Eminor3rd

I can't think of a worse avenue for the Sox to take this season.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Dec 7, 2017 -> 05:29 PM) Dude, Age 33-34 Miguel Cabrera had his OPS decline by .228. That name should scare you as much as Encarnacion gives you hope. Cruz, I will not count him as being on a normal aging curve since we know he juiced for some time. JD Martinez is younger than Abreu I believe. But we're not talking about $300mm. It's not scary when it's $20mm for a bad year or two at the end.

I'd give him 5/$90m right now and just start calling him the next Konerko. He can decline with us, that's fine. He'll be at least a useful DH all the way through that.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Dec 6, 2017 -> 11:34 AM) You down there for work or something? Yeah, nothing sexy. I'm in marketing for a minor league team.

I'll be down there for the meetings -- anyone else going and want to meet up for a beer?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Dec 5, 2017 -> 05:47 PM) Craig Mish‏Verified account @CraigMish 4h4 hours ago SourceS : Full trade offer from SF to Miami for Giancarlo Stanton. Tyler Beede Heliot Ramos (1st noted by @JoeFrisaro ) Chris Shaw Christian Arroyo @jonmorosi had 250 mil 1st @clarkspencer had some combo of this deal also. That is WAYYYYYY too much. Wow

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 01:58 PM) If he ever starts learning the strike zone better and taking more walks the new Avi could be even better. http://www.espn.com/mlb/player/hotzones/_/.../avisail-garcia I think this is absolutely his Achilles' Heel and has been from day one. If he could fix his plate discipline, I'd jump onboard really fast.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Dec 5, 2017 -> 03:51 PM) The current free agent class for outfielders is not great with JD Martinez, Cain, Bruce and Gomez the top available guys. Garcia could be an attractive trade target under control for two more seasons? I think he certainly could, and I have no doubt Hahn is trying to find out what the appetite is. You could argue that Garcia is the most attractive option after the first two of those sign. It just comes down to how many buyers remain at that point.

QUOTE (greg775 @ Dec 5, 2017 -> 04:14 PM) Not trying to flame (you see I've been quiet lately), but your two sentences got me thinking. I wonder how many players you can say that about in terms of "regression." There will be regression? Hmmm. ... I'd say of all the players who hit over .320 and hit 25-35 home runs you can expect regression next season. Why do we rate our own so harshly? Anybody who had a GREAT season, expect regression. Give me a percentage. 80 percent of all guys expect regression? Don't eat your own. That's EXACTLY the point. It's not just Avi, and that's why we're bringing it up. It's an extremely well-researched pattern of results over decades. The point isn't to pick on guys, it's to temper our expectations and give us a realistic outlook when evaluating how our front office decides to treat its assets.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Dec 5, 2017 -> 02:22 PM) Longenhagen said the bat looks a lot slower now than it did when he signed. Not saying I don't wish we had him, but I can get down with not ruining next years plans to give him $2mm+ as a solid call. QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Dec 5, 2017 -> 02:24 PM) Sox are in penalty next year too. Nobody is an option unless it's for $300K Forgot about that, thanks.

QUOTE (miracleon35th @ Dec 5, 2017 -> 02:52 PM) A guy who is 26 and hit .330 in 2017 will be an average player next season ? Avi is not going to regress to his former weight and poor physical conditioning. You're welcome to disagree, man, but there are two or three pages with reams of researched reasons supporting the opposite side of the argument, and you're just popping in essentially saying "nuh-uh" without any evidence to support it. It's hard to take your stance seriously if you don't make a case. I'm not saying you're wrong, but you gotta defend it. QUOTE (miracleon35th @ Dec 5, 2017 -> 02:52 PM) I don't want to discuss advanced stats. I watch most Sox games and have seen hundreds of his at-bats over the last few years. Me too.

