TheFutureIsNear

QUOTE (SouthSideSale @ Nov 11, 2015 -> 10:29 AM) Doesn't the home run derby tend to mess up guys? There's an argument to be made that it can affect a guys swing for a couple months afterwards, sure. But to think that there is any long term affect is stupid. Ortiz, Prince, Cano, Cespedes, Cespedes...the last 5 winners before Frazier. Would you pass on any of those guys?

QUOTE (GreenSox @ Nov 11, 2015 -> 09:07 AM) 2nd half OPS around .650 Really stilted home/road splits 2 years of control No way should we trade 2 of our best prospects for that Why do people insist on using Frazier's bad 2nd 1/2 as some huge point not to acquire him? Like I'm supposed to disregard 4 1/2 years of .784 OPS hitting from a guy who is 29 just because he had a bad couple of months playing meaningless baseball for a crappy team? Just a really bad argument.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Nov 10, 2015 -> 06:02 PM) Now that you mention it, I think I read something during the deadline that the Astros are very high on Reed so leaving him out was probably a smart move since they are likely not to include him in any trade. For me, Joe Musgrove is the arm I would want back in a trade with the Astros. Big, big man that knows how to get GB outs. Would love to get him somehow. JD Davis is interesting as well. Big arm for 3B and plenty of power,although he K's quite a bit too. Call me crazy but I'd take a chance on Singleton as a throw in from the Astros. After enduring Dunn and now LaRoche, why not, lol. Good call on Singleton, completely forgot about him. He'd definitely be worth a shot as a 3rd/4th piece in a package. And while we are the topic of forgotten prospects...is Jonathan Villar not worth a shot at SS? I know he has Game changing speed but not sure how well his bat would fare over a full season or what his glove is like.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Nov 10, 2015 -> 05:00 PM) Good research on your part and I'm glad to see you mention Musgrove who fits the profile the sox would like in a pitcher.Only player you missed was AJ Reed, a big power hitting 1B that I'm sure the Sox would desire. Nice job. Thanks. I didn't list Reed because the Astros have no real 1st baseman and I figured they won't trade him. He's a monster though, I would gladly take him in a package lol. I tried to list the guys that make sense for them to try and move. Which is pretty impressive when none of those guys (including Reed) are in their top 4 prospects.

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Nov 10, 2015 -> 04:43 PM) I bet the Cardinals could use Q now that Lynn is on the shelf for all of 2016. The package would have to start with Stephen Piscotty IMO. He's going to be a star. I just don't see the Cardinals giving up a big package of prospects for 1 player...just not their style. They'll just find another guy out of nowhere to do great for them. They seem to do it every year without making big splashes.

Moving on...Let's talk about the Astros and the abundance of talent that we could use. Some guys I could see them giving up that interest me.... OF- Preston Tucker- Probably never going to be an all-star but he was a very successful college player and has a .294/.363/.503 triple slash in the minors since '12 and hit 13 HR's and a .734 OPS in his 1st 320 PA's in the majors. 25 year old LH corner OF with a little experience at 1B as well LJ Hoes- Another guy that has some flaws and probably won't ever be great, but he's another 25 year old who was a fairly high pick who has extended success in the high minors....299/.388/.399 over 1300 PA's in AAA. Above average speed with 26 steals in AAA this year. Has played all 3 OF positions after being converted from a 2B earl in his career. Derek Fisher- Comp round pick in '14 after leading Virginia to the CWS. Has a very smooth left handed swing that should carry him, but also has + speed. Slashed .275/.364 /.483 with 22 home runs this year in his 1st full season of pro ball across A and A+ INF- Colin Moran(3B)- Former 6th overall pick that Miami curiously traded. His power still hasn't showed up but he keeps making good contact and getting on base. .306/.381/.459 at AA this year. JD Davis(3B)- 3rd round pick in '14 as a 2 way player out of Cal State Fulerton. Astros made him a hitter and he's settled in nicely as a 3B hitting .289/.370/.520 with 26 HR's in A+. Great athlete with a real nice swing that should have no problem translating at any level Pitchers- Michael Feliz- Failed a drug test coming out of the DR and the Astros scooped him up and he's been great ever since. Saw some inning in the majors this year after dominating in the minors. A 6'4 225 lb righty with a fastball in the mid 90's and a power slider. Joe Musgrove- Another big righty at 6'5 255 with a mid 90's fastball. 1.88 across 100 minor league innings this year ending in AA. So yeah, how do we get a package going from the Astros? They could definitely use Q after Kazmir walks....Tucker, Moran, Feliz, and fisher for Q? Maybe too much to ask for?

