steveno89

QUOTE (bmags @ May 22, 2017 -> 09:12 AM) If a college bat randomly fell into INTL signing rules I think we'd be surprised how much they get. His tempering wasn't that Robert is garbage, but was at the very least making a distinct line from Moncada, who is incredibly special. Not every prospect will be #1 in baseball. Depends on the college bat. Do I think Pavin Smith would get $25 million? I highly doubt it.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ May 21, 2017 -> 10:44 PM) Yeah, it won't be for another Holland, Shields or Miguel Gonzalez, it will be cases like Pelfrey where we're paying almost nothing. And, for the moment, it seems like the veteran money might go into either catcher or the bullpen...although it would seem they have plenty of young arms to throw at the wall (right now) and determine which ones are going to stick. The only thing that could change this timeline would be if MOST of their youngsters excelled in the second half and they looked like the 2014 Royals at the end of the season, or 2015 Astros/Cubs...ahead of their competitiveness windowl. With the struggles of Giolito and Fulmer (last start), it's hard to imagine the young starting pitchers ALL doing well. We might be lucky if 1/3 (AAA prospects) has an ERA under 4. Then again, Kopech seems like the one who could really come up and dominate from the get go, if they do bring him up this August/September. From everything you read though, it seems they want him to spend the entire year in AA/AAA. Kopech needs alot more time in the minors before the Sox should even think about calling him up. He has only thrown 177 professional innings in his career so far, and has to work on cutting down on the walks. Nationals really are in a tough spot because they do not want to deal any more significant prospects after the Eaton deal.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ May 22, 2017 -> 08:13 AM) Luis Robert is...well, let's say he's worth 2 WAR in his first MLB season, either next year or 2019, then an average of 4 WAR over each of his following 5 seasons. (I would estimate this as his 50th percentile outcome.) That's 22 WAR in total, or roughly $200,000,000 worth of value during his cost-controlled years. And the White Sox would pay around $50-60M total during the arbitration years, plus of course the ~$45M to sign him yesterday. So if Luis Robert is a 2-4-4-4-4-4 WAR player, the Sox, give or take a buck or two, will pay $100M for $200M worth of production. And if Robert turns into Matt Holliday with better defense & baserunning (in other words, prime Andrew McCutchen), then his value becomes more like $300,000,000 to $350,000,000. And this is not a pipe dream; it's more like his 85th to 90th percentile outcome. That would be nice to have. Molina lacks the potential for a bargain, but offers much more certainty due to tangible and intangible defensive and leadership contributions. Luis Robert offers the potential for a spectacular player for the indefinite future. I cannot stress this enough -- Luis Robert has more positives and fewer negatives than pretty much every other minor leaguer in every other organization. He's obviously a safer prospect than any pitcher. He has better plate discipline and general athleticism than Eloy Jimenez. He is distinctly bigger and stronger than Victor Robles and Ronald Acuna. He's a better defender and baserunner than Austin Meadows and has much, much more batting potential than Amed Rosario or J.P. Crawford. There is an argument to be made, and I'll make it in half a moment, that Luis Robert is now the #1 overall prospect in baseball. When evaluating elite prospects, you look for the red flags. Chunky physique, poor plate discipline, general excess of arrogance rather than a sturdy self-confidence, difficulty staying healthy, not young enough relative to levels of competition, shaky work ethic. Luis Robert has none of these troubling traits. By all appearances he's a humble, hard-working kid with a great health history and a track record of dominating older players in international competition over and over and over, since he was 14 years old. In short, he's the Cuban Bryce Harper, but without the swelled head or demented Pete Rose-worshipping father. Luis Robert is the investment you make. http://www.scout.com/mlb/cardinals/forums/...321&page=17 Would there have been a chunk of risk involved in signing Luis Robert? Of course! Every large contract comes with risks. After all, how much value has Adam Wainwright provided since the start of 2015? Perhaps 2-3 WAR, and most of that with his bat? So everything, even so-called safe contracts for established MLB veterans, involves some risk. But holy moly, the difference here is the upside with this kid. How much upside? Here's a quick comparison of Cuban Ciego de Avila teammates. In 2015 23-yr-old Jose Adolis Garcia batted .319/.399/.523 and was MVP of the league. In 2016 19-yr-old Luis Robert batted .401/.526/.687. And lest you assume that the league batting radically changed from one year to the next, here's a detail. In 2015 there were 20 hitters who exceeded a .900 OPS. The next year there were 20 batters who exceeded a .925 OPS. Barely statistically significant, if at all. Luis Robert is a guy -- if he stays healthy and enjoys merely a typical improvement curve over the next 4-5 years -- who could well be prime Matt Holliday, only with better defense and baserunning. At worst you're getting Hunter Pence Redux. And even that type of player would be well worth a $70-80M outlay, including all those fees and penalties. (And yes I meant to rhyme that. Mo hasn't completely destroyed all the poetry in my soul. Heaven knows he's been trying though.) Great day for the White Sox. Bad day in multiple ways for our local nine, not least of which due to Mo's (now ongoing) mis-valuation of where to make the largest investments. (And how exactly would that nearly $200M David Price contract be working out right now?) Prime Matt Holliday with better defense and base running is a very legitimate MVP candidate. I like Robert alot, but it's unfair to put that level of expectation on a player. Scouting grades for Robert: Hit: 55 | Power: 60 | Run: 70 | Arm: 50 | Field: 55 That is a very good, FV 60 grade player right there, possibly even higher grade with any improvement. Too soon to say whether he will reach this lofty ceiling or not, but I'm glad the Sox are the organization that gets to find out.

