Eminor3rd

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jul 25, 2011 -> 02:22 PM) So you mean that AJ Pierzynski, Jermaine Dye, Bobby Jenks, Jose Contreras, Matt Thornton, Gavin Floyd, and Carlos Quentin all suck. I don't know if all of them were unhappy, but for whatever reasons, all of those players found struggles elsewhere and, through both the White Sox organization and the major league clubhouse, those players have found sustained success with the White Sox. Beyond that, I don't believe Rasmus is a "mental midget." I believe he has been completely thrown under the bus by Tony LaRussa and it is going to be impossible for him to get out of that. I'm hoping the Sox can make the best offer for him and get him, because he is an incredible talent who I believe would blossom with the White Sox. Exactly. He's showing all the signs of struggling to fit into a mold that TLR created for him. Being a power hitter at a speed position corroborates this. This seems to be one of the better buy-low opportunities around, in terms of the likeliness that he'd improve with a change of scenery. Then again, Ozzie may be no better than TLR...

Jonah Keri FanGraphs chat today:

QUOTE (lasttriptotulsa @ Jul 25, 2011 -> 02:11 PM) Who is this quality starter their going to get. Their really isn't much out there. Why would the Tigers adding a pitcher automatically give them the division, but the Sox adding a bat would give them nothing? What's the logic in that. The Tigers have been outscored by their opponents this year, but are somehow 7 games over .500. That kind of trend usually does not last a whole season. Edwin Jackson is available.

QUOTE (Knackattack @ Jul 25, 2011 -> 11:53 AM) You guys remember how "rebuilding on the fly" got us Danks, Gavin and Q!? When Kenny goes after these players he is usually right. I'm sorry but regardless of how good he is, an expensive LH reliever and a propsect or a rental starting pitcher and a prospect (not named viciedo in either case) is absolutely highway robbery for Colby Rasmus is he comes anywhere near his potential. And even if he burns out it is still the type of trade you can't be mad with because of the immense possible reward. LH power hitting speedy Cf'er? Yes please. This is important, not because KW is 'usually right' but because the past has no bearing on the future. Sometimes guys bust, sometimes they don't. They all have talent, and there's a reason they're considered prospects. The rest of Colby Rasmus' career has nothing to do with anyone else the Sox have acquired and busted. Right now, he's a guy with a ton of potential at a premium position, and we'd have to consider acquiring him. The team we have now isn't winning, and you have to make a gamble if you want to change that. Betting on Rasmus' talent and the health of Peavy isn't the worst risk, especially given that you have 4 solid, healthy guys in the rotation, meaning that if Peavy goes down, you only have to BS one spot in the rotation, which a lot of contending teams do regularly already. "But what if Peavy and another pitcher both go down? Pitchers get hurt a lot." Then you lose. That's the crappy luck that happens when good teams don't end up winning it all. You gotta put the best talent out there and hope it does what it's supposed to do. Sure, hindsight is 20/20, but you have to evaluate deals based on what you know at the time. Dunn is another example. I don't blame KW at all for signing Dunn and we all loved it at the time because there was no reason at all to expect this collapse. In hindsight, sure it sucks now, but that doesn't make it a bad move. KW filled our biggest hole with the single most consistent run producer in the majors outside of Pujols. There was always a chance it would blow up but it was very small. If he makes this trade, he's dealing a soon to be FA in a position of depth for a young, cost-controlled asset to fill one of our biggest holes. It might not work out, but it's worth the risk.

QUOTE (FlySox87 @ Jul 24, 2011 -> 11:21 AM) If we trade what I believe to be our best pure hitter since Frank Thomas and a guy who's only getting better (and I am notoriously cynical of prospects) for a guy with a .258 career batting average, I'm gonna quit. Well, no...I could never quit on this team. I'll probably just cry like a b****. But seriously, this is so stupid. No deal for Rasmus should include anything more than Thornton. If Viciedo goes, we're the stupidest team in baseball. I strongly disagree. Rasmus is more valuable, easily, and it gives KW the opportunity to justify keeping CQ, which is really nice considering we need to move him NOW if we don't want to pay him through arbitration. Moving Jackson+Viciedo for Rasmus allows us to still compete this year and set ourselves up well for next year (Rasmus/Rios/Quentin) I do agree that throwing Thornton in is too much.

