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Everything posted by thxfrthmmrs
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QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 10:52 AM) The saying goes, rebuilding clubs should always be trading relievers. The trade really breaks down like this: Robertson + Frazier for Ian Clarkin + Tito Polo + Tyler Clippard ($2.5 million owed, Sox pay) + Yankees pay entire remaining salaries for Robertson/Frazier (Sox save roughly $20 million) Kahnle for Rutherford I like Kahnle, I really do. I know he has shown great improvement this year and has been outstanding, and very well may continue to do so. I also know what happened to Jesse Crain, Scott Linebrink and Nate Jones though. Relief pitching is arguably one of the most volatile positions in the sport. Overall we should be very happy with this deal, as it both saved the club money and added young talent. Hahn has done a tremendous job stocking our farm system with interesting young players. Not all of them will pan out, but the team certainly has plenty of potential options and depth that it did not have 12 months ago. This deal also greatly aids our tank efforts, as I do not see them winning very many games with such a shaky bullpen. Also, consider we traded Gordon Beckham for Yency Almonte...Yency Almonte for Tommy Kahnle...Tommy Kahnle for Blake Rutherford.................we basically used Gordon Beckham to acquire Blake Rutherford I don't think Kahnle for Rutherford is too far off. But did anyone actually expect only two C level prospects for Frazier and Robertson before deal went down? I think that's even worse than A's got for two lesser players, which was considered a slim return. Money saving is nice on paper but we're in good spot financially, would have prefer to eat some money with another team to get a B level prospect in return.
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I'm sure this has already been posted, but for anyone who still thinks Kahnle is headed to worthless territory in a few months, here is a nice article with detailed breakdown on Kahnle's success. Also includes a nice comparison of him to another well known reliever. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-white-s...jor-trade-chip/
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QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 10:11 AM) Spot on. Exactly my line of thinking as well. What more can we expect if Kahnle keeps this up? Rutherford is a good few months away from being considered untouchable. He's not an easy player to part with due to his potential. I think that is the fallacy of prospects in baseball. Your take on Kahnle who is having a breakout year backed by improvement in stuff - he's a few bad months away from being worthless. Then for Rutherford who is off to a relatively slow start in Low A - he's a few good months away from being untouchable. Right, because historical trends tells us players in midst of breakout aren't continue to sustain performance, while prospects are very much likely going to pan out?
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QUOTE (Alexeihyeess @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 09:43 AM) But there is not as much control left on Kahnle, and if he's dealt next deadline it would be as a rental. Also, if there is one thing the White Sox have in spades it's right handers with explosive stuff. They are in a pretty good position to replace Kahnle without ever noticing hes gone. He's got three and a half year left, just like Q.
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QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 09:22 AM) Because he had to take some off to get it over the plate. He's always thrown extreme gas. He's always been throwing hard, so if he's able to throw hard more consistently now due to improved command, then it's more likely he's able to sustain success. People act like he's having a fluke year, but there is real reason behind his success.
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QUOTE (soxforlife05 @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 09:23 AM) Look at what the A's got for Doolittle and Madson. Going to stop posting in this thread soon because people just don't get it. A's lowered the market with their deal. Proposed Nats deal was dependent on their desperation for multiple relievers. Maybe you should stop posting here then. I highly doubt you're smarter than everyone else here, because you seem like ignore the facts on how much value relievers have in trade deadlines or FA market in the past few years. One trade with the A's does not change the market. Neither Doolittle or Madson has closer experience like Robertson, and they aren't as dominant as Kahnle. They should rightfully go for less.
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QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 09:02 AM) Kahnle is a bad two months away from being back to worthless. If he's the next Andrew Miller we made a mistake, but now that we have no bullpen we should be on track for the #1 overall draft pick. Can't see this team winning many more games down the stretch given our rotation, bullpen and offense. That is a basis-less prediction. That's like saying Aaron Judge has had a great first half, but is 2 months away from being an average big league outfielder again. Not comparing the two, but simply saying it's silly to discard the real improvements both players have made this season.
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QUOTE (RockRaines @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 08:52 AM) Yes, nothing amps me up like a 28 year old reliever prospect. What makes you think odds of Kahnle keeping it up is slim to none? The fact that he's upped his FB velocity to 98 MPH, his increased his swing strike % and is amongst league leaders, his extremely low FIP, xFIP, or his relatively high BABIP? Oh, and he's going to be cheap for the next 3 and a half years, while it may take the same time for Rutherford reach the big leagues, if he does.
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QUOTE (iamshack @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 07:06 AM) Yeah, I tend to agree with your take here. It's very easy to start bundling anything left of value that we have to go after "that one last guy," but you probably are going to lose out on additional value had we been patient and taken a calculated risk. I find it difficult to accept the argument that a guy that is currently dominating at the ML level is likely to regress to nothing, but simultaneously throw a ton of stock into a kid from A-ball becoming a good mlb player. I argued that it might be worth it to do this for a guy like Robles, and so if the White Sox truly believe in Rutherford, then it is difficult for me to criticize the FO. But I agree with you and some others here - we likely overpaid to get "our guy," and I truly do think Kahnle has a chance to be a pretty dominant reliever for the Yankees as they make their run over the next several years. Yes, the only reason to accept a deal like this is if Rutherford is your guy, and you value him higher than the industry ranks him. (Trading 3 quality ML'er for one top 40 guy is not a good return). The bolded part nails it. I also find it funny that some guys want to treat it as if we traded Robertson for Clarkin, when in the Nationals thread they wanted guys like Kieboom, Soto, etc for Robertson. Clearly we also did not get good return on Robertson either. I like Rutherford a lot, but still feel like this isn't quite enough. A top 10 guy like Andujar, Adams, Sheffield or Mateo instead of Polo would have made this deal much more palatable.