QUOTE (hi8is @ May 21, 2017 -> 12:44 PM) Pretty cool way of circumventing rules and telephoning in intentions for the fan base to decipher I sneakily suspect that the White Sox had a commitment and agreement with Robert all along, arguably since last summer. They intentionally did not sign any other big international free agents. Food for thought.

QUOTE (caulfield12 @ May 21, 2017 -> 12:38 PM) Soto's the one they are willing to trade because he likely ends up a LFer. Less projected value. Pretty sure we all would do Robertson for Soto straight up

QUOTE (fathom @ May 20, 2017 -> 07:01 PM) I agree, I don't think he was ever going to be a high avg hitter. I do think he won't rise much in rankings though by those that scout the stat line Collins has also homered 4 times in his last 8 games, so he very well could be heading up at the plate

QUOTE (SoxAce @ May 20, 2017 -> 06:48 PM) He only has 4 less hits than last season in the same number of at bats.. almost identical numbers as I pointed out in the game thread yesterday. He'll be fine. Collins stock is actually up in my book because of the improvement he had seen defensively at the catcher position. He still had a ways to go, but he is getting better each day and showing signs he can stick behind the plate where he is far more valuable.

QUOTE (southsider2k5 @ May 20, 2017 -> 04:22 PM) Next period is now officially worthless to the White Sox. We will still probably sign some long shot international prospects, but Robert is worth going into the penalty box for

QUOTE (bmags @ May 20, 2017 -> 04:13 PM) This. It's 100% to save some tax money from the Robert signing. Meh, $750k it's 750k Wish it were for next period

QUOTE (fathom @ May 20, 2017 -> 04:03 PM) This joke is too easy. Goldberg....you're next Does the bonus space acquired count towards this signing period, or the next signing period?

QUOTE (chitownsportsfan @ May 20, 2017 -> 03:03 PM) Avi possibly turning into a solid ever day player and Robertson dominating have also been positive. Honestly this rebuild is going awesome so far. Giolito is only one guy among many promising pitching prospects. On the balance even if he never pans out others should. Sox need to build same depth position player wise. Add in a quality priest at #11 overall next month and we are well on our way into this rebuild. I have to give the front office credit for working hard to turn this around quickly.

QUOTE (hi8is @ May 20, 2017 -> 02:19 PM) #2 or #3 25 - 30m in penalties and banned for 2 years from more than 300k signings I'd put Robert as our #3 overall prospect right now, but overall he's likely a top 15 overall MLB prospect and fv 60 grade player.

QUOTE (JPN366 @ May 20, 2017 -> 02:57 PM) I was totally on the Dayan Viciedo train, having watched him in person and meeting him in 2009. I hope this isn't another Dayan Viciedo. Robert is far more strict than viciedo and projects to be a quality defensive player. He had 70 grade speed making him able to play center field, as well as develop into a significant base stealing hreat. This is a great day for White Sox fans

Lets all celebrate, Luis Robert is ours!!!!! Well done front office and ownership for luring the big fish we needed so badly

QUOTE (DirtySox @ May 18, 2017 -> 11:06 AM) New BA mock. Sox get Faedo. Hasely to DBacks at 7. http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/mock-...raft/?amphtml=1 This mock is pretty much worst case scenario for the White Sox in my opinion Haseley, Beck, Baz, Gore, Smith all taken before them Adell's hit tool is too questionable to draft in the top 15 Of all the tools to be below average, hit tool is the one that is a pretty big dagger for me. Scouting reports suggest that he still has struggles with high school level breaking balls, which gives me pause and seriously question what would happen vs. minor league professional pitching? Maybe he figures it out and becomes a star, but their is risk that he doesn't make enough contact to make it out of A+/AA ball (see Courtney Hawkins)

QUOTE (reiks12 @ May 17, 2017 -> 05:20 PM) Astros fans on reddit saying their top 5 prospects are clearly off the table if they go after Cole. I can't think of a dumber fanbase Fans always overvalue their own prospects and assume they will all reach their lofty projections when most do not. If a prospect ends up as a solid mlb regular that is a huge win in most cases. Houston has a very good farm system, with talent at the top as well as depth at the bottom. They absolutely have the prospects to go out and swing multiple trades if decide they need to add talent.

