Eminor3rd

I've only played Baseball Mogul, I've always wondered if I wanted to get into OOTP.

Just some January reading: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/a...d-gis-new-digs/ Adam Dunn and His New Digs by Matt Klaassen - January 5, 2011 When Adam Dunn signed with the White Sox earlier this offseason for four years and $56 million dollars, I generally agreed with those like Dave Cameron who saw it as perhaps a slight overpayment, but reasonable given that Dunn will be moving to a park that favors his prodigious power and to a team and league that will finally allow him to spend most of his time at his natural position — designated hitter. I generally still agree with the assessment. However, there are some things worth watching as Dunn begins his in Chicago in relation to his shift in league, position, park, and his recent plate approach. What better to write about on Hall of Fame Announcement Day than a player who signed more than a month ago? Dunn is a force on offense, and all decent projections will reflect that. There are a lot of “moving parts” involved in making those adjustments, however, and while more sophisticated projection systems have ways of dealing with many (though not all) of those factors, the more of those parts that are involved the more dicey things might seem. So rather than citing a projection, let’s go over some of these factors. To begin with the most general points, Dunn is slated to be a full-time designated hitter for the first time in his career. Much has been made over Dunn’s defensive skills, or, more precisely, the lack thereof, so I won’t go over that ground again. Suffice it to say that the move to DH certainly won’t hurt his overall value. However, it is worth noting that while some players take to the DH just fine, there is evidence that most players have difficulty hitting off the “bench,” as it were, so there is a possibility that Dunn’s offensive production will be depressed a bit by the move. We don’t know how he will adjust as he’s never DHed full-time before (having spent his entire prior career in National League), so for now we’re better off assuming that he’s like “most players” in relation to how being a DH will effect his hitting. The second general point is related — the move to the American League. Perhaps Dunn will adjust well, perhaps he won’t. Pitching in the American League is generally considered to be stronger than in the National League, and that might be reason to temper our expectations for Dunn’s hitting going forward as well. Both of these are general points, and neither are enough to say that Dunn won’t be a very good hitter for the White Sox, but they are both points that have to be considered. There are also specific curiosities with regard to Dunn’s hitting. Dunn has averaged about 30 batting runs above average per season on offense since 2008, which is obviously quite valuable. A closer look at the details reveals, however, a real shift. After posting a .394 wOBA in 2009, Dunn dropped back down to a .379 in 2010 (his lowest wOBA since 2006), which might be missed by simply looking his batting runs above average, which are adjusted to the lower 2010 run environment. Yes, offensive value has to be measured against the run environment in which is occurs, but in Dunn’s case, there are specific reasons why this seems to be happening which may indicate a change in his hitting abilities and/or style. Dunn’s impressive ISO, home run/flyball rates, and Hit Tracker data all indicate that his monstrous home run power remains intact. It is his other two true outcomes, walks and strikeouts, that grab the attention. Dunn’s 11.9% 2010 walk rate is still above average, but for him, it was significantly lower than any other season in his career (his overall career walk rate is 16.3%). Not coincidentally, 2010 also featured easily the lowest on-base percentage of Dunn’s career at .356. Again, that isn’t bad, but for a guy who has never hit .270, walks are a big chunk of his offensive value. One season has to be weighted against the rest, of course, but it is also true that walk rates generally stabilize more quickly than other rates. Moreover, while Dunn’s walks in the past have generally balanced out his strikeouts, his lower walk rate has not been accompanied by a lower K rate. On the contrary, he struck out at a higher rate in 2010 than in any other season of his career. Now, strikeouts are not the end of the world in themselves, but in this case it might indicate a change in Dunn’s approach. Indeed, the decline in plate discipline is well-illustrated by the fact that while Dunn’s strikeouts looking went down in 2010, his increase in swinging strikeouts (and thus overall strikeout rate) went up. Dunn (a generally patient hitter) swung at more pitches in 2010 than ever before. This was not, however, accompanied by an increase in contact, as his contact rate in 2010 was (wait for it…) the worst of his career (at least since 2002 when contact rates were tracked by the data sources for this site). So Dunn has been more aggressive about swinging the bat than in the past, a relative shift from his past “take and rake” style, but he hasn’t made more contact. It seems to have hurt him through his lower on-base percentage and thus wOBA. In some respects, it might have helped him in his time with the Nationals, as his .267 batting average in 2009 and .260 in 2010 were some of the highest of his career, aided by career high averages of .324 and .329 on balls in play during those seasons. The increased number of non-home run hits did somewhat offset the lower walk rate in 2010, in particular. This is where the issue of parks comes in. As has rightly been pointed out, Dunn’s new home park in Chicago should play right into his power game, as (according to the component factors at Stat Corner) the White Sox’ park boasts a 122 home run component factor for left-handed hitters as opposed to the Nationals’ 94. That should help Dunn. However, when looking at balls in play, note that Washington’s park also has more favorable park factors for left-handed hitters with regard to balls in play (singles, doubles, and triples), which may have factored into Dunn’s better BABIP performance during that time. Overall, Washington’s home park is slightly more favorable to left-handed batters than Chicago. This isn’t to say that Dunn’s still-heavily power-based game won’t be helped more overall by the move to the South Side, but there is reason to believe that his recent (relative) BABIP bonanza won’t continue. I should say again that this isn’t a specific projection. Adam Dunn is a good hitter who should help the White Sox contend in 2010. But there are a number of factors to consider other than simply how favorable his new home will be to his number of dingers (or “dongers,” in Carson Cistulli’s inimitable jargon), from his own recent lower walk rates and likely decline on balls in play due to the park to more general issues with shifting to DHing full-time in the American League. I don’t know what will happen, but it will be interesting to observe.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 5, 2011 -> 03:13 PM) If they plan on him being the backup CF we may as well just throw in the towel. Unfortunately that's probably Lilli. I can see where this doesn't work, especially if you're gonna try to keep both Morel and Viciedo on the 25 man. At this point, I'd rather just release Teahen than start the season with him.

