professa

QUOTE (raBBit @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 10:44 PM) One of their best prospects is going to start '14 in AAA and he is arguably the best defensive catcher in the minors. The idea would be to trade Castro coming off of a great year and have Max Stassi replace him shortly after. Didn't catch that, thanks for pointing that out. Still would probably cost Q to get a guy like that which IMO is not worth it, rather just take Alex Jackson in this upcoming draft and go with stop gaps until then.

this team will be fun to watch, no doubt. They may not be good in terms of wins and losses, but boy will it be easier to watch games in August and September than it was last year. As much as we bag Hawk, he was right when he said this team will be more exciting in 2014 than in 2013. Still think this is a 70-75 win team with a ceiling of 80 wins.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 10:10 PM) I think more than Hahn would be willing to give up. He's a fit no doubt, but the year he's coming off of + the years of control = too much to trade for. He's a key piece in the 'stros rebuilding efforts too, so unless they were getting someone who provides a similar ML value to them, it would seem like a lateral move. He would be a nice piece tho.

Castro and Lucroy could only be acquired if we gave up Q imo, as I assume each team would look for ML ready, cost controlled talent, which is not worth it . Would turn our rotation into a weakness. Jaso would be easier to acquire, but the concussion stuff scares me. One blow to the head and he's done.

QUOTE (Quinarvy @ Dec 17, 2013 -> 08:35 PM) Would anyone deal Sanchez, Beck and Thompson and would it do it? In a heartbeat. The only guy I'd hate to lose would be Beck, but Grandal has shown he can put up a mid .800 OPS in the majors. If he's shown it, he's got it in him. Sanchez offers no use to this organization (Semien and Anderson block him) except maybe as a back up middle infielder. Thompson hasn't done s*** in the minors to prove he could be a major leaguer someday. Switch hitting, 24 y/o major league all star potential catchers don't grow on trees and to trade three unknowns for that is a steal imo. gotta take a risk sometime. This guy could be just as good as Wieters, and is a former first rounder so you know it's there. 1. Eaton 2. Alexei 3. Abreu 4. Dunn 5. Grandal 6. Garcia 7. Viciedo 8. Davidson 9. Beckham Mighty good young core to build around

QUOTE (bear_brian @ Dec 16, 2013 -> 08:50 PM) Alexi is a plus defender, was arguably one of our best hitters, will be a mentor to Abreu, and comes to play every day. He is only 32, has a very fair contract. The Diamond Challenge fantasy baseball metrics have him rated as the fourth most productive shortstop in all of baseball. If we trade him, we had better get a LOT more than a young catcher. I believe we should be using Alexei as a complement to all of our young ballplayers. It is extremely difficult to find a shortstop that combines his offensive and defensive skills - they are a rare breed. Agree completely. One of the reasons Abreu cited for coming here was tank and alexei. There's no demand for Alexei right now. Don't trade him just to trade him. I don't think Semien is ready yet to be honest, and another year in the minors wouldn't hurt. Semien should be filling Beckham's spot, not Alexei's, so if Beckham sucks bring up Semien and have him start. Trade Alexei next offseason, when we actually have a sample to see if Semien can produce consistently.

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Dec 16, 2013 -> 07:18 PM) I really think that De Aza will be the next guy to go. And I think it's very likely one of Ramirez/Beckham is moved to open up a spot for Semien now. Let's assume it's Ramirez, we could be looking at something like this next year: 1. Adam Eaton, CF (25) 2. Marcus Semien, SS (23) 3. Avisail Garcia, RF (22) 4. Jose Abreu, 1B (27) 5. Dunn/Konerko, DH 6. Dayan Viciedo, LF (25) 7. Matt Davidson, 3B (23) 8. Insert Catcher Here 9. Gordon Beckham, 2B (27) Outside of the DH spot, everyone in the lineup is 27 or younger with some potential. If you can get someone like Grandal for catcher, that lineup quickly becomes very interesting. Gotta love what Hahn has added in the past 6 months. Agreed. Even 2-3 years down the road look at this potential lineup, even without any free agent signings 1. Adam Eaton, CF 2. Tim Anderson, SS 3. Avisail Garcia, RF 4. Jose Abreu, 1B 5. Courtney Hawkins, LF 6. Dayan Viciedo, DH 7. Alex Jackson, C (Taken with 3rd pick this year) 8. Matt Davidson, 3B ( See him as a .230/.240 guy w/ 20HR/80RBIs, which is obviously better than what we have and at 8 in the order, that pop is nice) 9. Marcus Semien, 2B That's impressive, and if a couple of these guys don't pan out, we can always sign a FA. Really optimistic Rick has done an outstanding job. Has added 4 impact bats since he took over.

