steveno89

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Feb 4, 2017 -> 06:42 PM) Keller is projected for an '18 debut and Whitley/Perez for '19. Is one year that big if a deal? Rebuilding is not just about building the next contender but a perennial contender for years to come. That means the Sox need to keep the young talent flowing upwards to the big League club. Another aspect to my desire for Whitley and/or Perez is taking pitching that is not as advanced as Martes and Paulino allows the Sox to target more advanced hitters in discussions with Houston. Just so happens that Houston prefers to keep its near ready pitching and have hitters available due to their backlog in the OF and 1B. Something along the lines of Tucker, Whitley, Fisher and Laureano. That's two top 50's, a top 100 and a flier which should put the package value somewhere between the Sale and Eaton trades. Whitley looks good, but his eta is 2020 at best. I don't mind him in a package, but the sox are looking for talent closer to the majors I think

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Feb 4, 2017 -> 12:24 PM) Just a matter of preference. Whitley's plus FB can cut or run, has a plus CB, a CU that flashes plus, an average slider and has average control. His deep repertoire is what really hooks me since its a five pitch arsenal. Also like his big frame too. There's nothing wrong with Keller and I'd love to have him but if I had a choice it would be Whitley. Whitley is talented, but also is at least four years away from the majors at this point. That needs to be considered

QUOTE (bucket-of-suck @ Feb 3, 2017 -> 11:12 PM) Wow. Keller's ceiling is much more projectable and much higher than Whitley or Perez at this point. In fact, it's higher than most pitching prospects in the minors right now. I'd rather have Keller than Whitley, but Perez could skyrocket up the top 100. An 18 year old pitching well in A ball is impressive for sure.

QUOTE (Joshua Strong @ Feb 3, 2017 -> 03:55 PM) I have been banging the Perez drum for a while, he is a must to me in any deal with Houston. I think we will have the type of helium that Kopech has now next year, he reminds of me Jose Fernandez. I'd love to get Franklin Perez from Houston I think they like him alot though

QUOTE (Dick Allen @ Feb 3, 2017 -> 02:37 PM) Chances of that player being any good are pretty slim. That's why I say, take one of their lesser prospects who you like. You really are lucky if you get 2 or 3 guys who contribute in a draft. People are really excited about the White Sox 2016 draft and they should be. The guys looked great. But when it's all said and done, a couple or more of the guys people are high on will wonder how high they were when they like the player. Courtney Hawkins was going to be a star. Then he hit .178 striking out at a ridiculous rate and still, "he's young for the level". Finally, he sucks. The same thing happens year after year to every team. I think a guy who has been playing against professional competition is easier to project. That's why, even though it really won't happen anyway, I wouldn't take the draft pick if I could if I was making the deal. Give me the player someone already spent $800k or more on, and spent more developing. Exactly, it takes years to evaluate a draft year. In a given year if 1 or 2 of those players make the major league roster it has to be considered a success.

QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Feb 3, 2017 -> 02:19 PM) Once Jose Quintana is traded, Carlos Rodon becomes the new White Sox ace. Via @MLBBruceLevine: https://t.co/9IauEyIFyR https://t.co/06gupqojBD https://twitter.com/670TheScore/status/827610379123642368 Bruce is saying again that some source are saying that Quintana will be traded before camp opens We have not had any indication that talks have advanced or that any deal for Quintana is close Offers have been exchanged, but neither the Pirates or Astros are blinking as of yet The Rangers rumor appeared to be a White Sox generated leak to stir the pot

QUOTE (WhiteSoxLifer @ Feb 3, 2017 -> 02:19 PM) Once Jose Quintana is traded, Carlos Rodon becomes the new White Sox ace. Via @MLBBruceLevine: https://t.co/9IauEyIFyR https://t.co/06gupqojBD https://twitter.com/670TheScore/status/827610379123642368 Bruce is saying again that some source are saying that Quintana will be traded before camp opens We have not had any indication that talks have advanced or that any deal for Quintana is close Offers have been exchanged, but neither the Pirates or Astros are blinking as of yet The Rangers rumor appeared to be a White Sox generated leak to stir the pot