I was thinking Q to the Blue Jays if he does get traded with the package starting at Pompey. The Jays can't possibly move away from Pillar in CF and they already have Revere under control in LF for 2 more years so makes sense for them to use Pompey as a trade chip while they are in World Series mode. Not too sure about the rest of their farm system though. Pentecost is a nice C prospect from the 1st round a couple years ago, but missed the entire year with shoulder surgery.

Seeing these contract predictions makes my hope Hahn is ready and willing to deal this offseason. We have young MLB ready talent to deal in Micah, Avi, Montas, Beck...get creative with those guys to get some sort of impact 3B. I wouldn't hate Rasmus, Aoki or Parra in the OF, but it's coming pretty apparent to me that filling the infield is going to come from within or trade.

I'm genuinely shocked. Thought for sure the FO would make the wrong decision of picking up the option. Now please just let him walk all together unless he takes a 1 year $5M deal(which I doubt)

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Oct 31, 2015 -> 07:12 PM) Why is Frazier unrealistic? You really don't think we have the chips to land him? I think his second half and limited control will bring down to his cost to a somewhat reasonable (won't be cheap by any means though). I get the argument that Gordon is unrealistic, but not when you're saying you'd rather spend the money he'd get on multiple free agent targets for the same amount of money. The payroll may or may not be a problem, way too early to say with any certainty. Gordon and Frazier would make about $28M combined in my scenario, which we should be able to afford with a moderate payroll increase (to about $135M). If not, there are some guys we could move to clear some space. So again, I'll ask you what's so unrealistic about adding these guys. Go ahead and question if it's the best use of resources, but I don't see why it's a ridiculous proposal. Sure Frazier could happen if we really wanted to. Signing 1 Gordon, Upton, Heyward? Nope, I really don't give it much a percentage of happening. Maybe 5%, maybe. The chances of both happening? 0%. The payroll won't be 135, nor will any of the big 3 be interested in coming to the white sox with the other offers that will be available. If we are getting a big bat Hahn will have to be creative with a trade package, I truly believe that. And even then I don't see us getting much more than a Todd Frazier type of bat. We'll see what happens though. Trust me, I'll have no problem eating crow if Frazier and Gordon are wearing a sox uni next year

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Oct 31, 2015 -> 04:59 PM) I think Kendrick gets $10M+ easy and I'm not sure those other guys are really upgrades over what we have already (Trayce in RF, Saladino at 3B). IMO, signing B & C tier free agents is a dangerous game as they have much less room to regress and still be productive players. We saw this ourselves with Melky & LaRoche last year. Also, I'd rather have Upton over Gordon due to the age difference, but Alex is a tremendous all-around player with a great track record in the AL. He'd be a significant upgrade over Avi while taking some pressure off Abreu. Under no circumstance do I think Gordon alone makes us a playoff team, but add him or one of the other elite free agent OFs and trade for a good 3B (Frazier perhaps) and this team suddenly becomes very interesting, especially if you think some of the other position players can rebound/grow next year. I'm trying to list realistic options...you're shooting for the moon. Of course id love for us to get Gordon and Frazier too, but it's just not going to happen unfortunately.

