Eminor3rd

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 9, 2012 -> 08:42 AM) Honestly, unless there is some miracle deal that comes together, there aren't any taylor made 3B out there for the Sox to grab. They are going to have to give up something big to get a 3B that will be around for years. Yeah, the idea of us getting Moustakas is hilarious, Headley only slightly less so. As far as complete speculation goes, I like the idea of us moving Floyd and cash (and maybe some other prospect) to San Diego to get Gyorko. San Diego's moves indicate that they are moving toward contention (extending Street and Quentin, not moving Headley), and Gavin owuld KILL in Petco when lefties can't homer off of him. Gyorko is substantially worse than Headley, but would make a ton fo sense for the Sox. Anyway, I don't know if I'm valuing Floyd too highly, but that scenario, to me, at least seems somewhat plausible.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Nov 9, 2012 -> 11:12 AM) I can see no scenario where Hamilton would be signed here. That is a ridiculous pipe dream. I agree with you completely . I was just responding to people who were thinking that the rumors of Viciedo being moved meant it might make sense to go for Hamilton.

If what Hahn is saying about the payroll being about $97 like last year is true, the only scenario where we end up with Hamilton is where Rios is moved first, not Viciedo (because we're sitting at about $89m right now).

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS 3B is #chisox area of focus, and they're talking to youkilis. They loved him in clubhouse. Indians, phils in mix.

QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Nov 6, 2012 -> 11:35 AM) Please stop. This is not absolute fact but merely opinion that cannot be universally applied to all batters in all slots. If your eyes told you that Adam Dunn helped the team more than he hurt it this year then that's your opinion. My opinion is that he, along with a few other hitters, killed us. He hurt us the most because he placed an unfeared, auto-out in between our stack of good hitters. Just because he hit 41 pitches hard this year does not discount the other 1500 that fooled him. Stats aside I'd rate the offense like this: DeAza- tough out Youk- tough out Dunn- easy out PK- tough out Rios- tough out AJ- tough out Tank- easy out Alexei- easy out Jimmy- easy out IMO Dunn was the biggest problem. Lol, statistical research is not fact, but the Jerksticks "tough out/easy out" matrix is rock solid. If you use facts, you find out that only Konerko, Rios, De Aza, and Youkilis made fewer outs on the White Sox than Dunn.

Yeah there's just so many years of research on pitcher evaluation freely available on the Internet. I'm not trying to be a jerk, but google some stuff. Check out Volos McCracken and DIPS theory as a starting point.

QUOTE (VAfan @ Nov 5, 2012 -> 05:34 PM) Brain surgery doesn't concern you at least as much as a first-time elbow issue? It's not that, it's just that it's probably easier to evaluate whether or not it affects him immediately (based on his coordination, etc.) when compared to elbow pain, which is something that almost always continues to get worse. I mean, I'm not confident arguing that McCarthy is safe going forward, but I do think it's closer to a wash than the career IP numbers suggest, and I would be more confident in the Sox staff's assessment of McCarthy this year than of Floyd this year, just based on the type of injuries.

QUOTE (VAfan @ Nov 5, 2012 -> 05:28 PM) Fair enough. I'm not saying my analysis is the most sophisticated one available. However, I do think my point is still salient. The Sox need much better bullpen performance if they want to contend next year, and this is probably the area where the most difference could be made, since the rotation and lineup seem pretty set. I agree with that -- the pen could have been much better and it includes bigger holes that would be easier to upgrade than those in the rotation/lineup, 3B notwithstanding. I wonder, though, how much of that bullpen performance can be efficiently improved through acquisition, given how volatile RP performance tends to be from year to year. I'm afraid the Sox could pay up big (either in cash or prospects) for a couple guys coming off good years who are nearly as likely to flop as to dominate, when their current pen may not actually be facing much worse odds. This is interesting: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=...=&players=0 Just using the Orioles/Sox comparison, their bullpens produced 6.4 and 3.6 WAR, respectively. So, that basically means that those values were the average amount of marginal wins that those teams' bullpens would produce given their numbers in the current run environment. Obviously, the reality is context driven and much was different, as the Orioles pen ended up winning them many more than 6 games. But, numbers-wise, that pen's performance was only a 2-3 wins better than Chicago's on average, which is the way you have to look at it if you want to project success, since you can't predict context. I think what this shows is that the bullpen can really save you or kill you whether it's good or bad, depending on how situations and events play out. This is just an area that's really difficult to predict and thus very risky to invest in. The range of outcomes may be very similar whether the Sox go in with the league-average-ish pen they have now or with a costly one based on guys that were good last year. It's just a scary place to put your resources, and I think I'd be more comfortable rolling this year's crop out than taking that type of a gamble. I'd rather see those resources put toward 3B/C/SP, even if the money won't go quite as far.

