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QUOTE (flavum @ Jan 5, 2012 -> 11:55 AM) I'd rather gamble that productive pitchers will remain productive than trade them now and regret it by June. And win 77 games again? The problem is that we aren't a pitcher or two from winning. Why let those assets rot?

QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Jan 5, 2012 -> 11:49 AM) Or the guys we could possibly trade (Floyd, Crain, Thornton, etc.) suck in 2012 and have no trade value at the deadline. We have to stick to the plan. This is another reason I fear that KW will make mistakes, in order to appease the fans who think everything will turn out fine as long as one or two things work. Exactly. If we're surprisingly good, we'll add at the deadline, but we can't plan on being lucky. Fix the stuff we know is wrong, build from the foundation, get everything in a row. If we have to react to unexpected success, so be it, it's much better than reacting to likely failure.

QUOTE (SOXOBAMA @ Jan 5, 2012 -> 11:41 AM) I'd like to see the Sox trade Dunn, Rios and Peavy this off season.. If we have to pay these guys anyway, why not trade them and eat their salary and at the same time bring in more prospects into this organzation. I think someone says this in every single thread on this site, no matter what the subject is. I'll have to check the SOXFEST one to make sure.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jan 5, 2012 -> 11:41 AM) Like hell Frasor 1 & 22 were. I say we won those. I like Frasor #2, but not Frasor #1. I get how nice it was to dump Teahen, but I feel like we could have done better.

QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Jan 5, 2012 -> 11:36 AM) Is no one else already worried that we'll only get a "project" prospect and a throw-in? Yes, I'm terrified. Every single AA deal we've made has left me at least uneasy and at worst sad. I mean, KW hasn't "won" any of them. They haven't been disasters, but they've all been at least slightly in the Blue Jays favor.

QUOTE (flavum @ Jan 5, 2012 -> 11:32 AM) Couldn't some of these moves...Thornton, Crain, Floyd all happen in July just as easily and with more teams desperate to add? Call me crazy, but I think there's an outside chance the current roster can win. To me, they should give this roster a few months to play, and then if they're 6 games back in July and under-.500, trade anyone you can/want. I wonder if KW won't sign a couple scrap-heap veterans on one-year dealsin Feb to fill in the holes, like Francis or something. Seems to be a common move during these rebuilds. Makes the team not a TOTAL joke at least.

QUOTE (SOXOBAMA @ Jan 5, 2012 -> 11:30 AM) I hope to get Kyle Drabek... lol, no way man. We don't want him.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 5, 2012 -> 10:20 AM) Actually I was wrong. Its $12.5 million. $17 million/2 is $8.5 million. +$4 million buyout is $12.5 million. But the deadline is 2/3 of the way through the season, not half.

From Sickels 2012 pre-lims:

QUOTE (fathom @ Jan 5, 2012 -> 11:15 AM) Sox loved Asher during the draft scouting process. I'm not a huge fan of his, as his fastball has lost some velocity. I'd be fine with Deck, as finally we could get a GT guy to be a star after dealing with this bum from UGa at 2nd base. Yeah, I though I heard Asher had lost some stock. If we get him, I hope we don't pay what he would have commanded upon being drafted.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 5, 2012 -> 11:07 AM) Well that would give us the big name everyone has been hoping for. It was also put us into the 65-70 category for next year in all probability. Which, honestly, I'm fine with. A couple people around here have pointed out that this "rebuild" doesn't look like it needs to last more than a couple seasons because our big-money commitments will expire. I will gladly watch the kids lose 80-90 for a couple years to set this thing onto the right course.

QUOTE (striker @ Jan 5, 2012 -> 11:03 AM) @FarrellBall (1/3/2012) Source: #Jays seem to be pushing harder for Gavin Floyd over the last 48 hours.. McGuire seems to be the centerpiece to a potential trade. @FarrellBall (1/1/2012) Source: The #Jays have strong interest in SP Gavin Floyd from the #WhiteSox.. Rumblings of McGuire or Wojciechowski... So strange, I had this weird feeling yesterday about us ending up with Asher Woj.

QUOTE (hi8is @ Jan 5, 2012 -> 12:07 AM) Would the Reds take on 2/3rds of Rios if it meant getting Floyd for 2 B level pitching prospects? No chance, now that they got Latos. Would be an interesting move though. You'd have to figure KW would definitely get Cespedes then.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Jan 4, 2012 -> 04:36 PM) I assume you are baseing it on his injuries? That's a tough stance. I should have added that I can certainly understand the injury concern if that is your position. (not trying to put words in your mouth) It's just that injuries are part of the game and CQ sustained them with hard nosed and all out play. But see this is where sabermetric numbers help. It's great that he's kept his head high and tried hard, but respectable or not, he hits no homers when he's on the DL. This is where WAR is great -- you get to measure his contributions, injuries included, no guessing. We can project the amount of games he's likely to play, and measure his value in a counting stat. Rate stats are not accurate ways to measure the contribution of a guy who is going to miss 30 - 50 games.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Jan 4, 2012 -> 04:09 PM) OK. That is a valid way to look at it. But, I am not saying he chose a worse return. I am not sure, nor can anyone say I guess, what he might have got in Feb or March, or if he shouldn't have looked at signing CQ like he did John Danks. Those were options too. Maybe they know more about these prospects then meets the eye. It must have been a salary dump #1 and return #2? Yes, salary probably had to come first. Here's how I see it: JR tells KW that he has X amount of dollars for the payroll budget. Maybe KW argues with him a bit, but they eventually setle on a number. This year, that number is undoubtedly significantly lower than last year. So, somehow, KW has to make sure he gets the payroll below that number. That affects how he views his assets. So it wasn't like, "I want to trade CQ becasue I don't like him or I don't think he's good," but instead, "I have to cut payroll somehow. Where does the team have depth? Which guys make a lot of money? Looks like CQ is gonna make $7-8m and I have a pre-arb guy that I can replace him with. Okay, I guess I need to try to move CQ for the best I can." And at that point it's just weighing cost/benefit. So yes, it's KW's fault that the team sucks and thus must cut payroll, but it's not KW's fault that he couldn't get more out of CQ in this instance, because if he didn't have to cut payroll, there's no way he wouldn't choose a better prospect and pick up half of CQ's contract.