Robertson, Jones, Duke, Petricka are fine. We need a strong 2nd lefty to use before the 8th and we also need to add 1 reliable vet righty. But really I'm not too worried about the pen overall. I'd like to see guys like Yona, Turner, Beck, and possibly even Montas compete for a spot in spring too

QUOTE (Chicago White Sox @ Oct 31, 2015 -> 03:08 PM) Say Gordon gets $20M per year. Which two free agents would you rather sign for that money? Not sure that $20M goes as far as you think. Howie Kendrick to start at 2B for 8 or 9 mil per + Garrardo Parra, Austin Jackson, Ah-Seop Son, Jon Jaso, David Freese.... And depending on which guys you go with you might be able to get a good 2nd lefty for the pen too. I honestly do not see Alex Gordon as the bat this offense needs to get over the hump. If we were to sign him and no other major additions I still don't see us as a playoff team

I really wanted Adam Lind...that would be looking pretty good right now too

He's a nice piece to have on any team obviously but I'm not sure he's the big contract bat we need for this lineup. The $90+Mil he's likely to get is a break the budget move that may or may not even make us a playoff team in my opinion. I'd rather sign 2 starting position players for the $ Gordon will get

QUOTE (SCCWS @ Oct 31, 2015 -> 09:27 AM) You don't want to trade Micah but where are you going to play him???. He did "rake" when he was sent down but he went down because of his defense. His defense at Charlotte was not any better which is 2 seasons at AAA he has struggled defensively. I just think an organization that was decent at developing talent would have found a way to use Micah by now. If we aren't going to figure it out and use him then maybe we should trade him at this point....I just hope its not just for the sake of trading him because they don't know what to do with him or how to develop him.

QUOTE (GREEDY @ Oct 30, 2015 -> 05:27 PM) How valuable are our prospects? I've been reading everyone's "plans" for this offseason and almost every post includes shipping off 3-5 of our top 10 prospects for a superstar player (Frazier, Longoria, Arenadolol etc). The first time I read that we/people/whomever are skeptical that Anderson can stick at SS, I was like "Trade him now", but plenty of teams don't even need a SS, and the ones that do ALSO KNOW he might not stick at short. The Sox have as big of a hole as any team in baseball at 2B (and I like Sanchez), and the majority of White Sox Internet Nation are ready to give up on Micah... but then they package him up in pretend trades and expect actual value in return. I don't get it. I'd like to put a realistic, in-depth offseason plan together but I'm not sure I can just throw together "all of the prospects I don't need for this exercise" together and turn that into Todd Frazier.... thoughts? Considering the fact that it was his 1st season and he was hitting reasonably well when sent down...and then raked in AAA. I don't see how Micah's value is low by any means. A guy with an elite speed tool who has shown the ability to hit at every level is an asset. Obviously I'm not saying he's an elite prospect or trade chip by any means, but I think he's a pretty darn good 2nd piece in a deal. Personally, I don't really want to trade Micah unless it gets us an impact bat. Frankie Montas is a top 60 prospect in all of baseball as a starting pitcher with a plus fastball. That's a lot of value, and a Montas + Micah + 1 of our B level prospects is a good package in my opinion that would at least be a very good start to the conversation for a guy like Frazier imo. But of course no where near enough to get a guy like Arenado. Our B level prospects that I could see being traded that I think have some varying degrees of value: Jacob May, Tyler Danish, Chris Beck, Jacob Peters, Jordan Guerrero I also think there are teams that would have no problem taking on Avi. I've seen people talk about him like he's more or less worthless. He's still only 24, he's far from a lost cause and I'm sure there are gm's/scouts that still drool over his potential. I'm sure our track record for developing hitters is no secret and someone would take a shot at "fixing" him.

I want no parts of a big Wieters contract. He's got disaster written all over him. If he's not an everyday catcher he's a very average bat at a high cost and expecting him to be an everyday catcher into the 3rd and 4th years of a contract is unrealistic in my opinion.

