ChiSox59

(Nods in frustrated agreement)

The last 5 season, Conforto has averaged 2.82 fWAR per season. That includes Covid season with only 54 GP, and 2017 and 2021 where he appeared in 109 and 125 games, respectively. On a per 162 basis, that is a 3.86 fWAR player. To suggest he isn't worth $15M-20 AAV solely based on 2021 is quite silly. The only reason he isn't getting a mega deal is due to 2021. Conforto goes back to who he has always been, and he'd a bargain at $18M AAV.

Point well taken, but no one (even the owners) are suggesting getting rid of the minor leagues. We're talking about a 16.67% reduction. 150 minor leaguers per org still provides plenty of washouts to go be coaches and steward the next the next generation of players. Not to mention all the guys that played collegiately and didn't have what it takes to hack it in pro ball aren't eliminated from being travel ball coaches because they didn't play a couple seasons riding pine in the Pioneer league. I am not that passionate about it, but I don't think a 16.67% reduction in the size of the minor leagues is the death kneel to baseball. There are plenty of other things that have resulted in today's youth having a lack of interest in the game, and a small reduction in minor league washouts being available to coach is pretty far down the list.

Problem with that plan is that you can't rely on Engel to be healthy. He's proven that. So when he gets hurt, now your RF is Leury. And relying on Sheets to be your everyday DH would be a mistake. We go from a good amount of depth to very little when you trade Vaughn and don't sign a RF.

Am I the only one that doesn't find reducing the size of minor leagues and the draft that big of a deal? Its so hard to make it to the big leagues. There are so many guys that play pro affiliated ball that have next to zero chance of ever making it to the big leagues. Would the elimination of 30 minors leaguers per org make it so that 1 out of every couple hundred guys that beat all odds never gets the chance? Maybe. But its also probably the best for the vast majority of these guys that never make it out of rookie and A ball. They never had a real chance anyway - may was well get on with your life while you're young. Get a job that is year-round so you're not trying to make ends meet each winter with odd jobs with no upside. Its not like making $18k a year playing baseball in what is effectively a deadend job for most low end draft pick and the undrafted is going to get you to a better place in life. Its kind of a hard reality, but its true. The owners probably have the wrong reasons for doing it, but at the end of the day, they're just doing all those guys a favor that waste a few years of their life chasing something they never had a chance at anyway.

Yeah. Its insane. Its really only a couple guys here tho, so I am going to try to tune it out moving forward. For some reason, just bugs me. AV is going to be an awesome offensive player, and I was impressed with how he looked in LF throughout the season. Again, no gold glover, but plenty capable. Was he a black hole at times? Yeah, he was. But its to be expected. He's going to improve immensely in 22. This argument also makes it sound like I don't like Gavin. I do. I just don't think we should put our eggs in that basket yet. He's a very useful depth. He does something we sorely need. But he has zero defensive ability, and we quite simply have better bats that need to DH. I am just not sold that his SSS in 21 is going to translate. He's never hit for much power in the minors, and I just don't see him as a high upside piece. I keep using the Brandon Moss comp if all goes well, and continue to think that's pretty much an upper quartile projection for Sheets. Not someone you turn AV into a weak side platoon player for.

To the last point, there is basically no chance Sheets is on the roster and AV isn’t assuming health. But I’ll just leave it there and agree to disagree on the rest. We’ll find out soon enough.

The only reason Conforto isn’t going to be a well north of $100M player is because of his down season. He’s been one of the best hitters in the game over the last half decade and he fills a ton of team needs. You’re overthinking this.

I am not overly concerned about a former golden spikes winner's 298 PA sample size against RHP in a year in which: 1) he was facing MLB pitching for the first time in his career; 2) quite literally did not play baseball in 2020; 3) had zero at bats above A ball in his career; 4) struggled with a back injury 2nd half of the season; 5) had a 4-5 week period in the summer where he was our most effective hitter before he got hurt and; 6) the only reason he was out there to begin the season was due to the guy he was replacing injuring himself because he is an awful OF. The sky is the limit for AV offensively. Completely unconcerned with 2021 results. I also don't think its fair to call him "not an OF". He was plenty serviceable out there as it compares to LF league-wise while playing a position he hadn't played in like a decade. He did an admirable job in LF and I don't see why he couldn't continue to play out there and improve with more experience.

I don't see how you can do that without any charges.

I mean, Vaughn is the incredibly easy answer between Sheets and Vaughn. IDGAF about SSS splits you laid out from 21. Making AV a weakside platoon player at this point in his career to cater to Sheets would be an astronomically stupid decision. Sheets is just a guy that happens to have a skillset the Sox badly lack. Vaughn is a future cornerstone of this franchise. There is no chance he is not on the OD roster if he's healthy. I am hopeful the Sox have learned their lesson with Eloy and mostly DH him moving forward. He can play LF once or twice a week to keep him happy and keep his bat in lineup in interleague games, but I am not running him out there as the primary LF any longer. I would play Vaughn in LF most of the time for the next couple seasons. He graded out around average defensively among his peers in LF. He's not going to win a GG, but hes fine and can improve. He's not a danger to himself and others. IIRC, you are one of the posters here that despises AV, so I suspect you'll disagree. THat's fine. That all said, based on how the Sox played Eloy when he returned from his injury, do I expect them to play him in LF consistently. Not how I would do it, but oh well. At least don't double down on stupid and flank him in RF with two 1B, one of which is quite literally a guy I would hesitate to plug into RF defensively on my beer league softball team (Sheets). I am also operating under the assumption that the Sox sign a real RF. If they don't, well....the calculus changes. But there is basically no way to avoid a league worst OF defense with 2 of Eloy/Vaughn/Sheets are playing the OF daily, and you're consistency putting your best asset in Robert in danger. Doesn't make a lick of sense. Just sign Conforto and let the chips fall where they may. There will be plenty of at bats to go around.