Longenhagen said the bat looks a lot slower now than it did when he signed. Not saying I don't wish we had him, but I can get down with not ruining next years plans to give him $2mm+ as a solid call.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 02:21 PM) I know I am at a disadvantage when using modern stats with you because you seem to have a grasp on them whereas I don't. But the writer of the article (pnoles the Sox math champ) seems to disagree with you using the same stats which he seems to understand so I really don't know what else to say to you. You think the .32 difference between the xwOBA and the w OBA is huge and indicates a larger am,ount of luck when he doesn't think it plays a huge roll when determining the luck factor. But I will keep trying ,here is one you may not have seen with another writer looking at modern stats and thinking Avi might just be pretty good. https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/9/12...-good-white-sox I'm not refuting anything pnoles said, I just think there's a factor he missed. The gist of his article (as it seems to me) is that yes, Avi had BABIP luck, but that if you use a stat that is designed to strip out luck and tell you what a guy "should have" hit, he still would have had a much and improved and indeed solid season. However, if we're forecasting Avi's performance, we need to factor performance regression as well. He just had a season that was like 800% better than any season he's ever had. His 2017 fWAR is literally HIGHER THAN his career fWAR. Think about that. When you forecast, you essentially regress the most recent performance against past performances, weighting the most recent performance higher. So if he "should have" had a .353 wOBA, and his wOBA’s over the past two full seasons were .302 and .295, you’d expect him to be closer to the average of those going forward. Even weighting the most recent total more heavily, you’re looking at something between .330 - .340, which is roughly league average for a RF. Since Avi’s defense is certainly below average (even if you think it’s improved from the disaster it used to be), you’re talking about a likely below average RF overall, with the upside of being average to slightly above. If that means he’s a 2 fWAR player for a couple years, that’s still a fantastic outcome for him considering how abysmally bad his first four seasons were. But, we’re talking about whether we should keep him/extend him at a time where his value isn’t maximized because we’re in a rebuild, and I’d argue that extending a likely league average player after his best season (when his price is highest) is NOT something we want to do at this stage. In summary, my point is this: even if you grant Avi significant sustainable improvement, the numbers show that he is much more likely an average player than a star going forward. It’s certainly possible he can get even better, but it’s highly unlikely, so keeping him only becomes a good gamble if the trade offers are garbage. If we have an opportunity to get multiple decent prospects (not necessarily great ones), we should take it, because the more long-term depth and talent we put into this system, the better our chances to win in the next window.

QUOTE (Baron @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 01:52 PM) His criteria is a little stupid though. Apparently small market teams unless your in the LA area...which is now a small market? Remember that no one from Otani's camp has said ANYTHING about a small market -- that was Cashman that said that. More assumptions made by irresponsible people on Twitter and exacerbated by irresponsible reporting. This whole this has been assumptions and speculation.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 02:00 PM) His second half walk rate tends to disagree with you. His second half walk rate of about 8% skyrocketed his season rate all the way to 5.9% which is about two points BELOW his career average. So no, that did not improve. Also, his 41% O-swing, the 9th worst in all of baseball, agrees strongly, and was measured over the entire season. It's also within 0.4% of his career number.

