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I don't mind your logic, but Ethier is really bad at this point. We'd be better of splurging in free agency.

QUOTE (Jake @ Aug 4, 2013 -> 01:47 PM) Just keep him. He makes the team more watchable and he isn't blocking anyone. He'll probably have a lot of value at next year's deadline when his contract isn't a problem. This ^ If the team was desperate to shed payroll, it would be different, but since they aren't -- he isn't going to bring a lot back so you might as well keep sending him out there.

Keppinger because who would trade for him?

QUOTE (fathom @ Aug 3, 2013 -> 08:45 PM) What this organization needs is more talent. Why not root for Hahn to have the best chance possible of acquiring the most talented players available?

QUOTE (Jake @ Aug 2, 2013 -> 03:11 PM) O-Contact is way up as is overall contact. "Much" less power is debatable. If he hits a homer today, his ISO is going to be pretty much identical. And this is without factoring in recent trends, in which we know he's been much better. O-Contact being up would be fine if his overall production was increasing, but since he's hitting worse than last year, I can't consider that fact that he's whiffing 3% less on bad pitches to be good while he's also swinging at bad pitches 2% more often.

QUOTE (Chisoxfn @ Aug 2, 2013 -> 01:10 PM) Viciedo has made major strides. I really can't call that a dissapointment. He was raw and the development he's made has been great and is positioning him to turn into a good offensive player. Now, if next year, he's still putting up numbers like this year, then its time to end the experiment. I disagree. Career high at swinging at pitches out of the zone, identical walk rate, much less power.

QUOTE (Jake @ Aug 2, 2013 -> 01:06 PM) You don't have to have a high BB rate or low K rate to have good enough pitch recognition. If a guy is hitting exceptionally well, all signs point to his pitch recognition being very good and his strategy simply being very aggressive In AAA, where he faces fringe talent with fringe stuff and fringe control. It goes beyond k/BB rates -- his career O-Swing in the majors is 41%. That's insanely high. When guys can locate sliders and advance scouts are telling them exactly where Avisail can't hit them, he will need to learn to lay off of them. Just ask Dayan Viciedo.

QUOTE (oldsox @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 07:37 AM) I still don't see why you guys have Hawkins rated so high. Not even close to top 10 IMO. Fast forward to one year from now.....If he has similar numbers then, will you still rank him in Top Ten? Not me. lol wat

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Aug 2, 2013 -> 09:54 AM) The question is one of ceiling. Is there room for Semien to get better and be able to be a major leaguer? A lot of guys can hit at AA, but that doesn't mean they have any chance of hitting major league pitching. This is true as well. Semien is succeeding with a very advanced approach, which means what he's doing now essentially needs to play all the way up the ladder. If he hits a ceiling and struggles, there's not a whole lot they can teach him to make the most of his skills. I agree on Garcia -- I'm extremely skeptical that he can learn to recognize pitches well enough to be good, but there's no denying he has a high ceiling, because he's managed to become a monster at AAA solely on his tools and a tee ball-level hitting approach. He's high on the lists because people are imagining what he could do if he could learn to be a professional hitter.

QUOTE (Palehosefan @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 10:54 PM) I'm a little surprised nobody has Semien as our #1. He gets better at each level and is seemingly a five tool player. Garcia's lack of walks really temper my high hopes for him. He's still doing great in AAA at barely 22, I just don't know sustainable it is in his future. I think people are just waiting for the other shoe to drop on Semien. When you break out, you get attention, but then you have to sustain ti a bit to show it is for real. He'll be higher in lists going into next year, and then if he continues to rake, people will be talking about him as #1.

QUOTE (oldsox @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 10:28 PM) Stupid, insane, and ludicrous.....I can think of a couple of Sox prospects who, in my opinion, have a better chance of reaching the majors than does Hawkins, and they don't show up on anyone's list. But that's just me. When I see a young player constantly improving, I see a good prospect. Hawkins is doing the opposite, and I don't know why. He's the youngest guy at his level. He is there because he murdered his age appropriate level. You push a guy up until he struggles, then you work with him to fix it. That's how it works. If he was mashing rookie ball again this year, he'd be wasting his time building habits that won't play at a higher level. If he repeats the level next year and looks the same, then it's time to worry, but you're off-base in your expectations of the player development process if you are knocking Hawkins right now based on nothing but his numbers.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 2, 2013 -> 10:32 AM) To clarify, as fathom said, I was NOT saying that lineup I posted was a contender. I said that lineup with 2 significant upgrades could be decent. And as Jake pointed out, returns on any trade in the offseason MIGHT have an effect too. 1. I didn't put those starters in any particular order, should have clarified. 2. Santiago has a ton of talent and is just as likely to start as Johnson, in my view. But he's less consistent, and I am guessing (just my guess) that they may trade one of him or Quintana. And in that case, I'd prefer they trade Santiago. The whole purpose of showing that roster, if you had read my post, was what was there PRIOR to any acquisitions. it is a baseline, then you improve it from there, as noted. Sorry, I must have just skimmed it and missed the part where you mentioned 'upgrades'

QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 2, 2013 -> 02:03 AM) It's too late now. The Sox just did nothing but lose, lose, lose. No changes. I meant a figurehead coach like Brett/Thomas if Sox weren't going to fire Robin. BTW. Why does nobody criticize Manto this year? Walker was basically ripped on a daily basis. There was a pretty lengthy argument about him in yesterday's game thread.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 04:45 PM) If the Sox can dump Rios, either in August or in the offseason... maybe Lindstrom too, maybe Alexei, for argument's sake... your roster would look something like the below, if you look ONLY at players under contract or already in-house: C: Phegley 1B: Wilkins 2B: Beckham SS: Semien or Sanchez 3B: Gillaspie OF: Viciedo OF: Garcia OF: De Aza DH: Dunn Bench... C: Flowers INF: Sanchez or Semien, maybe, or someone else cheap OF: JorDanks or whomever ??: ? Rotation... Sale Quintana Johnson Danks Rienzo or Santiago Bullpen... Reed (CL) Jones Webb Castro Axelrod Veal Santiago or Rienzo Lots of big question marks there, but also a very young roster with some very nice talent, and... only about $45M plus arb salaries to deal with. That might make it $55M. The opening day payroll this season was something like $104M. The team gets an extra $25M in TV money. Even if they decide to cut payroll a bit, despite the new money, they've probably still got $30M-$40M to play with to add to the above roster. I absolutely would not write off contending next year. That is a pretty damn good rotation (though lefty-heavy), that is a bullpen with some untested but talented arms, and even the lineup has young talent. But if you use that $30-$40M to get above average hitters (hopefully with some power) for a couple positions (and you could do it at almost ALL those positions, though 1B and 3B stick out)... you can make a decent lineup there. Just saying, I don't consider 2014 a full-on write-off... yet. Have to see how the offseason goes. Stranger things have happened, but that lineup doesn't even look remotely like a contender to me

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 06:19 PM) If Alexei is still around next season, I'd rather have Semien starting at 3b than Gillaspie. I disagree. If Alexei is around, he won't be around much longer. Semien is one of those borderline SS types, I'd rather him get consistent reps there in AA/AAA to maximize his chance of staying when Ramirez is gone.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 04:45 PM) I absolutely would not write off contending next year. That is a pretty damn good rotation (though lefty-heavy), that is a bullpen with some untested but talented arms, and even the lineup has young talent. But if you use that $30-$40M to get above average hitters (hopefully with some power) for a couple positions (and you could do it at almost ALL those positions, though 1B and 3B stick out)... you can make a decent lineup there.

QUOTE (bbilek1 @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 04:44 PM) I'd like someone to show DA's or my argument wrong about the draft. You can't. There is no consistent correlation between losing and having a productive farm. A week ago when we were speculating about which teams we wanted to trade with because of their great farms who did we turn to? The Rangers (they have a couple pennants and have been competitive for 5 years or so), the Cardinals (who have been winning for years) and the D-Backs (usually middle of the pack). Why are those teams so successful without drafting in the top ten? Better player development, traditionally massive international signing budgets, and hits on veterans-for-prospects trades. In other words, excellent work in areas related to farm systems.

Yeah, kind of crazy, but I see no place where we should add a veteran to the lineup via free agency now that we have Garcia. Rios needs to move for him, and there's no point in clogging DH if we manage to move Dunn. We might find ourselves needing a bullpen piece or something.

QUOTE (pettie4sox @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 03:56 PM) Last year was a fluke. There isn't any other way to describe it. You mean other than "this year is a fluke?"

QUOTE (flavum @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 03:35 PM) 10 months away, I don't see how anyone could know who is going to be a consensus number 1 or 2. Rodon is the college pitcher with the most buzz, but who knows what will happen in the next 10 months of amateur baseball. It's going to be nice to have options, but I hope there is an obvious pick that can't be debated for decades. This ^ Everything changes a ton during/after the college and high schools baseball seasons leading up to the draft.

QUOTE (Jake @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 03:09 PM) Someone in FutureSox said they see Andy Wilkins potentially being a 2-2.5 WAR player. Do you know how much better we would be if we had a 2-2.5 WAR player at first right now?? About 2 to 3 wins better?