QUOTE (ChiSox59 @ Oct 29, 2015 -> 05:25 PM) I was thinking that the other day, regarding Utley. Not sure I'd prefer him over Sanchez, but he could be a decent option on the cheap. What is his D like these days? Not good, but not as bad as you'd expect for his age. He's can play 1B too and the Dodgers even somehow had him at 3B some(I live right outside of philly so I've seen him a ton). I wouldn't hate Utley on a 1 year deal, but he'd have to be a late "final piece" kind of signing after some bigger moves happened.

Just throwing it out there, but any interest in Jedd Gyorko if the Padres wanted to get out of his contract cheap? Since they seem to perpetually never have a 1B a Laroche + B level prospect for Gyorko trade make any sense?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 28, 2015 -> 04:16 PM) The guy has hit 50 homers in back to back seasons. No one has ever done that. Plus with power being at a premium around MLB, this guy will get paid. 300 K's in the past 2 seasons to go along with 50+ HR's is a little scary though....but I agree he will get paid. Probably not quite what Abreu got but something like 4 years $40M wouldn't surprise me at all. Obviously there is always the fear that he'll be a complete bust, but the middle ground of him having 20-30 HR power with the ability to hit better than .250/.330 is still plenty worth $10 million a year in the present free agent market. With all that said, I don't see us going after a 1b/dh type

