Eminor3rd

There is no question.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Nov 30, 2017 -> 11:30 AM) I think so. I think you'd have to be willing to guarantee the fifth year. 5/$100mm is fair.

QUOTE (CaliSoxFanViaSWside @ Nov 29, 2017 -> 10:53 PM) Maybe my pro-Avi stance the last few years and his very good season is wearing you down . One more very good year from him and I might even be able to say " told ya so. " If so, man, I'll gladly wear it. I'm still not on board, simply because I saw better results this year from the same old (in my eyes) flawed process, and I just can't see the objective evidence that it'll continue. But I've always said I hope I'm wrong about him, and I really do.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Nov 29, 2017 -> 03:26 PM) What a time to be alive - Eminor is defending Avisail Garcia. I almost forgot which player we were talking about a couple times.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Nov 29, 2017 -> 10:28 AM) This was the whole point. You can't just use this stat and say he was a good base runner. This stat doesn't necessarily measure that. It's not a good thing to have bad base running instincts but produce a positive value on the bases. There is something wrong with the way the stat is calculated if people are going to use it to say they were a good base runner or the person is using the stat incorrectly. The other issue with the stat is that you cannot say that AVI was a better base runner this year compared to last year with this stat. The stat uses the performance of the rest of the league in the calculation. How do you know the rest of the league didn't do worse this year and AVI stayed the same? That would show an improvement in Avi's measurement for this year. They would need to compile the data from both years to truly get his measure. As I said before, I'm not trying to say that stat is useless you just need it in context like all stats. It has value. However, saying that AVI is better because this stat says so and the eye test means nothing is a poor way to look at it. It's a good place to start but you shouldn't discount other information just because this stat say so. I think we're just arguing different things. The first bolded line doesn't make any sense to me at all. Your second bolded line is one I've tried to address with every reply but have apparently failed. The eye test can help you diagnose things and help you project things, but it cannot measure value in an objective and normalized way like the stat can. They are simply not useful for the same thing. You may be correct that he makes too many bad decisions on the basepaths based on your personal observations, but you cannot make any remotely convincing case about his net baserunning value based on your personal observations. Even a seasoned scout who watched him in person couldn't. And if you're evaluating the value a player can bring to a team, you are concerned about his net baserunning value much more than any single component of it, unless you feel like you can improve said component to positively affect the net value. I think the actual argument you'd make against dunts or whoever it was that posted the stat originally would be: "Sure, he posted a positive value this year, but it was a barely positive value and the first such instance in his career. Based on (1) the bone-headed decisions I've watched him make over the years, (2) the precedent set by the rest of his career, and (3) the fact that Bsr stats tend to take multiple seasons to become predictive, I think it's far more likely that last year was a fluke than it is that Avi has made a substantial and sustainable improvement on the basepaths." And that argument makes a ton of sense and I honestly would probably believe it. But it isn't because the stats being used are junk.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Nov 29, 2017 -> 11:56 AM) I agree with this but now is the time to move if they are truly going to move him. I read this one of two ways: Sox leaked Red Sox to the media in order to press some other suitors into action on Abreu in talks. Also possible, Dombrowski floated the possibility of trading for Abreu because they are in the Hosmer/Martinez market and Boras hasn't even started moving. I hadn't thought about the bolded, but it makes a ton of sense. Dombrowski must be aware that he's Boras' best buyer on both of those guys, and he doesn't want to let Boras drag it out until March.

