ChiSox59

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 20, 2017 -> 02:23 PM) OK dont get mad were talking about baseball. Calm. 1. I would say Paulino + 2 (not necessarily lottery tickets btw) is about equal to Reed and Fisher. Paulino is the Astros consensus third best prospect, him plus two guys is probably worth about what Reed after a down year and lower-ranked Fisher are combined. Fair comparison I think, no too off base. 2. Quintana has (a) better numbers (b) throws left handed © better injury history and (d) never had a major league ERA over 4. All of that is not outdone by Archer's sexier fastball or chump-change $2m AAV or year of extra control in 2022. And when specific packages get reported by the media yes I can take some liberties with what I assume is on the table. If the Astros were willing to give up what they apparently offered Tampa they are likely coming to the White Sox with similar offers, that makes sense. There's nothing controversial about that. 3. Quintana is probably worth more than Adam Eaton also and no way does Tucker, Reed, Martes and Fisher beat the Sale deal. 4. Moncada >>> Tucker Kopech >> Martes Basabe = Diaz I am plenty calm. Just sick of reading your same BS over and over and over again. #1) This is complete and total conjecture. Reed is no longer a prospect, but if he were, he would be in their top 3. This guy was the #2 prospect behind Bregman 12 months ago and a top 20 guy in the whole game. Sure, he had a brutal cup of coffee in the majors, but his value is not nearly as far in the s***ter as you make it out to be. And again - you're making the giant leaps of assumption. "Paulino + 2 is about equal to Reed and Fischer". How can you make that determination when you have zero clue what the +2 is? They could be 19 year old rookie ballers for all we know, and since the names weren't reported, it is far safer to assume they are closer to a throw in then a top 100 prospect. #2) An extra year of control is a pretty big deal. A year ago, someone would have laughed at you had you said Q was more valuable that Archer. Archer is cheaper, controlled longer, and a far more dominating pitcher (career K/9 of 9.3 vs. 7.4). These are meaningful facts. #3) I never said Tucker, Reed, Fischer, and Martes beats the Sale deal. I said it "rivals" the Sale deal, and beats the Eaton deal. #4) LOL. Moncada is a far better prospect than Tucker, but the rest of the deal after the centerpieces, I like this made up Astros package far better. Kopech is maybe a tad better prospect that Martes, but certainly not ">>". These guys were just ranked #4 and #5 respectively on the updated RHP top 10. Its close to a wash, and while Kopech maybe has a higher upside, Martes is a safer bet and closer to the bigs. After that, the Astros deal is far better on the last 2 pieces. Your Basabe = Reed comparison made me laugh. Thanks for that. And Fischer is a legitimate OF prospect and Diaz is a complete and utter lottery ticket.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 20, 2017 -> 01:59 PM) "Absolutely nothing"? Not the fact that comparable deal for an inferior pitcher was turned down by the Rays? Might want to reconsider your words because to me there is strong indication that the Astros are willing to include almost any combination of minor league talent. The issue is Hahn is probably still pestering them over Musgrove and Bregman, because he apparently hasn't gotten the message that those guys aren't on the move. First of all - Martes+Tucker+Reed+Fischer does not equal Martes+Tucker+Paulino+ 2 absolute question marks. Paulino + 2 lottery ticket types doesn't equal Reed and Fischer. Second of all - how in god's green earth do you know how the Astros value Archer vs. Q? Archer, by the way, is controlled for an additional year at ~$2M less on AAV basis. I personally like Q more than Archer, but I am not an unbiased bystander, and until 2017, their numbers were pretty similar in the previous 3 seasons. I don't think it is too wildly farfetched to think that the Astros value Archer higher than Q, and maybe by a sizable margin. Let's not forget that Archer was the AL starter in the ASG in 2015, and to that point was widely considered one of the top RHP in the game. Furthermore, how about that rumored package that Houston turned down of Musgrove, Martes and Tucker? So they turn that down, but then replace Musgrove with Reed (a former top 20 prospect) and Tucker? C'mon man. You throw around way too many things like they're fact when you're just speculating. It is beyond annoying. Maybe RH is still trying to get Bregman - who knows? You certainly don't. So stop acting like its gospel. I think that a Martes, Tucker, Reed and Fischer package hasn't been offered, because if it had, those dudes would be White Sox. And why do I think that? Because on a player for player basis, that trade rivals the Sale deal and bests the Eaton deal, which actually happened and can be used as a legitimate basis for future deals (aka - fact).

