raBBit

Vargas was a clubhouse issue in NY.

The ultimate jinx

That's true, lots of hard contact and bottom 4% in exit velocity for Diaz. Still, I think its premature to rule out the possibility of there being value in the move. It all depends on the price going to New York of course.

He's 13th for all qualified relievers in K-BB% striking over 13.7/9 while walking less than 3/9. He leads all relievers in BABIP. Safe to say he's had some back luck.

Sure. That's totally a fair point. Your prior argument was convoluted with the "full price" and misuse of depreciation.

Yeah I am not sure I follow this. You're using "full price" and "depreciation" as pretty general terms. Full price is dependent on what the asking team wants. That can be in excess of the player's fair market value or short of the their fair market value. Depreciation is related to carrying value. At the end of the day, the market decides what someone is worth. The Cubs offered the best package on the market for Quintana so they got him. In they year of acquisition he pitched better for the Cubs than he did the Sox so I am not sure the asset had "fallen apart." "I feel like getting Edwin Diaz would require paying nearly full price for Edwin Diaz, as the Cubs did for Quintana, and there's a risk that you're paying full price for an asset that has depreciated." Again, I don't know what "full price" is. If the Sox acquired Edwin Diaz they would establish what his fair market value. Fair market value is essentially a player's carrying value adjusted for the market place (how many people in need? how many similar players available? Timing, etc.) and adjusted for a player's reputation. Saying you're worried the Sox acquire that has depreciated doesn't make all that much sense. It'd be like buying a 2016 Camry for full 2016 new Camry sticker price and then being like, "Oh this car actually has 50,000 miles on it." I think you just don't think Diaz is as good as the market participants may think he is.

There are no parallels that I see. Sox sold on Quintana at the absolute height of his value for an outstanding return during the start of the rebuild phase. This would be the Sox buying low on a great talent just prior to their window of contention opening.

What do you expect to hear? Sox are "taking it easy" on him to lessen the opportunity for him to play in a way to improve his grievance case. Expect a day off every day of the week. God forbid he has a mistep running the bases, Sox might shut him down for the year to be safe if that happened.

There are some pros to calling up Robert right now as many have outlined. The three common themes: 1) Robert gets to see MLB pitching now - If that's the case can get challenged and become better served to prepare in the offseason for 2020. 2) Robert wouldn't have to forgo the first 15-20 games or whatever it is next April - Team is supposed to be compete 2020 and 162 > 145. He could be the difference between a game or two in April if they had to hold him down. 3) This team can grow together and "learn" how to win together. ------- To me, #1 is the biggest deal. Robert isn't matched in minor league baseball. He may struggle for a couple weeks now that he's had a few series in the IL or he may continue to dominate, either way, over the course of a full season this guy is going to light the league up. MLB pitching is a whole other world. His development would be best served if he's up here seeing how MLB pitchers attack him, learning to adjust and to gameplan and adjust again, getting a taste of the MLB regimen/process, etc. #2 is something that only can happen. If you hold him back and he tears an acl in spring training his clock has already started. If he has a nagging injury in ST and starts the year on the DL, his clock is already started. There is some risk on the front end to get an unguaranteed contribution on the back end. He can come up on Opening Day and start the year 5-60. He can also start in AAA and have the team come out blazing. Are they best served with him in the lineup? Definitely. But the return in a small sample is not worth the upside of attaining another year on contol. I would argue 162 games of Robert's play in 2025 is more valuable than 15-20 games of the (basically/probably) rookie Robert in 2018. #3 is nothing to me. The amount of turnover from the July 2019 roster to the May of 2020 roster will be tremendous. This team is going to have to learn to win together on the fly. You're going to have these guys as relative locks for 2020 Yoan Moncada Eloy Jimenez Lucas Giolito Tim Anderson Reynaldo Lopez Dylan Cease Aaron Bummer Alex Colome James McCann Leury Garcia Jace Fry That's 11 guys likely to be back on the roster next year without Abreu. That's assuming Bummer/Colome/Fry as well as Leury don't get traded in the next week. Yolmer/Cordell/Herrera/Covey/Marshall all have varying shots to be make the roster but not locks by any means. After looking at those pros, I still think we're better served holding him back until next year to get the extra service year even if that's not an acceptable opinion. It's not as simple as 7>6, but it's almost there. I'd like to hear more supporting the contrary though. In the end, the Sox have been pretty "by the book" on this stuff and we'll see how strong their hand is. I think this is going to be a PR nightmare that starts soon and carries on for at least 6 months.

Harvin Mendoza 2-3 with BB. Season walk rate is 11.6% wOBA of .416 and wRC+ of 146. He's in his age 20 season and has hit in every season (2 in DSL, now 2 in AZL). Challenge this kid.

I would hope we add more elsewhere if he is set to be the RF addition but I agree that he makes sense for a few reasons. If you think Cole/Grandal/Oznua ++ is doable you're going to be very disappointed. Cole is the best SP on the market. He's going to have a dozen options and get a contract near 200M. Only one team gets him. Grandal is the only top tier catcher available and great solutions behind the plate dont often hit the market. Ozuna is a good middle of the order bat. This a whole lot for one offseason with a generally weak free agent class. I think Sox should be in on Grandal and while I wouldn't target Ozuna it wouldn't be that "out there" if the Sox looked into him. That said, Cole (along with Rendon), is the prize of the offseason. The Sox don't just decide the want him and get him. I would be completely shocked if the Red Sox moved Benintendi. That said, the level of creativity and thought you put forth to make some scenario that could almost be feasible for both sides is impressive. Very nice post.

They need to prolific because they're not getting Rendon/Cole. 1) They'll sign Jason Castro to catch with McCann. 2) They sign or trade for a rightfielder 3) They should sign a left-handed reserve with all the righties on the lineup but we'll see there. I assume they end up filling that need internally but I would love Scooter Gennett on the more expensive side or Brad Miller on the cheaper side. 4) 1 or 2 SPs 5) At least two relievers.

Yolmer is getting to the point of be inexplicable. He should be with Castillo on the way out.

For sure. And to be clear, I Wasn't expecting Robert in the top 50 list. Given the prospects named in the honorable mention though, Robert belongs.

AJ Reed has a wRC+ of 155.

Yoan Moncada is pretty decent.

Giolito and Kopech were also in the honorable mention column. Shocked by the exclusion of Robert.

I'd be interested in talking to STL about Carlos Martinez. If his arm passes a physical I think that's a great risk. Cardinals signed him to a very team friendly contract.

He's a pretty great 4th outfielder. While I agree with posters above that he doesn't fit on this team, he's kind of refreshing to watch with all the crap we've thrown out there the last several years. Professional at bats, steady defense, \aggressive but not reckless base running. Just a smart baseball player.

Given how he's shown at BHam I think he gets a taste of Charlotte this year for sure.

in regards to the title: stay the course. Sell. Sell high on bullpen pitchers always.

Plus Longenhagen didn't account for the fact that they also just added a top 30 prospect in Vaughn.

I dont think anyone is basing that off of 30 MLB at bats. He's a flawed player.

The respectful thing to do isn't in the realm of possibility. Yolmer is not a commodity. Sox would get an A ball pitcher with little intrigue at best.

That's a fair point and I've had that same thought re: the Sox and Escobar. The similarities between the two, as prospects, are very apparent. That said, EE put together offensive improvements in his age 25 season. Yolmer has taken a step back from his past two seasons.