Someone just told me Betemit to Tigers. Phew, I was afraid they were going to get a serious bat.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 14, 2011 -> 08:27 AM) If the Sox go cheap next year, Erik Bedard as a FA option wouldn't make me mad, esp. if Cooper is still here. Bedard's problem has never been pitching well, it's been pitching at all. Between him and Peavy, we'd need a competent 6th starter to cover 25 games.

QUOTE (mcgrad70 @ Jul 13, 2011 -> 10:58 PM) Excellent post...well done! How is that a good idea? Why would you sell low on players, who you have NO replacements for, and get nothing in return? If you're a GM and you just dump all the players that are having a bad season, you're going to run out of talent. CQ will never have more trade value then now, he's going to be too expensive next year, and we have a ready-made replacement. This team, minus Dunn and Rios, is still horrible. If you're losing, you have to replace players with players that give you a chance to win in the future.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 13, 2011 -> 05:25 PM) Why would we want Lowe over Pierre? Are we dumping Rios' contract on the Braves, too? There's just no way Lowe for Pierre makes sense for us....and some combo of Rios and/or Pierre for Lowe makes any sense for them. I think it would allow us to clear space for Viciedo, dump Jackson/Danks and still actually have a shot at the Central if we got hot. Again, if Dunn/Rios start hitting, this team could lose a couple pieces and still be the best in our division, especially if those pieces are pitchers.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 13, 2011 -> 05:16 PM) Gotta take a look at the contracts before you weigh Lowe against anyone. $15 mil total this year, $15 mil remaining next year. $21 million remaining through the end of 2012. This is true, and I think that would be the only thing that would make it worthwhile for ATL. I would assume that if we took him, it would be a definite goodbye to Buerhle, and might give us the depth necessary to dump Danks for a decent package.

QUOTE (elrockinMT @ Jul 13, 2011 -> 03:53 PM) I was looking over some of the rumor sites and I see where the Atlanta rumor included the possibility the Braves might be interested in Juan Pierre? Now I know we need a lead off guy, but apaprntly this auithor thinks the Braves do also. His question is whterh the Braves would be willing to give up the young Beachy or the more expensive Lowe for Pierre. Trading JP would open up the spot for Viciedo, who we would all like to see up with the big club. Quentin obviously has been mentioned, but I just can't see that as more than idle specualtion. The rumor mill even says the Sox may not be really looking at any moves. The struggles of Rios and Dunn have pretty much hamstrung our ability to make a trade. Plus if they could ever get it going that would be as good as two trades IMO. I know this is alot of rehash, but the idea of Atlanta maybe being willing to tak Juan Pierre was intersting as I hadn't heard that before. I think the JP thing came up mid-thread. It certainly would be hilarious if they did want him, and I'd take absolutely anything of value to get rid of him. I just don't see Lowe being less valuable to the Braves ROS than Pierre. Obviously we wouldn't get any A or even B pitching prospects for him. If they want to dump Lowe and/or McLouth though, I'm all for it, if for no other reason than it gives us more depth to dump some more valuable guys after our upcoming 8 game losing streak.

QUOTE (Thad Bosley @ Jul 13, 2011 -> 03:19 PM) I see what you are saying, but it's quite possible that despite how awful we've looked this season, we could conceivably find ourselves only 3.5 games out in the next week or so. And if that's the case, then I just can't see us making any moves that would even remotely appear to make us weaker vs. stronger for the remainder of this season. The only way I see trades of any useful veterans is if we take a nosedive in the standings between now and July 31st. I agree. I think KW's worst case scenario is that we remain 5-6 games out by July 31, instead of getting hot or completely falling apart. If the next ten days seals our fate, it'll be an easy decision to make.