De Aza for Sean Marshall could work, especially cuz I doubt Ryan Ludwick will be anything like he was in 2012

Lil off topic, but in terms of trading De Aza, I say keep him. has a .742 career OPS vs RHP (.750 off LH surprisingly) and is really an ideal 4th outfielder since he hits both lefties and righties well. He can spell tank against tough righties and eaton against tough lefties. Then again, rick may wanna give jordan and look and trade de aza for a young LH reliever that we desperately need

How did the D-backs lose the deal? They had two center fielders (Pollock and Eaton) and have a surplus of SP to acquire a 30-40 HR bat. The Dbacks had Aaron Hill slated in as their 4 hitter before the deal. They had a surplus and addressed a weakness.

Sale and Ramirez for Didi Gregorius, Skaggs, AJ Pollock, and Matt Davidson I would pull the trigger on that. What we would get in return would, in my mind, put up a greater combined WAR than Sale and Alexei would. With this trade you have a great young core who is major league ready. Pollock Didi Dunn Abreu Viciedo Garcia Davidson Beckham Flowers/Phegley Quintana Danks Hector Skaggs Rienzo With that you have 1 player over 30 in your rotation and lineup

Salty 2007-2013: .738 Career WAR: 6.2 Projected Salary: 10-12 million Lobaton 2013 OPS: .714 2013 WAR: 1.4 Projected Salary: Around league minimum Only took 2013 for Lobaton b/c it was the only year he had 200+ PA I'd rather save the 30-40 million it'd cost to get Salty and go with a cheaper option like Lobaton or Jaso, or try out Flow/Phegley for one more year. You rebuild through smart trades and the farm, not FA signings. Salty would not make a whole lot of sense considering where we are at the moment. You sign someone like Salty when you are close to competing, and need to fill a hole or two. We too many holes at C, 2B, 3B, LF/CF (depends if Tank and ADA can give you 1.5 WAR+), and in the pen to justify a large signing like Salty. Abreu was different because he is 26, and it is rare to get someone with his potential for under 100 million. Gain some high draft picks, develop the farm, play the kids. http://www.soxtalk.com/forums/index.php?sh...d=2897873 We're not the Yanks or the RSox. We have to be like the Cardinals, whose core is their players they developed (molina, adams, carpenter, craig, jay, not to mention their pitching staff) and add guys like Holliday, Peralta, and Beltran when they're close to competing.

This is like my 4th projected lineup this year, but I'm bored in class and my mind keeps changing. Moves: Non Tender Tyler Flowers Carlos Sanchez, + for John Jaso Sign Matt Thornton 1yr 3 million Hector Santiago, Jeff Keppinger, and cash for Brett Lawrie Sign Gavin Floyd 1yr 2 million as insurance Lineup 1. Jaso 2. Lawrie 3. Abreu 4. Dunn 5. Tank 6. Avi Garcia 7. De Aza 8. Alexei 9. Beckham Bench 1. Phegley 2. Leury 3. Jordan 4. Gillaspie Rotation 1. Sale 2. Quintana 3. Johnson 4. Danks 5. Rienzo 6. Floyd Pen 1. Reed 2. Jones 3. Lindstrom 4. Thornton 5. Webb 6. Petricka 7. Veal I think our lineup would be strongest with Jaso at the top. I like ADA at the bottom would add some pop and speed. We may have to add more to lure Lawrie away from Toronto.

QUOTE (woods of ypres @ Dec 2, 2013 -> 12:34 PM) They'll probably want Quintana. Possibly, but their rotation seems pretty set, with a few quality guys battling for the last spot in the rotation. If I were them, I'd ask us for something to the tune of Avi Garcia, Beckham, Erik Johnson, + specs for Headley and Logan Forsythe. Just as a starting pt. I know they're looking for a huge haul. I wouldn't do a deal for him unless a contract extension was in place. The only way I'd send Q is if we got Cory Luebke back.

Saw that we went after Josh Johnson according to MLBTR so maybe we are likely to flip Hector for a position player and sign a pitcher like Danny Haren or Scott Feldman to fill out the rotation.

