Eminor3rd

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 02:18 PM) So if you look at his advanced numbers, and his outdated OPS numbers, even with all his strikeouts, and all his home runs, Adam Dunn in each circumstance comes out at about an average to slightly better than average DH. Teams don't pay those guys $15 million a year if they have a choice, let alone give you something of value for the opportunity. Agreed. Adam Dunn probably only has value to someone if the Sox pick up substantial money. A team with a really bad 1B or DH would, for example, probably be willing to pay an Adam Dunn $7m or so.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 02:11 PM) I don't like picnics, I want to have pool party Sounds like someone needs to start a poll thread!

QUOTE (hammerhead johnson @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 02:01 PM) You know that Eminor is gonna blow a gasket if you keep quoting these primitive OBP and SLG numbers, correct? Haha I'm not going to blow a gasket, I'm just frustrated because there's so much disagreement on Dunn's production because he's so good at some things and so bad at others. The arguments are really good and important ones, except that someone already came up with a way to settle them and I want people to know that they are available so we can all agree and have a picnic together in the parking lot at USCF

QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 01:59 PM) What was his wRC+ last year? http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playe...;position=1B/OF 115, average DH was 113.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 01:45 PM) Yes, and the difference between OPS and the more advanced saber-stats is that while OPS does not tell the whole story, it's still a rate stat easy to compute and understand, along the same vein as AVG. I'm still a little bit leery of using stuff like WAR and RC, because once you start making adjustments for things like park factor and such, you are introducing some margin of error. Then wOBA is just for you! No league or park adjustment, just straight linear weights calculated from run environment.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 01:35 PM) But at least for now, we're mentally calibrated on OPS. I know what a .900 OPS hitter is doing, I know what an .800 OPS hitter is doing, I know what a .700 hitter is doing, I know what a .600 OPS hitter was doing. When I quote those numbers, everyone knows roughly what that hitter is doing without me defining the standard. If you post RC+, great, but you have to calibrate me in the same post, I'm just not set on it yet. Fair criticism! For wRC+, league average is always set to 100, and each point represents a 1% deviation. So, Adam Dunn's wRC+ is currently 110, meaning he is hitting 10% better than league average. Shockingly, 2013 DH's are averaging a just 107 wRC+ so far. This number is park-adjusted. wOBA works more like slash stats. It is scaled to be roughly equal to OBP, so if you're trying to judge a good or bad wOBA, ask yourself how you'd judge it if it was OBP. Adam Dunn's wOBA this year is .339, which you can compare directly to other players without the context of league average or park adjustment or whatever.

OPS drives me nuts more than AVG. Because if you quote OPS you're "trying" to be "more advanced" while using a stat that the sabermetric community abandoned as obsolete like 10 years ago. I've said it many times before, and I'll say it again: wOBA and wRC+ weigh everything a player does at the plate with precise values that correspond directly to the amount of runs each adds or subtracts in today's run environment. They are the perfect numbers for settling this debate over whether or not Adam Dunn is good because homers or bad because strikeouts. Use these numbers that tell you mathematically which of them has a larger affect on his value! When John Thorn invented OPS like 500 years ago he immediately pointed out that it was flawed because it doesn't properly weigh the difference between avoiding outs and moving runners. wOBA and wRC+ do! And wRC+ is even park and league-adjusted.

QUOTE (mike65 @ Jul 17, 2013 -> 10:22 AM) As a Cardinal fan, I hope you are correct. I would love for the Cardinals to get Ramirez but I don't even get the sense that it is being discussed. I have seen some rumors about Asdrubal Cabrera but none connecting Ramirez and the Cardinals. As to your second point, any trade this time of year will be somewhat costly. If the Cardinals and White Sox do ever trade, the cost will be partially determined by how much of the Ramirez salary the Cardinals are willing to assume. The Asdrubal Cabrera thing is confusing to me because the Indians are totally in contention right now. But yeah, I hear people talking about it too.

He threw two scoreless innings. Everyone else threw one scoreless inning each. It's not like some huge snub or anything -- two really nice plays by Miguel Cabrera of all people as well saved a couple hits.

He's got the "playoff hero" thing going for him though

While I don't think there's any chance at signing Choo at all, I think the idea of signing short-term deals on reclamation projects is precisely the route the Sox should take in 2014. It's essentially a shot in the dark at contending without hampering the 2015 plans.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jul 16, 2013 -> 02:36 PM) I like Trevor Story an awful lot. Don't think he can be had for Crain though. I don't know -- I think it's a possibility. Story, I believe, has taken a step back this year, and there's no doubt he's blocked by Tulo/Rutledge.