QUOTE (Thad Bosley @ Jul 13, 2011 -> 02:50 PM) I'm assuming all of this talk and speculation about moving significant parts of our ballclub is predicated on the belief that the Sox will collapse in the next two weeks and be completely out of the race for the division by month's end. Because outside of that scenario, I personally don't see any useful veterans being moved for younger talent, especially unproven talent. That would completely fly in the face of and contradict the "ALL IN" propaganda of this year, and more importantly, it would signal another "White Flag" scenario. I cannot for one second imagine Jerry Reinsdorf allowing this organization to get anywhere near a situation whereby the Sox could be construed as throwing in the towel prematurely. The amount of criticism and abuse that was heaved on this organization after the "White Flag" trades of '97 was unbelievable. I could see, maybe, a trade of someone like Jackson for someone who could be viewed as instrumental in this year's race, but otherwise, I just don't see any of this happening, unless we fall out of the race in the next couple of weeks. Maybe it's my faulty memory, but I feel like '97 was totally different. 3.5 games out with lots of signs of life. This year's team hasn't played well at all for 95% of the season so far, and with a record payroll there are major implications in not dealing some guys. This team has the feel of a total failure, only because on paper they should be running away with the division. Of course, that also implies that you don't want to give up to soon because they could get hot, but it would be very very risky to hold onto Jackson/Quentin.

QUOTE (Wanne @ Jul 13, 2011 -> 01:57 PM) I almost think Paulie wouldn't mind a trade to the DBags at all...you'd probably have to take back a crappy contract (Zack Duke)...but their farm is rich. Problem is I think they really value their farm and don't really want to purge it. Realistically there's probably only 2 places he'd ok a trade to....AZ and the Angels. AZ needs a 1B badly, too. How much you want to bet we'd end up getting Brandon Allen back? Ha

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ Jul 13, 2011 -> 10:09 AM) Except we also know that Quentin is one of the few guys that seem capable of carrying this team offensively right now...we know his streakiness, and usually when you're about to give up on him, he'll put up another hot streak and look like the CQ of 2008 and you feel silly to even think about moving him. I don't know how we can say that we can't afford to pay Quentin $7.5-8 million when we want to pay Danks the same amount...and we're paying Juan Pierre the same as Carlos this year. Maybe you're right. Dunn/Rios/Peavy force us into this cost-cutting mode, but I think it's not sound decision-making unless the player we get back in return will be with the White Sox for at least 4-6 seasons. And we have to remember we're committed to paying AJ $6 million next year. Seems silly to be forced into giving up your second best player offensively (at USCF no less) when offense is the MAIN issue standing between the White Sox and being a competitive team again. We're not even close to being able to count on Dunn and Konerko's due for a return to mean AT SOME POINT, and Quentin's also due to get hot again...so I'm not buying that KW will actually pull the trigger unless it is for Beachy or a similar pitcher. I still maintain that we're pigeon-holed with Dunn/Rios, and if both of them continue to play like AAA veterans, we aren't going to win anyway, CQ or not. We have to assume/hope that they'll improve, we don't have any other choice. Trying to replace their production while they're still here is an exercise in futility. I think you need to put the pieces around them that will work when they work.

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Jul 13, 2011 -> 09:34 AM) The Sox basically gave away Ryan Sweeney. The only difference between Sweeney and Bourne is 40 or so steals. Trade Quentin for 40 steals? Uh, no. We need a Pierre upgrade...but it doesn't cost your best (or 2nd to best) power guy to gain that. And those guys who slap-hit, if their OBP falls much below .340, as it does for most of them on a regular basis (including Bourne), their value erodes. Everyone seems to be overlooking the fact that it doesn't make financial sense to keep Quentin past this season. Viciedo is the same player and he needs a home, and Quentin's All-Star season will make him very expensive in arbitration. In this instance, it makes a lot of sense to trade him while his value is at its peak. There are a number of teams that need corner OF bats for the stretch run and CQ is getting colder at the plate with each passing day. You have to take the context into consideration. You need to move the guy, and if you can fill a need like leadoff with a quality player, you have to do it. It isn't as simple as "is Quentin better than Bourne/Beachy/etc." in a vacuum

