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Nitpicking on Sale and Quintana here, but this number has to get better next year. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/so...type/expanded-2

Pretty incredible 2 months for Chris Bassitt. He went from injured in the minors to rehabbing in the Rookies League to making ML debut and now shutting down one of the best offenses. He deserves a chance to battle for the 5th spot next ST.

QUOTE (fathom @ Sep 20, 2014 -> 11:00 AM) Sorry, I meant the last few weeks it seems he's not chasing pitches as much. When he returned from the injury, his timing was so off he was swinging at everything. Are there stats to show his swing percentage by month? QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Sep 20, 2014 -> 04:30 PM) Good question, I'm not aware of how to do it, but I'll dig around and try to find something. Swing rate in September He tends to lay off pitches on the interior and is aggressive on anything that's down the middle and out. Whiff rate in September He gets the bat on the ball on most of his swings, but pitches low and outside seem to be his weakness.

QUOTE (scs787 @ Sep 20, 2014 -> 12:00 PM) Has anyone ever messed with fanduel? How long is the "pending bonus" pending? Deposited $25 last week and got that amount in the pending bonus as well. But only $0.60 was awarded to me while the rest is still in pending after spending $15 in leagues last week.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 01:22 PM) Added together, trading away Sale for a package, even a top flight package, does two things; it dramatically decreases our near-term performance and it dramatically increases our long-term risk. That's a hard pair to stomach, hence why I can't come up with any conceivable package that works. Every time someone has said we should trade Sale I've responded "Mike Trout's available"? I think that's a fair point. 2 years ago Bryce Harper was on that list with Trout, but he isn't there yet either and there's an injury worry. Taveras, Wacha, Martinez, and Wong (or Adams). All of which are performing at ML level at this point. Had we made the trade last year, it would have been impressive as rarely would you yield 100% major leaguers in a trade package. Wong/Adams, and Wacha are all 3 WAR players if they played a full season this year. Taveras has progressed in the second half this year and still looks like he can win a batting title in 2 years. Martinez, if nothing else, can throw 100 mph and is a future closer candidate if not a mid rotation starter. I would argue the long term risk of this deal is fairly low compared to other trade packages, and at the same time, I would come back to the health of Chris Sale being a bigger long term risk.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 10:50 AM) Ok, this is where I struggle to understand the outrage when the mere mention of trading Sale is raised. If we can go to market and buy 1 if not 2 aces, why is the idea met with such universal disdain? Chris Sale is making 1/5th of what he'd be worth in the open market between now and 2019. For me, the logic is, if Sale couldn't make it through a season healthy at this stage of his career, throwing for as hard as he throws for 200 innings a year for the next 3 years of .500 baseball is going to be a huge risk for the Sox. Therefore I will capitalize on his team friendly contract and let a team pay a boatload of prospects for him. But others prefer an ace with a team friendly contract and also a question mark that hasn't gone away.

