ChiSox59

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 7, 2017 -> 04:25 PM) The Astros have Keuchel, McCullers, McHugh, Fiers, Morton with Musgrove and Paulino in the wings. It's not the most overpowering rotation, but it's not a bad rotation to enter a season. And Martes. They have options.

QUOTE (Eminor3rd @ Jan 7, 2017 -> 01:12 PM) The point is that there's opportunity cost. In addition to his salary, that Sox would be "paying" the rights to a bunch of prospects in order to keep and use Quintana. In the case of the car, the student would be "paying" the difference in its current value and what it would be worth when he needed it. He "loses" the amount of depreciation. I understand what he is saying. It depends on what they can get. To me, if the best offers are Martes, Paulino, Fischer, lottery ticket type package - the opportunity cost would be minimal. You can get that deal (not literally) a year from now. We need an elite headliner on the offensive side. If the Sox were interested In another pitcher headlined package, prettty sure we'd have Glasnow right now .

QUOTE (Blackout Friday @ Jan 7, 2017 -> 01:02 PM) I think he meant the cumulative cost of keeping him until 2020 to act as a 4th starter on a competitive team. Not his single season salary. Yah, I know. It's incredibly inaccurate.

QUOTE (witesoxfan @ Jan 7, 2017 -> 12:00 PM) Dave Cameron put this best, so I am going to blatantly copy and paste what he said and then link to the chat in question. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dave-camero...aphs-chat-1417/ Cameron's comment about Q being the most expensive #4 starter in history. What is he smoking? Terribly off base with that comment.

QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Jan 7, 2017 -> 11:54 AM) Here's an interesting question: assuming Q performs the same going forward, how much would his value decline if you tried to trade him after two more years versus today? Thinking is that we don't know how prospects & other trades & roster players will pan out, and it's possible the Sox are ready to contend in year 3. Thus meaning we'd still have two years of Q! So is it worth keeping him for two more years with the knowledge you'd have the optionality of having a TOR starter? If you're not a contender you could still trade him with 2 years left. We might not be getting Q's full value for his 4 years of control. Regarding your first question, I don't think his value drops much at all over the next two years assuming no injury and no significant drop off.

QUOTE (peavy44 @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 04:44 PM) Scott merkin said astros high on tucker and wouldn't be in a deal. Then Bye Felicia.

QUOTE (peavy44 @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 04:40 PM) For Rick Hahn to get Bregman you gotta offer Quintana and Frazier for bregman and more. Hence why I said Bregman probably isn't going anywhere. Maybe Q and Frazier gets you Bregman ++, but I think the Astros arent moving him. That's why Tucker has to be available, or Luhnow can f*** off.

One thing I am certain of is that the Astros aren't getting Q without Tucker or Bregman. I see litttle reason to believe Bregman is moving so Tucker has to be in a Q deal. If not, the Astros can piss right back off.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 02:10 PM) D'oh, sorry. I wonder if we carry 5 outfielders Also wouldn't be surprised to see May or Engel at some point if Sox go full scorched earth tank job, which I doubt.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 02:06 PM) so do we have a CFer (not that coats was)? Tilson. I think Liriano can play a little CF as well, but better suited for the corners. Leury Garcia?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 01:48 PM) If he is signed to a minor league deal he isn't subject to major league waivers unless he is called up. Thanks for confirming.

Seems kind of strange. I don't know much about Garcia and will read up, but on the surface, seems like I'd rather have Coats. Hope Coats clears, and then it'd be non-issue.

Can the Sox keep him in AAA without the risk of losing him on waivers? I believe so, just confirming.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 12:42 PM) You have a very odd definition of certainty. The 2nd quote is in the portion you replied to. So you don't want to take the bet? I get you like to play devil's advocate, but you often come off as extremely negative towards Sox players. Yes, Jose has had a negative trend in his three years in the big leagues. I'd be willing to bet that his 2017 is closer to his 14/15 than his 16. Your comments would lead one to believe you think he'll continue his decline. Hence, I offered a wager. Happy to take you up on it if you reconsider and want to put a little doe behind your theories.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 10:36 AM) And from my GM chair, I look at a guy who put up a .964 OPS at age 27, a .850 OPS at 28, and a .820 OPS at 29, and say that at the current rate he'll be a .700 OPS hitter by age 33. Right now he's a league average 1b trending rapidly downwards. Every part of his game got weaker last year and every part of his game is trending downwards. You can say all you want about how he's younger, but his numbers make it look like he's aging worse than the much older guy. Turn that trend around and you become correct - his value can shoot back up because he is younger if he were to start performing again. That doesn't change what he has done the last 2 years. Again - you seem so certain Jose will not improve on his 2016 season. We'll use your preferred stat wRC+ - let's make a wager on next season. I say he improves - you say he doesn't.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 10:24 AM) wRC+ is 118 for Abreu, 113 for Napoli. Otherwise their numbers last year were comparable. Hell, their slugging %ages differ by 0.03. Mike Napoli will not get anywhere near the contract I just stated I think Abreu would get. Jose Abreu would not get anywhere near the contract Encarnacion got right now. You can't go and tell me that Jose is going to get better next year when in 3 years of baseball he's gotten worse every year. If I sign him, I'm understanding there's a substantial risk that he's a sub-.800 OPS guy next year based on his trendline. To change that story he needs to reverse that trendline. It's that simple. If he puts up a 2015-like season, then his value goes back into Encarnacion territory - Encarnacion was still a better hitter in 2016 than Abreu in 2015, but Abreu being younger would get a slight premium. If he puts up a 2016 like season, then he's a $10-$12 million a year player who you probably want to shift to DH. If he follows his own trendline then by 2018 he is a "Sunk cost". Wanna make a wager?

