Eminor3rd

QUOTE (The Ultimate Champion @ Dec 3, 2012 -> 12:11 PM) The biggest problem with trying to talk baseball these days is the way people use OPS they way you do. WTF is OPS? f*** OPS, give me HRs. Naopli is a low batting average right hander who takes a walks and doesn't have Dunn's power. He's a poor man's Dunn and he doesn't defend well enough anywhere to justify his contract. This cracks me up every time. How can you call OPS a statistic that is one "small, simple number" and then make an argument that we should look at one smaller, simpler number that is one of many inputs into OPS? The funny thing is that you're right, OPS does suck. But it sucks because it's inaccurate, not because it's "too simple." If you want to end this argument over context and how much you and I "feel" like each number matters, use linear weights. This problem has already been solved -- wOBA and wRC+ are the best, most complete, most accurate offensive measurements we have. There's no opinion involved, they simply weigh everything a hitter does based on how they actually affect run scoring in the current run environment. I've never heard anyone try to make an argument against this method.

Wouldn't mind taking a flyer on the non-tendered Jair Jurrjens, knowing we have Santiago/Quintana in case he doesn't work out.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 30, 2012 -> 01:32 PM) ???? Yeah, Schlereth is a lefty power reliever. I don't think there's any chance he'll ever be anything like a starter, especially after his injury problems last year. It's also worth noting that he isn't even arbitration eligible, which makes me think his injury may have finished him -- otherwise non-tendering him would make no sense.

QUOTE (bucket-of-suck @ Nov 29, 2012 -> 11:42 PM) Heard that a guy the Sox are considering as a Floyd replacement is a certain former 1st rounder that may be non-tendered by a division rival tomorrow... Porcello?

QUOTE (Buehrle>Wood @ Nov 28, 2012 -> 09:42 AM) ESPN asked twenty writers where Hamilton would end uo. Two said the Sox. One said five years, 125 mil. Other, four years for 81 mil. Two also said the Rays, lol.

I think we'll see a bigger "domino effect" this year than usual

QUOTE (greg775 @ Nov 27, 2012 -> 01:38 PM) The offseason might be time to legitimately discuss the actual value of a hitting coach aside from providing all the tools night and day for players: tapes, access to hitting apparatus, etc. We go from Walker to Manto, yet the team still was station to station and still only won when we hit home runs. Was there an improvement? Was there increased value? I say no. Players: Dunn - he did improve in home run bomb totals but still whiffed a ton and still had horrific batting average. Was Manto the reason he made contact 30 more times and got the ball up in the air? Maybe. Advantage Manto. Beckham - He stunk again. Manto made no difference. Lexi - He did not have a good year. Manto made no difference. Youk - As a veteran surely did not listen much to Manto. He definitely didn't revitalize his hitting under Manto. Manto made no difference. Viciedo - He had the same bad tendencies at the plate, swinging at everything, although amazingly he drew as many walks as Rios. He did not look like he had a clue at the plate, albeit only a rookie. Manto made no difference. DeAza - Decent enough year, but nothing special to make you think Manto created some special player. Manto made no difference. If you argue violently on this one, I'd be willing to give Manto some applause on DeAza. Rios - Is Rios Manto's guy? The guy who makes it seem as Manto is great? Or did Rios figure some things out on his own as a veteran? Advantage Manto. AJ - Had a nice power season. Is Manto the reason? Doubtful being AJ is a headstrung veteran, but we'll give it to Manto. Advantage Manto. Paulie - Was streakier than he's been, had that long long stretch of nothingness cause of injury probably. Definitely no better under Manto than Walker. Manto made no difference. Lilly - Terrible before we let him go. Manto made no difference. Hudson - No reclamation under Manto. Flowers - Did pretty well for a young guy but did he seem like a guy blossoming under a new hitting coach? No. Manto made no difference. So in conclusion did Dunn's increased home run totals and Rios' outstanding season and AJ's excellence mean Manto is some sort of guru? That he is that much better than Walker? Three veterans' improvement?? I say No. I say Walker and Manto are the same guy, folks. They are capable hitting coaches who provide the tools but it's the player who swings the bat. This is not an attack at Manto, but more a defense of Walker and more a commentary on the hitting coach position. It is my belief they don't matter that much. If they did, well, Manto has all offseason to fix Beckham, doesn't he? I'm not sure I disagree with your ultimate conclusion, Greg, but what are you basing all of this on? How can you confidently gauge Manto's influence on these guys without any inside information? I posit that you cannot.

QUOTE (SpainSOXfan09 @ Nov 21, 2012 -> 01:04 PM) Could anyone stomach an outfield of Tank in LF, Wise in CF, and DeAza in RF if we can manage to swing a trade for Rios by selling high and getting something of value back? Even if we eat some of Rios' salary? I want to say a 3rd baseman but I can't think of any scenario where we get a high upside 3rd baseman unless we pry loose a prospect from some team who is doing well in AAA and is MLB ready or a year away. No, you'd have to upgrade big time at 3B to make that reasonable, and I don't think there's any guy available that is thast kind of upgrade, and less so someone available for Rios.

