Eminor3rd

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 12, 2012 -> 04:10 PM) Alcohol is a huge problem though. It will ALWAYS lead to drugs, and he will ALWAYS be an alcoholic. If he continued to drink, he would continue to push the limits and he WOULD relapse into hard drugs again. Alcoholics don't have one drink and then call it a night...they will go and drink the night away, and then in the name of spontaneity, they will go and do something else for the hell of it, and, knowing Hamilton's history, that would include relapsing into hard drugs, which could ultimately kill him. I don't consider the relapse to be the main issue in signing him, but "only once a year" doesn't justify or excuse his actions. Once a year for Josh Hamilton is one time too many. Relevant: https://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=18883

QUOTE (2nd_city_saint787 @ Nov 12, 2012 -> 04:02 PM) You're right because when looking at the deals their contracts are not even close...I was wrong, Wells was owed 86 mill, 51 mill more than what Rios is owed. So that reference is pretty extreme. Yeah, that trade was completely unjustifiable. I mean it got Reagins fired.

QUOTE (2nd_city_saint787 @ Nov 12, 2012 -> 03:51 PM) Ya but theirs a huge difference between the 80 Mill on Verons contract compared to just 25 on Alexs deal. Sure, but the fact that a totally insane, senseless, unprecedented deal happened doesn't give us a realistic point of comparison for other deals. I'm not saying Rios couldn't ever fetch a good player, just that the Wells deal has nothing to do with it because was a total outlier.

Yeah, at the end of the day, we just don't have enough to gain from Hamilton to blow that kind of money. If we had a black hole in RF/LF like we do at 3B, it might be different, but you can't just think of his raw production, you have to think about how much MORE it is than who he would replace. And I don't think that's nearly enough to command all of our resources this offseason.

QUOTE (2nd_city_saint787 @ Nov 12, 2012 -> 03:36 PM) Vernon Wells was traded for good pieces and his contract was leaps and bounds worse than Alex Rios contract. Toronto saved 80 mill in that deal, Rios only has 25 mill left on his contract. Yeah, but that's widely heralded as possibly the worst trade of all-time. It doesn't make sense to use that to set expectations.

QUOTE (2nd_city_saint787 @ Nov 12, 2012 -> 03:27 PM) In the scenario I'm presenting Rios, who I truly believe is a good trade chip, would be traded for a 3B. Whether it be in a round about way or straight up. So swapping Rios for Hamilton= getting a quality 3B, adding a LH bat to the Sox RH heavy lineup, and an upgrade of 100 OPS points. The problem with Rios' contract isn't that it's an albatross, it is that it is close to fair market value. The only time you get a good return for a guy is when there is surplus value in his contract, which is why teams often pick up a significant portion of these types of contracts in a trade -- to create surplus value for the team that gets him. I'm sure the Sox could get a good piece or two if they picked up, say, half of Rios' contract. But now you're talking about taking on $6m there and then paying Hamilton something like $22m on top of that. All of a sudden you're paying $28m instead of $12m and adding maybe one win. At that point, why not just re-sign Youkilis for less and spend the money saved elsewhere? You'd have to find someone willing to give up a 3B that's better than Youkilis and you'd still be spending more money -- I just can't think of anyone who will send us that kind of 3B for Rios at half price.

QUOTE (2nd_city_saint787 @ Nov 12, 2012 -> 02:53 PM) Any team in on Josh Hamilton would be in on Rios more than likely. Everyone seems to believe Gavin will be traded so he has to have some value, and I'm sure there are teams out there that need a LH set up guy. All they need is a 3B out of those 3 guys, i dont care is they get little to nothing else. For the next 2 years having a middle of a lineup that includes Hamilton, PK, and Dunn, makes the White sox title contenders Josh Hamilton just had a 4.4 WAR season. Alex Rios just had a 4.3 WAR season. Hamilton is better, but much more likely to spend significant time on the DL. Hamilton will cost double what Rios costs, meaning you won't be able to get a 3B. I would rather have Hamilton if everything is equal, but I don't think the upgrade is even close to enough to justify the cost of not upgrading elsewhere.

Regarding Headley's power: PetCo actually doesn't suppress righty power nearly as much as it does lefty power. It still plays down on righty power, but more like a typical pitcher's park. I think SafeCo actually killed righty power much more the last couple years. You'd expect the Cell to help out Headley's power a bit, but probably not enough to make up for the move to the tougher league. Here's the most interesting data point -- Headley's HR/FB% since his first full season in 2008: 10.7%, 7.6%, 6.4%, 4.3%, 21.4%. This is exactly what happened with Joe Mauer in his MVP season -- a massively flukey HR/FB rate with no evidence of a change in approach or environment except that he was in his age 28 season and that maybe he was finally peaking. If he had a decent, healthy year, I'd guess 20-25. It seems very unlikely he's a true talent 30+ HR guy, even in the Cell.