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 09:53 AM) Oh right, handedness not best for catchers, however the google search "narvaez switch hitting" led me to some site called futuresox: http://www.chicagonow.com/future-sox/omar-narvaez/ which says he abandoned switch hitting in 2014. Maybe I was thinking of another Sox player who had a cup of coffee last year, or maybe just recall it being mentioned on a telecast. Thanks for looking it up.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 09:59 AM) People are down on Jose because Jose Abreu was a strong disappointment last year following a slight disappointment in 2015. He had a strong second half yes but a first half where he was barely a big league player. If that was just weird statistics, then Jose Abreu is a 1b at age 30 who seems to be declining rapidly and was basically an average 1b across the entire league. If that was Abreu having physical issues in the first half of last year, then he seems to be a guy whose body is behaving like it is older than you'd expect at age 30, where physical issues are costing him production for 1/2 a season. Encarnacion's 2016 season was better than Abreu's 2015 season. If he carries forward how he hit in the 2nd half, yes that will boost his value significantly, but as of right now he's a 30 year old who has gotten worse every year and who performed a hair above Mike Napoli last year. If he were a FA today I believe he'd get more than 1 year if there was no QO attached, but I think he's looking at something in the 3/$35-$40 range based on his performance the last 2 seasons. Conveniently, that's about what he'll get paid if he's tendered a contract all 3 years. This is why he'll be on the roster next year for the White Sox - he's one of several guys who we are hoping will rebuild some value with better seasons next year. According to OPS+, he was a considerably better hitter than Napoli in 2016. Not to mention, Jose still has incredible upside in his bat, whereas a guy like Napoli may give you another season like 2016 if you're lucky, but more than likely will regress back to a .750 OPS type player because he is 5 whole years older than Jose, and his only year that has approached Abreu's average season over the past three was way back in 2011. Jose Abreu >>>>> Mike Napoli, and I like Mike Napoli.

QUOTE (Jose Abreu @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 09:43 AM) Especially given his age I don't understand why people are here are so down on Jose. The current market is not ripe for trading him, I will agree with that. But the guy is 30, has raked in his three seasons in the big leagues, has a year to year contract with no buy-out, and is set to make a measly $10.825M next year. There is a ton of value in that. Due to the current FA market being saturated with RH hitting sluggers, his trade value today isn't enormous, but if he hits anything like he did in the 2nd half last year in the 1st half of 2017, his value will be enormous. If he were a FA today, I think we would get a pretty nice deal (assuming no QO attached). Let's say 4 years and $70M. Look, the Sox aren't going to give Jose away. He is going to be on the roster next year, and he should be.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 09:37 AM) He throws righty, so I'd guess yes. I knew nothing about Narvaez before he was brought up though. Lol, all catchers throw righty....

QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 07:26 AM) Discussing Abreu's trade market is kinda pointless...because there isn't 1. I don't see any team giving up anything of real value for any 1B/DH type of player in a trade with the FA market still the way it is. If he were on the market I think he would have gotten a deal by now though. No where near Encarnacion, but I could see him getting 3 or 4 years at $13-16M per year. Disagree. I think he would be pretty close to EE.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 6, 2017 -> 09:29 AM) So if hypothetically he's platooned with Narvaez, we actually have one left handed hitting catcher and one right handed hitting catcher on the roster this time, not two righties, right? Yep. Super small sample, but Narvaez actually hit much better against LHP last year. Wasn't he switch hitter, but decided to drop batting from the right side in the majors?

Meh, I am ok with this, I guess. I would have preferred some new blood - Hanigan, Iannetta or Salty, but ultimately there weren't any good options really. Soto is fine.

QUOTE (Balta1701 @ Jan 5, 2017 -> 06:34 PM) If Jose Abreu had hit the free agent market this year he would not have signed yet. My guess is he'd get something comparable to the money he's likely to get in arbitration these 3 years as a contract - basically I think he'd get paid what he's going to be paid, except with a couple years guaranteed. I do not believe any team will give up any top 100 prospect for Jose Abreu. If he hits the daylights out of the ball in the first half and looks like 2014 Abreu he might become moveable again for a return that isn't "salary dump", but right now given the choice of signing Trumbo or Bautista or any of the other 1b/DH types, Abreu looks like he is at best fairly paid and not worth giving up any additional talent. As has already been said, I disagree with pretty much this entire post. Abreu would get paid if he were a FA. His surplus value isn't great, and the glut of 1B types on the FA market doesn't help his present value, but the Sox could definitely get some nice prospects for Jose. That said, I don't think they're looking to move him at all.

QUOTE (SoxPride18 @ Jan 5, 2017 -> 03:45 PM) I think it's relevant in this thread, but the Rays turned down a Martes, Tucker, Paulino ++ for Archer. That is crazy. Where was this reported?