QUOTE (miracleon35th @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 12:12 PM) How many players hit .330 over the course of an entire season during any time in their career? There is a lot of skepticism that is not tied to reality - reality in this case being a player who has improved his plate discipline, has lost a lot of weight and has greatly improved his physical conditioning. He looks quicker and no doubt has more flexibility with the weight ;loss. In addition, he has effectively countered the strategy of pitching him low outside pitches by anticipating those pitches and taking them to right field. I see a progression in Avi's power numbers when pitchers start abandoning that strategy and try to get him out on the inside part of the plate more. I would not trade Avi unless a no-miss blue chip prospect is included plus one or two more highly rated prospects. This guy is a stud...one of the best hitters in the league and he might only get better adding power numbers. He may have improved his physical conditioning, but his plate discipline absolutely did NOT get better, which is among the most significant indicators that his perfromance may not have been sustainable.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 12:22 PM) You keep saying a .353 wOBA but it was .385 . The .353 is xwOBA and the article says the difference between the two is not overly high enough to say the luck factor was as significant as just looking at BABIP might suggest. You can't use the xwOBA to prove a point and then discredit it in the next breath. If you want to use his actual wOBA, then you're back into the original argument that his BABIP made him lucky. Also, a 30 point difference in wOBA is huge. The way I took the article was that a .353 wOBA would have "still been good," which it would have, just not nearly AS good, and well within shouting distance of mediocre when you factor in standard regression, especially when you consider how drastically different his season was than his career.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 11:20 AM) So you disagree with the whole premise that Avi wasn't significantly lucky last year ? Not sure you or maybe its me because you are certainly more in tune with stats than I am but I don't think that .353 figure you mentioned was a best season scenario , it's his expected xwOBA not wOBA based on his batted ball stats. His actual wOBA was .385. I hope you read the whole article. I did read the whole article, back when it came out. He was definitely significantly lucky, and you (and the article) addressed the luck component. My point is that you DIDN'T address the regression component. Whenever anyone has a breakout/career outlier season, the most likely thing to follow is regression toward career averages, simply by definition of it being an outlier season. Even if Avisail actually and sustainably improved, he's still likely to regress. And if the "improvement" was to a tune of a .353 wOBA, there isn't a ton of room for regression before he's league average. Which, keep in mind, is still a huge improvement over what he's been, but it isn't worth extending at market rates and it isn't worth potentially sacrificing a decent return in year two of a rebuild.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 10:54 AM) Here's an article from SSS about BABIP and if Avi really was lucky as some suggest . here is the conclusion but read the whole article to fully understand the data. https://www.southsidesox.com/2017/10/11/164...ir-side-in-2017 "It’s widely believed that Garcia’s .392 BABIP has fueled his stellar season. That’s true to a degree, but xwOBA doesn’t see him falling off all that hard. The .353 figure above still suggests he’s a very good hitter even without the fortuitous bounces. With his vastly improved defense in right field, Garcia looks the part of a well above-average player even when his luck comes back to earth." It also says that ground balls go for hits 24% of the time while fly balls are 21% . Now this info was from 2014 so there is the caveat that with many more HR's during 2017 that fly balls produce a higher percentage now. Also that xwOBA doesn't take the players speed into consideration . Avi had many infield hits and his speed and hustle down the first base line no doubt was a factor so speed isn't really luck it's just part of a players skill set. Now Avi no doubt caught a few infielders off guard with his improved speed and some of those hits were just a fielder taking his sweet time and Avi made them pay for it so those kind of hits most likely won't happen again. But overall when you take speed and xwOBA into consideration Avi was not as significantly lucky as many suggest. League average wOBA for a RF is .330. If his best season should have been a .353, it doesn't take much regression to be league average. And a league average bat with bad but maybe improving defense in RF is a below average player.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/white-sox-b...-up-at-catcher/

QUOTE (Jack Parkman @ Dec 3, 2017 -> 07:25 AM) His batted ball profile isn't that different from 2015-16 so I don't know what you guys are talking about. His exit velocity went down too, from 104 to 90 mph last season so it wasn't like he was hitting the ball harder. There ain't NO WAY Avi put up an average exit velocity of 104 mph at any point in his career.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 09:52 AM) Maybe he just didn't like bunting. Haha, I actually can't believe we didn't list that as an advantage. In Japan, they bunt like literally 5 times more often. EVERYONE bunts, even cleanup hitters. But maybe, just maybe -- THAT'S the real reason he wanted to leave Japan! Too many bunts! And he liked Chicago until he watched a few WHite Sox games and said, "Nope, this Renteria dude belong in Japan. Too many bunts."

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 09:01 AM) No doubt. I’ll fully acknowledge that I’m a Cubs hater and for that reason alone it would be tough for Ohtani to land there, but my bigger fear is giving a big market team like the Cubs that already has a great young nucleus in place an asset that’s going to provide a ridiculous amount of surplus from the get-go for basically nothing. Even worse would be the fact they pulled this off while in the penalty box and got to reap all those fruits as well. While I still think Seattle & San Diego are the favorites, I’ve learned in life to never rule Theo out. Dude is as smart as they come and will find a way against all odds to keep the Cubs in the conversation. I'm okay knowing that he didn't choose the White Sox because he wanted to be with a team that had something we couldn't have -- like being on the West Coast, or having a better Japanese-American population. But it would really hurt knowing he was willing to choose Chicago despite all that, and that the Cubs simply beat us at pitching him. Because if he's considering the Padres, you know the contention window thing doesn't matter.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 4, 2017 -> 08:49 AM) I will admit I enjoy seeing NY all salty about this. The amount of entitlement that city has is beyond unbearable. Agreed. Gotta admit though, I'm getting a little stressed that the Cubs are still involved.

Interesting -- didn't see that coming.