QUOTE (southside_hitman @ Nov 12, 2012 -> 05:32 AM) Chase Headley solves the third base dilemma and provides the Left Hand power that could be lost when Dunn gets moved. I would offer to trade Peavey back to SD and package Thornton and Beckham with him. On another front I would try to trade Dunn to some National league ball club with the goal of dumping most of his salary. Thorton must be traded on principle alone. Too many blown saves and his refusal to adjust his pitching style, And one shocker I would offer up for trade - Addison Reed. I think Nate Jones has better stuff and Reed may bring the trade value that other pitchers we have won't. Why would SD add all that payroll in what would be a lateral move? Which NL club would ever put Adam Dunn on the field every day for the next few years at this point? Why would you ever trade someone on "principle"? You think Thornton doesn't want to have more good pitches? Trading a guy because he performed poorly in a role he isn't well-suited for makes no sense. Thornton is a reliever that is effective in high leverage situations against left-handed hitters. You trade him if you decide you don't want to pay his salary for that job, not because he blew a bunch of saves. That's like saying we should trade Rios because he was bad in CF.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Nov 9, 2012 -> 02:19 PM) Lol, no. If you think we can acquire ANY of those players, save Gyorko or MAYBE Seager, than you have been playing too much Nintendo baseball. I mean, seriously, try to come up with a realistic trade scenario for ANY of those players that doesn't include Chris Sale.

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Nov 9, 2012 -> 12:12 PM) When Hahn mentioned some 3-way type deals, all I can think about is him trying to get Choo. Reading that 3-way quote, I get the sense he was just using at as a device t say that his initial talk could turn into to anything from nothing to a lot. I didn't get the sense he actually meant there were 3 way deals on the horizon.

QUOTE (JoeCoolMan24 @ Nov 9, 2012 -> 11:49 AM) "Miracle 3B"?? I don't know what that means, but 3B I would consider myself pleased with acquiring..... Mike Moustakas Chase Headley Jedd Gyorko Adrian Beltre Ryan Zimmerman Hanley Ramirez Pedro Alvarez David Freese Brett Lawrie (Going to class, let me edit this with more soon) Lol, everyone on that list is untouchable except MAYBE Gyorko.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 9, 2012 -> 11:48 AM) Some speculation the Sox may be interested,in Logan Forsythe who appears to be the odd man out in SD. Yeah, Forsythe might be more realistic than Gyorko. I'd be alright that too.

Nah, he gone. Thanks for the memories, AJ.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Nov 9, 2012 -> 11:34 AM) You aren't valuing Floyd too highly but it's probably the wrong team. San Diego will probably play Gyorko at 2B if they keep Headley. Also, I don't think SD would want 1 year of Floyd at $9.5 million. Granted, that is a bargain, I think they want cost controllable arms with years of arbitration still coming. Yeah, I don't know if it adds up quite right, but they need pitching so badly. I agree that if they do keep Gyorko, they'll move him to 2B, but I don't know that doing that makes them better than moving Gyorko for pitching would. I mean, they're using Eric Stults right now. And, many aren't sure if Gyorko is a great fit at 2B.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Nov 9, 2012 -> 11:28 AM) Viciedo being moved, De Aza being moved, means another OF coming in. Hahn already has said 2013 is not a rebuilding year. No doubt Hamilton is a pipe dream, although except for the booze and crack and whatever else, he is exactly what they need. I still think the names mentioned could be traded for and in some cases for other teams" prospects for Justin Upton. Sox and D Backs have dealt a lot in the past, and this is probably a pipe dream as well, although not quite as big. But we don't have anything like the bullets to get Upton. The D'backs want a young, cheap SS, 3B, or SP to be the centerpiece, and we just don't have any of that to give up -- all of our young value is in OF and RP. Even if you came up with a reasonable package, the Rays can trump it instantly with any of their breakout SP candidates. There's just no scenario where we end up with the best offer for Upton. EDIT: Or, wait, you're suggesting moving OF/RP to get the things the D'backs want. Sorry, I didn't read that carefully enough. Still, anyone who would want to give up those pieces for Viciedo/ADA would be better off just going straight for Upton, right?