I'm obviously pro-rebuild and also believe that the Sox still need more talent in the system to really do this right, but I don't like this fit. Obviously there's a price for any player, but I don't see anything left in the Red Sox system that would make sense. I've said it before, but I think Abreu is worth more to the White Sox than he is on the open market.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Nov 29, 2017 -> 12:37 AM) You should want it a different way by watching if the runners makes a smart decision, regardless of the fact that 15 others players on the team would have made a different decision which would have been right for them. Right, but all that stuff is baked in. If a guy is a "dumb" baserunner and gets himself thrown out at bad times, he's going to get docked. If he's slow but "smart" and finds opportune times to get extra bases anyway, he's going to get credit. If he's slow but "smart" and simply doesn't ever advance, he's not going to get credit because he doesn't advance -- but he won't get hit as hard as he would if he created an out. It doesn't matter what combination of athleticism or instincts leads to the result -- a guy either creates value on the basepaths or subtracts value on the basepaths. All of that will show up in UBR/wSB, each event conveniently compared at precisely the level that they typically produce or subtract runs. How much worse is it to get thrown out than to simply NOT advance? That is EXACTLY the type of situation where linear weights shines the most. Kendry Morales is probably the slowest dude in the whole league. He probably knows that he should practically never advance more than one base in any situation. So he clogs up the bases, turning RBI hits into non-RBI hits. If a team wants to acquire him, and baserunning comes up, should they give him positive marks? Should he be considered a plus on the basepaths? Of course not. His "smarts" very well help him, but at the end of the day, he kills you on the bases. The claim that "Avi has bad baserunning instincts" and the claim that "Avi produced positive value on the bases last year" can both be true, but the former is merely an aspect of the latter.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Nov 28, 2017 -> 09:04 PM) This is the issue with the stat. How they determine how often they expect a runner to score is inherently flawed. Not every runner is the average of the league. No, of course every runner isn't average, but I'm not sure why that would be relevant. This stat is using average as a baseline for comparison, and a runner that consistently advances more than average is rewarded and of course the opposite is true. Why would we want it any other way? Granted: There are going to be outlier situations, such as when a ball takes an incredibly fortunate/unfortunate carom off the wall right to/away from a fielder. But the idea is that those things get ironed out over large samples. I think maybe your issue is to assume the stat measures true talent at every snapshot, which no one will claim. In fact, it's pretty standard to consider two and three years samples of baserunning data to be able to project future performance. What the stat DOES do is flat out say that this IS what happened on the field, in terms of expected run value, compared to the average player. It's a counting stat like so many others. It's no different than looking at homeruns, really -- a guy either did or didn't hit a certain number of homeruns. Whether you want to consider a single season of a homerun total as a measure of his true talent is up to many other factors. I don't think anyone is really willing to point to Avi's UBR and say that it means he's a good baserunner now. But he DID put up an improved number this year, and so it is a relevant data point. More like a "FWIW" thing.

QUOTE (Lip Man 1 @ Nov 28, 2017 -> 11:02 PM) Eminor: No problem. I care in this case because fundamentals have been so bad on the Sox since the last few years under Ozzie. It costs them games. Avi's baseball-sense, in my opinion is poor. Base running is part of those fundamental instincts and while to the eye he has improved slightly, to me, again, he's still bad at it and in his judgments. It all has to weigh on Hahn's mind as he tried to decide if he wants to offer him an extension. Can't argue with any of that.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Nov 28, 2017 -> 03:16 PM) I would disagree with this to a degree. All owners have the money. However, not all of them have the money to absorb a 20 AAV mistake. That could cripple some teams budget and mkae the team useless. What you said is correct, but that's not what I'm trying to get at. The point I was trying to make is that the fiscally correct way for an ownership group to look at an investment is the total value of the expenditure while factoring inflation. It isn't that the Angels owners are saying "wow this hurts paying Pujols $30m in his age 39 season," it's that the Angels owners spent $240mm to get the rest of Pujols career when he was 32 or whatever. And there's a payment plan that defers that cost ten or so years into the future.

QUOTE (ptatc @ Nov 28, 2017 -> 03:14 PM) This stats looks at base running as a pure run expectancy as the only relevant base running plays. I would disagree that it looks at all of base running in general. Knowing how to stretch a single to a double or take an extra base isn't really considered. Neither is stealing a base. I would classify those as part of base running. As Balta said, that stuff is all in there. I'm sure some stuff is missed somewhere, and the data is no doubt imperfect, but that stuff IS being counted. QUOTE (Lip Man 1 @ Nov 28, 2017 -> 03:26 PM) I know that you can't quantify what goes through a player's mind when he is running, a situation which has billions of variables and how the defense is going to react to that specific situation. To me, my eye test, Avi has improved as a base runner but he's far from ideal which goes into factoring if you want to re-sign him along with his defense which is generally poor and his offensive production. Fundamentals, baseball-sense are important to me. I don't mind at all if you disagree and hate it, and respect your knowledge and opinion as a long-time fan and poster, I just posted the link because I want you to know what you're actually disagreeing with here. You're right that we can't count what's in a player's head -- but to me, whatever goes through a player's head on the basepaths only matters if it affects his actual baserunning behavior, which can be and is observed and quantified. If he has instincts, good or bad, that DON'T result in him making different running decisions, I don't know why we care.