I think they're planning on Teahen as the 4th OF

Duchscherer at $3m. I like that.

Is 2011 'make or break' for Ozzie? Hopefully.

I'd REALLY like to see them work the hell out of him (Viciedo) at 3B. Doesn't seem like an impossible position for a world-class athlete to learn to play adequately. Seems like he has a decent arm, and I'll take his lack of range if it means he won't make errors, especially with Alexei's plus range next to him.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Dec 27, 2010 -> 05:22 PM) And I don't think I'm overrating him being blocked at multiple spots at all. Smart GMs will milk that for as much as it's worth. Right. The solution to that is, of course, getting more than one needy GM into a bidding war. Don't know how good KW is at doing that.

http://thesportsbanter.blogspot.com/2010/1...stery-team.html

QUOTE (iamshack @ Dec 20, 2010 -> 12:29 AM) Yeah, ultimately, we'll just have to wait and see. I just don't personally like Escobar or Cain, for that matter. But I've been wrong many, many times before FWIW, I kind of view Odirizzi as the centerpiece in this trade.

QUOTE (3E8 @ Dec 19, 2010 -> 10:45 PM) Less foul territory means more balls end up in the stands. This lowers potential ABs (denominator of BABIP calculation) while at the same time gives hitter another chance at a hit (numerator of BABIP calculation) or a BB. Players are not positioned to try and make extra outs in foul ground for stadiums with more of it. Even if 'balls in play' went up at a higher rate than ABs, that wouldn't have any effect on how many of those 'balls in play' became hits. There would be just as many additional outs on balls in play as there were additional hits. The effect of fewer foul ball outs would be a larger sample size, not a change in ratio.

lol @ Greinke http://hfboards.com/showthread.php?t=833098 http://www.thedashow.com/mp3/da-greinke.mp3 Accidentally funny guy.