QUOTE (beautox @ Oct 27, 2015 -> 05:27 AM) I've been thinking a lot this post season since my last offseason plan and this is what i think is both realistic and likely, looking forward to some spirited conversation with regards to this post. Last year the sox were 1st in the AL in fWAR for starting pitching(4th overall) and 7th for relieving(16th overall) total pitching the sox were 3rd in the AL(9th overall), and dead last for hitting. Seeing how around 40WAR got you into the post season this year and how at the all star break we were still in it, there is hope to be had. I would tender contracts to all ARB eligible players: Flowers, Garcia, Jones, Putnam & Jennings. Next I would decline Ramirez's option and pay the 1M buy out. With the free agents to be I would QO Samardzija, knowing he is going to decline, re-sign geovany soto for 2 years 6M and let Albers who was solid for us walk and beckham to never be heard from again. I think a certain subset of our fanbase would be very excited if we brought back the following players and if they're useful why not. Sign Mark Buehrle for 6.5M provided hes healthy and wants to play one more year. Sign AJ Pierzynski to a two year 7M deal with a 500k buy out. Lastly i would sign Steve Pearce to a 4M deal possibly with an additional option. I would look to make the following trades: C Tyler Flowers to Seattle for SS Brad Miller - Hahn has actively been trying to upgrade this spot for quite some time and the mariners are desperate for catching help since Zunino hasn't panned out. By installing Flowers as their catcher that is a swing of 1.2WAR, -.8 to .4WAR. Miller in the outfield has been a disaster for the M's and he isn't going to supplant Cano or Marte. Miller is a slighty above average defender at SS and 2B and can out produce Alexei for 1/20th of the cost. RHP Erik Johnson, OF Avisail Garcia & RHP Spencer Adams for 3B Martin Prado & OF Marcell Ozuna - Miami need young cheap pitching Johnson provides that and Loria has consistently shown a propensity for not wanting to pay anyone more than league minimum, taking all of Prado's salary and their outspoken outfielder in Ozuna solves some of their issues while giving them a lottery ticket in Avisail to play in left and a promising young arm in Adams in addition to 11M freed up to pay someone like Juan Uribe this offseason. Loria is on record saying he would trade Ozuna and Ozuna has had a down year in addition to being upset about how his major league service has been handled. LHP John Danks + 6M, 2B Micah Johnson & OF Courtney Hawkins for RHP Braden Shipley, LHP Cody Reed & UT Phil Gosselin - John Danks would've ranked second in fWAR and innings pitched on the d-backs staff, they've got some great young arms coming up but they need an inning eating stalwart to break their staff in. Johnson replaces Chris Owings at second base while fitting into their aggressive strategy on the base paths (2nd in SB overall in the league) and Hawkins is a change of scenery candidate going to a system that has had a lot of success in developing young hitters. Shipley appears to be a possible 3/4 on a staff in a year and a half, possibly two, Reed has a lot of potential but has issues with conditioning and is a long way away and Gosselin is a solid utility player. 1B Adam LaRoche for RHP Jonathan Papelbon. This is a bad contract / "cancer" swap, both are FAs after '16. LaRoche goes back to a place where he has had modest success backing up the oft injured Zimmerman and providing a left handed bat off the bench. The nats rid themselves of Papelbon and the sox get a high leverage reliever with a chip on his shoulder. Payroll comes in at approximately at $115.46M; thats including Alexei's buy out, dead money from Bonifacio & Peavy and the 6M sent along with Danks to Arizona. Less than the $118.8 from last year. Some believe the sox payroll can reach 130M, put me in that camp as well but the only long shot FA I would remotely pursue would be Jason Heyward and additional veteran 5th and 6th starter types to store at AAA in case of emergency or if Montas falls on his face. I firmly believe that Thompson has the possibility to be like Brandon Crawford and Randal Grichuk; a tools player made good on said tools even with mediocre minor league results. Moving Eaton and cementing Trayce in centerfield while adding Ozuna and relegating melky to DH and 5th outfielder drastically improves the defense; the amount that Cabrera, Eaton and Garcia gave away out there is sickening. The fact that the sox had the best starting pitching by fWAR in the AL is a testament to the staffs ability and why maybe we shouldn't be moving any of them and should be supplementing them with better defense across the diamond. Moving Cabrera who was -15 in defense to DH(-17.5) full time would barely be a decrease in his value at this point. Miller provides the sox with at the very least a utility man and bridge to Anderson with the potential for a solid regular to replace Sanchez if he falters. Understandably a lot of people are skeptical of Carlos Sanchez, but he is only 23 years old and a switch hitter. The fact that he had even modest success at the major league level in the second half should be very telling, the organization loves his glove and his bat should come along. Young hitters take a while, it is even more pronounced in switch hitters especially power. Carlos could be a fixture for the sox for a long time to come and I would like to see the sox give him a very long leash. This is some back of the napkin math and I look forward to hearing what others think with regards to what realistic expectations for WAR could be going into next year and defensive rating(this will be very crude and simple). DH - Melky - 1-1.5 WAR, if he is capable of producing his second half the sox will be in fine shape at DH. Defensively D- C - AJ & Geo - 1.5-2.5 WAR and C defensively I think we're looking at average and in the same area as Grandal and Lucroy and slightly above Flowers himself. 1B - Abreu - 4 WAR somewhere between his first and second full year and inline with his second half. D- defensively but luckily in this offseason plan we've got Steve Pearce to back him up late in the game and provide pop off the bench. 2B - Sanchez - 1.5-2WAR this him just duplicating his second half of the season and growing. A- Defensively SS - Miller - 1.5-2WAR putting him back at shortstop and a change of scenery could do him wonders. B- Defensively. 3B - Prado - 2.5-3WAR leaving him at 3B along with a wRC+ of 100 would do wonders for this team, in addition to coming to a more hitter friendly ballpark. A+ Defensively. LF - Eaton - 3.5-5WAR by moving him to left field his defense plays up we could be looking at an Alex Gordon like player if his second half is a precursor. Defensively in CF C- in LF B-. CF - Thompson - 2-3WAR I stand by why I think Trayce makes the step forward. Defensively A. RF - Ozuna - 1.5-3WAR a change of scenery could be what he needs to get back to the promise he previously showed. B Defensively. SP - Sale - 6-8WAR if ever there was a Kershaw clone we're blessed to have him on the team. SP - Quintana - 4.5-6WAR Continues to do a better impression of Andy Pettitte link. SP - Buehrle - 1.5-2WAR if he is willing and healthy no reason to think he wouldn't be a great addition to this team and give a certain segment of fans something to be excited about, plus he can retire a white sox at the end of the year. SP - Rodon - 2-4WAR I personally believe he reduces his BB/9 closer to league average and takes off and never looks back SP - Montas - 1.5-2WAR another young arm that will need to reduce his BB/9 to be successful, last year he threw just shy of 130IP I think the sox push him to the 150-160 mark. Bench Sans Geo (Saladino, Pearce & Gosselin) - 1.5-2WAR first time in a long time its a younger athletic bench that should offer some interesting traits offensively. Bullpen - 3-4.5WAR there is potential upside with Jones, Papelbon, Duke and even Robertson. On the low end this team looks like its capable of producing 39WAR right on the cusp of the playoffs and with plenty of money to spend midseason on acquisitions one way or another, with some maturation(Sanchez, Thompson, Ozuna & Montas) and possible break outs(Eaton, Quintana & Rodon) the sox could be in the thick of it. I don't hate your final product at all...I just think we'd be getting ripped off on the Miami trade though. Adams and Johnson is too much for Ozuna and 1 year of Prado imo. I'd much rather have 2 talented SP's locked up for a long time. I also don't think Miller can hit any better than Sanchez or Saladino can, so while Flowers is a pretty small price to pay, I'm not sure Miller brings anything to this team. And just no to Papelbon, maybe if we were desperate for relief help, but no thanks at this time. Very well thought out and obviously well done though, I'm jealous of the visuals lol. Also, didn't Buehrle already announce his retirement?