Extra base hits are good, regardless of whether or not the bases are empty. Every time Jose Reyes leads off with a triple, it makes it easier to drive him in. SLG is great everywhere, but OBP is more important in front of big hitters.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Jul 12, 2011 -> 04:17 PM) E-Jax (and some cash) for Rasmus. Rios for Lowe. Quentin for Beachy. Danks, Jordan Danks, Floyd to Pirates for prospects (preferably a 3B who can hit, to at least push Morel, a LHP, and a catcher. Or something of value). Throw in Flowers if that might get you a catching prospect. Resign Buehrle. Next year's rotation: SP - Buehrle SP - Humber SP - Sale SP - Beachy SP - Peavy/Santiago (when Peavy is on the DL) Next year's OF: LF - Rasmus CF - De Aza RF - Viciedo No offense, but NONE of that is realistic, except 'resign Buerhle.' ATL would not want both Rios and CQ. ATL would not give up two members of its rotation in the midst of a playoff run. STL would NEVER give us Rasmus for only Jackson. Floyd/Danks/Danks is straight out of a video game, PIT would never take that kind of salary on, and if they did they'd have to dump the entire farm which would be a ridiculous move. And the staff we'd end up with up there is a total rebuild of a staff.

QUOTE (Disco72 @ Jul 12, 2011 -> 04:00 PM) I agree, there probably isn't a high OBP, "traditional" leadoff hitter available. I would rather the Sox not spend ($ or talent) to acquire a traditional leadoff guy and just find someone with a high OBP that can handle the role. I'm all about that, IF we fire Ozzie so he doesn't insist on making whoever that person is steal every time.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jul 12, 2011 -> 03:56 PM) Brewers opening day payroll the year they traded for captain cheeseburger: $81 million. Pittsburgh's opening day payroll this year: $45 million. Even if they now have a little bit extra in the budget...they NEED to go with the long term plan. Deviating from it would be suicidal. Agreed. They need to go out and get someone like Carlos Pena - a clear upgrade one a reasonable expiring contract that costs next to nothing in talent.

QUOTE (Disco72 @ Jul 12, 2011 -> 01:38 PM) Like I said, he's a nice player, but despite the speed (stolen bases), I would really prefer a leadoff guy with an OBP better than that. As Balta mentioned before, it "feels" like another Lee for Podsednik, but it really doesn't make any sense for the Sox to do this. I would too, I just don't know that there's one available.

You're correct that OBP is a much better statistic when evaluation a leadoff hitter. But SLG is good in any position. Leadoff hitters that get onbase hitting doubles are better than those that get onbase hitting singles.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jul 12, 2011 -> 01:27 PM) I wouldn't trade Q alone for Rasmus, let alone with Jackson. That seems unbelievable to me, given the financial considerations and the upside and the injury risk.

QUOTE (Milkman delivers @ Jul 12, 2011 -> 02:30 PM) Not those moves alone, no. It'd have to be a sustained plan. And c'mon, do you really think Quentin will tear it up the rest of this year and next? The guy is erratic as hell, and there's a good chance he has a terrible year or that he breaks his wrist wiping his ass. Exactly. Paying Quentin now is paying for his peak performance while probably not getting 70% of it. It doesn't make financial sense when you have Viciedo to replace him on the cheap. Only logical move is to cash him in while he's most valuable.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Jul 12, 2011 -> 01:46 PM) None. That's why I said "creative" ways to trade. I think Jackson and Quentin for Rasmus would be idiotic. Jackson must be a headcase cause he still has good stuff (I guess Cooper can't fix this one) and Quentin is a good player. You're incorrectly evaluating Jackson and Quentin because you aren't taking their contexts into consideration. Jackson has to go, period, because we will lose him at the end of the year, and we have 5 starters already. He is a borderline type B right now, so you try to trade him for more value than a supplemental pick. To get max value, we have to trade him. Quentin is good, but very streaky and inconsistent, and will make $8m next year. We have a younger, cheaper, high-upside replacement in Viciedo in AAA. It doesn't make sense to pony up for CQ in this case. I'm not saying these are bad players, I'm saying that circumstances make it a good idea to move them for other things we need. A power-hitting, high-upside CF like Rasmus would be a great grab for us. No one wants Rios without us eating the contract, so it makes no sense to sell low on him. We can move him to RF and put Viciedo in LF next year. Viciedo/Rasmus/Rios is better and cheaper than De Aza/Rios/Quentin