QUOTE (maxjusttyped @ May 18, 2017 -> 08:49 AM) Do people think the Sox would have taken Benintendi? Fulmer felt like such an obvious White Sox pick at the time. Sox would have selected Benintendi over Fulmer

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ May 17, 2017 -> 05:07 PM) The Pirates have had it rough so far and I doubt it gets better for them. Huntington seems to have played his cards right by not going crazy to get Q last winter. Was hoping Pitt could compete until the deadline to keep them in the mix for Q and Cole off the trade market but that's not looking good. Worse yet, I can totally see the Yanks getting after Cole. The Pirates farm could get a nice boost this summer. Pirates might be closer to selling than buying at this point. Glasnow has been a disaster so far, and Meadows does not appear close to mlb ready with the bat just yet.

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ May 17, 2017 -> 10:25 AM) The scary part is all of the posters who apparently think they know more about prospects than the White Sox, yet want the White Sox to go into a total rebuild. When dealing such young players there will always be an element of risk because you just do not know how those players will pan out. The chances a player like Tatis Jr. never makes the majors are much much much higher than that of him breaking out into an everyday player.

QUOTE (Jake @ May 17, 2017 -> 08:08 AM) Yolmer probably isn't this good, but he's also not as bad as his previous years' performances would suggest. It will be tricky to find him at-bats once Moncada is up. 24 game sample size is too small to make any sort of determination about Sanchez More than likely this is a hot streak, although his defense has been very good as well. He's probably a utility player moving forward, although with the potential to be a quality one.

QUOTE (Dunt @ May 16, 2017 -> 03:34 PM) Minor league career statline: Yoan Moncada .294/.396/.484/.880 Ian Happ .275/.362/.472/.834 Not taking anything away from Happ, but Moncada is undoubtedly the better prospect out of the two at this point Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 55 | Run: 65 | Arm: 60 | Field: 50 | Overall: 65 = Moncada Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Run: 55 | Arm: 55 | Field: 45 | Overall: 55 = Happ Happ is further along in his development at the plate, but Moncada has near plus plus speed and projects as at least average or better defensively with a strong arm. Moncada could arguably play 2B/3B/OF for the White Sox. Happ is not a very good in the infield, and is likely destined to end up in left field. I like him, but he's not without shortcomings.

QUOTE (shipps @ May 16, 2017 -> 02:26 PM) So let me get this straight. Everyone wants the Cubs three best prospects in return and are a no on Schwarber? I did not say no Schwarber, I mean no Schwarber straight up for Quintana. I would prefer a Happ/Jimenez/Candelario package, but I don't see the Cubs cleaning out their minor league system to that level

QUOTE (Wanne @ May 16, 2017 -> 02:37 PM) Personally a guy I like from the Nats is Stevenson...he could man CF for me any day. Stevenson to me is a 4th outfielder at the major league level. He's a quality defender, with solid speed, but his bat offers ZERO power and and his hit tool is average. I'd much rather have Kieboom or Soto. Stevenson's career minor league .706 scares the heck out of me when translating to the next level. I view him as a slightly better Charlie Tilson.

QUOTE (Soha @ May 16, 2017 -> 11:14 AM) I agree with this, though to me that makes him a better off-season trade candidate. On another note - did you all see the Daily Herald is proposing a Quintana for Schwarber straight up trade? http://www.dailyherald.com/sports/20170515...a-for-schwarber The Sports Mockery garbage proposal of Schwarber straight up for Quintana would be an awful trade for the White Sox. Schwarber alone has nowhere near the value of 3 1/2 seasons of a proven Jose Quintana. I'd want prospects like Happ/Jimenez/Candelario in return, but I don't really see a deal coming together I'm not saying he won't become a good player, but so far Schwarber is the most overrated player in major league baseball in my opinion. He offers zero defensive value moving forward and his .656 OPS this season (small sample size, I know) isn't exactly an impact bat. I'd need sigificantly more than him before I trade a proven starter on a cheap contract

QUOTE (GermanSock @ May 14, 2017 -> 06:44 AM) Longenhagen said the draft is very weak on hitters and some of the best hitters might be drafted as pitchers (McKay, greene). Maybe you don't get as good of a hitter as usually at 11 and they should consider another pitcher? I doubt Rooker lasts until #49 overall with the year he is having. Deichmann is not quite as good as Rooker, but has a similar power profile that should be available in the second round