Eminor3rd

Is this streaming anywhere?

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Mar 14, 2013 -> 02:23 PM) Hosmer's going to have to put up a sub 700 OPS 2013 for anyone to give up on that talent....especially with his plate discipline. Even then, guys like Carlos Pena have hung around and finally matured. Or, on his own team, Alex Gordon. Agreed -- but these numbers are based on a blend from projections systems like ZiPS, only the playing time is subjective. So it's not like this is the result of some writer drooling on Hosmer or Rizzo's upside. So, not arguing with you, just interesting that the systems aren't just blindly assuming improvement from young guys. Well, maybe they are on Rizzo.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Mar 14, 2013 -> 01:43 PM) Lol at the Cubs being #5. I think Rizzo will be a very good player, but I expect some more growing pains, at least in 2013. I thought the same thing -- though I think it's as much a product of first base being relatively weak league-wide at the moment.

Bump for the addition of first basemen. I expected us to be a touch higher than #12, but I can admit that I probably overrate Paulie. However, it is very interesting to note that we're substantially higher than KC and CLE.

I think it'll also be interesting to see how Baseball Prospectus rates his pitch framing over a full season. They tend to make seemingly wild claims about how many wins a C can add through good pitch framing, and though they are the only ones that seem to believe in the totals, it stands to reason that they are at least finding a way to rank that component of C defense, even if they overstate the case.

This catcher ranking is surprisingly high to me -- I figured we'd be more like #25 or so. But the good news is that these are based on projection systems rather than opinion, so I'd say that is pretty solid for ol' T Flow.

