Or if the risk pays off, you are starting with your number 2 guy in the ALCS. Running 2,3 on the road, 4,1,2 at home, then 3,1 on the road. Which would mean Giolito in Tampa twice, Lynn and Rodon in the games you need them most and a totally rested Cease for Game 3 at home.
Yeah it could backfire and it's not about having a low level of confidence in #4, it's about getting your potential CY Young winner and Rodon out when you need them the most.