Eminor3rd

Puig is exactly the type of guy who fails hard in NPB (prima donna, no discipline, doesn't respect coaches) and is in exactly the type of situation which creates failures in NPB (I'm not getting what I think I'm worth so I'll go trash this weak league and show all of you -- I don't need to make any adjustments at all). Fifteen years ago, some team would make a huge mistake and pay him a bunch of money. Nowadays, teams scout as much for fit as they do for talent, and IMO I think they'll know to stay away at the type of price that would make him do it.

Sorry I missed. I would argue that looking at it flat IS the projected version. But I see now that other people have pulled up the projection tables.

Why would you use 2019 numbers instead of projections?

Charlotte.

I'm guessing whoever suggested it is thinking of him as a hard-platoon for Mazara.

Nothing else to buy though, man. Having missed on the big pitchers, it's good to keep something in the tank to augment over the next few seasons.

Agreed. Wheeler was the dude.

We've both been posting here for a long time -- do you really think I'm not putting in the time to try to understand the rationale of these moves?

ZING! Got me!

I'm referring to Keuchel, yes, and the potential of signing Castellanos as "back-against the wall, win now" moves, but not the others. I've said in previous threads that the Grandal signing is fine if "it doesn't stop them from spending on high-end pitching also" and I actually argued somewhere that Mazara was a "rebuilding move." I have been critical of most of the moves made this offseason in one way or another, so I can see why you would do it, but you're mis-attributing what I said to other subjects here.

I can't even remember what I was arguing, honestly. Seems like I was trying to say Zack Collins wasn't a bust yet.

https://tenor.com/view/astros-mchugh-wtf-gomez-houston-gif-5791200

So, batting average? 2016, High A: 151 wRC+ 2017: High A/AA: 130 wRC+/166wRC+ 2018: AA: 128 wRC+ 2019: AAA/MLB: 140 wRC+/77 wRC+ Looks like a dude who crushed the minors and struggled in 100 PA in the Majors. Weird because it took Nick Castellanos over 1,000 PA in the majors before he recorded an above average offensive line.

Generally speaking, you're right. But I think the exception to this is when the player needs to see MLB pitching to develop further.

The guy put up SUBSTANTIALLY above average offensive numbers at literally EVERY stop in the minors: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/zack-collins/19181/stats?position=C/DH What are you seeing that suggests Collins has "proved he cannot hit" in the minors?

I think that works in OOTP, but realistically, and ESPECIALLY with this front office, if they go get a guy, that means they're going to give that guy the job. And the major problem is that I can't even remember the last time the White Sox developed a guy that made a relatively seamless transition to the MLB from the minors -- all their guys have to struggle and either failed or eventually figured it out at the MLB level. Is that a drafting issue, or a player development issue? Maybe it's just more common than I think it is because I don't watch other teams as closely as I do the White Sox -- but regardless, the White Sox need to give the prospect ABs for him to figure out how to hit at the MLB level. With a highly paid incumbent, I don't know how that ever happens unless the incumbent is so bad that he doesn't even deserve playing time. I acknowledge that NC is almost certainly better hitter than Collins in 2020, and probably a better hitter than Vaughn in 2021. But when you have multiple holes to fill and a "limited" budget to fill it, and when your player dev/drafting is mediocre enough that you only hit on your top talents, I feel like you need to spend your money filling the holes instead of trying to get a 1 or 2 win improvement on guys you already have. These moves reek of desperation. The White Sox went into this offseason with literally $15.333M committed to 2020. No-brainer arbitration bumped that to $37M, and Abreu bumped it up a bit more. We're being asked as fans, to be okay with Gio Gonzalez (Steamer projects 1.1 fWAR for 2020) and Dallas Keuchel (Steamer projects 2.4 fWAR for 2020) as the answer to our pitching problem. When 5 and 6 win pitchers were available and were bought by franchises that were up against the luxury tax! We traded a prospect for Nomar Mazara (Steamer projects 1.5 fWAR) with better options (including NC!) available in FA, and now we're going to pay a 2-3 win DH to block Zack Collins. These are inefficient, back-against-the-wall, win-now moves, and this is exactly the strategy that got the White Sox in enough deep shit to require a rebuild in the first place. I don't hate these players, I just want the franchise to start acting like a successful franchise. To do the things that everyone can see the elite franchises do. ESPECIALLY because we've all had to put up with bullshit the past three years in order to give them that chance.

You mean, stop being objective? I got shit on for years for defending the front office during the rebuild. Now that they've stopped making sense, I've argued the other way. I'm going to root for the team to do things that makes sense, period. I'm not gonna "be positive" or "be negative" just for the hell of it.