QUOTE (VAfan @ Nov 5, 2012 -> 05:17 PM) I'll reply here as well. McCarthy is not a reliable replacement for Floyd. In 7 seasons, he's averaging less than 100 IPs per year (654 innings total since 2005). Floyd has pitched 1127 innings since 2004. Both guys are 29 (Floyd is older by 6 months.). Right but now Floyd has elbow issues. His lowest season was his most recent. McCarthy missed most of last season with a freak head injury, which would have to be considered not to be a long-term issue if someone is willing to sign him. I don't think career innings makes sense here, I think we have to look at the situation and see how likely it is to be a problem going forward.

QUOTE (VAfan @ Nov 5, 2012 -> 05:13 PM) So, let's see if I have this right. The Baltimore bullpen finished 32-11 w-l in relief because their starting staff gave them more chances, and in most of those games they were already behind. But that's not better than the Sox bullpen, which finished 25-25 w-l in relief, even though the Sox starters were better and so turned over more games where we were ahead or tied? To my way of looking at it, to get to 32-11, the Baltimore bullpen had to pitch well enough for the team to rally to victories 32 times, and had to hold on when they did catch up enough to lose only 11 games. Both numbers indicate significantly better bullpen performance than the Sox' got, which lost 25 times when it was handed a lead or a tie. If someone wanted to do the game-by-game breakdown, I think it would bear this out. I'm not saying that the Baltimore pen wasn't better, I'm just saying that looking at W-L is a bad way to tell because W-L is a proxy, not a measure of isolated performance. How much more/less run support did the Baltimore bullpen get? What was the difference in leverage index? Which teams did they beat and which did they lose to? If you want to compare the bullpens, you should look at how their pitchers actually performed.

QUOTE (VAfan @ Nov 5, 2012 -> 04:50 PM) This might explain Baltimore's wins. It does not explain Baltimore's AL-low 11 bullpen losses. That's the stat worth paying attention to. Baltimore's bullpen blew almost no games, and gave the team whatever time it needed to come back to win games. Sure it does. If the starting rotation is bad, the bullpen inherits fewer leads to blow in addition to more innings. More innings leads to more chances to regain the lead and take a win, fewer chances to blow a lead and take a loss. That's the problem with context stats, you can't reduce the variables enough to determine causality.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 5, 2012 -> 03:40 PM) Besides, if McCarthy is that hot of a commodity, and so cheap to sign, why would they trade something for Floyd, when they could just sign Brandon themselves? Right, that's why hopefully the Sox jump on it. If you get that deal done, you increase Gavin's market. The advantage that the Sox have is that they're already $9.5m into that 4th pitching slot, whereas many other teams may be looking to guarantee less than that to McCarthy. So the Sox could feasibly pay him up to that much money if they're confident they can move Floyd. Ideally, they want to save what they can, but they gain the Floyd haul even if the money is a wash.

Part of the reason Baltimore's bullpen won a ton of games is because their rotation was a complete joke nearly all season. Their bullpen was snatching wins up that most team's starters would have been getting. Secondly, the volatility or RP performance from year to year is a reliable condition, and it makes it very risky and almost always bad to spend a lot of resources on depth guys there. You'd like to have an anchor or two, but the rest of it is just a crapshoot. You need cheap talent there, and we have it already.

Yeah, it's hard to argue that being the team to snatch up McCarthy on an incentive deal early so that you can move Floyd to someplace like Toronto isn't a great idea. It's not like you're asking either of them to be mid-rotation guys -- even a disaster has you with a revolving door 5th man, which is a pretty common thing. The upside, though, is really enticing. MCarthy has pitched like a 2/3 guy when healthy lately.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Nov 5, 2012 -> 08:51 AM) Not to mention, Brandon is the exact opposite type of pitcher you want in USCF. He's different now -- he started throwing sinkers and cutters and now he's a groundballer. He's a really interesting career turn-around guy because he re-invented himself. There have been some cool articles about him this year describing it.