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Feb 3, 2017 -> 02:16 PM) Tucker is just as far away as Whitley and Perez so should we leave Tucker out of the deal as well? Should we have not traded for Basabe, Dunning and Diaz because they haven't played above A ball? Also, Kopech isn't expected to be ready until 2019. He needs that time to build up his innings because he is behind due to his two set backs ( fight/PED suspension. The Sox have Giolito, Fulmer and Lopez at Charlotte. Kopech, Guerrero, Adams and Stephens at Birmingham. Whitley and Perez would be great additions to Hansen and Dunning in A ball. Think of them in waves. 1St wave is Giolito, Lopez and Fulmer. 2ND wave is Kopech, Stephens, Adams and Guerrero. 3rd wave is Hansen, Dunning, Whitley and Perez. That's pretty good balance from A-AAA and those waves would come over the next three years. Given the depth of the Sox pitching I would rather take a few really young pitchers (Whitley/Perez) so the trade can focus on getting close to major league ready hitting such as Reed and Fisher. I actually disagree on that point. I could definitely see Tucker moving up quickly through the minors and getting called up towards the end of 2018 or early 2019 if he continues to progress Perez and Whitley are at least 3 full seasons away from the majors, if not more

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 03:15 PM) I feel the same way. If Rodon comes close to his ceiling he will absolutely go to FA and Boris isn't known for signing extensions with his most talented clients so IMHO that's out of the question. This could be one reason why the Sox are trying to load up on pitching. Here's the way things could go down over the next few year's and what I could be the Sox approach. The Sox get their haul for Q which will likely add another high ceiling starting pitching prospect. Add that prospect to the list of Giolito, Lopez, Fulmer, Kopech, Hansen and that's alot of talent with some high ceilings. Each of those pitchers comes with a question mark or two but I think Giolito and Lopez stick as starters, Fulmer and Kopech are more of the wait and see approach. With the Sox rebuilding they give Hansen the chance to determine his own fate and not force anything. That said, I feel Hansen moves quickly over the next few years with, IMHO, potential to become a high end pitching prospect similar to what Glasnow is now. I think Hansen sticks as a starter when the time comes. I do admit I'm rather high on him . The variable in all this is the starting pitching prospect from the Q deal so it's hard to guess anything other than the Sox clearly desire another top starting pitching prospect. If things work out I think it's quite possible the Sox look to move Rodon during the '18/'19 off season for a haul that could replenish the farm or for MLB position player(s) to fill in a gap or two in the starting lineup. Both are nice options to have. Just a reminder that this is all best case scenario and could certainly turn out differently. The Sox good history with pitching leads me to think things will work out for the better and not the worse. It's early to speculate on Rodon seeing is that he is under team control for 5 more seasons. If he is pitching well and the team is ready to contend then we absolutely will keep him around. We could shop him, but I think the Sox want to get back to contending sooner, rather than later

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Feb 3, 2017 -> 01:56 PM) Exactly. Sox pick at #11 ($3, 998,900), #49 ($1,325, 800), #87 ($606, 100). If the Sox got the 75th pick ($730,800) and went over their bonus pool to the maximum allowed, they could sign a $2 million player at #49 if they want. The pick could be a final sweetener, but I'd rather have a quality prospect in a 3-4 player deal

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Feb 3, 2017 -> 12:33 PM) To be honest, I don't need Martes to make a deal happen. I'm to the point I prefer trying to acquire bith Whitley and Perez in place of Martes. I would shoot for Tucker, Whitley, Fisher, Perez and Stubbs. Imo, the value of that package should sit between the Sale and Eaton packages. Three top 100's and two fliers would be a nice little haul for Q. Whitley and Perez certainly have upside, but each are a considerable distance away from the major leagues, which has to be a consideration Guys like Moncada, Giolito, Lopez, Collins, Fulmer, Hansen, Dunning, Burdi are not more than two years away from the majors. We need to make sure that we balance the rebuild so that we are firing on all cylinders when ready to compete again. I doubt Houston would part with 5 players for Q. I see any deal being 3-4 players at the end of the day

