Eminor3rd

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 9, 2013 -> 03:15 PM) This is now very debatable with his big slump lately. A rebound over the next couple weeks would help, but realistically, teams need to be making these decisions now, so a rebound in August or September isn't likely to matter. They've got to rely on their scouts and the season average to evaluate his talent going forward. They know that slumps are slumps, I think. If he has better year next year, maybe his value is higher if the market conditions are better. OF is pretty thin right now, though.

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Jul 9, 2013 -> 03:07 PM) I just don't see us or get the point of us trading Rios. The point is simple: his value will never be higher and the team is currently among the worst 5 in baseball. Nearly all of the big contracts for this current 34-52 team expire over the next year or two, giving the franchise a great opportunity for a fresh start in 2015 if they use the next season and a half to collect core-type, cost-controlled talent to develop or trade later. What is the point of KEEPING Rios?

QUOTE (GreatScott82 @ Jul 9, 2013 -> 02:57 PM) Pittsburgh has been saving up $$ for years, letting free agents walk year by year for the past 20+ seasons. Recently over the past 5 years or so they have been drafting really well and now their patience is FINALLY paying off. I'd say if there is ever time where the Pirates goes for it and spends a little cash along the way, that time is now. What a year they are having! I actually would NOT be surprised if they make a deal for Rios. He would make an excellent addition for 1.5 seasons at a relatively expensive salary, but one they can afford nonetheless. That's the key, I think -- Rios presents the perfect balance between value and affordability. Stanton would be a megadeal that presents a huge risk to the current and future of the organization. Schierholtz could be had for a song, but would the upgrade really be enough to push them over the top? Rios sits right in the middle and they could deal from organizational depth to get him, giving them both a substantial upgrade over their black hole in RF and still leaving them with a system stocked with high end talent.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 9, 2013 -> 02:45 PM) They should send Ramirez and Rios to the Pirates (along with money) and get back the prospects they really want. Likelihood of that happening? 10%? Depends what you mean by "the prospects they really want." I'm sure they "really want" Jameson Taillon, for example.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 9, 2013 -> 02:42 PM) Allie has been quite the story thus far. Total White Sox prospect at this point too. So long as he doesn't constitute too much of the value - as a final piece or throw-in or whatever you want to call that player in a trade - I'd love to add him to the organization. Definitely. It's just my own speculation, but the stuff I've read on his transition have seemed a little like forced enthusiasm, more like "oh wow, we thought this was going to be a disaster but it's turning out much better than expected" more than "he's a legitimately awesome hitting prospect." I agree that I wouldn't be happy if he was the centerpiece, but I think he could be a legit #2 piece. Something like Hanson, Allie, live arm, live arm would seem to be toward the high end of a reasonable get, and would look really good for both teams, I think.

It'd be nuts for the Royals to buy on a guy like Rios, but if Moore is desperate for his job, stranger things have happened, I guess.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jul 9, 2013 -> 02:11 PM) I don't think they want to pay up for Stanton. Pirates do have the lowest RF .ops in the National League though. There system is very deep. I don't think that they want to deal their top guys. Cole, Taillon, OF Gregory Polanco, and probably not even Luis Heredia RHP. I really like SS Alen Hanson. He's a top 50 prospect in baseball. They also have Josh Bell. Bell was highly regarded and a very tough sign out of HS. With a future OF of Polanco, McCutchen, and Marte, Bell is expendable but I am not sure if they'd give him for Rios. Sox were also supposedly high on Texas Tech OF Barrett Barnes last year in the draft and Pirates have him as well. If the Sox could get Jose Tabata and Hanson I would make the trade in a second. I am just not sure how much Pittsburgh wants to deal. I agree with you. Hanson has seen his stock slip a bit, if I'm not mistaken, so he could be very attainable. It's too bad there aren't more teams involved in the bidding, because Polanco would be an incredible get that is an overpay but not so much of one that the Pirates couldn't be driven to do it if they had to. As it is, I'd think Stetson Allie might be a possibility in a Rios deal. I used to love Tabata, but I think I'm off that bandwagon -- and we have a ton of OF coming up, so a placeholder isn't all that attractive. I'd rather just give Tekotte/Danks more ABs and get a second decent prospect if it comes to that.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 9, 2013 -> 01:32 PM) They have the talent to make a run at the real top guy on the market, Giancarlo Stanton, if they wanted to go for the grand slam. True, although all reports have pointed to Stanton not being moved until the offseason. You never know, of course, but it seems that will most likely be the case. Also, they could get Rios without giving up Taillon/Cole, which I think they will be very inclined to do.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jul 9, 2013 -> 12:54 PM) Not sure if anyone saw this tweet from Scot Gregor last night but it mentions that Pirates scout was in the house. He was speculating that it could be for Rios but I think it could also be for bullpen help or Ramirez. Scot Gregor ‏@scotgregor 17h Pirates have a scout here tonight, and don't think he's looking for pitching. #rios Pittsburgh is the most obvious fit. Fairly deep in decent position player talent on the farm, too. Would imagine they'd want some cash thrown in but this is really a perfect match.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 9, 2013 -> 12:38 PM) Jose Fernandez far and away is their best pitcher... This thread only proves there is really no good options that 1) aren't too expensive, like Choo or Ellsbury, 2) are capable of hitting both lefties and rights, and 3) aren't too old. Agreed

Johan Cruz!

