu -- the best bat of the three, if not the best overall player -- look like a MUCH safer bet than either of the other two were at the time. Teams will be bidding on Abreu as a potential impact free agent, not as a raw talent in need of player development.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 12:51 PM) Which one of them will play 2b? Teixeira

QUOTE (iamshack @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 10:03 AM) A lot of speculation that the Dodgers might really emerge as the favorites to sign Cano, too. Lol, their payroll is going to be like $300m

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 09:40 AM) I'd bet Arod. Ahhh yes, you are correct: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensa...w-york-yankees/

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 08:05 AM) $25 mill in 2014 $21 mill in 2015 $20 mill in 2016 $20 mill in 2017 Hamilton? What's crazy is that isn't even as bad as Ryan Howard: $20m in 2013 $25m in 2014 $25m in 2015 $25m in 2016 $25m option in 2017 ($10m buyout)

QUOTE (Jake @ Aug 13, 2013 -> 08:30 AM) Cespedes can get you wins on the basepaths and on defense, something this guy won't do. He has one tool - his bat - and it has to pan out or he's completely useless. Cespedes can have a down year at the plate (96 wRC+ this year) but still become a 2 WAR player (1.6 WAR so far, on track for 2.3/2.4 per Steamer/ZiPs) You're right, but Cespedes doesn't have anything like a 70 hit tool. Certainly, those scouting grades may not hold up when everyone gets a good look at him, but if he's really a 70 hit/70 power guy, he will have no problem touching 2 WAR even on bad years. If that guy is 26, you give him $10m per year without thinking about it -- especially nothing in the system to hold down first base. And especially when your offense is embarrassingly bad.

1) The Dunn comparisons don't really work, IMO. If scouts are dropping a 70 grade on the hit tool, he's a completely different player. Also, he's 26, not 31. 2) Unspectacular or not, Cespedes is TOTALLY worth 4/36. We're not talking about $20m per year here. I think some people are overestimating what $8-10m can really buy you in free agency. Abreu would only need to be a 2 WAR player to earn $10m per year.

QUOTE (Marty34 @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 05:30 PM) Market for Cuban players is overinflated, imo. Tread carefully. It's overinflated because the current CBA has made it so that unrestricted international free agency is the only way to spend money to acquire young, high-end talent. If $80m is the price to play at the table, then so be it. Hahn's hands are tied with regard to the money he has saved -- there are only so many elite scouts he can hire, and even picking at the top of the draft only gives him ~$10m of room there.

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 04:45 PM) Jake Peavy won a Cy Young in his prime, so that is not correct. And Mark Buehrle was no maestro himself, teams like the A's, Blue Jays, Twins, used to rough him up pretty good. Exactly -- Buehrle never touched 2007 Jake Peavy. I grant that prime Buerhle was probably better than this current version of Peavy after multiple major surgeries and a 5-7 mph velocity loss, but let's not get crazy.

It would be hard to believe that he won't get a ton of reps at SS, considering that his best chance to contribute is defensively. Semien is the best hitter of the trio, and if his bat is ready next year, he'll likely have a shot to contribute at 3B. That said, if the guy is going to be pegged as a defense guy, he could certainly maximize that value by being able to play multiple positions. Perhaps it COULD be a situation where he finds himself in a different one each night or week. Could be some major lineup-shuffling in Charlotte.

QUOTE (oldsox @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 03:40 PM) Dunn gets lots of good pitches to hit; he just misses most of them. You might be surprised to find out that his Z-Contact rate (contact rate on pitches in the strike zone) this year isn't far off from league average (82.5% vs. 87%), and that his Z-Swing (percentage of pitches he sees in the zone that he swings at) is almost exactly league average (65.1% vs. 65.4%).

QUOTE (bucket-of-suck @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 02:15 PM) Their chances are about the size of a bread basket.

QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 01:49 PM) Bowden has an ESPN Inside article on him. Among the highlights: And he calls the Marlins the favorites to sign him based on people he has talked to. In order: Marlins, Red Sox, Rangers, Mariners, A's, Nationals and Rockies. Take it for what it's worth. Like has been mentioned with Cespedes, Athletics came out of nowhere to sign him. 70/70 on the hit tools is like Miguel Cabrera. Were those his current grades or his ceilings?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 01:50 PM) The White Sox aren't even in the discussion? huh? Considering we just found out this morning that he's currently in Haiti, and may not be able to establish residency/free agency for months, I'd imagine this is all preliminary. I wouldn't worry too much at this stage

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 01:36 PM) If it takes a deal similar or slightly better than Puig's to get him, sign me up. He'll likely cost 50-100% more, sounds like.

QUOTE (bmags @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 12:07 PM) For those with knowledge of Cuban League baseball (or followed the defectors closer than I) - is it common for those top players to have featured the type of OBP that Abreu has? Should that signal he's more of a patient hitter than we are used to from Cuba, or is that line pretty typical for a top hitter in Cuba? I was wondering the same thing. Wish we could see Pitch F/X data to determine. However, I was listening to a podcast a week or so ago where someone asked Jason Parks why Latino-imported pitchers seem to always be relievers, and he said that they all tend to be very wild, hard throwers with noisy mechanics. Whether it had to do with player development philosophy or the fact that showcases tend to favor the loudest tools, he could not say. So that makes me wonder if the Cuban league just has a ton of high-walk pitchers, which might explain the high isolated patience for the top hitters. That said, even if the control is worse overall, the willingness to take those horrible pitches is still nice. I mean, Viciedo certainly never had it, for example.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 9, 2013 -> 11:28 PM) The stat nerds (I say it lovingly) will get on me for this I'm sure, but Jake Peavy has been eminently hittable in many many games, including tonight's. Mark Buehrle in his Sox prime was so so so much better than Jake Peavy! I'm not a Peavy hater. I loved his bulldogishness (the times he refuses to come out of games, et.all) but Jake is not a maestro. Guys have good nights and bad nights. Also, this is not prime Jake Peavy.

QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 11:43 AM) Puig's 7-year, $42 million deal is looking like a bargain. If we could get something similar for Abreu would make sense, especially a guy in his prime. Cubans are sort of becoming the next market efficiency. Abreu is so much more of a known quantity than Puig though, so he comes with less uncertainty. Puig was basically just a rumor when the bidding started on him. This guy is older and has been on an international stage for years. He'll definitely cost more.

QUOTE (The Ginger Kid @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 11:29 AM) I'd hate to see anyone block Andy Wilkins at this point, so a big no to this signing. lol

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 10:44 AM) Which is kind of funny considering this board's sentiment towards getting rid of both. Well, I think he means the fact that organization has been successful in acclimating Cuban defectors into the league before. It implies that the White Sox are aware of the challenges facing defectors and that they've been willing and able to support them.

QUOTE (bmags @ Aug 12, 2013 -> 09:53 AM) Right, however, we have been "in" on the talks for all of these. Going back even to when we offered fukodome more than the cubs. And last year going in for Soler. Indeed. Reasons to be hopeful.