Boopa1219

Was really hoping for Adell to fall to the Sox in 2017.

I don’t mind the new scouting director being an inside hire, with the post being open for almost two months, it seems like they did some searching around the league.

You have Madrigal, who’s going to be your long term second baseman waiting in the wings. I predict that the sox will lock him up to a long term extension in spring training and he’s with the club on OD. You have Mendick who offers more position flexibility and is a cheaper option. I don’t see a a 2020 team with Yolmer on it.

Yolmer, a non tender?

I could also care less about defense for a first baseman. Yeah, I’d want a plus defender out there like Matt Olson or Evan White now or Darrick Barton ten years ago but that’s rare.

That is not a big deal

Can someone explain Skole batting over Eloy?

Collins should be called up and be given regular playing time. He’s on fire now and I don’t think he has anything left to prove at AAA

I hope Anderson, Cease, and Eloy all play well and the Sox lose

Robert leading off, with Madrigal batting ninth and this being a second leadoff hitter.

Schedule is about to become brutal. I’m expecting a lot of loses the rest of the month, which should put them back closer to having a top 5 pick

Your best hitter and the best run producer can be two separate people. You definitely shouldn’t bat your best run producer third, I don’t have the exact number but it’s in one of those links I posted but a lot of their plate appearances come with two out and no one on base.

Who ever is the best run producer should bat fourth because over the course of a 162 game season, on average the cleanup hitter gets the most plate appearances with someone in scoring position.

Back to lineup optimization. Here are some good articles to read... https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/platform/amp/2015/4/20/8452647/the-new-2-hitter-mlb https://community.fangraphs.com/where-to-bat-your-best-hitter-a-computational-analysis-part-1/ https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/38931/banjo-hitter-reimagining-2-hitter/ https://dodgers.mlblogs.com/the-evolution-of-the-2-hitter-d51c770f12d9 https://www.billjamesonline.com/stats100/ https://www.theringer.com/platform/amp/2017/3/31/16040426/2017-mlb-preview-leadoff-hitter-revolution-george-springer-kyle-schwarber-2e49f6ff7c58

Because the old school of thought says that you bat your best hitter third. The data says you best players higher up in the order. I’ll go with the data every time.

The 30 best lineups all had Madrigal batting ninth. And the 30 best lineups all had Robert leading off.

Let me grab a noose to hang myself and take a shot of cyanide first...

You bat Robert first because he’s the best hitter on the team* and you bat your best hitter first because you’re guaranteeing that he gets the most plate appearances over the course of a game but a 162 game season. *****I know his numbers are insane and other worldly but it’s the numbers that we have.*****

He loves to take the bat out of the hands of his best players

I did the same exercise but with Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal taking the places of Jon Jay and Yolmer Sanchez. I used their minor league stats and averaged them across leagues but I didn’t use Madrigal’s numbers from AAA since it’s such a small sample size. The difference is huge. With them in the lineup, the best lineup scores 5.73 runs per game. That’s a little over a full run per game. The best lineup is: Robert, Moncada, McCann, Abreu, Anderson, Eloy, Garcia, Castillo and Madrigal.

Because I can’t stand Renteria and his awful lineups, I put the Sox main regulars through a lineup optimizer online to see what their best line ups are using SLG % and wOBA The best lineup at 4.678 runs per game is Moncada, Anderson, Jay, Abreu, McCann, Eloy, Garcia, Castillo and Sanchez. Moncada and Anderson are pretty interchangeable as the computer really likes those two guys leading off. The computer doesn’t put speed in account but Id like to Anderson batting leadoff with Moncada behind him. This optimizer also gives you the 30 best lineups and the 30 worst lineups. In 16 of those 30 worst lineups, Anderson is batting seventh. Can someone explain to me why Anderson is batting seventh? If I can get these lineups on a free website, certainly the Sox have the same data.

You can buy that extra year with an extension

Sox can get as high as 4, maybe even 3.

I think Madrigal signs an extension, I don’t see Robert signing on. He just got $26M to sign with them, an extension would have to be big for him to sign.

Give him a month in AAA and then call him up in September, so he can get the ball rolling on 2020. Same with Robert.