Alright, asshole... So what is it? Is he like JD Martinez or not? Is my "reading comprehension" a problem, or did you just say two completely opposite things? If he isn't as good, why did YOU say that he reminded you of JD? If it's about doubles instead of homers, why did YOU compare them using ONLY HOMERS? The only reason I said "not trying to be a dick" is because you argued using numbers that made SO little sense, I was afraid you'd be embarrassed when I pointed it out.

Right -- it makes no sense to look at ANY player and suggest that he is likely to end up like a historic outlier like JD Martinez. Guys like Martinez are the exception, not the rule. It COULD happen, but you COULD also win the lottery tomorrow.

Why? What makes you think that of Castellanos, as opposed to every other player in the league? How many guys in the last 20 years or so have made the kind of leap that JD Martinez made at the end of their 20s? I can think of one: Jose Bautista. And both of those guys were oversized, fringey, slap-hitting utility players that made swing changes to turn into highly disciplined, uppercut pull monsters. That doesn't describe Castellanos at all.

That just makes it worse! JD hit more homers in 200 AB than NC did in 400 AB! In the same ballpark WITHOUT the juiced ball! I'm not saying NC can't hit or that he wouldn't improve the lineup at all -- I'm saying that lots of people on this board are suggesting he's some kind of transcendent hitter that should be added despite the fact that he doesn't fit anywhere on the current 25 man at all, and that's just not true. YOU are the one that compared him to JD. He's not even close to what JD was when he was in Detroit or even now, in his mid-30's in Boston. Do you mean he reminds you of JD in Houston, before his swing change? When he was a sub-replacement level opposite field line drive hitter? I don't think that ifts either, but maybe you think Castellanos needs a swing change? I guess that could work -- but do you really think we should take a year of development away from Collins and possibly block Vaughn to spend $15-20M on a guy who we think might break out if he makes a swing change? I'm not trying to be a dick, I'm just incredulous at how many people on the board are treating this guy like a superstar.

Wait. JD Martinez hit 29 homers in 232 ABs, an increase of nearly 100%. Castellanos hit 16 homers in 212 ABs, and increase of less than 50%, in a year when FOUR teams broke the all-time homerun record at the same time, where the ball is juiced to the point that the MLB is practically lawyering up to deny involvement, the most bonkers homerun year EVER, including the steroid era. Even OUTSIDE of context, that's TWICE as many homers. It's not even close. When you consider the jucied ball, it's way worse. He had a 167 wRC+ that year -- Castellanos just had a 128 wRC+. Plus, two years prior, in Martinez's most recent full/healthy season, he hit 38 bombs, all while playing for Detroit. How is that comparable? Martinez was two tiers better than Castellanos.

What? Tigers JD Martinez was WAY better than Castellanos, in a WAY worse offensive environment. Go look at the numbers. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jd-martinez/6184/stats?position=OF https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nicholas-castellanos/11737/stats?position=3B/OF EDIT: The guy is basically Billy Butler https://www.fangraphs.com/players/billy-butler/7399/stats?position=1B/DH

If Collins and Vaughn were in the lower minors, I might be able to get onboard with that idea. But for Collins, at least, that time is now. For Vaughn, that time COULD be as early as September, but very likely 2021 barring an unexpected setback. And while Castellanos and Abreu are both decent hitters, their contracts are at-best “break even” in the $15-20M range, so you can’t really expect to move one of them for anything much. And neither are good enough to warrant this type of shuffling and the inefficiency that comes with it. As good a contact hitter as Castellanos can be, his on base skills are fairly mediocre, and he’s never even hit 30 homers in an era where KETEL MARTE just hit 30 homers. That’s not really all that much to make up for being a base clogger and a butcher in the field. His “fantastic platform year” was worth 2.8 fWAR, and steamer project 1.6 for 2020. Even if you take the over on that, how much better is that, really, than what Collins would put up? A win? Maybe a touch more on the high end. But then what if Collins breaks out? Now he’s a similar offensive contributor who can also catch. You’re throwing that chance away for a marginal upgrade at a cost of probably $15-20M over the next several years. Its just a really inefficient use of resources for a team that has given itself a very narrow path to success with its limited budget.

And that money is starting to add up, and that severely limits what the Sox are going to “be able” to do the next several years as guys get hurt or underperform. And, knowing that the money is “limited,” I just can’t believe it makes sense to spend a good chunk of it on a guy that blocks two of your best prospects when they are both on the cusp of the MLB. Why not spend it on a position you don’t already have filled by several guys?