QUOTE (fathom @ Feb 3, 2017 -> 08:52 AM) That would be a bad trade. Need one more piece like Reed or Perez. Agreed. I would not be pleased with that return for four years of Quintana Martes + Tucker is a must to headline any potential Q, but the next pieces would have to include a significant piece along the lines of Reed/Fisher/Paulino/Perez I like Laureano, but the offensive jet stream that is A Lancaster really inflates stats I don't think a Martes + Tucker + Laureano + 75th pick is a better package than Glasnow + Keller + Newman + Diaz (which I feel is still light)

QUOTE (Rowand44 @ Feb 2, 2017 -> 01:53 PM) .200, 1 homer, 2 rbi's. spot on

QUOTE (beautox @ Feb 2, 2017 -> 08:30 AM) I'm on a similar page Martes/Tucker/Reed/Stubbs/Laureano and we close the book on it and ship Jennings with Q as Tony Sipp is the only LHP in their BP right now ,he of the near -1WAR last year. Tucker/Laureano/Basabe/Call/Fisher make for exciting outfield prospects to follow. Additionally maybe one of Tilson/Liriano/W. Garcia show something at the major league level. Even if we want to move Quintana before the season, we absolutely should not settle for a lesser package Quintana is our final blue chip trade piece and it is imperative that we use him to his fullest value to aid our rebuild. Every piece we can acquire matters.

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Feb 1, 2017 -> 06:45 PM) The Sox tanking the '17 season to be in position to draft Beer ( ha ha ) in '18 makes much more sense of the JAMES SHIELDS trade. Sheer genius! A healthy JAMES SHIELDS could easily give the Sox a -10 WUR ( Wins Under Replacement) which should translate to 20 losses easily. This means that JAMES SHIELDS is the Sox Harry Potter in their quest for Beer! f***-An-A!!! Luken Baker is an excellent 2018 draft prospect as well

QUOTE (ChiliIrishHammock24 @ Feb 1, 2017 -> 01:39 AM) No, no, that's WAY light, IMO. I would go for Alford, Urena, Tellez, McGuire. Look at the Ken Giles trade, Astros traded two top 100 prospects, plus their 2nd RD pick that year, plus another arm. Jones could be very valuable at the deadline, as could Robertson Hard to gauge their values right now

QUOTE (BlackSox13 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 04:05 PM) Works for me too. I wouldn't object to Caratini as a fourth piece either. I think Happ, Jimenez , Candelario plus one of Martinez/Caratini is pretty reasonable for both sides. I could care less who we trade Q to if it means we are getting the best package in return, even if that comes from the Cubs A high profile deal like this is unlikely because if it goes wrong one team will have regret for years Quintana could make sense for the Cubs due to the 4 years and relatively low cost because it would allow them to still spend on free agents moving forward Replacing Arrieta (potentially and Lackey after this season is not going to be cheap. The Cubs window is right now before all their young guys get more expensive after hitting their arbitration years. The Sox would want at least one interesting arm to go along with Jimenez, Happ and Candelario, but it would add Quintana without subtracting from the mlb roster at all

QUOTE (NCsoxfan @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 01:23 PM) It sickens me that we are having to trade Q/Sale to get top 100 prospects and we traded a top 100 prospect in Tatis Jr. for James freaking Shields Tatis Jr has not proven anything yet, you can relax

QUOTE (pablo @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 12:46 PM) Agree with you in that a depth package can open the bidding to just about every team, but for most teams it would be at the expense of losing all their depth. In looking at Keith Law's top 10 farm systems (which ironically doesn't include the Astros), 5 of the systems would likely have no interest in Quintana or have shown no interest - Padres, Dodgers, Brewers, Mets, Reds. The remaining 4 teams - Braves, Yankees, Pirates, Rockies - have all been mentioned as teams that are possible destination. If you take my or raBBit's suggested depth package, the 4 remaining interested suitors likely could beat the Astros if they tried hard, but quite possible they don't offer as much. Maybe instead they offer one to two premium prospects in which the Sox would then have to decide between a star package or a depth package. My point being is the suggested depth packages do not necessarily affect what we have already discussed in these threads as the interested teams likely remain the same. It might change the interested teams Texas could be involved with a depth package, as could the Braves A Tucker headed depth package could be pretty easily beaten by another ballclub The reason no trade has happened yet is that the Sox are firm on the asking price, as they should continue to be. Hahn did say a deal was close on Christmas Eve, but fell through. Likely the result of the Yankees backing out of a three team deal involving the Pirates