QUOTE (maggsmaggs @ Jan 4, 2012 -> 04:00 PM) It's such a huge risk. As good as this guy is supposed to be, the Cuban Leagues aren't close to Major League Baseball. What happens if he is too raw in Spring Training? We gonna have a $10-million man in AAA. I don't mind the $10m AAV so much as the 5-7 years of it. I mean, how easily could this guy be a mirror image of Alex Rios? I bet Rios could rake the Cuban league, too. It would be one thing if the guy was a prospect, but the fact that he's so close to his prime just magnifies the risk. I wonder if this Soler kid might not be a better target. He's younger but less accomplished, right?

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Jan 4, 2012 -> 03:46 PM) Glad to hear you know what my problem is I don't believe I ever suggested what Dunn and Rios were making is what CQ should make. I also believe CQ has produced at a higher level than Rios and Dunn did especially in 2011. Yes, CQ is oft injured, but he was our second best RBI man last year. All I see is how we have all these sabermetrics to go by and that means I am supposed to accept our players are worthless and should be traded for low level minor leaguers. Ok, if you say so... CQ fetched a low return because SD ate the whole contract, that's how it works. KW has to cut payroll, so he has no choice but to get total salary relief. It's stupid to assume that KW chose a crappy return over a better return. He's been shopping him for months, I have no doubt that this was about all that could be had if the Sox wanted to not pay ANY of the contract. This has NOTHING to do with sabermetrics.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 4, 2012 -> 03:50 PM) Viciedo was 19 when we signed him, this guy is 25. Right, so if the numbers were similar, you'd expect Cespedes to be garbage because he'd be fully developed. I guess I hope they are way better, of course. I wonder if some metrics/skills tend to translate from Cuba to the MLB more, such as walk rate or K rate or something.

QUOTE (bucket-of-suck @ Jan 4, 2012 -> 03:40 PM) Gonna a monster market for him. I know, it's just such a scary proposition. Does anyone know how his number compare to Viciedo's?

QUOTE (bucket-of-suck @ Jan 4, 2012 -> 03:23 PM) 5/55. KW is all about Cespedes these days. Ugh, so risky

Logan Morrison @LoMoMarlins Following I really hope Ozzies on-field instructions r easier 2 understand than his tweets. I literally have no idea what this dude is talking about..

Everything I've heard says that Cespedes is going to need some time in AA/AAA, even if it's only half a season. The situation works out perfectly then, because we'll have time to see what De Aza and Rios are going to do for a few months, then decide who sits when/if Cespedes is ready.

118 games is NOT a full season, and 130 games is barely a full season

QUOTE (flavum @ Jan 3, 2012 -> 11:18 AM) I think it will be: De Aza CF Ramirez SS Konerko 1B Dunn DH Rios LF Viciedo RF Pierzynski C Morel 3B Beckham 2B L-R-R-L-R-R-L-R-R That's best case scenario with Dunn and Rios doing ok. By the way, when the Sox brought Beckham up in 2009, do you think they probably had him penciled in as a 3-hole hitter by 2012? Kinda sad he's a 9-hole hitter still. If you buy into Tango's lineup research from The Book, Dunn makes more sense in the three hole and Konerko in the four hole. High K, high HR, high walk guys are perfect in the three hole because they see more double play situations than anyone else. Also, according to linear weights, doubles and homers tend to be more valuable in the fourth hole, so your better hitter should go there. Also, that gets us LRLR for the first four hitters, which is nice too. Edit: also, stolen bases play best in the 6th spot because of the tendency for 7/8/9 hitters to be singles guys. So I like Rios in the 6 hole as opposed to Viciedo.

Possible lineup if you think Dunn bounces back: 1 De Aza 2 Ramirez 3 Dunn 4 Konerko 5 Viciedo 6 Rios 7 Pierzynski 8 Beckham 9 Morel I'm not sure which OF I like best: LF De Aza CF Rios RF Viciedo LF Viciedo CF De Aza RF Rios LF Rios CF De Aza RF Viciedo Ironically, based on skillset alone (De Aza being the rangeist, Viciedo having the best arm, and Rios having an 'okay' version of each), the third option is probably the best defensive OF of the bunch, and yet is probably the least likely to occur. The only way it doesn't make sense is if you think Rios' lack of experience in LF will make him significantly worse there.