Eminor3rd

By acquiring one of those two arms without adding additional salary (Gray’s salary is similar and he is definitely getting moved), the chances that they add Happ instead at a much lower commitment and leave a ton of space for Machado are way higher. I actually think Happ is more likely than Corbin now that Cashman has already got a TOR arm in Paxton.

This move greatly increases the chances that they sign Machado.

All of those teams were 2 years further into their rebuilds. Well, except the A's, who are never really in or out.

Not trying to crap on your thread/exercise idea, but: Without Harper/Machado, there is no $150m payroll 2019 plan that makes sense. Even with one of the big two, we’re still rebuilding. No combination of free agents and trades can make a $150m team that’s any better than the one that failed us hard enough that it caused a rebuild a couple years ago. Yes, you can envision a dream scenario where every player takes a step or two forward and no one gets injured and the club decided to get four premium free agents, but the likelihood of that happening is akin to playing the lottery, except the cost of the losing lottery ticket is five years of shitty baseball instead of two bucks.

Guys really still trying to suggest all-in 2019 moves for the 63 win White Sox

This^

He’s a bad defender with a sub-300 obp and he’s already peaked. I’d rather give the roster spot to someone with upside. Yolmer Sanchez is roughly the same thing except the clubhouse loves him.

On this current White Sox roster, I think I would literally rather NOT have Diaz than even have him for free.

A contender will match any reasonable offer we could make, therefore if we got him we’d have to make an unreasonable offer. This type of player only makes sense for us if he unexpected falls through the cracks of the market and is still around in February for well below what he’s worth.

Avisail Garcia for Julio Teheran. Braves have a SP prospect crunch, and Teheran is about the eighth most interesting contender for a spot. He is useful as an innings eater, though, and might have some upside left. He is also on the “expensive” end of an early career extension he signed. Sox need an innings eater with upside. Braves need an affordable RF replacement for Markakis. Teheran is more valuable than Avi, but he is also due more money. The Braves then get to open a spot in their rotation, get a flyer for RF, and actually save money so they can still search for a bigger fish on FA. Sox are gonna sign a FA starter to eat innings anyway, and this is better than they’re going to get for what they’ll pay. Perfect match.

This is why you guys can't have the Filibuster. No one wants to moderate this bullshit. Couldn't even get through one page.

Oh well

I'd give him $15m a year without blinking. I like having him on my team. He's a good, stabilizing clubhouse force, and he'll continue to be productive if he's healthy, even if he won't be a true star again. Keep him.

Remember that he just had knee surgery and no one knows more about how that went than the White Sox.

I think the Nats 10/300 offer is, essentially, going to stay on the table all offseason, even if only unofficially. If im right about that, there’s little reason for Boras not to drag the thing out all the way to the end.

Unless the Medicals turn up something negative, or Yusei limits his market by preferring certain destinations, my opinion is that the MLBTR numbers are a bit low. I think the teams that like him think he’s a mid rotation starter and he will ultimately get will get paid like one — 5 years at $12-15M a year. The mlbtr numbers might be more fair, but remember the winning bid is the outlier. FWIW - there is one industry executive I know that agrees with me. Personally, I’ve watched a lot of him over the past two seasons (10-15 starts), and I kind of think he ends up in a multi inning relief role who gets starts when someone is hurt. He just doesn’t seem to get to his top velocity very often, and I think he could benefit greatly from shorter outings where he can air it out. As a pure starter, I think he’s one of those guys who will dazzle at times and completely bomb at times and who ultimately averages out as a 3/4 guy.

The only time prospect “challenge” trades are made is when both teams have soured on their own guy.

I am also trying to figure this out.

I can’t see the Yankees on either of these guys, unless one of them decides to give a very substantial discount to get there. Machado makes sense at first glance, but IMO, Torres is the SS of the future. They’ll spend on pitching instead and give Andujar another year to develop. If Andujar still can’t field, well, Arenado would be a nice backup plan.

It isn’t — as untouchable as Martes was, his stock fell rapidly leading up to his TJ. Could still be an interesting guy if he recovers, but that could be said about a lot of guys.

I feel better knowing the Astros turned this down and not us. Post-hype and/or injury reclamation guys are the types the Sox should be looking to buy low on.

Agreed.

I think you’re right that projection systems don’t do as well with young players, but I don’t know who doesn’t acknowledge that. Any projection will be worse with less data. And while they do account for breakouts in their aging curves, there’s certainly a lot more volatility for guys whose skills and bodies are still maturing. I don’t wanna think about guessing WARs right now. If you’re planning to illustrate they’d be different than steamer, I’ll grant that. But I don’t know if my personal biases are necessarily better informed. Just differently informed. Probably worse on average.

Right but you’re assuming the projections will all even out for the ones that have decent projections, and just saying “well they have upside” for all the bad ones.

Idk man, everyone hitting their projections is pretty daunting. They may not be 1% outcomes initially, but when you start to stack them up like that it gets there pretty quick. Even if you are talking about mean projections (50%) for everyone (which you aren’t, especially on the pitching side), if I told you you had to flip a coin and get tails fifteen times in a row, what do you think the chances are that you could do it?