QUOTE (iamshack @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 09:50 AM) Well, I admitted it would be unpopular, and I certainly don't mind getting bashed. As you alluded to, I think it is important to consider things like this, despite their unpopularity. One thing I will say is that the "bashers" don't usually come back and admit they were wrong when the minority opinion was correct. As for Sale, a trade would not necessarily have to be entirely for prospects, per se. Honestly, what if the deal was Sale for Rizzo/Bryant/High ceiling A-ball prospect? Doubtful the Cubs would consider that, but I don't think that is soooo incredibly out of the realm of possibilities if another team were to put together some pieces like that... I commend you for going against the popular believe. For the record, I start a thread on this last year and was bashed pretty bad as well. http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=89048 Being where we are at now, I'd still do Taveras, Wacha, Martinez and Wong for Sale.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Sep 17, 2014 -> 10:02 AM) I think the Sox would want an elite level pitching prospect, but you're right that it doesn't have to necessarily just be prospects and Rizzo is a guy that would be attractive. Frankly, I think Rizzo, Bryant, and Edwards is pretty damn close. Highly doubt Cubs would do that. FWIW I think Rizzo has the more team friendly contract as he is signed through 2019 for $35 mil total, with $14.5 team options in 2020 and 2021. They wouldn't trade their 2 best position players for a pitcher when they have the money to go out and buy 1 if not 2 aces if needed.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Sep 16, 2014 -> 03:22 PM) What does everyone make of the relationship between HR/FB%, HR/9 and really any other statistics used for measuring HR. There doesn't seem to be a lot of common ground, at least in my scant rummages, in the statistic community. A lot of people think that HR/FB% has a lot to do with luck but obviously it is a skill for certain pitchers who limit HRs like sinkerballers but with neither of Quintana or Sale being sinkerballers, the improvement is jarring. Sure, Sale is straight-up filthy and Quintana works all parts of the plate/changes eye levels like no other, but this was true prior to this year. Their stats this year are true outliers. Our two studs are 7th and 9th in fWAR for the AL largely because Quintana is 3rd in HR/FB% and Sale is 12th (4.4% and 6.9% respectively). It's even more incredible considering the ballpark they call home. Quintana HR/FB% 2012 10.5% 2013 10.2% 2014 4.4% Career 8.3% Sale HR/FB% 2010 11.1% 2011 10.9% 2012 11.6% 2013 12.9% 2014 6.9% Career 10.5% Is this something they have worked on with Coop and the coaching staff? That would definitely jive with organizational philosophy of sinkerballers/ground ball inducing pitchers. Is it a matter of younger pitchers become more polished and learning from past mistakes? Or is it that they both have had nearly identical improvements that should regress towards the mean next year? Very curious to where everyone sits on this, but regardless, I just love to talk about our two cost-controlled, front-line left-handed starting pitchers. Especially considering both have improved for the third straight year. I think fWAR is calculated with FIP instead of xFIP, which only looks at their overall HR allowed. If fWAR used xFIP instead, it would certainly penalize their value because their HR/FB is relatively low. To answer your question without actually getting insights from the coaching staff, I would say on surface this has a lot to do with both pitchers relying on their off speed stuff alot more. In Quintana's case, out of the 400+ changeups he's thrown, he's yet to allow a HR. Here's a good look at each's pitches thrown vs results for the past two years. Sale 2013 Sale 2014 Q 2013 Q 2014 In the case of Sale, he cut down opponent's ISO against his FB by more than half this season, which is pretty remarkable. In 2013, he has allowed 12 HR off his FB, while only allowing 2 so far in 2014. Looking at his fastball velocity in between the past two years, the velocity difference isn't significant enough to suggest such improvement. This could all be a fluke, but it could be not. Digging deeper, I found on Fangraphs his fastball vertical movement went from 4" and 4.1" in 2012 and 2013, respectively, to 6.3" in 2014, making it that much harder for hitters to put good wood on the ball and hit it far. This, by no means, is conclusive evidence or tells the whole story of his development, by it is a good place to start.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Sep 15, 2014 -> 09:23 PM) I think that if Felix drops his ERA below 2.20 and Sale stays under 2.00, we have a pretty legitimate chance. I think ERA is one of the main stats that the voters look at, as even the ESPN guys are drifting away from W/L. Sale leads in FIP, too, so that helps. Looking back, it's just a shame that missing a month likely cost him the Cy Young because Robin decided to leave him out there for 127 pitches. No way. So you are saying in their next starts, if Felix goes 7 innings and allows 3 runs, while Sale go 7 and allows 1 run, Sale would have a legitimate chance. I think that's far from true. Their inning difference too much at this point. Unless Felix has two really bad starts in a row, and Sale keeps doing what he's been doing, I don't think it's going to be a close race.

1 extra start won't matter at this point. Most of the voters already have their minds made up a while ago, and unless Felix bombs in his next 2 starts, their votes will not change. I think it's safe to say that if their ERA differential is less than 0.40, Felix will be your 2014 AL Cy Young winner

In the case of Venditte, I am surprised he still hasn't made it to the majors yet. He made AA in 2010 and AAA in 2012, and his minor league stats have been solid throughout his career. It almost seems like the folks at MLB the Show are asking Yankees not to bring him to the majors, because someone who can pitch from both sides will cause a permanent glitch to the game.