QUOTE (Jake @ Jul 16, 2013 -> 03:06 PM) If I'm buying, I'd much rather have Peavy than Garza. Both for this season and when you factor in the contracts. Two different tiers of pitcher IMO. I agree and I would be willing to bet that most teams do as well. I just don't think anyone considers Peavy a real option until he returns healthy,

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 16, 2013 -> 02:15 PM) Great post. That's all I want. Fans to blame Robin some. I like Robin. I have no problem with him continuing as manager. But his staff has failed miserably this season. That's OK. I don't want him to be fired. I'm just laughing because if the former manager had orchestrated this first half ... wow, he'd be run out of town. This team looks like it is managed by Andy the Clown, God rest Andy's soul. The big difference that you are not mentioning, Greg, is that Ozzie was a total cancer to the clubhouse and front office. He was making headlines with controversial remarks about the players and the administration on a regular basis, and dividing the roster into favored and unfavored camps. When players were asked about his antics, they consistently replied cautiously with veiled non-answers that clearly implied that he was a distraction. Absolutely NONE of this is true about RV. I'm not saying that RV is awesome, but he is doing nothing to suggest that he is a negative force on this bad team. I'm not trying to suggest that RV deserves none of the blame -- he is, after all, a part of this team. But I can't point to anything that suggests he is a bigger part of the failure than any starting player, and that was just not true about Ozzie.

QUOTE (fathom @ Jul 16, 2013 -> 02:54 PM) I can't imagine them doing that. It sounds like Cubs are trying to get Neftali Feliz instead (Tom Loxas reporting). If they get Feliz and Olt for Garza, that's an amazing trade for the Cubs. Since when is Garza this great pitcher?? No way they get both of those guys -- but while Garza is not a great pitcher, he's the best guy available right now by a fair amount. Supply & demand. This is why we need Peavy to 2-hit the #Barves this weekend.

I predict Alexei ends up with the Cardinals and we get next to nothing back. Just a feeling.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jul 16, 2013 -> 01:31 PM) I think Olt ends up going to the Cubs as part of the package for Garza. I don't think Olt is a good fit there -- they've got Baez and Bryant as long-term 3B guys, and Rizzo locked up at first. Can't have too much depth, sure, but I'd think they would prefer a different type of guy.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jul 16, 2013 -> 01:19 PM) Yeah, Olt's stock has fallen, for sure, but that just serves to make him plausibly attainable for us. He's always been overrated, but he profiles as a solid contributor on both sides of the ball for years to come. Tim Dierkes of MLBTR agrees with me. P.S. which on of you asked this question, lol?

QUOTE (danman31 @ Jul 15, 2013 -> 09:54 PM) Are we thinking of the same player? Barnum is another high power, low contact hitter for now. I went back and read some of the online scouting reports, and you're right -- I'm not sure why I had the impression that his hit tool was better than the rest of our guys.

QUOTE (bbilek1 @ Jul 16, 2013 -> 01:19 PM) Dunn supplanting Pacheco in Colorado could make sense if the Rockies are going to try to make a run for it. I don't think they are though. Dunn at Coors Field... It would make sense, but I think their focus is justifiably almost completely on pitching first.

Yeah, Olt's stock has fallen, for sure, but that just serves to make him plausibly attainable for us. He's always been overrated, but he profiles as a solid contributor on both sides of the ball for years to come.

QUOTE (NorthSideSox72 @ Jul 16, 2013 -> 12:03 PM) Robin definitely deserves plenty of blame. But with 2012 and 2013 being such divergent stories, I don't think we'll really know who he is as a manager until he plays out at least part of 2014, when he will inevitably have a very different roster. How can you say that definitively? I'm not trying to challenge you, I just want to know what people are looking at when they are deciding that RV is the reason this team is losing. Because to me, it's because they suck at hitting and defense. Is RV not requiring them to practice hitting and defense? If that's the case, then sure, but otherwise, I think the players are just f***ing sucking. All his pitching change problems combined don't add up to be nearly the problem than the team offense right now.

QUOTE (IowaSoxFan @ Jul 16, 2013 -> 08:46 AM) I could see a package of Reed and Ramirez for Pederson, Dee Gordon, and Onelki Garcia. Lets the Dodgers move Hanley to 3B and put Uribe in a UT role, and gets them the upgrade to Brandon League that they really need. Gordon can plug in to SS for the rest of the season and let him try to get things figured out. Oh man, Dee Gordon is so bad. That would be a really bad trade for us if Reed is included.

QUOTE (Dunt @ Jul 15, 2013 -> 09:35 PM) I mean, they need pitching and don't need Joc Peterson right? Definitely a possibility for Peavy if he proves his health, but much less so since they picked up Nolasco.

QUOTE (beck72 @ Jul 16, 2013 -> 06:39 AM) In the comments section of that article, a fan suggested SS Sardinas, OFer Lewis Brinson, and RHP Neil Ramirez for Pence or Soriano. If they were to offer that for Rios, that would be a nice return. They are the #2, 12, and 14 prospects for Texas. I'd really like Sardinas in a Rios trade. Just heard Jason Parks talk at length about Sardinas on a BP podcast the other day. Says he thinks he has better tools than Profar, but doesn't have close to the work ethic or desire. Could be a monster or a bust (but the same could be said for lots of players). Anyway, yeah that's be a fantastic return, just commenting generally on something I heard.