For the second year, FanGraphs is previewing teams by ranking them at each position. I thought it would be fun and appropriate to post the White Sox sections in a single thread as they are published. I will try to edit the main post of the thread to include each as it is released, but if I can't, I'll just post them in line. CA: #19 1B: #12 2B: #20 3B: #23 SS: #16 CF: #13 RF: #21 LF: #25 DH: #12 (of 15) SP: #8 RP: #7 Avg Rank (counting DH as #24): #17 First up is catchers: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2...nkings-catcher/ #19 White Sox Name WAR Tyler Flowers 2.4 Hector Gimenez 0.7 Josh Phegley 0.1 Total 3.2 There’s not much to say about Hector Gimenez or Josh Phegley. Certainly not that you’d find worth reading. Tyler Flowers is the player of intrigue, being not old and possessing a .484 minor-league slugging percentage. Flowers swings hard and misses a lot, and that’s not a characteristic that’s going to be ironed out over time. That’s going to stick with Flowers for as long as he plays. But his power is real and it should look even better in Chicago half the time. In limited big-league trials Flowers has posted a .183 ISO. He doesn’t seem to be a defensive liability. If Flowers can keep his strikeouts even somewhat in control, he should give the White Sox some stability at the position. He won’t be great and his backups will be worse, but the White Sox could get enough production to be satisfied. Next, first basemen: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2...ngs-first-base/ #12 White Sox Name WAR Paul Konerko 2.6 Adam Dunn 0.2 Tyler Flowers 0.1 Total 700 2.9 Paul Konerko is finally starting to decline, but he’s still very good, at least with the bat. Even with his power dropping, his approach is still good enough that he manages to strike out at a remarkably low rate. Despite some injury issues last year, he managed nearly 600 plate appearances, so the playing time distribution is not all that crazy for him. Adam Dunn will probably have to see time at first at some point. After a nice start to 2012, Dunn tailed off, but can still deliver OK-ish production. I doubt Tyler Flowers will see much time at first base, but given Konerko’s age and Dunn’s “skills,” he is probably a fair approximation for whichever players the White Sox would have to put at first base in lieu of the other two. Second basemen: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/p...-second-base-2/ #20 White Sox Name WAR Gordon Beckham 2.0 Jeff Keppinger 0.1 Angel Sanchez 0.1 Carlos Sanchez 0.1 Total 2.3 In 2009, just one year after the White Sox selected him with the eigth pick of the 2008 draft, Gordon Beckham came up and hit .270/.347/.460 (109 wRC+) with 14 home runs in just 103 games. In the three years since, the White Sox have been waiting for that Gordon Beckham to show up again. In the three years since, Beckham has posted wRC+ marks of 86, 71 and 79. The power he flashed has never materialized; his .137 ISO in 2012 was his highest since his .190 rookie mark. Beckham did take one definitive step forward in 2012, though, as he set a career best with an 8.3 percent swinging strike rate. He struck out in just 15.3 percnt of plate appearances, in line with his 2009 rate. A .254 BABIP prevented it from translating into better results, but this improved contact is the basis behind his projected .251 average (and the improved on-base and slugging the extra singles provide). It isn’t what was hoped for when Beckham first broke into the majors, but if Beckham can keep making contact, he’ll be semi-useful for the White Sox this year. Third basemen: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2...ngs-third-base/ #23 White Sox Name WAR Jeff Keppinger 2.2 Conor Gillaspie 0.3 Brent Morel 0.0 Carlos Sanchez -0.2 Total 2.3 If you’re a White Sox fan and you’re reading this and thinking, ‘Gee, I guess that Keppinger acquisition didn’t really improve our standing at third base all that much,’ keep in mind that last season Chicago was one of four teams that posted a negative WAR at third base. So, you know, it could be worse. Keppinger is no one’s idea of a star, and 2012 was almost assuredly the best season he will have in his baseball career, but fortunately Brent Morel set the bar really, really low last season. Speaking of Morel, he appears to be on the outs, as Gillaspie has seemingly leapfrogged him on the depth chart. Shortstops: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2...ings-shortstop/ #16 White Sox Name WAR Alexei Ramirez 2.5 Angel Sanchez 0.3 Total 2.8 There was a time that Ramirez was a legitimate star, even if nobody knew about it. Dave Cameron once wrote about how Ramirez might’ve been the best shortstop in the American League. But last year, though Ramirez was healthy, he lost almost all of his walks and he additionally lost a chunk of his power without making any gains. Now he’s more into his 30s and we may simply be observing the decline of a quality player. The projections see a bit of an offensive bounceback, which the White Sox would appreciate, but Ramirez probably isn’t the player he was. Eventually, they never are. Ramirez is simply fine enough. Centerfielders: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2...s-center-field/ #13 White Sox Name WAR Alejandro De Aza 3.3 DeWayne Wise 0.1 Total 3.4 The ChiSox have a knack for turning nothing into something, but usually on the pitching side. De Aza, 28, went from Triple-A fodder and up-and-down guy to everyday center fielder last summer, stealing bases (26-for-38, 68.4%) and drawing walks (8.0 BB%) offensively and playing the position with aplomb on defense. The 34-year-old Wise is the obvious backup since the team seems committed to keeping Alex Rios in center, so De Aza is the clear starter unless he suddenly reverts back to his pre-2011 form. That would make things a little messy on the south side. Rightfielders: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/p...-right-field-2/ #21 White Sox Name WAR Alex Rios 1.6 Jordan Danks 0.1 Total 1.6 Alex Rios has had a roller coaster of a career. Both the hero and the goat and sometimes for the same team, he’s now coming off a strong showing in the World Baseball Classic if that means anything to you. It’s hard to put stock in these things, even if he put up a career-best 125 wRC+ last year, because all you have to do is remember back to 2011, when his offense was a career-worst 41% worse than league average. And it’s not easy to see why Rios goes in and out of the tank — some years he has good power, some years he has little power. It might all be less worrisome if he had some patience to fall back on (he doesn’t), or if he was a positive in the field no matter what was going on at the plate (he isn’t). He should be good — in which case he could outproduce this ranking fairly easily — but if he isn’t, Jordan Danks and his strikeouts won’t be enough to make the Chicago faithful forget. There’s a lot of risk here. Leftfielders: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2...ngs-left-field/ #25 White Sox Name WAR Dayan Viciedo 1.4 DeWayne Wise 0.1 Jordan Danks 0.1 Total 1.6 One of the more entertaining bats to watch in batting practice, Viciedo possesses unquestioned power. But his work against right handed pitchers suppresses his value considerably. Viciedo bludgeons lefties, with a .350/.391/.642 line against them in 2012 — but he managed just .225/.271/.380 against right handed pitchers, who he faced over 400 times last year. Still just 24, there’s certainly room for improvement for the stocky Cuban slugger and the projection above reflects that. He’s expected to improve across the board and if manages to keep himself on the field for the bulk of the season, he could provide the White Sox for 2+ WAR. DeWayne Wise and Jordan Danks will back up all outfield positions, and since they’re both left handed, it’s possible they spell Viciedo when there’s a particularly unpleasant right hander on the hill, and there are many in the American League. If Viciedo continues to develop, the White Sox should find themselves several slots higher in 2014. Designated Hitters: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2...ignated-hitter/ #12 White Sox Name WAR Adam Dunn 1.1 Dayan Viciedo 0.1 Paul Konerko 0.1 Total 1.3 Again, in the White Sox, we have a DH position that I — in my fiery, beating heart — prefer in real life, but in the Projection Systems Life, we must confront Dunn’s increasing strikeout rate, decreasing OBP — his startling 2011 season, his underwhelming 2012 bounce-back (an un-Dunnian 114 wRC+) — the ticking clock of Dunn’s career, the tick tock. Dunn is 33 with a skillset that ages poorly, and his most likely backup — defensive liability Dayan Viciedo — has yet to prove himself against righties. This is not a bad DH situation for the White Sox, but it is not above the DH crowd. Starting Pitchers: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2...-pitchers-1-15/ #8 White Sox Name WAR Chris Sale 4.9 Jake Peavy 3.4 Gavin Floyd 2.8 Jose Quintana 1.7 Dylan Axelrod 1.2 John Danks 1.3 Hector Santiago 0.4 Simon Castro 0.1 Total 15.8 If Chris Sale lives up to this projection, the White Sox could be sneaky playoff contenders again, even with all the question marks behind him. While Don Cooper and the training staff have a long history of keeping pitchers healthy, there are a number of question marks in the rotation, with John Danks’ ability to contribute chief among those. Luckily for the White Sox, these forecasts don’t think that there’s really much of a drop-off in going from Danks to Dylan Axelrod, giving them very similar forecasts across the board. Unfortunately, with Danks on the shelf to start the season, the White Sox are a bit thin behind Axelrod, and another injury could create some real problems. Thus, Cooper and Herm Schneider will need to keep working their voodoo to keep the current five healthy as long as possible, at least until Danks is able to contribute again. Sale gives them a real weapon up front, but if they’re going to keep pace with the rest of the AL contenders, they need their rotation to be strong all the way through. Relief Pitching: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/p...-pitchers-1-15/ #7 White Sox Name WAR Addison Reed 1.0 Matt Thornton 1.3 Jesse Crain 0.5 Matt Lindstrom 0.6 Nate Jones 45.0 0.3 Donnie Veal 0.1 Dylan Axelrod 0.0 The Others -0.1 Total 3.7 The White Sox bullpen has conspired in recent seasons to produce no shortage of amusement. For years, it seemed obvious that uber-effective left-hander Matt Thornton ought to be given the closer role, but a combination of Bobby Jenks, Ozzie Guillen, and Thornton’s own ineffectiveness when given the opportunity have made that contingency less and less likely. This past season, with Robin Ventura in his first year as manager, it was a different scenario: despite the presence of the young and hard-throwing Addison Reed, Ventura named screwballer Hector Santiago as the team’s closer. By May, however, that had changed, and Reed went on to perform quite ably (55.0 IP, 99 xFIP-, 0.9 WAR). Despite the handwringing sometimes associated with the club’s bullpen, the South Siders have produced some of the league’s highest-quality relief innings over the last five seasons, producing the seventh-lowest park-adjusted ERA over that time and second-highest overall WAR — while having success with projects like J.J. Putz (who had been injured irrecovably, it seemed) and Sergio Santos (who was converted from the infield). With pitching coach Don Cooper around, and the club’s highly praised training staff, there’s little reason to think that 2013 will be much different. Most of last year’s personnel returns, with Addison Reed, Matt Thornton, and Jesse Crain (provided he gets over some recent issues with his hip) assuming the bulk of the high-leverage innings. The success of Nate Jones (71.2 IP, 96 xFIP-, 1.1 WAR) was another pleasant development for the 2012 White Sox, and the right-hander is also likely to see his share of appearances.

