Jose Abreu

It was the wrist injury all along!

Nick Madrigal just homered! #positivity

That won't be the last HR Moncada hits tonight.

But 111 is better than what we've gotten from RF, and 110 is better than what we've gotten from Yolmer. Plus Machado is a defense-first player whose defense has been elite. I still believe he outperforms that AAV.

From what I remember, you did prefer Harper to Machado but also preferred neither, if given the choice. Correct me if I'm wrong though

Just copy and paste the link and it does it automatically, no need for embed code. (I entered https://twitter.com/jeff_feyerer/status/1132688123215929344 originally)

Yet you didn't want Bryce Harper. I still don't understand that

The idea is that he'd know before the draft that we're gonna offer him an overslot deal, so other teams would know that he isn't interested in signing with them. Kind of like Steele Walker last year.

I'm not as familiar with slot allocations but if Hinds is projected as a late 1st rounder and the Sox draft Abrams as opposed to Vaughn/Rutschman, we may have ~$2-3 million extra that we could offer Hinds that could effectively make it like another 1st round selection.

If we get Abrams, we could conceivably overslot him

I saw the Hinds tidbit too. He's exactly the kind of player the Sox should be targeting in the 2nd.

Abreu's career wRC+ is 133 and he has never put up a wRC+ of 110 or worse over a full season. Not sure if that's what you were going for, or if you're just projecting what you think he'll be at in a couple years

I like McCann, but just saying

Eloy

The TV crew? They’ve been awful all year, also not a surprise

Not surprised to see it getting picked up by national media and whatnot too. I really don’t get the attendance obsession. In the 70s, sure. Today, not so much

Definitely thought Dozier got that one.

Yeah that made little sense. Unless he’s still not fully healthy or something? But then again neither is Leury

bummer

TA7

In addition to the point made by @Two-Gun Pete, which I agree with (batting your worst hitter in the cleanup spot [Castillo] and your 2nd or 3rd best hitter in the 7th spot [Anderson] alone likely puts the lineup in the lower half with respect to optimization), the issue with his lineups is also more than just scoring runs. To me, the constant placement of Anderson in the #7 spot is awful because it minimizes his plate appearances and gives him fewer opportunities to continue to develop. I would rather he bat #1 or #2 every game. The difference between batting 7th and batting 1st, for example, is about 83 plate appearances per year, so it's actually pretty significant and not just nitpicking. If we can't see Collins or Mendick, then I would prefer to see this most days, regardless of whether the opposing starter is a RHP or LHP: 1. Anderson (R) 2. Moncada (S) 3. Jimenez (R) 4. Abreu (R) 5. McCann (R) 6. Alonso (L) 7. Garcia (S) 8. Sanchez/Rondon (S/R) 9. Tilson (L)

Yes, and I agree that the increase in May strikeouts is the main factor in his lower output. He is clearly not producing as well as he was in April, even with normalized luck, as you outlined. However, the reversal of luck is still playing a role in his splits. I believe in his development and his contact profile, so I think that after the next few seasons, including this one, he'll be closer to the April (.945) version than the May (~.700) version. Taking that literally, I guess I'm basically saying that I still expect an OPS greater than or equal to .8225 this season, which would be a tremendous improvement over last season.

I know the pick will almost certainly be one of Abrams/Vaughn but I wouldn't mind Lodolo at all. He would provide some much needed stability to our SP depth, and his left handedness is a plus. I feel very strongly that he'll be an MLB quality starter, it's just a matter of him ascending from a #3-4 type to a TOR guy. I'm the one who wrote this preview by the way

Actually, the reason his production both was and is sustainable has nothing to do with people being hypocritical about SSS. It's because his BABIP and xwOBA/wOBA ratio normalized pretty early on. In fact, Moncada has been unlucky per his xwOBA/wOBA ratio (.370/.353). It isn't "regression to the mean" when someone is regressing further from the mean. While he has been striking out more in May, these metrics suggest that his batted ball luck has also decreased, below their expected levels.