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 20, 2017 -> 01:43 PM) The leaked Tucker-Martes-Paulino + 2 prospects offer for Archer indicates that this kind of deal is probably possible. Perhaps the inclusion of Fisher and Reed would necessitate "lowering" Martes to Paulino or Perez (personally, I think both would be an improvement) but in any case, if the Sox wanted that deal I'm fairly certain they could get it. Regarding the bolded, there is absolutely nothing out there that backs up this logic.

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 20, 2017 -> 01:28 PM) I looked at an Astros board earlier and someone suggested Martes, Tucker, Fisher, and Reed. I'd probably do that. Something like this gets closer to making sense, but there is zero indications whatsoever that something like that is on the table.

Have to wonder why the Dodgers aren't at least a little interested in Lawrie. Obviously he is nothing special, but he's better than their internal options at the moment, and likely won't cost much to acquire.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 20, 2017 -> 09:47 AM) Right now the Sox have a bad major league roster and a good-not-great farm that probably isn't good enough to elevate the major league team to success. They are doing a soft reboot, not an all out rebuild. Changing the topic for just a minute, I feel like if the Sox were going to go the bolded route, they would have actually signed some guys. They've let some pretty decent bats go off the market for dirt cheap. Colby Rasmus would have been nice on this team at $5M + incentives if they were planning to try to compete this year. The Sox would be mentioned more with the DH types on the market. They wouldn't be going into the season with Avi/Liriano at the top of the RF depth chart. They'd be looking at a guy like Hammel. At this point, I think its pretty obvious that the Sox are planning to let Melky and Frazier have a couple months to rake, move them for what they can, and then field a down to the studs starting lineup. That to me doesn't scream a team doing a half assed rebuild. Not trading Quintana prior to Feb 1 doesn't change that.

Does Alvarez have a legit shot at getting some ML PT this year?

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 20, 2017 -> 10:37 AM) It wouldn't, but people are convinced that if the Sox dont get Mike Trout for Jose Quintana its a disaster. Aren't you Mr. Hyperbole!

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 20, 2017 -> 10:25 AM) Why? Kyle Tucker's trajectory right now is the moon. Low K's, high BB, big frame that can easily fill out for big power, athletic corner OF...what dont you like? The risk? The fact that he's not high enough ranked on lists? And why would he be the only position player? You think the Astros are like "OK you only get ONE position player prospect that's IT" I dont think so. Because you just said that Musgrove + 2 top 50 prospects isn't happening. That trade is Tucker + Musgrove + Martes, which is not what the Sox need right now. And if you think THAT is too much - what in the world are you expecting? Outside of Bregman (not moving), Tucker, and Reed, the Astros position player prospects are pretty uninspiring.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 20, 2017 -> 09:59 AM) What's wrong with Kyle Tucker? Nothing is wrong with him, he is a nice piece and definitely the guy the Sox would need to have from the Astros system because Bregman isn't moving. That said, if he is the only position player prospect you receive in a Q trade, that'd be incredibly disappointing.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 20, 2017 -> 09:47 AM) My entire premise is his expectations are ridiculous and need to be lowered. Torres + Frazer + Rutherford is not happening, Musgrove + two top 50 prospects isn't happening, Bregman isn't happenng, Swanson isn't happening, Meadows + Bell isn't happening. It wont happen now, it wont happen in July, it wont happen unless Jose Quintana becomes Clayton Kershaw. Doesn't mean he cant still get a good deal. Right now the Sox have a bad major league roster and a good-not-great farm that probably isn't good enough to elevate the major league team to success. They are doing a soft reboot, not an all out rebuild. Well, if the Sox still have just a "good not great farm" that means only a few clubs in the league have great farms. Maybe thats your opinion. Look man, this has been discussed ad nauseam. Clearly you don't care to process the fact that perhaps the teams that would potentially be in the market for Quintana at his price tag (I think we both can agree this is a limited group) either doesn't have the top end talent that the Sox seek, or are unwilling to move it at this juncture. This is something that can change. Perhaps not this offseason, but sometime in the future. New top end bats will emerge. Right now, no one seems willing to move a top tier position player prospect. Kyle Friggin' Tucker is the best bat that seems to be available for Q, and even on him there have been mentions that the Astros don't want to move him. So you're left with a bunch of mid-tier guys that aren't acceptable centerpieces. I PROMISE YOU THAT THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS. The Sox have time, and they clearly are content using it. Plus, if you think a Musgrove, Martes and Tucker package is something the Sox should jump all over, we're definitely never going to agree. It's an OK package, not one that I would be very excited about if Q was the first of the three dominoes moved, but now that we have Giolito, Lopez, Kopech and Dunning in the mix in addition to the arms that were already in the Sox farm, it'd be disappointing because it's pretty obvious we need young bats. Yes - take best package and figure it out later - but clearly the focus should be on position players.