QUOTE (Jake @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 02:45 PM) He got a broken version of Adam. He has turned Adam into our best hitter this season and a key contributor last season and the second best hitter on the team if you combine the last two seasons. I guess I'm just not sure that Manto is what "turned" Dunn into our best hitter. I would be more inclined to believe that were it not for that whole "get more aggressive" experiment we had in April that was a total disaster. Dunn got productive when he went back to being his old self.

QUOTE (Jake @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 02:40 PM) The 2005 White Sox were 17th in MLB in wRC+. This year's team is 29th. We were 8th in 2004. We are currently 28th in UBR (ultimate baserunning, which assesses the amount runs earned/given up on the bases via speed, stolen bases, blunders, etc). We were 12th in 2005. 16th in 2004. The 2005 club led baseball in pitching WAR. We are third in baseball this year. We were 17th in 2004. In 2005, we were 8th in team UZR. This year, we're 23rd (worth mentioning we were 10th last year, so there is a reason to believe we can field a decent fielding club). 5th in 2004. We have the pitching it takes to win a WS. We don't have the position players. The players who have cost us most defensively, per UZR: Dunn, De Aza, Viciedo, Konerko, Keppinger, Beckham. As you make Dunn your DH and eventually get rid of him, we should improve defense at that position. Konerko also gone. Crazy that we've given away well over twice as many runs with 1st baseman defense than any other position, relative to the average defenders at those positions. I think De Aza has had a weird season and we can reasonably assume he improves defensively, since he has been an average centerfielder throughout the rest of his career. Viciedo was better last year as well and I think he will continue to just be a slightly negative LF. Keppinger is not going to continue to play much second base for us, where he's cost us the most runs. Beckham has never been looked upon kindly by UZR, but his poor defensive play when he came off the DL has dropped it much lower than normal. I'd expect that to pick back up. Worst baserunners, per UBR: Konerko, Keppinger, Dunn, Flowers This entire stat is weighed down by PK, who's had one of the worst UBR seasons I've ever seen. Keppinger is well below career norms, not that anyone here would shed a tear if he were moved. Dunn is slow. Flowers won't be running the bases for us much in the future. Worst hitters, per wRC+: Keppinger, Phegley, Gimenez, Flowers, Ramirez, Konerko Keppinger's season has been really dreadful. The Phegley/Gimenez/Flowers trio has been really bad and Flowers has been the best of the bunch. I think we're all hopeful and somewhat confident that Phegley eventually outproduces all of them and maybe by a great deal. Let's hope. Alexei is Alexei - his offense among shortstops isn't all that bad, 17th out of 26 SS w/ 250 PA's and is of course leading our team in WAR on the strength of his defense. Paulie sucks, I think you see a theme here. I think as we break it down, we see where to seek improvement. We need to get Dunn off first base where his defense is nearly canceling out his offense. We need Paulie to retire. Keppinger has to either be his old self, go, or ride the pine. We need production out of the catching position. Those are the most efficient places to improve the team. Unfortunately, our top prospect plays the same position as the guy tied for the lead on our team in WAR. This is why you can't simply dump Rios, you need to try to move Rios' production to another position(s). Avisail can be pretty good in RF and it won't improve our team because we have to subtract our best player to get Avisail out there. Nice post

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 02:15 PM) One thing worth thinking about though is that "No plan at the plate" is a mental issue that can be changed with coaching. A guy can develop a plan at the plate. Paul Konerko dramatically improved his plan at the plate with time. "No plan at the plate" is being stated there like it's a genetic issue, like one of his arms is 30 centimeters shorter than the other one. You are right. However, I think that poor plate discipline can be either "no plan at the plate" or "cannot recognize pitches fast enough." The former is coachable, the latter may not be. I personally struggle to be able to tell which one it is when watching guys on TV. Presumably, the coaching staff has a way better idea of this from talking to the players and seeing them practice, but if they think they are getting guys that can be coached out of their hackiness, it sure doesn't seem to be working

QUOTE (greg775 @ Aug 1, 2013 -> 02:15 PM) There's also a great future Sox board which I rarely check. Some fans (the baseball draft is a snoozefest IMO) don't see much difference between the first pick and the third or fourth. I'm tired of the jokes about getting the No. 1 pick like you guys are of me blasting Rios.To want the team to lose and to mention the season ending series with Houston like it's a big deal is pretty strange to me. I care about the games in August and September not the draft. Even Strasburg, the great American hero, has been human. No one pick is going to excite me that much. You're right greg, maybe everyone here should try to post what you want to read.