QUOTE (RockRaines @ Nov 9, 2012 -> 11:27 AM) I think Dan Hayes is pull this info out of his ass. ADA and Dayan would be two of the hardest players to pry from the Sox. They would probably trade half their pitching staff before those guys, especially Viciedo. His info reeks of 8th hand BS. Yeah, I think you're right. I can see moving Viciedo IF Hahn values his upside way differently than KW did, but moving ADA makes absolutely no sense. You can't get his production in CF for cheaper than you're paying him and there's no viable replacement internally.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 9, 2012 -> 08:42 AM) Honestly, unless there is some miracle deal that comes together, there aren't any taylor made 3B out there for the Sox to grab. They are going to have to give up something big to get a 3B that will be around for years. Yeah, the idea of us getting Moustakas is hilarious, Headley only slightly less so. As far as complete speculation goes, I like the idea of us moving Floyd and cash (and maybe some other prospect) to San Diego to get Gyorko. San Diego's moves indicate that they are moving toward contention (extending Street and Quentin, not moving Headley), and Gavin owuld KILL in Petco when lefties can't homer off of him. Gyorko is substantially worse than Headley, but would make a ton fo sense for the Sox. Anyway, I don't know if I'm valuing Floyd too highly, but that scenario, to me, at least seems somewhat plausible.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Nov 9, 2012 -> 11:12 AM) I can see no scenario where Hamilton would be signed here. That is a ridiculous pipe dream. I agree with you completely . I was just responding to people who were thinking that the rumors of Viciedo being moved meant it might make sense to go for Hamilton.

If what Hahn is saying about the payroll being about $97 like last year is true, the only scenario where we end up with Hamilton is where Rios is moved first, not Viciedo (because we're sitting at about $89m right now).

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS 3B is #chisox area of focus, and they're talking to youkilis. They loved him in clubhouse. Indians, phils in mix.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Nov 6, 2012 -> 11:35 AM) Please stop. This is not absolute fact but merely opinion that cannot be universally applied to all batters in all slots. If your eyes told you that Adam Dunn helped the team more than he hurt it this year then that's your opinion. My opinion is that he, along with a few other hitters, killed us. He hurt us the most because he placed an unfeared, auto-out in between our stack of good hitters. Just because he hit 41 pitches hard this year does not discount the other 1500 that fooled him. Stats aside I'd rate the offense like this: DeAza- tough out Youk- tough out Dunn- easy out PK- tough out Rios- tough out AJ- tough out Tank- easy out Alexei- easy out Jimmy- easy out IMO Dunn was the biggest problem. Lol, statistical research is not fact, but the Jerksticks "tough out/easy out" matrix is rock solid. If you use facts, you find out that only Konerko, Rios, De Aza, and Youkilis made fewer outs on the White Sox than Dunn.

Yeah there's just so many years of research on pitcher evaluation freely available on the Internet. I'm not trying to be a jerk, but google some stuff. Check out Volos McCracken and DIPS theory as a starting point.

QUOTE (VAfan @ Nov 5, 2012 -> 05:34 PM) Brain surgery doesn't concern you at least as much as a first-time elbow issue? It's not that, it's just that it's probably easier to evaluate whether or not it affects him immediately (based on his coordination, etc.) when compared to elbow pain, which is something that almost always continues to get worse. I mean, I'm not confident arguing that McCarthy is safe going forward, but I do think it's closer to a wash than the career IP numbers suggest, and I would be more confident in the Sox staff's assessment of McCarthy this year than of Floyd this year, just based on the type of injuries.

QUOTE (VAfan @ Nov 5, 2012 -> 05:28 PM) Fair enough. I'm not saying my analysis is the most sophisticated one available. However, I do think my point is still salient. The Sox need much better bullpen performance if they want to contend next year, and this is probably the area where the most difference could be made, since the rotation and lineup seem pretty set. I agree with that -- the pen could have been much better and it includes bigger holes that would be easier to upgrade than those in the rotation/lineup, 3B notwithstanding. I wonder, though, how much of that bullpen performance can be efficiently improved through acquisition, given how volatile RP performance tends to be from year to year. I'm afraid the Sox could pay up big (either in cash or prospects) for a couple guys coming off good years who are nearly as likely to flop as to dominate, when their current pen may not actually be facing much worse odds. This is interesting: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0 Just using the Orioles/Sox comparison, their bullpens produced 6.4 and 3.6 WAR, respectively. So, that basically means that those values were the average amount of marginal wins that those teams' bullpens would produce given their numbers in the current run environment. Obviously, the reality is context driven and much was different, as the Orioles pen ended up winning them many more than 6 games. But, numbers-wise, that pen's performance was only a 2-3 wins better than Chicago's on average, which is the way you have to look at it if you want to project success, since you can't predict context. I think what this shows is that the bullpen can really save you or kill you whether it's good or bad, depending on how situations and events play out. This is just an area that's really difficult to predict and thus very risky to invest in. The range of outcomes may be very similar whether the Sox go in with the league-average-ish pen they have now or with a costly one based on guys that were good last year. It's just a scary place to put your resources, and I think I'd be more comfortable rolling this year's crop out than taking that type of a gamble. I'd rather see those resources put toward 3B/C/SP, even if the money won't go quite as far.