QUOTE (TomSeaverFan @ Mar 11, 2013 -> 06:05 PM) Anybody worried Paulie's hitting too well this spring? Is he wasting the power in meaningless spring games? My dad used to worry about stuff like that so I guess it's been passed on to me. Wasting his power?

Welp. Some righty just took Sale WAY deep to left.

QUOTE (flavum @ Mar 11, 2013 -> 04:25 PM) Sale still out there for the 6th? Wow. I guess it is March 11th already, and he seems to have been efficient. Wish we could see his pitch count.

BOT 5: Sanchez singles, Danks GIDP, Beckham singles sharply into left, Dunn flies out to CF

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Mar 11, 2013 -> 03:58 PM) He will be until the end, at least. Is he out of options? Is that how we got him?

Eric Young flies out to the track in LF. Jared Mitchell made a very nice over-the-shoulder catch.

Konerko out somehow. (I missed it ) Sale back in for the 4th to face the top of the lineup.

Dunn with a towering pop out to LF. Konerko up with 2 outs, Beckham still on first.

QUOTE (flavum @ Mar 11, 2013 -> 03:49 PM) He's not having a good spring. Indeed, and Tekotte is still around.

Danks picked off third by the C

Beckham with a bloop single, scoring Sanchez.

Jordan Danks walks. Runners on the corners, none out for Beckham.

Angel Sanchez triples into the RF corner to lead off the bottom of the 3rd

THAT is a nasty slider.

Carlos Sanchez got a very aggressive ranking (#64) on Marc Hulet's 2013 top 100 list over at Fangraphs: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/f...00-prospects-2/

Marc Hulet's top 100 list came out today on Fangraphs, and includes a HUGE surprise. Courtney Hawkins is at #63, but check out #64: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/f...00-prospects-2/

I think we have the "goods" without Sale to come up with an acceptable offer, but I DON'T think we have enough to avoid being outbid.

QUOTE (Lillian @ Mar 7, 2013 -> 04:43 PM) Let's just hope that Alexei can improve on his OBP. I understand that he was dealing with a very sore wrist after the collision with de Aza, but how does that explain taking just 16 walks, and having an OBP of .287? I saw a stat on Fangraphs that had Alexei as among the worst in the Majors last year at swinging at pitches out of the zone.