Eminor3rd

They closed that loophole

I like the dude; I dont think he’d come cheap

If they are freeing up money, that presumably includes letting Gardner go to free agency. Given how injury prone all of their outfielders have been, if Gardner goes, they NEED Tauchman, because like Gardner, he can fake CF in a pinch much better than Frazier can. Catcher isn't really unclear -- it's Gary Sanchez and Kyle Higashioka, if Romine isn't resigned First base isn't really unclear -- it's Luke Voit and Mike Ford.

Yeah, fair take, unfortunately.

EE on a one year deal might make a lot more sense than JDM on a four or five year deal. You wouldn’t lock yourself into $100m for a declining player, and you leave the opportunity for Andrew Vaughn to play in 2021. JDM 2019: 139 wRC+ EE 2019: 129 wRC+

This team is slowly turning into the fucking Orioles

They didn’t get Corbin because his price exceed what they thought his value was. Cashman said it at the time and reiterated it the other day. Which is how the White a Sox can get Cole. We seem to assume that we can’t have because the Yankees will always outbid us. That’s not true — the Yankees will bid as high as they believe he’s worth to them. The White Sox can beat that if they want to.

Trust me, the Yankees will get what they need to get. People seem to have this conception that the Yankees like to spend money simply because they have so much of it, and so it then follows logically that if it looks like they’ll run out, that’s when they’ll stop. Yet year in and year out, everyone seems baffled at the end of the offseason either because the Yankees spent way more than expected or way less. But when you look at it, the pattern is really extremely simple: When have the Yankees spent a ton in free agency? When they’ve needed to in order to meet the needs of their roster. Why didn’t they spend on Machado last year when they could have? Because they didn’t need a third baseman or a shortstop. Why not Harper? Because they didn’t need a corner OF/DH. They needed pitching, and they went and got it. Cashman said at the beginning of the offseason that he needed two starters. Come opening day, he had Paxton and Happ. One was a trade, one was a signing, but he got them. Given Sabathia’s retirement and German’s likely suspension/dismissal, this offseason is probably going to be the same. The Yankees are going to get a couple starters, and as usual, all available options will be on the table for them. This year, that may mean snatching one of the big free agents.

The problem with the White Sox and the trade market isn’t that they don’t have the necessary ammo, it’s that they still need all of that ammo for their own team. There’s talent, but there’s not a surplus of talent, when you consider the holes still on the roster. What they DO have in surplus is (theoretical) payroll space. That’s why they need to use free agency to get better.

Yankees are gonna get pitching.

Someone please add to the megathread, I don’t think I can.

This ^

Remember Daniel Hudson?

Well, the whole thread between me and Cali was based on me saying I didn't think Moustakas was a fit.

Good catch; point remains the same, but slightly less so.

I would argue that Mike Moustakas also fits into that tier, which is what I was getting at.

That argument holds water if you believe that a player is going to produce the average of his entire career, for better or for worse, in every season going forward. But I don't think anyone actually thinks that. At least, those who do projections for a living don't. ZiPS, the projection system used by both ESPN and FanGraphs, and one that is notoriously considered "conservative" by the general public, projected Machado for 5.7 fWAR going into 2019: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-san-diego-padres/

This is certainly correct if you think Machado is only a 3 win player going forward and that Moncada's breakout was the result of the position change. I, personally, don't think either is true, but I can't prove it either way so it isn't worth arguing. If Machado now projects as a 4-5 win player going forward instead of a 5-6 win player, and Moncada still takes the strides he takes to become a 4-5 win guy himself as a second basemen, I'd argue the team is in a much better position and still has room to add significant pieces without cracking into top payroll range. But the real problem I have is this: even IF Machado turns into a bust, there was no way to know that at the time. At the time, it represented one of the biggest opportunities in history to get safe, elite production for an entire competitive window. And the money was NOT spent then. Sure, it didn't go away, but I have to wonder now how much of it was ever really there in the first place. And whatever opportunities exist to spend it now are nearly always going to be lesser opportunities. Like, Cole now is the prize. But a 31-year old Cole is absolutely a worse buy than a 26-year old Machado was. The upside is similar but the floor is SO much lower. Injury could make him near replacement level at any moment. Every likes to shit on Machado's down year but it was still worth 3.5 wins. But, all that said: you're right. What I'm proposing is risky. I just think it's the only way this team, given its restraints, can every really get over the top. At least, without a tremendous amount of luck.

Not a perpetual rebuild at all, more like a riskier but higher upside free agency strategy. I'm proposing putting more eggs into fewer baskets, because that's how to get elite talent. Then, when 60% of your prospects disappoint you, it isn't so bad if they are 1-2 WAR players instead. Yes, it can fuck you up fast if an elite guy gets hurt or busts, but the only way that really any team has been able to mitigate that type of risk has been to spend a ton of money, and this team just isn't gonna do that. Spreading the risk makes sense, but not when all you get is slightly below average to slightly above average players to show for it. The Melky Cabreras and Jeff Samardzijas of the world have just as much bust potential as the Gerrit Coles and Manny Machados -- they just don't have the same upside. And your farm is much more likely to produce three Melkys than it is to produce one Machado.

I think this team CAN afford a Strasburg/Cole, it just isn't going to be possible for them to get 3-4 mid-level free agents on top of it, which is their normal "competitive plan." Given the budgetary constraints, that's why it's so critical for them to develop as many of these players as possible, even if many of them don't turn into stars. They need to find their role players so that they have the money for the difference makers. It requires a change in strategy for the front office. Until the Machado debacle, I thought they were on the right track. That was such a clear blunder, that my confidence is shaken.

I wonder if JR is ignoring this because he believes a draft will be in place sooner rather than later. As one of the league’s primary driving forces in colluding to drive player earnings down, he would certainly be in a position to know.

You guys have to understand that when a team does this, it’s because they’re not making ends meet. “Should have stuck with” isn’t really a great option, because it wasn’t working. Granted, the name isn’t what made them fail in the first place, but short a new ballpark, there aren’t really any better ways to sell a bunch of new merchandise and get your brand to the forefront of the local news cycle for a while.

Yeah, I mean. They will probably fail. Again. I guess I’m just always going to be rooting for/arguing for what I believe is the best possible strategy, even if the team is likely to do something less.

No one is “relying” on Collins, but you need to give your players a chance to play if they’re ever going to contribute. If you aren’t willing to do that, then you shouldn’t rebuild. Unfortunately, if the Sox are going to continue to operate like a small market team, the window is going to be small. If you only have one or two shots, you better choose very wisely when to take them. This team has too many holes to warrant blowing “the money” on average role players that take opportunities away from prospects. This time next year, we’re still going to have Moncada/Giolito/Eloy/etc., but we’ll also have Robert/Madrigal/Vaughn either contributing or on the cusp of contributing. It’ll be a stronger base from which to build, and better place to take your one shot. 2022 might be even better. And that may be all we get. I don’t like that fact either, but it is what it is — so for chrissakes I hope they at least do it right.

I’m sure there are tons of posts suggesting things I wouldn’t do, but I am not on the board as much as I used to be, so I miss them. I’ve seen moustakas pop up a lot, so I snagged that one. Yeah, generally, I think the Sox need to make their prospects into contributors instead of signing stopgaps, at this stage. Given what’s currently available in this year’s market, I think that means signing pitching and foregoing position players. If there were superstar position players available, I would likely feel different. A year or two from now, if they’ve failed and are seeing the core pieces on the cusp of free agency, they’ll have to decide whether or not to get more desperate with role players or tear it down again. But with 3 more years of moncada/giolito/etc., this isn’t the year to push all-in with guys like Moustakas.