Good article on Salty...didn't realize he hit 40 doubles last year...If some of those turned into HR's at the cell...Really hope we sign this kid http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/11/...YauK/story.html

I think if we just sign Salty and maybe a bullpen arm or two it puts us in a very good position. Salty gives you a reliable catcher with high end potential offensively. He's shown he can provide 25 HR's, albeit with a low average. Even if he gives us what he gave Boston last year that's still a 3 WAR player which is near the top 1/3 in the MLB. I think he will succeed here especially cuz he'll have a bigger offensive role than in Boston. But at least you have a reliable catcher for the next 4 years. I would also like to sign Michael Young. I know he's declining, but I think his knowledge could be extremely valuable to the young guys. He kinda replaces Paulie in that role, plus he is more versatile and can play 2nd, 3rd, and 1st . Give Conor a chance this season and if he doesn't improve, trade him along with a SP for Lawrie or someone next offseason. If we get lucky and everyone plays to their potential, this could be an exciting 85 win team, possibly more if we add at the deadline. If it doesn't work out and we end up more around the 75 win mark, the season could still be a success solely based on the young guys improving. With Hahn as our GM, I think everything is brighter because we're gonna do this the right way. Also, keep Dunn till the deadline, I could see him having a type of year we thought we were getting when we signed him. Sign: Crain (2-10), Scott Downs(1-4), and Salty(4/36-40) 1. De Aza (270/15/60) 2 WAR 2. Ramirez (280/10/70) 2.5 3. Abreu (260/30/95) 3 4. Dunn (230/40/100) 1.5 5. Garcia (290/20/75) 2.5 6. Viciedo (260/25/70) 1 7. Salty (240/20/70) 2.5 8. Gillaspie (260/15/50) 1.5 9. Beckham (265/10/55) 1.5 Bench 1. Keppinger .25 WAR 2. Young (3b and DH vs tough lefties) .25 3. Garcia .5 WAR 4. Flowers .5 Rotation: 1. Sale 5 WAR 2. Quintana 3.5 WAR 3. Danks 3 WAR 4. Johnson 2 WAR 5. Santiago 2 WAR Pen 3 WAR CL Reed SU Crain SU Jones MR Downs MR Lindstrom MR Petricka/Webb MR/LR Veal/Rienzo Great pitching staff and an offense with upside (reasonable projections in parenthesis for offense) I think my WAR are pretty fair for the most part. With these projections our total WAR is 38.5, which gives us between 85-90 wins

I'm more for the idea of rebuilding, and if every player plays to his potential, we become a contender. If we don't compete, not a big deal, at least hopefully we saw some players progress. 1. Sign an OF to spell De Aza and Tank. Options that I like are Gutierrez, Young, and Sizemore. Go one year with an option in case one of them goes back to old form 2. As much as I would like to see Phegley/Flowers develop into avg Major Leaguers, it's tough for me to see that happening. Sign Gio Soto to split time with one of them and trade/DFA the other 3. Sign a reliable reliever: this could be crain, downs, chris perez (hasn't been that reliable but love his upside), or someone of that nature. 2 yrs max 4. Sign a cheap reliever that has a chance to turn it around (Aardsma, Dotel, Farnsworth) 5. Don't trade pitching...YET. If we trade Quintana/Santiago this offseason, and Danks or Johnson end up sucking, then youve turned a strength into a weakness. If you keep Quintana/Santiago then you have 3 fairly reliable starters, and can live with an average Danks and Johnson. 6. Give Gillaspie a chance...but have a reliable backup option... could be Semien, or a guy like Uribe This gives us best case scenario and the players playing to their potential... (AVG/OPS HR RBI) 1. De Aza (270/750 15 60) 2. Beckham (290/800 15 75) 3. Abreu (300/950 40 110) 4. Dunn (240/850 40 100) 5. Garcia (290/800 20 80) 6. Viciedo (270/775 30 85) 7. Soto (275/775 15 60) 8. Gillaspie(260/725 15 50) 9. Ramirez (285/725 15 70) Too lazy to do pitchers, but thats a solid lineup if everyone plays to their potential. Unfortunately there's like a 1% chance of this happening Makes me kinda optimistic tho.

Sandoval is going to be really hard to acquire...SF has limited offense as is and I dont think giving up one of our young pitchers is a good idea in the long run for a guy with some injury issues and the last 2 years has put up mid .700 OPS with poor defense. Rather try out Semien or give Conor another look. We're not even competing right now. We won't resign him after this year most likely (probably gonna command 5/80) and gave up a cost controlled pitcher because of it. Not the right move at this time imo.