QUOTE (Con te Giolito @ Jan 20, 2017 -> 09:35 AM) Well it has to keep being repeated all the time. Yah, because clearly RH hasn't gotten an offer he wants to pull the trigger on yet. Therefore, here we are. The day he gets that offer, I assure you he'll take it. In the meantime, hold your damn horses. Trading him now for a bunch of B and C level prospects does this organization ZERO good, outside of perhaps making a top 3 pick more likely, which to me, should be significantly below hitting a home run on the Quintana trade on the priority scale.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Jan 20, 2017 -> 09:32 AM) Yes. If you aren't acquiring game changers, what's the purpose of trading him? Because Conte de Giolito and Baron want him to, damn it!

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Jan 20, 2017 -> 08:15 AM) That is exactly what I'm suggesting. That they likely have some nice offers on the table, but have specific targets (Meadows, Torres, etc) they're waiting to see if ultimately become available. Any by all means wait until spring training and see if one of those untouchables suddenly become touchable. We control THIS market and can take our time for now. But I'll keep repeating this, if one of those targets doesn't become available, don't pass up on good value right now in hopes of a perfect offer later. Nothing is promised tomorrow. If teams aren't willing to pony up in what is considered the worst free agent market for starting pitching in the history of baseball, I find it highly unlikely we'll do better at the deadline or next offseason when market conditions are less favorable. So f'in sick of this narrative.

QUOTE (TheFutureIsNear @ Jan 19, 2017 -> 05:50 PM) Only $12M per for Trumbo...crazy, 5 years ago he probably gets a contract bordering on $100M. I think it might be real tough to get anything other than a couple lotto ticket 19 year olds for Frazier and Melky if/when they do get moved. Melky, ya probably. Frazier? He can actually play a position and is better bat than Trumbo. Problem is, market for 3B is garbage right now. But I think he'll still get something decent when moved.

QUOTE (steveno89 @ Jan 19, 2017 -> 03:21 PM) If Collins can stick at catcher, the overall tools he brings make him the best catching prospect in baseball in my opinion Hit hit tool and power tool are the best of the top catching prospects by a considerable margin A passable catcher who can hit is worth gold Completely agreed, which is why the Sox will give him every opportunity to learn how to catch.

.255/.330/.475 37 HRs 28 2Bs 101 RBIs 13 SBs

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 19, 2017 -> 01:36 PM) Pipeline has begun releasing their top 10 prospects at each position for a series they do. Here is the RHP: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=rhp #3 Lucas Giolito, #4 Michael Kopech, and #10 Reynaldo Lopez Top 10 LHP Prospects: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=lhp Top 10 catchers: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=c Zack Collins is #4 Worth noting that Collins was #2 previously, but that probably has more to do with those ahead of him upping their stock, versus Collins dropping. I expect Collins to move upwards on the top 100 list.