I think any or all of those relievers could go, but I think they'd try to bring all of them back on Minor league deals. If it was up to me, I'd just tender all of them knowing my payroll is like five million total already.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Nov 28, 2017 -> 01:10 PM) My perspective on the current FA market is a little different. Based on my view of the last few years, I think you need to understand that any free agent signing is a huge gamble, and this totally includes guys who are in their 20s who you would think have many productive years left. Jayson Heyward, Chris Davis have been utter and complete busts despite signing contracts at age 27 and 29. The difference is - if you offered both of those teams a guaranteed chance to undo every move they made since the start of the 2016 offseason, one of them would say yes and one would say "no we like this trophy". Take a look at what the Cubs did, what the Astros did. They started off by building loaded rosters from within. Multiple, home grown, young all stars on each squad. They then went out to the FA market in strong positions, looking to fill a handful of pieces rather than needing to reshape their club. The Cubs signed Lester, Heyward, and Zobrist. Out of those 3, Heyward has been a serious disappointment, Zobrist had one decent year and flopped in the 2nd year of a 4 year deal, Lester has been the best of them but he now looks like a pitcher who might be declining and he has 3 more years and $75 million more guaranteed. The Astros signed Beltran, Reddick, and Charlie Morton. Reddick and Morton probably overperformed and Beltran Underperformed. What is in common? Each of those teams was ready to go and filling holes. They were strong enough that if the guy they brought in wasn't the best in baseball, it didn't cost them a title. The Giants wasted a lot of money on a poor Hunter Pence this year, they suffered through a rough season, but you think they like that 2014 trophy? Contrast that with what the Tigers did. The Tigers were signing big money FAs as a way to stay relevant and maybe increase their window. Or the Orioles or Mariners - they're always signing big money FAs to try to fight against the tide. They don't want to wait to be competitive, they think they're just 3-4 players away from being competitive. But, if you have to go out and sign 3-4 players, you better have an answer for how you'll win if 2 of them bust. If you're trying to extend your window a-la the Tigers, you better be ready for the guys you sign to be dragging you down in only a couple years. That was the lesson of the 2015-2016 white sox. They were teams trying to piece together a contender out of one or two good players and a whole bunch of FA signings. With such a weak core to the team, they couldn't even sustain .500 records if any of the guys they signed underperformed. Melky Cabrera comes out magically weaker in 2015 after signing his contract, LaRoche flops, and all of a sudden their offense is flat and they have no solutions to how to fix it. If you want to play this FA market, you have to understand you're playing a sucker's bet. If you are going after Harper, great, but understand that you have to have a team around him ready to go. The modern FA market will not build your team, things are too expensive and there is too little value. You have to not care if you lose money on the deal, you have to expect it. If you're signing Harper, you have to expect that the last 5 years could be a complete flop and NOT CARE. If you're signing Machado, and he hits a wall at age 29, you have to NOT CARE. That is the only way to win this market if you're bidding for guys. Be ready to win a world series without them and have them be the icing on the cake. It's the only way. Great post. I'll also add that people get too caught up on length of contract. There's a reason that max AAV's essentially haven't increased AT ALL since Alex Rodriguez's original deal -- it's because it's the total contract value that matters way more to ownership. It was going to cost the Angels $240mm to get Albert Pujols -- it doesn't matter if it was over 10 years or four years. The owners HAVE the money, it's just a question of when they write the checks. Because of inflation, it's actually better to defer the payments to later, and for GMs, it helps them stay under the luxury tax too. When people say "I don't mind the $25mm, I just mind the eight years" or whatever, they need to realize that if it was five years, you WOULD mind the AAV. As a team, you might as well spread the cost out -- it allows you to benefit from inflation and gives you the chance to continue to benefit from the player longer, even in a diminished role. All the money to guaranteed was gone the day you signed the deal regardless of how long the deal goes. This is also why it's EXTREMELY dumb to say "The X team is paying him $25mm, they aren't going to bench him/they need to see a return on that investment." Once a guy's roster spot becomes worth more than his performance, it makes all the sense in the world to release him. To continue to allow the player suck wins from you actually REDUCES your ROI. You aren't "eating money" to let him go, you already spent that money long ago. There's no additional cost.