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QUOTE (Jerksticks @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 03:39 AM) Yea but I think ultimately, as others have posted, the Sox wanted to cash-in on Kahnle and avoid NateJones-style risk. And as Hahn mentioned in the presser, Rutherford is a guy the Sox have been really high on for some time. Seems like a perfect storm of being able to get the guy you want for only bullpen arms and shedding a BUNCH of salary. Can't dismiss the money savings- just the other day it seemed like the Sox would have to kick in a bunch of money just to get B&C level prospects for DRob and Frazsh. The cost is selling Kahnle at maybe .80 on the dollar. The plus side is no more Kahnle risk, the guy you want, and about 20M dollars. Not bad for .80. I get both sides and I hated the deal at first, but now I'm all aboard. The other guys have serious upside too! I don't like that mindset, that we need to trade every reliever as soon as they become good, but before they become great. Nate Jones has always been an injury prone. Same cannot be said about Kahnle. He's also have relatively low mileage on his arm, and his delivery doesn't put him at more risk than others. With that mindset, we may as well find new relievers every year because chance of them imploding the next year is so great. Anyways, I think in this case, the potential return outweighs the risk. I'm also not sure if we're going to put the salary saving in use. We're not expected to compete next year, and the FA class is weak. And we can't overspend on international signing like we did with Robert either.
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QUOTE (Alexeihyeess @ Jul 19, 2017 -> 12:06 AM) Sox killed the Yankees on this trade. They only took Frazier to spite the Red Sox, and seeing what JD Martinez fetched there's not a lot of interest in average-ish second half rentals so even if he was only used to grease this deal its worth it. Robertson is nowhere near the big relievers traded last year, you really think his stock improved that much from the Trade That Wasn't which would've netted the Sox Luzardo and Ward? Clarkin or Polo alone are worth Robertson. Kahnle for Rutherford is robbery. Robertson for two C level prospects? While he's not Chapman or even Andrew Miller, you are undervaluing him a lot here, especially with him being one of the few true closers available for trade. There are already several teams called about Robertson, and Yankees were bidding against the Red Sox here. Remember when most people expected a Top 100 prospect for Robertson just a couple days ago? That should have been the target. Let's not move that target to justify this trade. We also traded Kahnle prematurely, given how underwhelming the total value we got in return. There is always a chance he's only a flash in the pan, but his peripherals and stuff says it's unlikely. He's making real improvements to his velocity and and absolutely shatters his previous swinging strike%. Both FB velocity and SwingStr% are among top 10 in the league. FIP and xFIP suggest he's elite. He's actually been unlucky with a BABIP much higher than career norm. There is a real chance he could be Andrew Miller (or close to it), if we waited it, we could have gotten a much better return next year.
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QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 03:19 PM) You think the Tigers aren't going to ask the moon for Martinez? They probably asked for Rodgers. If the Sox can sell Avi for a good price now and undercut the Tigers while doing it, they'll be doing the next competitive roster a huge favor. I guess your question is answered now?
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QUOTE (Dam8610 @ Jul 18, 2017 -> 02:46 PM) Why do they want J.D. Martinez? Avi isn't Martinez. Martinez has a more proven track record and as a rental player commands less of a return. Also, other teams in the division have called on Martinez, Rox may just be driving up the price for division rivals.
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Why would Rockies want Avi, they have a crowded outfield as is. Parra, Blackmon, Tapia, Desmond, Cargo, and David Dahl just started a rehabbed assignment and could be back in a few weeks. I think they have more pressing needs.
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**World Soxtalk Championship Wrestling Thread V**
thxfrthmmrs replied to Brian's topic in A and J's Olde Tyme Sports Pub
Compared to other segments on the Network? I think it's one of the most popular and talked about segments. -
**World Soxtalk Championship Wrestling Thread V**
thxfrthmmrs replied to Brian's topic in A and J's Olde Tyme Sports Pub
I enjoyed it a lot, and it's gotta be the most watched thing on the Network outside of PPV and NXT. 205 Live is uninteresting and just lost Aries. I think it's a combination of things for Vince, but if I have to guess what triggered it it's when Sasha went off on Alexa after GBOF. Feelings must have been hurt. -
**World Soxtalk Championship Wrestling Thread V**
thxfrthmmrs replied to Brian's topic in A and J's Olde Tyme Sports Pub
So Talking Smack has been cancelled because Vince feels it's not best for business... The man needs to go away. -
**World Soxtalk Championship Wrestling Thread V**
thxfrthmmrs replied to Brian's topic in A and J's Olde Tyme Sports Pub
So Talking Smack has been cancelled because Vince feels it's not best for business... The man needs to go away. -
The catching position in the lower level is probably the strongest of any position. Alfaro, Skoug, Hickman, Perez, Cooper, and Colina are all legit or fringe prospects and are having a pretty good start to the year. I'm hoping one or two of them graduates to Low A soon. But of course, there's a lot more to a catcher than just hitting the ball. Can't tell how those guys are progressing outside of that department.
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Don't know what's happening to Alex Call. He's extended his stay in AZL way beyond expectation. He's now an ugly 2 for 47 down there. It's not like he's striking out a ton, but just hitting an insane number of ground balls. P.S. He's blocking our water polo star down there.