This is how I look at the signing: Worst case: he ends up like Dayan Viciedo and has a ton of talent but is streaky and can't put it together ~ .230/.300/.450 20-25 HR Best Case: A right handed Ryan Howard in his prime ~ .280/.400/.500 40-45 HR If JDA performs to his worse case scenario above, those stats would still warrant a 8-10 million/yr deal on the open market. His best case scenario would get him 20-25 million. I think this is a fair deal overall when you consider that. Obviously he could pull a Dunn which would obviously not make it worth it but I foresee him putting up something like .260/.350/.475 with 30 HR. Thats 12-15 million on the open market. We are paying him just over 10/year, probably less with the signing bonus. I like this signing, it's exciting and worth the risk. Better than bringing in a Morales/Hart/Morneau and have to commit that same amount/year, although it is safer, but likely with less upside.

I'm a big advocate of some low risk signings that could bring back high value and if they don't pan out who cares because the monetary contribution will be very low and we can trade them at the deadline rather than signing Grandy and McCann and have them potentially flop on us and have to be stuck with them . This will give us a chance of competing and fielding an exciting team. Signings: JD Abreu 6/68 Gio Soto: 1/4.5 with an option Chris Young: 1/2 million .800+ career OPS vs LH Juan Uribe 2/12 Ryan Vogelsong 1/1million w/ option Oliver Perez: 1/2.5 w/ option Jesse Crain 2/10 million Trade Hector for a solid top 50-75 prospect. No more risky trades. Get a sure thing that will contribute 2-4 WAR in the future. Rather have that than getting a high risk 50/50 chance the kid will pan out. Lineup: 1. ADA/Chris Young 2. Alexei Ramirez 3. Jose Dariel Abreu 4. Adam Dunn/Gio Soto vs LHP 5. Avisail Garcia 6. Dayan Viciedo 7. Gio Soto/Phegley/Flowers 8. Conor Gillaspie/Juan Uribe 9. Gordon Beckham Bench Chris Young Leury Garcia/ Jordan Danks Uribe/Gillaspie Phegley/ Flowers (Really would like Semien to start in AAA, do not want to rush this kid. Want him to have at least 1/2 Season at AAA) Rotation: 1. Sale 2. Q 3. Danks 4. Johnson 5. Reinzo/Vogelsong Pen: Reed Crain Jones Perez Lindstrom Petricka/Webb/Veal pick 2 These signings allows a retooling while staying semi competitive. Obviously we may choose to go with semien/gillaspie at 3b or try phegley and flowers for one more year. I just think the above team would be exciting with some guys that have the potential to bring back high value. The payroll would be around 80 million which leaves us a lot of room still

QUOTE (DirtySox @ Jun 6, 2013 -> 09:25 PM) Laumann himself notes that Anderson might not stick at SS. I'd love to see him in CF personally. http://www.chicagotribune.com/videogallery...or-on-No-1-pick I agree, it would fill a huge hole if TA can move to CF and then Sanchez can move into the SS role . That's a big IF though, esp if Sanchez doesn't pan out, but if your offense is good enough, we can just settle for a defensive wiz FA if Sanchez is a bust

Actually like our prospects for the future in terms of our offense and Pitching Few years down the road... C:Phegly/Flowers/FA 1B: Viciedo 2B:Beckham/Sanchez SS: Anderson 3B: Gillaspie/Sanchez LF: FA CF: FA/Thompson RF: Hawkins DH:FA SP 1:Sale 2:Quintana 3: Santiago 4: Johnson/Beck/Snodgress 5:Danks/FA/Draft Pick/ Diamond in the Rough Pen Reed Jones FA's/Minor leaguers Obviously a few holes to fill but honestly not as bad as some people make it out to be. We do have some good assets and with the right management we could see some future success. The infield and rotation is pretty much set barring injuries/busts/fallbacks(Gillaspie/Beckham). We always do a pretty good job assembling a pen so that shouldn't be an issue. All we need is some power in LF/CF/DH and we should have a pretty athletic and dynamic team. However, if guys like Hawkins and Anderson falter we could have some problems. That's why it's so important the next couple years to build up org. depth through the draft and hopefully this upcoming trading deadline. Could be a cornerstone player away from seriously competing in the next 4-5 years. Gotta have some optimism for the future, esp the way this season is going. Alright, gotta stop procrastinating and write this 2,000 word term paper. Wish me luck... The Professa