Good. 12 teams is already too many.

Pretty simple really. If Sheets in DHing, Eloy and Vaughn are both in the OF. That is an easy no for me. If Sheets is in RF, Eloy or Vaughn are in LF. Again, easy no for me. Only 1 of those 3 should be playing OF at any given time with any sort of consistency. The Sox need to sign a left handed hitting RF that is passable defensively. There is one guy out there that just so happens to be a near perfect fit.

Agreed.

I think that would be a horrible mistake. He has 2 option years left. We're in the midst of our window. Let's not waste it trying to make a strong-side platoon player out of a guy with very little pedigree and minor league success. Not to mention he is a bull in a china shop in RF, he's a poor 1B and we have plenty of those guys to go around anyway. What could possibly go wrong? His lefty stick is nice. Not suggesting we get rid of him. But any scenario that involves Gavin playing most of the time against RHP completely punts OF defense which I am very much again. Even if he DHs. Sheets will get plenty of MLB at bats in 22 even if he doesn't break camp with a starting role.

Sure, he can DH and play some 1B here and there. There aren't as many moving parts as you seem to think. I guess when you're trying to jam Sheets into an everyday role it gets a bit crowded, but that's the beauty of depth. Gavin should be in AAA playing everyday until an injury. He's a nice fallback option. He should not be shoehorned into an everyday role from the get go, and if he is, we're all going to be disappointed. Eloy and Vaughn can cover LF and DH. Grandal is going to catch most days. Abreu is going to play 1B most days. Whoever we sign to play RF is going to play RF most days. When Grandal needs to DH or play 1B, Vaughn is probably most likely to get the breather against the tough righty. IF Sox are dumb enough to run Eloy out in LF everyday, it won't take long for this little problem to solve itself when he runs into a wall in mid April.

I literally just said he's not a good fit. But he's miles and miles and miles better than Sheets. Vaughn is my LF. Eloy DH.

I've always been a fan of Meadows, but I don't love the fit. He's checks a good amount of boxes for the Sox, but he's a very poor defender. We need at least an average RF defensively. Wouldn't be a terrible fallback option if Sox strike out on Conforto, but there are other trade options I'd explore first. Even though I don't really want him, I'd much prefer just giving Castellanos $ than providing the Rays a chance to fleece us .

I think Sox at most add a vet #5 piece to compete with Keuchel. They’re not going to just acquire a mid rotation starter they don’t need so they can pay Keuchel $18M to be a mop up man. Maybe in June if he’s terrible they’ll add someone, but I really don’t think a legit SP is getting added before OD. More like 1 year scrap heap signing type. JMO of course, but with the club finances and the rotation as is, just don’t see it.

The owners are hanging onto a lot of things right now. Ill take the over on $214M as ultimate luxury tax figure, but the scenario you just laid out is within a few million of that. Don’t sign Tepera and you’re there. Don’t trade for Bassitt - using @Chicago White Soxexample - and you’re there. Right now, we don’t even know for sure if there will the same form a luxury tax as we know it today. I get you always look for a contrarian angle, and we all have to admit the Sox commitments are getting close to max’d and certainly at franchise highs. But there will be room for the Sox to add $25M or so to payroll still. They also probably aren’t taking back 4 non minimum guys via trade (Bassit, Kemp, Marchan and Alvarado), plus signing Tepera. That’s pipe dream imo. But if Conforto (or another RF in that $ realm for purposes of argument) is the constant, the Sox can make the $ work. They’re not just going to roll the ball out as is when the lockout ends.

That package doesn’t get Marte. Burger is soon to be 26 and not really even a prospect. Cespedes isn’t really all that exciting and isn’t that young either. Montgomery is a nice piece but not to headline a Marte deal. They’ll want Vaughn + from the Sox. More likely, Dbacks will be looking for younger prospects for Marte that the Sox don’t have. They’re a ways away. Guys like Burger and Cespedes probably won’t be of much interest to them.

Three non top 100 prospects isn’t getting you Ketel Marte.

He refuses to entertain any thought that Kimbrel is moveable. At least he’s consistent.

Good. Best realistic fit on the FA market since Grandal. Hope Sox make it happen. I’d be tickled, just as I was with Yaz.

Also relying on Adam Engel to stay healthy for any stretch of time wouks be a mistake. I like him too. He’s a perfect 4th of. But you can’t rely on him as anything more than a bench piece.