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ Oct 26, 2015 -> 02:16 PM) Kang went from .356/.459/.739/1.198 with 40 homers and 117 RBI in 501 PA in his last year in Korea to .287/.355/.461/.816 in the US in 467 PA's. Just eyeballing, his US AVE and OBP stats were about 80% of what they were in Korea. His power number dropped off even more, at about 60% of OPS. Kang hit homers at less than half the pace he did in Korea. His doubles pace was also much lower. If that were to happen for this guy, he'd be looking at hitting about .265 with an OBP of .325 and an OPS around .525. Taking into account that his OPS couldn't fall that low with those BA and OBP's, he is probably looking at an OPS of around .650 to .700 on the high end, when you look at how low his power numbers were in Korea, and taking a decent cut out of them as well. His career highs for homers is 18, and only 28 for doubles. If he takes a hit like Kang, we are looking at around 10 homers, and 20 to 25 doubles, I would guess. Tyler Saladino put up a .602 OPS at 3B in his cup of coffee here, for perspectives sake. The only problem is that you are cherry picking an outlier career year for Kang. His 6 year totals are no where near the .359/.459 you used, nor would it be the 80% decline you're talking about. Aside from Kang's monster 2014 Son was consistently a better hitter for average and on base percentage than Kang was in Korea. Power I will give you though, it is fair to assume a significant drop off in power

Turns 28 this upcoming ST. Lefty who hit .330/.406/.472 over the past 6 seasons in Korea. Averaging 12 HR's and 16 steals over those 6 years as well. With Kang's success for the Pirates this year I don't expect Son to go nearly as under the radar as Kang did out of Korea. These guys are professional hitters. After Kang I've read that Son's contract could get into the 20 millions over 4 years, but to me that is a small price to pay for a guy who could potentially hit .300 with good on base skills and hopefully above average D(haven't read anything about his D). Anybody else think taking a gamble on him could pay off as a relatively cheap way to fill an OF hole for an extended period of time?

My plan would be a Sanchez/Saladino platoon at SS after declining Alexei for $10M. I think they would bring better D and similar offensive output for a fraction of the price. If we want another big bat in this lineup these are the kind of business decisions the franchise will have to make.