I don't know how you guys think we can move Dunn. He's good, but there's no surplus value in the contract. Who doesn't have a better option than to take that contract? Also, if you go FA, you're going for either Hamilton or Swisher, and both are going to be a lot more expensive than you think they should be.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Oct 29, 2012 -> 11:47 AM) Am I the only one here who would pick up Youk's option? I would.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Oct 29, 2012 -> 02:22 AM) Move's I'd make in light of Twins possibly wanting Buehrle Trade Floyd for Prospects Trade Danks for prospects, low value, but you might get something back. Send some of these prospects + Viciedo + Molina + Santiago + young Non-Reed BP arm for Felix Rotation at this point: Felix Hernandez Chris Sale Jose Quintana Now, work out a deal with Peavy. Decline the option and try to work out a 3/$40M deal with incentives Trade Sanchez, Marinez, and a low level prospect for Burhle. Rotation: Felix Hernandez Chris Sale Jake Peavy Mark Buehrle Jose Quintana Now, sign Josh Hamilton for a lucrative contract WITH clauses (drug related ones). Resign AJ to a deal around 2/$20M Pick up the option on Youk Lineup: CF - Alejandro De Aza 3B - Kevin Youkilis DH - Adam Dunn 1B - Paul Konerko LF - Josh Hamilton RF - Alex Rios C - AJ Pierzynski SS - Alexei Ramirez 2B - Gordon Beckham Reed, Crain, Thornton, Myers (resigned, not option), Veal + 2 others in BP Payroll: A lot of money Attendance: Good (Buehrle back, AJ retained, two Cy Young candidate starters, MVP in the OF, etc.) Then Rick Hahn walks across town, b**** slaps Theo, comes back and we celebrate. Then I wake up. That's a contender alright, but at a payroll of $180m+

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 30, 2012 -> 10:12 AM) Hopefully the market for AJ is lmited and we get him back at a decent number. I agree, but I don't think it's likely, especially given how thin the market is for everything other than OF this year.

QUOTE (kitekrazy @ Oct 29, 2012 -> 08:23 PM) Are they a rival if you keep getting owned by them? So long as we continue to end up a few games apart at the top of the division, yes.

QUOTE (flavum @ Oct 29, 2012 -> 10:02 AM) I don't consider the Tigers a "rival". This isn't college football. But hey, if you want to hate teams out of jealousy, that's your right. How are they not a rival? They are the one team standing between the Sox and the playoffs. They were last year too and probably will be next year. Also, you mean envy, not jealousy. Common misuse: http://www.diffen.com/difference/Envy_vs_Jealousy

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 29, 2012 -> 02:42 PM) Hamilton wouldn't be that big of an add. They already have a great offensive OF, plus a gold glover in CF. I'll get scared if they add another front line starter or some defense in the IF. I wouldn't say they have a "great offensive OF." Plus, Hamilton would actually be a defensive improvement in a corner, he's just bad for CF. Realistically, he replaces Delmon Young's -0.7 WAR and they rotate all of their DHs through that hole to keep them all in the lineup. Swapping Hamilton for Young, Dirks, Boesch, Berry, or Garcia would actually be a pretty big deal, I think. Now, when these guys get older, the team would be a total disaster, but for next year, they could pick up 4-5 wins by adding Hamilton.

QUOTE (SOXOBAMA @ Oct 29, 2012 -> 11:39 AM) Scott Merkin ‏@scottmerkin Peavy and Pierzynski finalists at their respective positions for 2012 Rawlings Gold Gloves to be announced Tuesday. No Beckham or Ramirez Lol, what?

QUOTE (justBLAZE @ Oct 25, 2012 -> 11:13 PM) Right now Carlos Sanchez is just a good average hitter and a good defender, let's not hype him up but let him develop instead IMHO. Sanchez is by no means a super prospect to get excited about, but my point is that he's going to be knocking at the door in 2013 or 2014 and if Beckham doesn't improve, there's no reason he isn't going to get his shot. I'm not saying we should hype Sanchez up, just saying Beckham's leash is limited.