QUOTE (Fantl916 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 10:06 AM) he does paint a picture that i've thought for the last month or so... if for some reason Fulmer and Lopez end up in the bullpen we could back into a pretty amazing bullpen situation similar to the yankees/royals/indians of the past couple years. Burdi, Fulmer, Lopez in the 7th, 8th, 9th would be pretty sick. he also has pretty glowing comments on Curbelo and Dunning. havent seen these kind of positive comments about our depth in some time. He seems pretty high on Stephens saying he could be a fourth starter, but has a pretty good chance of becoming a 5th starter

QUOTE (pablo @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 11:44 AM) That's a done deal for me as well. Depending on how confident the Sox scouts are on Franklin Perez, I would take him instead of Paulino. Tucker, Perez, Fisher, Laureano/Stubbs and the 75th pick. It makes sense from the Astros perspective as well. They have tremendous OF depth in their system for essentially one OF spot in the big leagues with Springer and Reddick there for the foreseeable future. Additionally, they keep Musgrove, Martes and Paulino who are their two closest arms to the big leagues and could help in a playoff push this season. Teoscar Hernandez is ready to step into the OF in case someone goes down. From the Sox side, adding Martes or Paulino would be nice, don't get me wrong. But with Rodon, Giolito, Lopez, Fulmer, Kopech, Hansen etc, it makes sense to add a young projectible SP that could be in the next wave after these guys. And again, depending on how much the Sox scouts like him. The main issue with taking a package like that is that we essentially would be lowering the pricetag significantly for Quintana. If we would accept a depth package then over half the league should very much be in on him. Those are all nice prospects, but each come with some serious question marks. I am hesitant to deal a top 20 mlb starter on such a valuable contract for 4-5 "maybes". Our system needs depth for sure, but I'd rather acquire 3 very high caliber prospects than 4 good prospects and a draft pick We would be banking heavily on Tucker to reach his ceiling, and if he does not I'm not sure the rest of the package is enough to overcome that Quintana is a trade piece that can acquire a nearly untouchable prospect or two, and we should be looking for players that have potential allstar upside in return for him. Not just organizational depth

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 10:37 AM) So after all that you agree with what I posted initially. Martes + Tucker + 3rd piece + 75th pick. Only if the 3rd piece is of the AJ Reed or Franklin Perez caliber The draft pick does not do all that much for me. The chances a player pans out a #75 overall are probably about 5-10% chance at best

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 08:34 AM) That's 3 top 100 guys and Reed who was like a consensus top 30 last year. No chance they trade that much. I think the Sox should get somewhere between what Sale and Eaton returned, and neither Martes or Tucker are anywhere near the prospect Moncada is Kopech is roughly equal to the prospect value of Martes, possibly slightly more valuable at this point Moncada + Kopech > Martes + Tucker considerably. That means a third piece would have to be a significant prospect along the lines of Reed or Perez A 4th piece could be a lower level flyer Martes + Tucker + Reed/Perez + lower level flyer starts to move towards a deal

QUOTE (Y2JImmy0 @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 08:19 AM) No. That's the Cardinals actual 2nd rounder. From a surplus value standpoint, Quintana is worth roughly $133 million over the next 4 seasons Using fangraphs prospect surplus value as one way (not the only for sure) to evaluate prospect values Martes comes in at $39.00 million and Tucker comes in at $38.2 million for a total of $77 million. We are short easily 62 million in surplus value to make a deal happen I'd propose Martes + Tucker + Reed + Perez. Astros probably wouldn't do it, but it allows them to keep Paulino/Musgrove/Whitley/Fisher in their system

QUOTE (ChiSoxFanMike @ Jan 31, 2017 -> 07:59 AM) Unless the 3rd piece is good, I'm not too fond of this offer. I think the Sox could do better. The 75th overall pick is a complete crapshoot and nowhere near as valuable as a competitive balance pick right after the first round I would decline a Martes, Tucker + 75th overall pick in a heartbeat on a surplus argument alone How do the Sox go from reportedly asking for Musgrove + Martes + Tucker to accepting the 75th overall pick instead of Musgrove?? Massive value difference there