Haven't seen much of Young. He took advantage of a matchup against a backup. But he seemed really tiny on my TV set

Gotta hand it to Jay. He had to made plenty of adjustments in this one, and he was patient and didn't force anything in the second half. The D and the ref played a role as well of course.

Terrible. Definitely not enough evidence to overturn the call.

QUOTE (HickoryHuskers @ Sep 11, 2014 -> 03:03 PM) Yeah, Sale isn't enough above Felix in performance to make up for the 50+ IP difference. Getting his ERA under 2 might sway some voters though. Felix only has 6 more starts than Sale, but has pitched 49 more innings. Meaning Sale would still have to pitch 8+ innings in those missed starts to match Felix's IP. The consistency to go deep into a game is also something the voters look at.

McHugh is a 27 year old who has only pitched 70 innings prior to this year. He was also someone who was DFA'd last year. No way am I trading Anderson plus for him.

He took a huge leap forward this year by all accounts. And mind you he was someone he was someone batting in the lower 3rd of the lineup last year while repeating rookie ball. So he must have made some pretty significant improvements to his game for the organization to invest the spot in him.

In other news, Spain lost to a France team that was lead by Boris Diaw and Nic Batum today, the team that was supposed to be the only threat to the U.S.

Garbage piece. It's solely based on the word Potential. There is a strong chance guys like Polanco and Baez will not even be regular players. I also disagree with Tanaka at 1, he's only 2 years younger than Abreu, and is prone to losing a year due to injury. But this piece kind of made the "Sale vs Abreu" debate we had a couple months ago lopsided, as we can agree Sale is superior to Tanaka, and has a much more friendlier contract.

Nor do I think Viciedo will be back. Without the roster holds accounted for, Sox have $56 mil committed on 17 players. And I expect 3 spots to be filled by Wilkins, Sanchez and Snodgress. Meaning Sox should have $32 mil to spend on 5 players to reach a fair estimate of $90 mil payroll.

QUOTE (shysocks @ Sep 9, 2014 -> 02:44 PM) Assuming the Quintana bonus refers to the way his contract escalates if he would qualify for arbitration. $1M next year without it, $3.4M with it. The $56M estimate includes $3.4M dued to Q. I do not know where the $65M figure comes from

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Sep 9, 2014 -> 02:22 PM) The reality of course is that if the Sox's current payroll is just under $65 million with a Quintana bonus in there, and the payroll is going to move up to ~ $85 million, the argument against James Shields is that they're not going to sign just James Shields and leave no money to do anything else. Since Shields probably will be above $15 mil per, that's your message right there How much is the Quintana bonus? I am not aware of a significant bonus amount due to Q next year. Either way, I have Sox at $56 mil currently with the guys likely to be brought back in arbitration. Meaning they will have $34 mil to spend to reach $90 mil. Even if they go the Shields route, they can afford him along with a couple other quality guys. I won't rule out that possibility just yet.

The payroll was around $85 mil this year, as the BR figures does not include the contracts traded away. The Sox will spend money to bring the payroll back up to around that range, we just don't know which direction they want to go with this, i.e. buying low on Masterson and others or bring in James Shields

BR is a great resource to get a quick snapshot of Sox payroll for next year. http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CH...-salaries.shtml In a nutshell, with the committed salary and pre-arb and arbitration deals, Sox should have around $56 mil on their payroll (let's assuming they will not go through arbitration with Viciedo and Belisario). Realistically, their final payroll will be around $90 mil, giving them $34 mil to spend. But if they decide to be aggressive and go all out, sources say they can afford a payroll slightly over $100 mil, giving them close to $50 mil to spend. But judging by the team's history of free agency spending, that's not going to be realistic. And I think the salary of the high draft pick will be factored in here somehow.