Eminor3rd

Speculation presented as speculation is not met with derision. Speculation presented as fact is rightly met with derision.

I actually don't see it as "moral" at all. Bullshit is just annoying.

Speculation presented as speculation is not met with derision. Speculation presented as fact is rightly met with derision.

I think most of this is right -- but the fact that you take the (defensible) premise of "there are systems in place that prevent us from proving the use of PEDs" as evidence that "most players are using PEDs and I know who they are" is the crux of the issue.

It's insane to me how strongly people believe in speculation that results from personal bias/prejudice. The lack of need for anything resembling objective evidence in our culture is just depressing.

MLB home office should have to give up draft picks for this

This is a fact. You don’t hear about it because it doesn’t need to be broadcast via the traditional mass media channels you see your sports on. It’s all happening online, but it’s there. Some of these leagues are selling out arenas. Blizzard is starting to build its own arenas instead of renting existing ones. The corporate ad revenue is growing very fast.

And then decrease because Sano ISNT on the 3B bag.

I imagine he’s still gonna be down in Charlotte.

We indeed all get to have opinions, yes.

Maybe it was obvious, maybe not. I’ve read reports that say a lot of guys didn’t know the extent of what was happening, and I’ve read reports that say at least some of them knew exactly what was happening and it didn’t feel wrong, based on what they thought was normal in the MLB. But regardless of how clear the information was, you’re ignoring my larger point, which is the extent that you are comfortable making someone personally responsible for taking substantial personal risks to be a whistleblower for a baseball game. There is a very real relational power imbalance between and employer and an employee. I’m all for respecting someone willing to put his future at risk for the sake of a moral claim on a game’s rules, but I’m way far away from demanding it as standard operating procedure. It’s very easy for us to act all righteous from our computer screens when we never had anything to lose.

You’re making a ton of assumptions and generalizations about what specific people know. From what I’ve read, all teams are always trying to steal signs, some players obsess over it. Some guys want in on it and others don’t. If you weren’t involved in setting anything up, and the coaching staff was understandably trying to be as nondescript as possible, and you never hit and so nothing needs to be explained to you, how would you know that what was happening involved obviously illegal electronic means that clearly push past the line, as opposed to all the similar but grey stuff that’s been happening around you the rest of the time? Maybe it seems fishier than normal, or maybe not because you’re trying to focus on how the get the next three guys out.

One thing a Frank Thomas did NOT do is immediately out his teammates, which is what this would require. Look, I’d love to hear that one of the players stepped up and confronted the manager about this, and I’d call that player a hero. But I think that’s way easier said than done, and we have to keep in mind that many of the players, and probably especially the pitchers, knew less about what was happening than we all do now at the end of the investigation. So not only are you challenging your boss directly, but you’re probably doing it on a hunch. Trying to find an analog here: Assuming you aren’t in finance, if you found out that some people in your finance department at work were likely doing something to avoid paying corporate taxes, and you weren’t in any way responsible for that department, would you do anything about it? Maybe tell your boss? Would that change if you knew your boss was in on it? I mean there’s a huge range of things you could do, from quitting to telling the IRS. But they all involve you probably looking for a new job. And maybe you would do something like that, but it’s a lot to ask of someone who has a family and maybe doesn’t understand what’s going on completely. Im just saying that things were likely less black and white for the players on the periphery and we have to understand and acknowledge the costs of action if we are going to expect action to be taken.

What would you do if you were in that situation? If you’re Dallas Keuchel, a pitcher who does not directly participate in any way in the sign stealing but is aware that it happens, what would you do? Are you going to expose your entire team midseason? After the season? Get your co-workers in trouble, some of them fired, destroy your relationship with your employer? All for something that may or may not help, that you know some form of is going on other places too? At the very least you’re guaranteeing your days in Houston are over. Maybe that means a trade you can’t control. Maybe you make long term enemies in the game. Maybe you take your teammates down with you. Maybe you torpedo you’re chance to win . And if you are only aware of it peripherally, as I imagine the pitchers probably only were it may very well have seemed like more of a grey area than we now know that it was. Im not condoning what was done at all, but I absolutely believe that lots of players weren’t okay with it but didn’t feel comfortable with the consequences of blowing a whistle in a environment where they have to continue to work. When your bosses authorize something, there’s a real cost to opposing it. It’s not really fair to put that burden on the players, who often have families to think about. Unfortunately, that complications means that we can’t reliably identify and this cannot punish the players that were active participants.

Came to complain at the Base Wars snub. Then realized that’s Base Wars made the list. Bravo!

I mean you're right about not living up to the hype, and I understand some people don't love WAR, but it's literally 14.9 career fWAR (including a 4.3 fWAR season in 2011) for Maybin vs. -0.2 career fWAR (including an embarrassing failed attempt at Japan) for Milledge. I guess my point is that Maybin has had a useful MLB career as a 3rd/4th OF who could have been much more if he could be healthy, whereas Milledge was nothing but failures plus being a clubhouse cancer. I think Maybin has been underrated because his expectations were so high. He's a real decent player who would be really high floor if you could depend on him staying on the field.

Except he ended up with just an astronomically better career.

Twice? Maybe

Maybin may not be good platoon partner for Mazara, but he would be a direct full-time upgrade...

What part of this has anything to do with sabermetrics?

This

Statistically, the only difference between last year and a normal Kimbrel year was a comically high HR rate. Still striking a ton of dudes out, and his walk rate has been that high in years where he finished with ERAs in the 2's. Cubs might give him up to get out of his salary, but they aren't trading him for worse pitchers just as a change of scenery.

Just a heads up, this has been misreported. Those numbers are from the npb minor leagues. The guy got a cup of coffee at the top level.

I feel like “bold prediction” needs to be in the thread title.

His BABIP will go down, but as long as his hard hit rates remain elite and his speed doesn’t go away, he should still be able to maintain a BABIP significantly higher than normal. If he is hitting reasonably well, I don’t see any reason that .350 or so isn’t a reasonable expectation.