QUOTE (LittleHurt05 @ Jul 9, 2013 -> 08:13 AM) One season with an OPS+ over 100. I stick by my post. If you're going to go with OPS+, you might as well go all the way. He had 16 WAR over 9 seasons -- basically a league average player. Kozma over 399 PA? 1.8 WAR. That's basically the same thing, except of course, that he hasn't even tallied 600 PA in his career.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 8, 2013 -> 08:11 AM) Phegley looks good. Of course 3 or 4 games into this season, Flowers looked like an all star. Hopefully, Phegley can keep Flowers glued to the bench. Yeah. I mean he's proven that he can barrel up first pitch fastballs over the center of the plate. I can't hold my breath until I see him hit when pitchers have a better plan for him. Not trying to be cynical.

I don't see Johnson as a top 50. I think he belongs in the top 100 next year though, if he maintains this performance.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 9, 2013 -> 09:15 AM) Honestly, from that list...Ellsbury is too expensive and a pipe dream, Pence would be a good veteran leader for our team and role model (but why would a SF Giant want to play on a rebuilding team except for money, and that's not Hunter Pence from everything I've read)... McLouth is not someone you want to invest millions in. Cruz has the PED's allegations hanging over his head. The Cardinals are amazingly adept at knowing who to keep and who to jettison, and WHEN. If they let Beltran walk, there's a very good reason, and signing him to the type of money some big market teams will be able to throw at him, at his age, is foolhardy at best. Granderson and Pence are the ones who are making the most sense so far. Choo will also be way out of our price range. Honestly, if you combine our minor and major league operations, we're the WORST franchise in MLB right now....who would want to jump into that situation as a FA? 1. Granderson and Pence? Granderson is old, injury prone, bad defensively, and strikes out 25% of the time. Pence is a no-patience hack with a 6% walk rate and .309 OBP -- which is precisely what this team does not need. 2. Unquestionably, as you just defined it, the Marlins have to be the worst franchise in baseball. Especially now that they just gave away their best pitcher for salary relief despite already having a $30m payroll.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Jul 8, 2013 -> 05:26 PM) Not many busts hit 25 homers and drove in 80 last year. SOX are way, way, way better off keeping Tank around for another year before giving up on him. Despite those two cherry-picked numbers, his total offensive output amounted to 97 wRC+ last year -- making him a slightly below average hitter. I don't think he's a bust yet, but he sure sucks right now.

Basically, Parks really likes him, saw him at a DR showcase. Thinks he is already a top five talent in our system, thinks his hit tool is good enough that has a chance to be "more than an all or nothing power threat"

I think he's gotta be 10-20 until we can at least see SOMETHING from him. I'd typically like to leave him off altogether except that he's a showcase guy that a ton of media guys saw and they've universally been impressed.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 8, 2013 -> 04:29 PM) Rios is only one I know where it almost came to blows. And Frank Thomas

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 8, 2013 -> 04:26 PM) You could say its a fallacy, we will only truly know if he gets traded. Scouts reporting lack of effort and a big slump especially since neither are new and could last a while, doesn't help Hahn if he really wants to move him. I'm just saying it's a fallacy to compare then and now because there are an entirely different set of circumstances -- different GMs, teams, playoff rules, economic conditions, etc. You could be right that his trade value is low, but whatever it ends up looking like, it doesn't have anything to do with his trade value in 2009.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 8, 2013 -> 12:46 PM) When Rios came to the Sox, he was basically having the same year in Toronto that he is having now, and all the Blue Jays got for him was salary relief. The question will be do the Sox want to pay him to play here the rest of this year or next, because the return probably isn't going to be a highly rated prospect. This is a fallacy -- there are dozens of variables that are different now than back then. The two biggest are (1) the risk -- regardless of age, he is signed for 1.5 years with a team option now versus 5.5 before, and (2) the market -- he's the best OF available in a very thin market where there are more contenders and fewer sellers than ever before thanks to the second wild card.

I agree, DFA. Team sucks, less reason than ever to have Wise take Jordan Danks' role.

Rainout?

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 5, 2013 -> 01:01 PM) Of course, there was also a 1.5 month period where Adam Dunn was trying to listen to the people who say "oh if only he'd try to swing earlier in the count, make more contact, and go the other way" and was abjectly terrible as a direct consequence. That is also impacting his runs created right now as well. Definitely. If you think his current streak is closer to average than hot, then that number will continue to rise in the coming weeks. Also, ML scouts will make the same determination.

We don't have to argue about whether or not the homers and RBIs make up for the strikeouts and low OBP and whatever -- that's why wOBA and wRC+ exist. wRC+ is park adjusted and league adjusted, and scaled so that league average is 100. This year, Adam Dunn currently has a 109 wRC+, which means when you add up all the good and all the bad, he's producing 9% better than a league average hitter. That is definitely something of value, but much worse than a typical AL 1B/DH. He could be very valuable to a contender that has a black hole at 1B or DH, but he isn't good enough to replace a decent player there.