QUOTE (Lip Man 1 @ Nov 28, 2017 -> 12:12 PM) Dunt: Right, there's a way to accurately measure how a guy runs the bases, the decision making thought process for each one and factors in the decision making process of the players on defense when said player is running the bases. SIGN ME UP! Stats = narrative. Do you even know how it works? Here's UBR: https://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/ubr/

QUOTE (reiks12 @ Nov 27, 2017 -> 07:36 PM) Ohtani's questionnaire to interested teams: https://www.instagram.com/p/BcAN44IDa_4/ Honestly these are all things we excel at no? especially medicals The more he continues to insist that money means literally nothing to him, the more it becomes actually realistic for any AL team to land him. It makes me really sad and disappointed that there are no outward signs that the White Sox are really trying. Obviously that doesn't mean they aren't under the radar, but it would just be so nice to see a public effort a la the Mariners so that we could legitimately hope.

QUOTE (zisk @ Nov 27, 2017 -> 07:46 AM) Ohtani can pitch and hit in the same game . There isn't a rule prohibiting that. He doesn't even do that now, though.

We should all keep in mind that 98% of all commentary about Otani's "preferences" are complete and total speculation. He's been extremely careful and limited in his statements to the media. The only thing we can be reasonably sure about is that he wants to hit and allegedly isn't worried about how much money he will make. Everything else has either come from internet comment sections or blogger speculation pieces that get mis-reported. Someone like Heyman will write "No one really knows what he wants. It could be that he may want to go to a place where there he can establish himself as the foundation of a long-term rebuild." And then people start posting and commenting "I heard he only wants to go to a rebuilding team!"

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Nov 22, 2017 -> 07:14 AM) Yep. I still think if the Sox really wanted him, they could make a good offer to get him. Would seem to come down to going for a couple million dollars or regular at bats. Idk how many at bats teams like the Yankees, Rangers, Twins and Mariners can give him if he really wants to hit. Of those four, really only the Mariners have a regular DH that would compete for ABs. Believe me, I love to follow the NPB and I want Otani on the White Sox BADLY (I subscribe to the PL streaming service and watched all of Otani's starts this year), but this one is looking to be very, very unlikely for us. Really, no AL team has less to offer him on paper than we do. We're not currently a contender, have the least amount of money to give, exist in an underperforming media market (given the Cubs and compared to LA/NYC), and we have a guy who will likely need to compete for DH at bats going forward (Abreu). On top of that, the Sox are one of the few teams who didn't bother to send anyone to go see him pitch this year, and there have been no indications that they've contacted his agent. To me, it appears that the Sox consciously chose to put their eggs in the Luis Robert basket instead of joining the scrum for Otani, knowing that they had a much better chance of landing Robert given their ability to spend big and offer a Cuban-friendly clubhouse.

QUOTE (cjgalloway @ Nov 21, 2017 -> 12:56 PM) I don't see how limiting it to 2017 international bonus pools is fair to teams who are over it since they were unaware Maitan and others would be available.. hmm This should have a special rule where anyone is allowed in, but you'd ahve to pay the double tax if you're over (like how we signed Robert) Well, going over the pool is AGAINST the rules, so I don't think the MLB cares at all if some teams wish they had more warning. The MLB would just say "then don't break the rules next time."

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 20, 2017 -> 05:55 PM) Can't say I've truly grasped what the interests being defended are. The negotiating window thing makes sense to me -- a lot of players' fee agent contracts will be put on hold until teams know they missed on Otani. Not knowing where he's going until Feb 1 could have a drastic impact on free agency.

QUOTE (bmags @ Nov 20, 2017 -> 03:25 PM) Weird for me now being old enough to truly having watched and remembered most of these guys careers now eligible. You start to get some of the fights that happened previously a little better. Like first gut check, no way Rolen is a HOFer. Then I looked at numbers and it's like...hmmm Yeah, same reaction on Rolen.

Keep in mind that, given all we know about the LA amateur market and the fact that the Braves are losing him because of extra shadiness, there’s a good chance he didn’t see a whole lot of that 3 million in the first place.

QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Nov 16, 2017 -> 02:54 PM) Then journalists need to get their facts right. The article I read said he made one pitching appearance all year and got touched up for 4 runs in 1.1 innings. Yeah that’s extremely wrong. That was the line from his first start of the year, which didn’t happen until July. You may have been reading an old article.

QUOTE (GenericUserName @ Nov 15, 2017 -> 06:52 PM) Exactly. And for literally one game! How do we know we weren't there for every other game but our scout had food poisoning that night? We don't! Yeah, we can say its highly unlikely, but extrapolating from a single report about one game is ridiculous especially when most reporters have repeatedly said that every team will at least attempt to sign him. This isn’t true. Otani made seven starts, and there were a minimum ten teams represented at all of them. The broadcast would pan up to the scout seats practically every time he touched 98+