QUOTE (SpainSOXfan09 @ Nov 21, 2012 -> 11:48 AM) I thought at one point they might try to sell high on Rios and try to move him maybe in one of those 3 team scenarios Hahn hinted at for an established 3rd baseman or a very strong prospect. Wise is not a starter

Bad news for Jordan Danks

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 20, 2012 -> 03:20 PM) So in conclusion, the Tigers had a bad year, the Sox had a good year, and we still finished 3 games back. The Sox are probably losing key players from their starting line up, while the Tigers are adding at least Torii Hunter and Victor Martinez. I am thinking the odds are pretty small. Like in the 5 to 10% range. I think it's a bit higher than that, but I mostly agree with you. My point isn't that the Sox are likely to win, but rather that it's definitely plausible. And it happened this year -- we contended. If you are in the hunt, you can pull it out. That's exactly what the Tigers did. They stayed in the hunt and they pulled it out. If the Sox are in a similar position in August next year, that's a successful season because we'll have a shot at the end. Don't forget that a LOT of things broke right for the Tigers at the end of the year. Early in the year, when they weren't winning, they weren't flush with bad luck or anything, their flaws were just showing. Scherzer is good, but he outpitched Verlander for two months before starting to have arm problems. It's just as likely that he goes down for Tommy John in May as it is that he outpitches Verlander for half the season. Hunter had a great season this years that is absolutely flush with dangerous signs of regression -- there's just as good a chance he hits an age wall as there is that he repeats this season. Victor Martinez is old and his knees are wrecked -- there's just as good a chance his power is gone for good as there is that he comes back as the same player that they signed. You and I agree that the Tigers are favorites, but there is a very realistic possibility that things break our way and we end up in the division hunt. And if we are in the division hunt, we have a realistic chance at the playoffs.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 20, 2012 -> 03:10 PM) Depending on what the Tigers do this winter, they stand as a 90 win team right now. If they can lock down some pitching, they moves them into the 95 win range. That is a huge margin to make up, depending just on some luck. QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 20, 2012 -> 03:11 PM) Yeah, how'd that work out? Everyone (except some of us on this board) thought the Tigers were going to win that many games this year, too. Instead, they won 88 and gpot in only because our Sox totally crapped the bed and lost 11 of 13 down the stretch. We didn't win it this year, but we absolutely contended. In fact, we had it in the bag and blew it. We very easily could have played .500 ball toward the end and gotten in. You're right, the Tigers are gonna be a lot better. I think our chances are worse next year than they were this year. But it's not at all implausible that we could win the division, even if it isn't the most likely outcome.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 20, 2012 -> 02:27 PM) No matter what they say, they aren't going to compete next year. This just isn't true. While I agree that it is most likely that the Tigers will win, any team that projects for 80 wins is a couple injuries and a hot streak from making the playoffs.

I think Humber is an obvious non-tender. Hahn should try to send him to San Diego or Houston for a random live arm.

Another year of mediocrity in Kansas City

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 19, 2012 -> 01:25 PM) The catchers stat wouldn't be reflective of the pitchers quality per se. For example, Pitcher A has an ERA of 4.50. When Catcher A catches for them, their ERA was 4.00. When catcher B catches for them, their ERA was 5.00. Catcher A would have a ERA difference of +.50. Catcher B would be at -.50. Taken over the course of a season, it should equalize out to give a pretty good number based not on who they catch, but how much better or worse they are on average, when a particular catcher is behind the plate. That would indeed be controlling for quality of pitcher, by using the pitcher's average. I understand now. You should make it happen

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 19, 2012 -> 10:41 AM) It would be interesting to see a stat done that takes the pitchers ERA and gives a plus or minus to the catcher based on what the pitchers performance was. You'd have to control for the quality of the pitcher and have lots of instances where pitcher's pitched a ton to different catchers. I think you'd have a very small sample of data and possibly no one would end up a standard deviation above or below average. Good idea though. Might be worth requesting this type of research from some of the writers at BP or FanGraphs.

So Trayce Thompson had a good AFL, right?

I would surprised if the Yankees don't re-sign Chavez. Keppinger can definitely hit but he's horrible defensively all over the field. Johnson would be really intriguing because he's left-handed, and could conceivably platoon with Morel to get Brent some at-bats about a quarter of the time. Overall, Chavez would be the best "scrap heap" option if he can be had.

QUOTE (YASNY @ Nov 17, 2012 -> 12:19 PM) I think you just proved his point.

QUOTE (JoshPR @ Nov 17, 2012 -> 07:30 AM) I said the same thing in game threads in the past, Gavin pitched better with flowers and farmio mentioned it a lot, but I got called crazy here and all people were throwing at me was AJ's offensive season. How many times did AJ call bad sliders from Gavin when the curve was working? That's just a small sample, but all people threw at me were the damn sabermetrics bulls***. Lol, what the hell does any of that have to do with sabermetrics?

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/t...layers-of-2012/

QUOTE (KyYlE23 @ Nov 15, 2012 -> 12:09 PM) http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/kansas-...-to-deal-111512 just speculation These passages are hilarious: That would be SUCH a Dayton Moore move, lol. I really feel bad for Royals fans sometimes. Yes, Lucas Harrell is the missing piece of the next Royals dynasty, lol. Sometimes I wonder how they find these reporters. It must just be hustle that lands these guys big jobs.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 16, 2012 -> 08:28 AM) My temple hurts more Lol

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/q...rewball-artist/