NM

QUOTE (SoxSteve @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 11:48 PM) God i hope so. Nothing would make me happier than getting the ist pick in the draft 2 years in row and being ready to compete in 2019. In fact if doesnt happen i will be pissed. Lose and lose big the next. 2 years. Puts a smile on my face. This line of thinking cracks me. Yay - can't wait to watch my favorite baseball team win 100 games over the next two years!!! That would literally blow. I realize this is going to take some time, and the Sox are likely to suck for the next two years, but god damn it, I am going to root for them to turn this thing around quickly. Summer is much more enjoyable when you have good baseball to watch.

QUOTE (raBBit @ Jan 19, 2017 -> 09:42 AM) Straily and Gonzalez may be comparable pitchers but the trade isn't a benchmark to gauge Gonzalez's value at all. If Gonzalez had four times the control that he has the Sox would likely get 2-3x the return they'll likely get in return for him. Yes, thank you. Thats what I was getting at. Comparable pitchers - yah, maybe. Their returns wouldn't be comparable at all, which was why I responded that way to the comment saying that the Strailey trade is insight into what a potential MiGo trade may look like. Anyways...moving on.

QUOTE (soxfan2014 @ Jan 19, 2017 -> 09:27 AM) I'm not arguing that the Marlins could have added more to that package and received Q though. Marlins have no where near enough to land Q.

QUOTE (bmags @ Jan 19, 2017 -> 09:26 AM) We also didn't complete a trade for MiGo. The point is this is not any sort of benchmark for Q or top of the line pitcher. There is no way to say "oh well they gave up 3 top 15 prospects from a terrible system for a pitcher with a sudden improvement, and Q is worth...100x that. What is 100x 3 top 15 prospects from a terrible system?" "...Three. Hundred. Prospects." That's not really what you said. You said this is insight into what a possible MiGo trade would look like - and the two arent really comparable because one has 3 additional years of control.

QUOTE (SoxAce @ Jan 19, 2017 -> 08:12 AM) Can we trade them Miguel Gonzalez for Braxton Garrett please? While Migo and Stailey may appear to have had similar 2016s, one is controlled for 1 season, the other 4. Not really comparable.

QUOTE (Baron @ Jan 18, 2017 -> 06:19 PM) Has nothing to do with Christmas or getting the prospects ASAP. For me it's about overplaying his hand and having the other teams call your bluff that I'm worried about. Its hard to overplay your hand when you have such a limited group of teams involved in the discussions with the assets you'd legitimately want as a position player centerpiece. We know the names - they've been discussed at length. None of those guys are available. By all indications the "untouchables" have been just that - outside of Moncada. Quintana is the type of pitcher that is going to be in demand by all 29 teams, literally at all time, unless something drastically changes (injury, performance). Sure, the market appears to be in the such a good position that you can't pass up moving Q while the iron is hot, but RH has set the market so high, it is possible no one involved in the talks is going to match that's price right now. So that brings you to where we appear to be today. Teams offering nice packages, but nothing that makes you blush. Top tier guys being offer appear to be pitchers. Tucker perhaps the best name we've heard being available (rumored Archer offer). So it seems you, and some other people, are ok with grabbing a Tucker, Martes + or Glasgow + Newman + but to me, and I think at least a good faction of others that think that is a short sighted move. No teams involved in the discussions appear to be desperate enough, and until that happens, you hold. I've been saying this since November with regard to Q (and Sale), and to this point, our fearless leader has executed. He has said this will take time, and thankfully Q's contrast allows us that flexibility. The time will likely come. Whether its this winter or not. But right now the offers aren't there or the deal would have been made. Someone will budge. Someone will give up a sure fire talent. This is a trade that the White Sox need to hit on.