Yeah, Fuentes is going to want to be and be paid like a closer, too. I'm a big Breslow fan, that's a good idea.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Dec 19, 2010 -> 05:04 PM) Andrus at least shows some ability to hit for average, draw a walk, and steal bases. And he's more than a year younger than Escobar. One thing to note about Escobar -- which I was well aware of because he was on my fantasy team last year -- is that very early in the season he got dropped down to the bottom of the order. That's significant because the Brewers manager was quoted somewhere as saying that he absolutely hates basestealing at the bottom of the order because it's too big of a risk for a low chance at a payoff, or something like that. Sure enough, Escobar only attempted 14 stolen bases all year despite playing in 145 games and accumulating 552 PA. All signs point to him having elite speed, and I think it's safe to say that if he were at the top of the order, he'd have a ton more than 10 steals. Anyway, I agree that I'd rather have Andrus, if only for his better plate discipline. But I just wanted to point out that the stolen base total from last year is deceptive.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 18, 2010 -> 01:15 PM) Come the trade deadline, Sale might be a guy who could be a headliner for Greinke. I can't see us absorbing the salary at this point, can you? QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Dec 18, 2010 -> 01:19 PM) That would definitely signal the end of the Mark Buehrle era. Unless this is the case.

QUOTE (Harry Chappas @ Dec 18, 2010 -> 09:46 AM) Brewers, White Sox and Cardinals should all be in on this. The White Sox should move Danks to the Yanks for the prospects the Royals would like and then add Viciedo or Morel. A three way deal gets you around the NTC to a degree. The LAST thing the Royals need is Viciedo or Morel. They have Butler, Moustakas, Hosmer, Ka'aiuhe, and even Wilson Betemit to man the corner infield for about the next 7 years.

QUOTE (Jordan4life @ Dec 18, 2010 -> 01:04 PM) Thing is from what I've heard the Royals want premium pitching prospect(s) back. I don't think they're looking for a catcher. Not as a centerpiece anyway. Yeah, I've heard that too. Yankees will no doubt dangle Joba. Probably not what you or I would consider premium SP, but we ARE talking about Dayton Moore here.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 17, 2010 -> 08:48 PM) If they give up that catcher Montero they probably have the ammo to get it done...but the issue is, they also want him in their lineup this year. So they'd wind up having to make themselves worse to do it at a different position, and Russell Martin isn't going to be an exciting option there right now. They signed Martin with the expectation that he'll bounce back and with the intent to use him as a bridge to one of their prospects ( http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/base...kees.martin.ap/ ). They have three good catching prospects right now (Montero, Romine, Cervelli), Montero is just the best. I wouldn't be surprised to at all to see any of those three get traded for ZG. They're extremely deep in young catching right now and it would make all the sense in the world for them to unload some of that depth for big-time pitching, which is by far their biggest problem.

Swing at the first pitch! The Twins throw strikes early in the count, every single time. Guys like Dunn need to feast on this, even if it means swinging at a first pitch breaking ball that lands right in the center of the plate. Once they get ahead, they nibble and force groundballs. I think we need to square up on stuff early.

I think Brian Cashman knows that everyone thinks he's desperate, and that he won't make any dumb deals.

QUOTE (scenario @ Dec 14, 2010 -> 05:15 PM) Just revisited the thread and saw my Buehrle/Rasmus comments stirred up a few responses. I've read what was said. Doesn't change my point of view. In my book, "can't miss outfield prospects" who strike out in 30% of their MLB at-bats are more of a commodity than proven left-handed starters with career sub-4 ERAs (in the AL no less) who can throw 200 innings a year. You don't like it? Fire me when I become GM. Lol. Yeah, with all due respect, I don't see how anyone could even consider trading Rasmus for Buerhle. Big time, cost-controlled, MLB ready hitting prospect for $14m declining LHP with pedestrian stuff? When you don't have a need for starting pitchers? I mean, come on, even if STL needed a veteran pitcher, why wouldn't they just get someone cheaper and better?

QUOTE (WCSox @ Dec 14, 2010 -> 01:59 PM) Could be a combination of adjusting mechanics and something clicking mentally. Guys like Lee, Buehrle, and Danks - who are all somewhat lacking in raw stuff - seem to excel because they've mastered those two things. I wouldn't say Lee is lacking in raw stuff, after watching his postseasons the past couple years, anyway.

Wow, curveball.

QUOTE (jaxsoxfan @ Dec 10, 2010 -> 10:28 PM) Someone on here mentioned Pittsburgh speculation? What about for Doumit and Hanrahan? "No Mitt" Doumit? I guess he can't be worse than TCQ defensively, can he?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/ange...cott-downs.html